More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Jonny Gomes can mash the ball. But he may be the Reds' worst fielder, which cuts deeply into his value.

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A lot of the talk about the Hernandez signing was about whether the money spent on Hernandez would affect our ability to sign Jonny Gomes.  I thought it'd be worth it to try to estimate how much Jonny Gomes should actually be paid in 2010.

Gomes will be effectively in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2010.  He's at 4+ years of service, despite having his first significant amount of playing time in 2005: too much time in the minors.  This impacts his earning potential, as players do not make as much in arbitration hearings as they do on the open free agent market.  The general guideline is that they make 40% of free agent salary in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year of arbitration, though some work has shown that these values actually underestimate actual totals because arbitration salaries haven't inflated as rapidly as free agent salaries.  But we'll go with 60% for Jonny.

Hitting-wise, Jonny is above-average.  CHONE's R150 is +4 RAA for him.  Converted to wins per full season puts him at +0.5 WAA.  CHONE's slightly more optimistic than ZiPS, but let's run with CHONE for now.

Gomes's problem is his fielding.  Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him at -3 runs in the corner outfield positions combined.  However, he really only has about 1.5 seasons worth of playing time in the outfield to draw from (192 games started), which means sample size is an issue and thus we're seeing Gomes regressed a bit toward the mean.  Furthermore, Zimmerman's data are based on total UZR data in each season, not UZR/150, which results in several fairly "average" low-inning stints entering into the calculations and pulling the numbers back toward zero.  I'm just not sure that I trust that projection.  So let's try something else.

His career UZR/150 in the corner outfield is -22 runs.  Yikes.  But again, it's based on a relatively small sample for this kind of stat, so we probably need to regress roughly 50% toward the mean.  As an alternative, the Fan Scouting Report has him at 2.4 out of 5.0, which is well below the average of RFs of 3.2.  If I'm doing this right (and I think I am), based on standard deviations of the Fans data and UZR data, you can equate 1 unit of FSR to ~17 runs, which would put Gomes at -14 runs below average in RF per full season (-1.6 wins).  That seems in keeping with his all-hit-no-field reputation, so I'm going to go with that estimate.  Nevertheless, I can see arguments for everything from -0.5 wins to -2 wins.  It's a big source of uncertainty, and how you evaluate his overall value depends a great deal on how you evaluate his fielding.

Finally, Gomes is playing corner outfield positions, which have a 0.75 win/season penalty to reflect the poor fielding found at that position (it's easier to be an average-fielding left fielder than an average-fielding center fielder).  Replacement is +2.25 wins per season.  

So, all of that combined, per season, puts Gomes at 0.5 - 1.6 - 0.75 + 2.25 = 0.4 WAR player per full season.  

Ouch.  Fielding just kills his value.

The question, then, is playing time.  CHONE projects him at 54% playing time, which isn't an unreasonable guess if you assume he'd platoon with Dickerson in left.  On the other hand, if he starts all year, he might push toward 85% playing time.  Here are estimated WAR totals, free agent dollar values, and 2nd-year arbitration dollar values for each of those two playing time estimates:

If those seem like surprisingly low totals, remember a) he's not getting paid at free agent rates yet, and b) fielding is killing his value.  He was worth 0.6 WAR according to fangraphs last season...but 2009 was his first positive WAR season since his "breakout" 2005 campaign.

Also, in terms of the salaries, keep in mind that these are estimated fair market values for him.  The market, and probably especially the arbitration market, hasn't completely corrected for bad fielding players yet.  Arbitration debates, as I understand them, are still largely settled with AVG/HR/RBI.  So it may be that he'd get more than that in arbitration--perhaps at least the $1.3M he made in 2008.  Nevertheless, I think this is a pretty good estimate of what he should be paid in 2010.

Finally, I want to emphasize that this estimate is hugely contingent on how you evaluate his fielding.  Go with the Zimmerman UZR projections and you add a full win (~$4 M) to his FA salary.  Go with his straight-up career corner outfield UZR/150, and he's a replacement player.  What do you folks think?

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Ramon Hernandez is re-signed by the Reds. Will he be the everyday catcher?

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have re-signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal.  Rosenthal says the deal has a vesting option for 2011 if Hernandez plays 120 games in 2010.  He played in 81 games last season and has played in 120 or more games just twice in the last 6 seasons.  No other details have been released on the terms yet.

