More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

These three players combined to make $72 million in 2009, just slightly less than entire Reds roster.

Browse more photos »

Now that the Yankees have "bought" their way to another championship, I'm seeing some of the traditional hand-wringing and complaining about how to deal with the financial imbalance in the game (mainly on Twitter, America's source for truth!).  I'll admit that it's hard to be a fan of a "small market" team and have to watch the big spending teams in the playoffs every year.  Oh sure, the baseball gods throw us a bone or two every year with Minnesota or Tampa Bay or Oakland, but there is typically a big market flavor to the playoffs every year.

But I'm not here to whine about that.  I understand why it happens, and I also understand that it is not impossible to overcome it, if you are smart.  However, lower revenue teams are at a definite disadvantage, if only because they have less of an ability to absorb mistakes.  Even though the Yankees signed players like Carl Pavano and Jason Giambi to large contracts that didn't really pan out, they still averaged 97 wins a season from 2001-2008 and made the playoffs in 7 of the 8 seasons.  The Reds signed Eric Milton to a similar contract as Pavano and that set the organization back 3 years, at least.  My point is that, despite the fact that intelligence can top money in some cases, money still gives some teams a perhaps unfair advantage.

So, what can be done about it?

I'm not a big fan of a hard salary cap because I think the ultimate result of that is that it allows owners to simply pocket more cash.  Plus, I still think you'll have owners who spend the minimum amount and take home the maximum amount of profit.  I do however think there needs to be a way to encourage players to "spread the wealth" of talent around the league.  Unfortunately, I haven't heard an idea for that that sticks with me yet.

Here are some other ideas though that I think might help out the little guys:

1. International Draft - Force all players that want to enter the league to enter through the same process, regardless of where they were born.  This would prevent the best international players from going simply to the highest bidder and would also help teams work their way into the overseas markets like Japan. 

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

This was, needless to say, not the only time someone had a good reason to argue with an umpire in the current World Series.

Browse more photos »

Okay, so everyone can agree that there have been some bad calls this postseason.  We can agree that this is not the only time that bad calls have impacted game outcomes.

But what many people in baseball can't agree on is what we should do about it.  So follow me beyond the jump for some people's opinions, then tell me what you think.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Are you there, Albert? It's me, God.

Browse more photos »

I know every writer has a different reason for voting for a player for the MVP award.  Some do the biggest RBI guy on the best team.  Others pick the best story for a good player.  While others still define some arbitrary level of value to a "sparkplug" player and pick that player for the award.  My system is pretty much what you would expect - pick the player that provided the most wins for his team.  That's why my ballot shouldn't be very surprising:

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals

How good was Pujols this year?  He takes a -12.4 runs hit for playing the easiest defensive position on the field, and he still outpaces everyone in the league in WAR.  His numbers were a little better last season, when he won his 2nd MVP award, but this year is probably one of his top 3 performances of his career.  That's saying something.

2. Tim Lincecum - Giants

If it weren't for Pujols, Lincecum could win both the MVP and Cy Young.  I mean, not in the real world because his team didn't go to the playoffs, but in the fake world that we've created here on the internet it could happen.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Browse more photos »

We all know Joey Votto was by far the best player on the Reds this past season.  He single-handedly carried the offense on his broad and capable shoulders.  Some say he is more than a man but less than a god, like some kind of demi-god, or archangel, or X-man.  He posted an impressive 4.4 WAR according to FanGraphs.  That is solid All-Star-level production.  Joey Votto is good at baseball.  But is he really the best player on the team?  Consider the following:

Continue reading this post »

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

View full size photo »

When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster.  In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers.  As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells.  The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down.  So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time  So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft.  The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November.  According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier.  Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season).  Some of the names though are obvious keepers.  Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status.  There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well.  Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter.  Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season.  He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices.  There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood.  The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar?  Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario?  And who do they drop?  I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump.  Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

Continue reading this post »

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season.  I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you.  The full set of projections will be available with much,  much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here. 

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition.  First, the "starters":

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were.  As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder.  I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection.  Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup.  BP's projection is what it almost always is.  I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed.  Votto is...well...awesome.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

With the 8th pick of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft, the Cincinnati Reds take Outfielder Drew Stubbs from the University of Texas.

Browse more photos »

Today we'll look at the NL Cy Young Award and who I voted for:

1. Tim Lincecum - Giants

Lincecum has a case for NL MVP, not just Cy Young Award.  His 8.2 WAR is the second highest total in the NL behind Albert Pujols.  He's first in the NL in strikeouts, second in ERA, and first in FIP.  It's a shame he only won 15 games on the year because that could prevent him from winning an award that should be his.

2. Chris Carpenter - Cardinals

The NL ERA leader, 23 of his 28 starts were quality starts, and he allowed more than 3 runs in a start just 3 times.  Despite missing nearly a month of the season, he threw over 190 innings on the season, mainly because he only failed to reach 6 innings 4 times, one of which was his last start before the playoffs when TLR was saving him.  His 17-4 record and ERA title are going to attract a lot of BBWA votes, but his missed time and fewer strikeouts left him nearly 2.5 WAR behind Lincecum, which is why he falls short here.

3. Javier Vazquez - Braves

Things you may not realize about Vazquez - he was second in the NL in WAR for pitchers (6.6 WAR).  He was second in the NL in strikeouts at 238.  He was second in the NL in strikeouts per walk (5.41).  He was second in the NL in FIP (2.77).  You could make an argument that he deserves to be second on this list, but I think Carpenter did a bit more to deserve the vote (Carpenter's WPA was 5.41 to Vazquez's 2.41). 

Dan Haren also has a case to be on this list, but I think Carpenter's numbers were too good to ignore.

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

It was a tough choice, but Andrew McCutchen gets my vote for NL Rookie of the Year

Browse more photos »

It's time for the NL Rookie of the Year ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance awards.  If you are wondering who won the Manager of the Year Awards, it was Jim Tracy in the NL and Mike Scioscia in the AL.

Here's my ballot for NL Rookie of the Year.  Let me know what you think in the comments:

1. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates

McCutchen led all NL rookies in WAR this past season at 3.4, mainly because he played about average defense at a prime defensive position of centerfield.  This is what propels him into the award in my book.  Good offense from a decent defensive centerfielder is definitely a plus.  McCutchen did a lot to improve his chances too with his hitting during the last 3 weeks of the season.  Over his last 18 games he batted .377/.463/.565, raising his OPS 37 points over that span.

2. J.A. Happ - Philadelphia Phillies

Happ led all rookie pitchers in ERA+, strikeouts, and wins after going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA over 166 innings.  Doing it all for a team that was on its way to winning the division makes that much more special.

3. Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves

Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 big league starts.  Despite the fact that he pitched nearly 40 fewer innings than Happ, he only had 3 fewer strikeouts and fell just short of leading NL rookies in wins and ERA+.  What's scary is that he's only 22.

Honorable mentions: Garrett Jones - Pirates (led all NL rookies with 149 OPS+ and 21 HR), Chris Coghlan - Marlins (batted .321/.390/.460, but was shaky on defense in LF), Randy Wells - Cubs (12-10, 3.05 ERA), Casey McGehee - Brewers (batted .301/.360/.499, led NL rookies in RBI with 66), Colby Rasmus - Cardinals (batted .251/.307/.407, but played outstanding defense in center field)

So, did I get it right?  Who do you think should be the NL Rookie of the Year?