You can measure the beginning of spring from any number of starting points. But those who wisely refuse to wait for the equinox or last outfielder to book their flight will mark it February 19 this year. That's the voluntary report date for pitchers, catchers and an oft-overlooked third class of early bird: the injured player. They already have the disabled list, so we're not going to start calling mid-February the Festival of Injured Players Report.

Now that we're inside of two weeks before the ceremonial opening of Spring Training, it's worth giving the class list for major league camp a once-over. Although my research could be shoddy, I don't think I've seen this anywhere else.

I've coded the invites into four groups:

Italic, Bold and Red - locks to make the Opening Day roster, barring injury or trade

Red, Bold, plain text - Likely to make it

Red plain text - Bubble players

Black plain text - Little or no chance

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All told, there are 21 spots that seem 100% locked-up to me. On a standard modern NL roster, that's 10 of 12 pitchers, 6 of 6 infielders, 4 of 5 outfielders and 1 of 2 catchers - though the team looks poised to carry only four outfielders by adding Francisco. And it could possibly carry one less pitcher for the first week of the season or so.

WilsonValdez and Devin Mesoraco should probably go ahead and be #22 and 23, but I see some possibility (however remote) of a surprise move displacing them. In all likelihood, however, there are only two spots up for grabs if everyone stays healthy. And those spots are probably in the bullpen. They are also only slightly more open than Mesoraco's claim to the Ramon Hernandez Chair for Cooperative Catching - which is to say: nearly closed.

Logan Ondrusek and Sam LeCure have earned their spots in the 'pen, but it's not impossible that the Reds choose (unwisely) to use LeCure for starting pitching depth or that Logan's health and/or a strong showing in Spring by a pitcher like Josh Judy lands 'seks back in Louisville.

Full oster after the jump.

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What's the difference between these defending World Series champions and the Cincinnati Reds?  Or put a different way: Can we get there from here? The hopes of Reds Country - and the opinions of quite a few prominent baseball analysts - say our team is on the rise. Rightly or not, comparisons have been drawn between last year's Reds and the 2007 Phillies (a team that went 89-73 and bowed out in the divisional series after being swept by the Rockies).  That edition of the Phils, while owing their MVP first baseman a lot of money for the first time, kicked off their active streak of four straight playoff berths.

It's not wise to look beyond the next game, nor beyond the 2011 NL Central. But it's also impossible not to. With a taste of the playoffs last season, every Reds fan with a moderate command of office jargon is thinking "Next Steps." I don't pretend to know how the injuries, regressions and progressions will break this year, but I think the depth is there for this team to have a few more stabs at a deep playoff run. The experts seem, sometimes grudgingly, to agree.

According to John Fay, Sam LeCure is being stretched out for possible use in the rotation. In light of Leake's struggles, idle speculation has turned into a very real opportunity for LeCure. And if LeCure's in the running, Maloney oughta be too. Willis is still nominally being considered for the 'pen, so it would stand to reason that either he or Maloney (not both) would be in the running to be a potential third lefty there. Loser of the multi-front war on not having a fifth starter could end up the swingman in the 'pen or #1 starter in Louisville. In any case, it's nice to have options.

It's been a recurrent theme throughout the spring, but short of the Cueto injury, the pitching woes need to simply slide on. Last season in Arizona featured mediocre-to-miserable springs by the likes of Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto and Jordan Smith. Around the Cactus League this season, witness 4.00+ ERAs from the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Jonathan Broxton and Hiroki Kuroda,

That's why they invented the thick-aired, Valley Fever-immune, stat-countin' Regular Season. I, for one, am looking forward to some regularity. And I mean that in the least scatological way possible.

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It may horrify you to know that Edinson Volquez, O.D.P., is the owner of an 11.47 spring ERA. While the ERA may be pure noise, and the run environment in Arizona has been bonkers, there's some cause for concern over how little tune-up the Wagon has gotten against major leaguers (4.2 IP) with just 6 days left until Baseballmas. The seven walks in 4.2 IP is no picnic either, but at least Volquez is missing some bats (5 K). In the spring before his 2008 All Star season, Volquez struck out a whopping 19 batsmen in 13 IP, but also allowed allowed an equal number of baserunners. The difference, then vs. now, is that only 3 runners reached by the base on balls (and one HBP). So while we generally gloss over balls in play during spring training, it's hard to ignore the wildness.

