Video of "The Slide"

As easy as it is sometimes to brush aside the celebrated importance veteran experience, Hairston's masterfully evasive slide last night that nicked the very bottom point of the plate - and tied the game - was the work of a hard nosed professional who's been around the game. I've longed to break down and write a sentence like that. As long as I'm down here: He's a gritty gamer who plays the game right and his gameface is always on when it's gameday. Felt good.

I've had a weakness for journeymen utility players for as long as I've been a fan. They can't be outright  scrubs who are on the team out of some misbegotten notion of leadership or as a favor to the manager. These are players that, for at least a season, combine position flexibility, experience and watchability with a something of a late-career surge which makes the eminently root-able.  Miguel Cairo is the latest incarnation. With a squint, they begin to look like consummate ballplayers - building their career across every professional league in affiliated baseball over more than a decade and capable of thriving at any position. Disruptions in the aging curve aren't mean to last, but they remind us that the back of the baseball card isn't always fatalistic.

Like Cairo, Hairston also seems to lack the cynicism that might creep in over the years - possibly because they've learned the art of delayed gratification, saving a reserve of enthusiasm some players may spend when they peak earlier in their careers. Hairston's pull-quote from last night was telling: "I had so much fun with the Yankees team in '09 when we won it. This time, I'm really getting a chance to play, which is great. I'm really enjoying it." Thank the Reds and Chase Weems for that.

In 2008, Jerry Hairston had an out-of-nowhere .871 OPS season with the Reds. He had had some success in Baltimore early in his career, but by the time he reached Cincinnati was 32 and had just spent two seasons in Texas below the Mendoza line. His 297 PAs was just  around the right sample in which these bouts of utility brilliance seem to take place. It was a bright spot in that lost season. And after another one of those this year, it helps to not always root for the laundry.

Hi, long time no see!

I'm going to try to do a playoff match-up series in line with the series previews I did this season until I was crushed by the unrighteous fury of my semester from hell.  I'm calling them a match-up series rather than a preview series because a) I'm not going to get these all done before the teams start playing, and b) it's hard to do a preview when you don't even know the pitching probables because the Rays can't make up their minds!  It's like they're still in some kind of giddy haze from their amazing run to overtake the Red Sox....  Anyway, here we go.

Team Comparison: Rays vs. Rangers

The Rays are the most impressively run team in baseball.  I really don't think there can be any question of this right now.  This is a team that started the season with a $42 M payroll after peaking out at $73 M last year, lost two key players in Carl Crawford an Carlos Pena, as well as pretty much their entire bullpen.  They have crap attendance.  And they are going to the playoffs for the third time in four years.

That all said, AL East or not, they are here by the wild card.  And based on pretty much every measure, they had a weaker showing in 2011 than the Rangers.  The Rangers, even after adjusting for their offense-inducing ballpark, have a better offense, a deeper rotation, and thanks to some deadline deals, a more impressive bullpen.  The only place where the Rays seem to be clearly superior is their fielding--by all measures save for nFRAA (which, as has been pointed out, often contradicts all the other measures...I just don't know about it), the Rays are probably the best fielding team in baseball.  And the Rangers are just very good.

But things happen in short series, and the Rays are a very good team.  And there are some things about the way the Rays are constructed that might even the match-up in a short series.  Let's take a look at the players.

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Max Fischer: Dr. Guggenheim, I dont want to tell you how to do your job. But the fact is, no matter how hard I try, I still might flunk another class. If that means I have to stay on for a post-graduate year, so be it...
Dr. Nelson Guggenheim: We dont offer a post-graduate year.
Max Fischer: Well, we don't offer it yet.
(Rushmore, 1998)

Time to turn off the "Halladay + Phillies + History + Wednesday + Hits = 0" internet filter, let some light into the room and take this 40 year old wedding dress. You day-drinking, blackout drunks, you played this one just right for Game One. I've got the memory of too many weak dribblers seared into my brain-pan.

But there's no crying in baseball. And more to the point, there's no aggregate scoring. Wednesday's 4-0, no-hit, cultural-historical humiliation gets marked down as just one loss. Not three, not two, possibly four.  Although, if I'm not mistaken, the Reds have to give back all the money they were paid for that game. That's right, isn't it?

