This post is not a corporate tie-in with MLB '11 The Show, Comedy's Central's Chapelle's Show or Futurism. With that disclaimer out of the way, it's time to talk Dave Sappelt.

Sappelt was drafted with little fanfare out of Coastal Carolina by the Reds in the 9th round of the 2008 draft. He had been a three-time All Star outfielder in three seasons in the Big South conference. The first mention I can find of him in a Red Reporter post was Farmer's Only from Independence Day, 2008, in which Sappelt was a triple short of the cycle in a game for Billings Mustangs. He starting hitting pretty much right away in Rookie ball, compiling an 850 OPS in in '08. His offense flagged a little in low and high A ball - not at all surprising, given the Reds A+ affiliate was still in Sarasota at the time. The Florida League is famously pitcher-friendly. And to a lesser extent, so is the Midwest League in which low-A Dayton plays. He continued to steal bases, pilfering 47 in 136 games in 2009 across two levels.

As soon as he reached AA Carolina early into 2010, Sappelt's career took flight on the fins of a Mudcat. Sappelt slashed a torrid .361/.416/.548 in 372 AA plate appearances.  He was promoted to Louisville for the final 25 games of the 2010 season and since then has compiled a more svelte, but respectable .316/.374/.464 in 451 PAs with the Bats, though his stolen bases have fallen off since 2010.

In over 800 plate appearances, Sappelt has hit for average, gotten on base and shown good power to the gaps. There's little question both his defense and speed would be an asset in the majors right now. His ability to range around LF is probably on par with Chris Heisey, and elite among anyone currently stuck in that revolving door. The question for Sappelt - and it's a big one facing hitters with his skill-set and draft caliber - is how will his bat play in the major leagues?

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If you buy into the theory of scientific determinism, then predicting the future is just an epistemological problem. And as soon as we have enough information, we can stop playing these trifling little ballgames altogether. Until then, it's our solemn to duty to make amateur predictions about the baseball season. Last year, many of us undershot the mark, putting the Reds somewhere in the neighborhood of .500. This year, we're on our guard for a successful season.

While it can't boast the elegant decision tree that is the bracket, predicting the baseball season has all the fun with none of the immediate gratification. Come join in the fun by filling out your predictions in the following statistical categories, at the overall team level and individual leaders in pitching and hitting. Post yours as comments in the thread below. It'll have everyone talking around the watercooler, assuming they also read this blog and got past that part about the determinism. This is a contest. And there's probably a prize involved. But don't get all up in arms if it ends up being an ASCII graphic of a thumbs up.

I'm gonna fudge it a little and make the deadline Thursday at midnight. Enjoy.

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Steve Sommer is one of the more interesting sabermetrically-minded Cardinals fans around, and a co-author the excellent Cardinals blog, Gas House Graphs.  He and I did a Q&A exchange about the Reds and Cardinals over the past week, and here are his answers to my questions about the Cardinals.  You can find my answers to his questions about the Reds at their blog!

RR: The Cardinals and Reds were neck and neck last season until they swept the Reds in that dramatic series last August. And then the Cardinals seemed to just fall apart. What happened? Was it just bad luck/underachievement, or were there real problems with that team that were ultimately exposed?

GHG: As it is with most teams that don’t reach their ultimate goal I think the answer is likely a little bit of all of the above. The middle infielders (Schumaker and Ryan), while not great players, likely were a little bit unlucky at the plate. They both had BABIPs well below their career numbers, and while some of that was just bad hitting, I doubt it all was. Ironically, I might also start a list of underachievers with those two as well. Both were expected to hit better than they did and as already mentioned, a combination of bad luck and bad performance got in the way.

The major problem with the team however was a lack of depth. Every team has their share of injuries, but the Cardinals could not overcome theirs last year. Once David Freese went down (and he’s only a good player, by no means great) 3rd base was unproductive both offensively and defensively. On the pitching side an early injury to Brad Penny combined with an ineffective an injured Kyle Lohse (who didn’t see both of those coming?) forced the Cardinals to go outside of their system for Jake Westbrook. The price was hefty as we had to ship out Ryan Ludwick, which flows nicely into your next question…

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A few days ago, John Fay wrote a bit about Brandon Phillips and his future.  BeeP said that because of the extensions the Reds signed with Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and Bronson Arroyo, he started wondering about his own contract.  He is set to make $11 mil this season with a club option for next season at $12 mil, so it's certainly possible, as Fay noted, that the Reds could look to replace him in the near future if they deem the cost of retaining him too prohibitive. 

So this got me thinking:  if the Reds indeed decide to turn the page on the Brandon Phillips era, how easy would it be to replace his production?  Of course, a straight one-for-one replacement is likely impossible.  According to FanGraphs, only five 2B have outperformed Phillips over the past three years, and not a one of them is likely to be available for less money than they would pay him.  Quality costs money, and if the Reds are willing to spend on 2B it might as well be on the BeeP. 