As Volquez sets out on his first full season after Tommy John surgery, he not only has an assured spot in the rotation, he's at the top of the order. The Golden Rubber. The Magnificent Mound. The Aaron Harang Chair for Pitching Before Anyone Else. This level of job security allows pitchers to work on things, something his predecessor Aaron Harang was often credited with doing during the spring. But what would provide some peace of mind, even if Volquez gets hit hard today, is reaching his pitch count and hitting his spots. A series of early exits by starters in the early-going of 2011 could be taxing on the bullpen. And we may not be able to expect the same resilience as we saw in 2010, in which the first starter win was delayed until April 22.

Young starting pitchers can be slow starters. They can be erratic - and sometimes easily rattled. This staff has all the potential it had at the end of last season. It's going to be frustrating, but fun, seeing them put it together.

UPDATE:  Rolen and Hernandez were both scratched with elbow issues. Hernandez was been battling a sore one in his throwing arm and Rolen was hit by a pitch yesterday. The replacement of Rolen by Valaika - and announcement that Francisco will be tried in the OF again this season - raises the possibility that C-Val, not Fraizer or Francisco, could be the most immediate successor during any of the almost-inevitable Rolen DL trips this year.

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Here's an intriguing question - at least as far as questions about bench spots go. Do the Reds decide to take only 11 pitchers, bringing Chris Valaika Northeast with the big league club for a spell? It's pretty unlikely. But he's still around and hitting well. In other news, Ramon Hernandez is scheduled to start tomorrow. With a little luck, the spring attrition won't creep any further.

The Rangers should really play fair and make Tommy Hunter swing the bat. Everything conspires to make our starters look bad out in the desert. But if anyone's going to buck that trend this spring, it'll be Travis "Avis Tries Harder Than Wood" Wood.

Go Reds! Here's hoping they're ready to rumble soon, and not crumble nor stumble.

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To put it charitably, performances this spring by those bubble players with a legitimate chance to break camp with the team have been uneven - though the shape of the bubble itself has been a moving target. Fred Lewis - whose spot seemed relatively secure coming into camp - may have played himself into the bubble, while Mike Leake was a bubble player who made the rotation in the wake of Cueto's injury, but has pitched as though he's curious what it's like to slum it in the minor leagues. Then there's Dontrelle Willis. And Jared Burton. And Sam Lecure.

John Fay brought to our attention the Arizona Factor, which was mentioned also last spring during the inaugural season at Goodyear. Dusty Baker lists "lighter air affecting breaking balls," harder infields and clear skies that "make it harder to read flyballs" as its ravages. The run environments in Arizona vs. Florida would seem to bear this out. Still, the team is going to have to weigh the relative performances on the field - along with, hopefully, a look at the Man in Full - to figure out who gets the remaining spots on the Opening Day roster.

In order to make sense out of the senseless, here's my quick and dirty, lumped-together power ranking of the Battle for the Final Three (Four?) Spots.

Assumptions:

1. There are only three spots in play right now (two bullpen, one bench OR, less likely: two bench, one bullpen), though Mike Leake's spot in the rotation could be precarious with another shelling in his final spring start
2. Logan Ondrusek has made the team, leaving only 2 (possibly one) spot left in the bullpen
3. Chris Heisey has made the team, leaving one opening on the bench (most likely a left-handed outfielder)

1. Mike Leake

Roster spot: 5th starter

Why he's in: He's already by tagged to make the start on April 9 (against the Diamondbacks) and has been stretching out as a starter all spring. While baseball is certainly an art of "What have you done for me lately," Leake was the ace of the first 1/3 of 2010.

Why he's not: Arizona effect notwithstanding (Leake did pitch in Arizona for three years before coming to Cincinnati) Leake's pitched terribly this spring, even walking more hitters than usual. And he hasn't been terribly effective since last year's All Star Break. He's never visited the minor leagues, so he could stand to at least get a tune-up down there.

2. Matt Maloney

Roster spot: Long reliever, 5th starter

Why he's in: He's pitched pretty well this spring, striking out 9 in 12 innings. The inevitable "career minor leaguer" tag gets unfairly thrown at Maloney, despite the fact that he's acquitted himself well in 9 big league spot starts. His minor league resume suggests, at least, a serviceable 5th starter.

Why he's not: Maloney's gotten 12 innings (Bailey is at 13.2), but he hasn't been leading off games and stretching out the same way the starters have. So he's really only in the conversation to be a long reliever. Willis seems to have had more favor in that role most of the spring. And with the rotation shuffling, the Reds may want to have Maloney starting, just a call away in Louisville.