1. As our friend and overlord Slyde points out in the Red Reporter Twitter feed: Current Reds have hit .290/.329/.484 against Oswalt, collectively. Don't be taken in by anyone citing Oswalt's career-long dominance of the Reds - just place it in the "More Things to Forget Forever" file and make sure to keep that file stored in the fireplace.
2. A habit of bouncing back. Despite gut-punch series in Atlanta, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco and Colorado, the Reds kept churning. These case studies, taken with the nurturing presence of Dusty, bring us to the unimpeachable conclusion that the Reds can, will, should, must and mayest win.
3. The Reds have been held scoreless for 30 consecutive innings at Citizens Bank Park. This seems bad. But it's completely unsustainable. Can you imagine 39 consecutive scoreless inning? I can't - and I can tell you that math is with me on this one.
   
4. Aroldis Chapman. Fat Vegas Allan recommends we consider FanGraph's recommendation that the Cubandolero be recommended to be on the mound the second time Utley comes to the plate. I don't expect Dusty to have an eleven batter hook unless Arroyo really bombs, but Game One showed Dusty's willingness to go the 'pen. Chapman is well-rested and buffered by tomorrow's off-day. There's little chance we don't see him tonight, possibly for 4-5 outs.
   
5. The rest of the bullpen. They put up an almost spotless performance on Wednesday night - one hit in 7.2 innings. Masset, Rhodes and Cordero are all fresh, while Bill Bray is a good match for the Phils (Howard is 0-8 with 4 Ks against him).
6. Selective historiography. The Reds won Game 7 after Fisk's home run. The Yankees lost after Larsen's perfect game. Examples abound, but suffice to say, being the footnote to a bally-hoo moment is not a death sentence. Especially when the series is 1-0.
7. Bronson "Saturn Nuts" Arroyo, Stopper. The club started the season 0-2 against the hated Cardinals. Bronson toed the rubber and put up an 8 IP, 1 ER performance. CG victory against the Cardinals in May to regain sole possession of first place. Seven innings of one run ball in July against the Dodgers to snap a 3 game losing streak and regain first place. Pulled down the win against the Rockies to snap a four game losing streak in July. Not to mention 3 appearances during the 2004 Red Sox playoff run, which represents one the highest concentrations of futility-fueled pressure in baseball history.
   

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The echo chamber is chock-full of Precious Roy today. Rightly so. Chad over at Redleg Nation went the path of escapism, I'm inclined to follow him down.  From the Reds camp, the best take I've seen was from the MVP-deserving lips of Joey Votto:

"He just pitched so well. When you're trying to thread a needle up at the plate, it's just miserable. It's not fun being up there trying to hit nothing. Tonight was a nothing night. Sometimes you just don't get pitches to hit. I took the one pitch I saw all night to hit because I wanted to see a strike. He just acted like Roy for the rest of the bat. I hate to use hyperbole, he's an ace among aces." (Mark My Word)

Watching the game last night, I felt a slow, steadily mounting sense of inevitability. It was a Twilight Zone in which every time I looked at the count, it was 0-2. The game was an undeniably historic one - which if baseball still exists in the post-apocalypse, I'll bitterly recount to my grandchildren while clinging to my shopping cart.

For Reds fans, this game didn't yield a single happy headline, only questions. Questions like, "are you going to drink the rest of that?"and "Why are you telling me I can't sleep in this drainage ditch?" So I'll put just a few more to you:

What adjustments should be made for Game 2?
Dusty just announced that Laynce Nix will start Game 2 (Nix is 9-for-17 in his career against Oswalt). Titanic deck chair arrangers have debated last night's defensive performances by Gomes and Cabrera. But should any horses by changed (or beaten) in mid-stream? I'm not convinced there would be much difference offensively between Cabrera and Janish in a short playoff series against this slate of pitchers. But Janish, as he's always been, is the better glove. There's very little justification for guaranteeing Cabrera a starting spot, #2 in the order and all nine innings the whole series.