But if the Reds were willing to part with him, they likely wouldn't look to completely replace his production.  Rather, they would look to a player who is significantly cheaper while also providing as much of the lost production as possible.  So the operative question is:  What kind of talent is available that is both cheap enough and good enough to replace Phillips?  If the answer is "eh, not much", it's likely smarter to try to retain him and sign him to an extension.  If the answer is "I think we could get by", it might be time to say bye-bye to BP.

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If you are not yet aware, Joey Votto is good at playing baseball.  We at Red Reporter are committed to bringing you the hard-hitting analysis you deserve, so there you go.

In fact, as of Friday, August 6, Votto leads the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and-just in case you are tempted to think these facts are a function of his home ballpark-OPS+.  He has a non-zero shot at becoming the first triple crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and the first to do it in the NL since Joe Medwick in 1937.  Combined with Cincinnati's surprisingly strong season, Joey Votto may be your current MVP front-runner.  Without any doubt, he has been the best player on the Reds this year.

That he is the unquestionable team MVP is not shocking.  He finished 2^nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 2008 and was the team's best player in 2009 despite missing a month's worth of action.  In my mind, however, there's always been an element of surprise to each new rung of Votto's accomplishments, in part because he wasn't a mega-hyped prospect as he made his way through the Reds' farm system.

There is something about Votto's career path that catches you off guard, though.  Obviously, we don't expect most players to become MVPs, but the ones that do carry those expectations were phenoms who broke through at the MLB level at a very young age.  Votto made his major league debut on September 4, 2007, six days shy of his 24^th birthday.  Of all the MVP winners in either league since 2001, only two made his ML debut at a later age: Ryan Howard, who was 24, and Ichiro Suzuki, who can be excepted since he was playing in Japan's most senior league at the age of 18.

A skeptic can be forgiven for asking: should the Reds have brought Votto up earlier?  Did they mismanage his career?  And should Votto's unusual career trajectory give management and fans pause as he becomes a candidate for a super-sized contract?

More after the jump...

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The Reds have now played 100 games in 2010, and have won 55 of them.  10 games over .500, and as of this writing, tied for first place in the NL Central.

To Redleg fans starved for success, these are wonderful things to read and write.  For history buffs like me, it's also an opportunity to look back at other iterations of our favorite team who were in a similar position at the 100 game mark.

As any financial advisor will tell you, past performance does not guarantee future results.  But some interesting things have popped out of the history books...

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Drew Stubbs' debut was one of the more pleasant surprises last year.  Stubbs put up a respectable rookie line of 267/323/437 in 196 PAs to go along with 10 steals and terrific defense.  Whether he can build upon that is a tricky question that centers on two issues in my mind - his ability to make contact and hit for power.

Making contact has been the biggest concern with Stubbs during his amateur and professional career.  Stubbs hit .269 in the minors, which is decent but obviously not spectacular.  Maintaining a .269 average in the majors would be fine given his above-average walk numbers (.364 OBP in the minors), but there's a strong possibility that he may not be able to make contact against major league pitching at the same rate.  His minor league K-rate (~26%) is high, and suggests potential difficulty with making sufficient contact at the major league level.  

Then again, Stubbs demonstrated better contact skills as he progressed through the minors, cutting his K-rate from over 30% in rookie ball to 25% in Louisville.  Hopefully, this demonstrates that he can adjust to better pitching as he moves up the ladder.  With the Reds last year Stubbs struck out in 27% of his plate appearances.  If he can maintain or improve that and walk in 10% of his PAs, he should be able to get on base at an acceptable rate (330+ OBP).  But if he can't (K-rate over 30%), he'll make too many outs to be a productive hitter.  

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It seems like there are two trains of thought currently with Edwin Encarnacion.  On the one side, you have people who see a player that is still young with much promise.  These people tend to believe that EdE is due for a breakout season this year, potentially developing 30 HR power and driving in 100 runs. Some also believe that he will eventually become adequate defensively at 3B.

On the other side, you have people who are starting to grow tired of watching EdE and wating for him to break out.  Typically, these people don't see EdE as part of the future and wouldn't mind all that much if he were dealt either for an upgrade at 3B or a bigger bat for the outfield.  Their common argument is that he's not a good enough 3B and he doesn't hit well enough to play at any of the easier defensive spots.

Personally, I'm split on this one.  On the one had, I think EdE has the potential to be a solid, Tony Perez like bat for the next decade.  On the other, I think it's time for him to be moved off of 3B, which may actually mean that it's time to trade him.  I really don't have a solid answer on this one.  The only thing I feel strongly about is that leaving him at 3B this season is a waste of time.  I'd rather see if he can handle LF and then decide from there.

As for his projection, well I was surprised that it didn't turn out as optmistic as I thought it would.  I based it off of a set of players who had a similar start to their careers, which included a couple of MVPs and a Hall of Famer.  But, I'm not scientist and I'm sure I've got major flaws in my methodology, which is very subjective by the way.

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