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Spring is winding down and the batteries need recharging. The ailments of the starting pitchers have been well-documented, including Bronson Arroyo's bout with an especially virulent "Inquisition" strain of what may well be the Spanish flu. But the catchers are hurting too. Hanigan was out with a hand thing Monday and Hernandez has been shelved with pain in his throwing elbow. He's able to swing the bat without pain and is set DH in a minor league game today, so there's no talk of missing the start of the season yet. But Dusty could be forced to dial down his playing time to preserve him.

Reds.com is marketing this one as a bullpen showcase, pitting Dontrelle Willis, Matt Maloney and Sam LeCure - who will pitch behind Bailey - in a race for those last bullpen spots. Throw Jared Burton in there and that's the remaining field. While Mike Leake has done little to inspire confidence that he's ready to rejoin the rotation, all signs point to LeCure and Maloney remaining on the bullpen track and Leake on a collision course for a start against the Diamondbacks on April 9. Leake is not at all a surprising choice to be named fifth starter. But he also hasn't strung together two effective outings in a row since last summer. Control and downward movement are crucial to Leake's attack and he just doesn't seem to have either right now.

Homer Bailey is looking to stretch out some more in preparation for a start that, as a result of Arroyo's health, is due fall on Opening Night/Game Two against the Brewers. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis and Jeremy Hermida - both of whom all of a sudden may be competing against each other for a bench spot - arein the lineup today.

I'm in the mood for a masterful pitching performance. Or at least one where the pitch count is reached sometime after the 3rd inning.

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It doesn't rain in deserts. That's probably the first thing I learned about science. And yet we missed baseball yesterday like the deserts miss the rain. After the washout, we're presented with a rare and interesting controlled experiment. This is basically the same starting eight as yesterday, with two subtle differences. First, Hanigan is swapped back in for Mesoraco, after he was scratched late for complications from a foul tip. More importantly, Bruce and Gomes switch places in the order. With the lefty Breslow on the mound, Gomes is moved moved into the fifth spot that Bruce occupied yesterday.

It's not clear how much is attributable to Dusty's faith in Gomes against lefties - which is well-founded - versus his lack of faith in Bruce against lefties.  Bruce has struggled against lefties over the whole of his major league career -  batting a paltry .230/.312/.407 in 447 PAs. But most of that was growing pains. Those splits were obliterated last year, with JB actually slugging a better clip against left-handed pitching - .277/.352/.547 - than right: .283/.353/.469.

A similar evening-out of the platoon-splits happened when Bruce cruised through the high minors in 2007. While it's not worth losing any sleep over #5 vs. #6 in the order, Bruce deserves to get as many PAs this season as possible. What might be harder to sit with is that this flip-flop of Gomes to the #6 spot against righties, rather than flip-flopping another bat into the lineup, is Dusty's strategy for dealing with what normally calls for a platoon.

With Johnny Cueto officially starting the season on the DL, Mike Leake has secured his place in rotation, though the ordering at least seems tentative. Two solid starts to close out the spring would go along way to instill confidence in both Leake himself and all of us big fans of his early stuff.

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Dismal conditions at the ballpark today - at least by Goodyear, AZ standards - so we'll see if they get this one in or not.

UPDATE: So dismal, in fact, they just couldn't bring themselves to play today.

But don't let the pathetic fallacy get to you. Here's some relatively good news about Johnny Cueto to brighten your day: he doesn't have a catastrophic injury. In fact, it's being described as an "inflammation" (a vague term sometimes used for phantom DL purposes) and the Reds are currently expecting a short recovery. Cuts have also come down. Depending on who you favor, this could be good, bad or indifferent. Dave Sappelt is still hanging tough.

A rotation has also been announced: Voquez, Bailey, Arroyo, Wood and then Leake.

Meanwhile, Arroyo has the flu and was scratched in favor of Scott Carroll. Deservedly or not, Scott Carroll made his biggest splash in national news when he tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended fifty games in 2008. Like Volquez, he was booked for a non-steroid substance used to stimulate testosterone levels. It's no fun casting aspersions or moralizing over, but since he's not on the 40-man, that's the lede for now. Since the ban, Carroll has put up respectable numbers, spending most of last season at AA Carolina.

Everyone in the front of the rotation seems to be going through some kind of issue. Cueto: Shoulder. Volquez: plate in-adhesion. Arroyo: Influenza. So the back-end guys will be called upon to come to the fore. Here's hoping for a pleasant and injury-free win. And listen to your actuaries - if it's raining, maybe better not risk it.

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