Looking past the small sample vs. Oswalt, Laynce Nix and Chris Heisey are both better fielders and better against righties this year than Gomes. Gomes put up .257/.301/.408 splits this season and .233/.309/.438 over his career. Chris Heisey has posted a .321/.389/.536 line in 126 major league PAs against righties (though his minor league splits run the other way), while Laynce Nix did .289/.346/.450 in 163 PAs this season. All of this to say, neither Nix nor Heisey can be expected to master the Phillies. But, at worst, you're getting similar offensive output and improved LF defense.

While it's always tempting to embrace the cold comfort of numbers, there's always room for the qualities of leadership and composure Gomes and Cabrera may bring to the field. Still, it's hard to believe that would make up the performance gap, especially on defense. The larger point would be that the Reds will probably not win on the margin between Cabrera and Janish or Gomes and Nix.

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Rumors of the Reds playoff demise have been greatly exaggerated. It turns out, they haven't even played a game yet. Who knew?

Let's be honest though, the road through Philly is tough one. The Phillies didn't end up with the best record in baseball for nothing. It would be foolish to deny that they are a very good team, even if many of their fans don't hold the same respect for the Reds. That doesn't mean that the Reds can't or won't win this series. Here are some of the things that need to happen for the Reds to topple the Phils.

1. Get men on base for Joey Votto.

It goes without saying that Joey Votto is the most important player on the Reds. The team can battle through if he struggles, but if he's not getting hits, the mountain they are climbing gets much bigger. Votto's job will get easier if Brandon Phillips and Orlando Cabrera can get on base consistently for him. If the Reds put men on for Votto, this forces the Phillies pitchers to challenge him rather than just pitching around him. Then again, if Brandon Phillips gets on in the first inning and Dusty Baker has Cabrera bunt him over to second, I'm going to flip my lid. The last thing we want is for the Reds to be intentionally opening first base with Votto at the plate. Please don't do that. It's not a sound strategy.

2. Play good defense.

The Reds have done it all year. Now it is more important than ever. The Reds starting pitching doesn't match up to the Phillies, but if the Reds play good defense behind their pitchers, they can narrow the gap. And in a tight game, things like cutting down a ball in the gap or hitting cutting man can make all the difference. Doing that will keep the game close and give the offense a shot at squeaking out a win.

3. Keep the ball in the park.

Then again, the best defense in the world doesn't matter if the pitchers are giving up long balls all day. This series will be played in two homer friendly parks, so it's probably too much to ask for zero home runs from the competition, but keeping those dingers to a minimum will give the Reds a shot to play good defense and make a difference that way. Of course, if the Reds pitchers are giving up bombs regularly, this will be a short series and a long winter.

4. Stay aggressive on the bases.

When you are an underdog, the game is all about making and taking advantage of opportunities. When the Reds were going great this year, they were very opportunistic. In much the same way that the defense can keep them in games by shutting down aggressiveness from the opposition, taking the extra base while on offense both puts pressure on the defense and put the Reds in better position to capitalize.

Of course, they sure as heck better not be running into outs all day. Aggressiveness is great. Stupidity? Not so much.

5. Dusty needs to have a quick hook.

During the season, Dusty plays a lot of loyalty games. He likes to let his guys work through issues and reach milestones. That's great during the regular season. At this point, all that matters is winning. If a pitcher looks like he's slipping even the slightest, go to the bullpen. There are plenty of good, reliable pitchers out in the bullpen, and you have lots of off days. Use them.

This also applies on defense. If the Reds are winning in the 7th inning or later and Jonny Gomes is still in left field, I'm going to be very annoyed. The fact is, there isn't a lot of offensive drop-off from Gomes to Laynce Nix or Chris Heisey, but their defense is clearly superior. Use them. And you know what, it might be a good idea to put Paul Janish in the game in those situations too. Pull out all of the stops, Dusty!

As Reds fans, we're playing with house money at this point. It's been an amazing season so far, but I don't believe for a second that winning doesn't matter. You take the opportunities when they are presented to you. Success next year isn't guaranteed. I want to see the Reds win this thing. Who knows when we'll get another shot?

To give us a little preview of the upcoming LDS, I traded questions and answers with Whole Camels of The Good Phight. His answers are below. My answers will be up on their site at some point - unless they are too scared to hear my truth!

1. During the off-season, Ruben Amaro traded for Roy Halladay. During the regular season he traded for Roy Oswalt. Did he not realize that Jonathan Broxton's middle name is Roy? What were your initial thoughts on giving up Cliff Lee and then replacing him with Halladay? What do you think of it now (if your feelings have changed)?

The Good Phight: There are so many moving parts that it's hard to give an overall "good" or "bad" evaluation.  I think trading Cliff Lee away was a mistake, and I'm not sure I buy that Ruben Amaro, Jr. is The Amazing Kreskin of baseball, making that trade knowing that Roy Oswalt would be available mid-season, and knowing that he'd pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA over the last two months of the year.  Amaro was under fire from all sides back in late July when the team was 48-46 and in third place, and Cliff Lee was owning the American League. Which brings us to question 2... (also, Broxton is a fat, gutless turd and the Phillies broke him).

TGP: Huge, absolutely huge, not just for the regular season in 2010 and 2011, but the playoffs as well, where rotation depth takes a back seat to top of the rotation quality.

Oswalt is susceptible to bulldozer-based playoff payouts.  Do with this information what you will.

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Moments like last night turn me (and many of you, judging by the game recap thread) into bubblegum philosophers.  This thread is dedicated to those of you who have psedo-deep thoughts to share about why this is so freakin' cool.  Or, just post more pics of Mr. Redlegs pooping on Albert Pujols.  It's all good today.

But first, a few scattered thoughts. 

I sometimes feel like way too much is made of fandom.  There are a number of major pro sports leagues in this country, each of which crowns a champion each year.  Every year.  Year in and year out.  Teams win, then lose, then win again.  Last year's champion is forgotten as soon as this year's is crowned.  This year's great moments turn into next year's trivia question on Stump the Schwab.  Why do we care so much?

Part of the answer, to me, is in the fact that, as I was folding laundry with my wife last night, following the game on my phone, I saw the first pitch to Bruce: "In play, run(s)."  I knew how dramatic the moment must have been, and my first thought was, "I can't wait to get onto RR and see what the reaction is."  Not, "I can't wait to see the highlight" or "I can't wait to see Baseball Tonight to see what national media guys are saying about it."  First and foremost, I wanted to share the moment with you fine folks.  My guess is we all had a similar reaction, whether it was wanting to share it with family, a friend, or creepy internet strangers.  I love that sports creates these ridiculously contrived communities and connections that have no reason to exist other than the shared joy of watching a bunch of strangers play a game.  To me sports are like a great meal--designed to be experienced with others.  I haven't lived in Cincinnati in a decade, but the descriptions of the city last night, from the stadium to the streets afterwards, makes me more happy than any player interview or picture.    Regardless of how the postseason plays out, the shared experience with other fans will stay with me for a long time.  Of course, the experience is going to be so much better when Bruce does that against Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th of game 7 of the World Series.

I mean, holy crackers, what drama.  I'll take that moment over any movie, novel, play, song, symphony, or Lady GaGa video you can think of.  Jay Bruce gets to have that on his resume forever, and we can log onto RR v 14.0 in 30 years and talk about how the 2040 team is good and all, but you should've been there to see Bruce and company.  Now that was a special team.  I don't remember much about most movies I've seen, books I've read, or songs I've heard, but I'll remember this. 

So please, let's keep gushing.  Let's keep sharing this experience.  I know I sound cheesy right now, but now is the time for hokey sentimentalism.  I might not have anything in common with any of you, but we have this.  Let's savor it.

Even with the Reds having an off night tonight, there is still some drama. That's right, something crazy is going to happen on Two and a Half Men, I just know it. Use this thread to talk about that, or you know, basebally stuff.

By the way, rumor has it that there could be a party down at Fountain Square tonight if the Cardinals lose. If you go, please take lots of pictures as those of us who live WAY out in the suburbs are too wimpy to travel downtown in the rain at 11 o'clock at night.