The Reds traded Ryan Freel and prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring to the Orioles last season for Hernandez.  He came to the Reds and batted .258/.336/.362 in 331 plate appearances last season, which is very similar to the .258/.319/.395 he posted in the previous two seasons combined with the Orioles.  It shouldn't be a surprise then that his projections fall in a similar category.  CHONE has Hernandez at .253/.322/.387 and ZiPS has him posting a .255/.324/.385 line. Neither line is all that impressive.

I'm optimistic that given the budget concerns, the Reds haven't overpaid on this deal.  However, given the $8.5 million option that the Reds had to decline prior to signing Hernandez, I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar amount is more than any of us would have given to him.

The real key though is that Hernandez's playing time needs to be balanced with Ryan Hanigan.  Neither probably deserves the title of everyday catcher, but I think together they could make a decent platoon.  They're not going to hit a ton, but defensively they are solid and I think the Reds could do much worse at the catcher position.

UPDATE: Mark Sheldon has the details on Twitter:

Terms on R. Hernandez signing: $3M for 2010 and $3.250M for vesting option in 2011 that kicks in with 120 games played.

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera are two shortstop possibilities for the Reds on the free agent market this off-season.

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As Walt Jocketty spends his time in Chicago, cozying up to the other GMs for a long Winter's nap season of dealing, he appears to have two priorities on his mind: shortstop and catcher.  The Reds had reportedly been trying to deal with the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but those talks didn't get anywhere and now Hardy is in Minnesota, likely to be the starting shortstop for the opening of the new Target Field.

The Reds could stick with Paul Janish and hope for the best, but his combined batting line of .231/.317/.332 over the last 3 years in the Majors and Minors doesn't exactly instill a bunch of confidence in his ability to be the everyday shortstop for a contending team.  Not that he is without his positives.  He could potentially be on one of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the league.  Based upon his very small sample in the big leagues, he's been doing quite well.  He's posted a UZR of 9.9 in 118 big league games at shortstop - hardly enough of a sample to know what his true talent level is, but if it is anywhere around 10, he's one of the best.  On a team that could be struggling to generate offense though, his defense may not be enough to make up for that putrid offense.

So, what are some of the options out there for the Reds to fill the need at shortstop?  While they could still make a trade, it's hard to know at this point who (Hanley Ramirez) might be available.  We do know who should be free agents though, so let's look at them.

According to Cots, there are 12 possible free agent shortstops available this off-season.  I doubt that anybody seriously considers Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald as much of an option as an everyday starter at shortstop.  I don't really feel like discussing Alex Gonzalez for fear that the Reds might read this and misconstrue it as a desire to have him back on the team.  Adam Everett can still do a pretty good job of picking it in the field, but honestly, he's just an older, more injury-prone version of Janish.  And Kahlil Greene is a decent bet to hit better than Janish, but his 3 year average for UZR puts him at about 8 runs below the average shortstop defensively.  Given that even at his best, he's basically a league average hitter, I wouldn't say he's worth it.

That leaves us with four possibilities on the free agent market: Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson.  We'll take a look at each after the jump.

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More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

These three players combined to make $72 million in 2009, just slightly less than entire Reds roster.

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Now that the Yankees have "bought" their way to another championship, I'm seeing some of the traditional hand-wringing and complaining about how to deal with the financial imbalance in the game (mainly on Twitter, America's source for truth!).  I'll admit that it's hard to be a fan of a "small market" team and have to watch the big spending teams in the playoffs every year.  Oh sure, the baseball gods throw us a bone or two every year with Minnesota or Tampa Bay or Oakland, but there is typically a big market flavor to the playoffs every year.

But I'm not here to whine about that.  I understand why it happens, and I also understand that it is not impossible to overcome it, if you are smart.  However, lower revenue teams are at a definite disadvantage, if only because they have less of an ability to absorb mistakes.  Even though the Yankees signed players like Carl Pavano and Jason Giambi to large contracts that didn't really pan out, they still averaged 97 wins a season from 2001-2008 and made the playoffs in 7 of the 8 seasons.  The Reds signed Eric Milton to a similar contract as Pavano and that set the organization back 3 years, at least.  My point is that, despite the fact that intelligence can top money in some cases, money still gives some teams a perhaps unfair advantage.

So, what can be done about it?

I'm not a big fan of a hard salary cap because I think the ultimate result of that is that it allows owners to simply pocket more cash.  Plus, I still think you'll have owners who spend the minimum amount and take home the maximum amount of profit.  I do however think there needs to be a way to encourage players to "spread the wealth" of talent around the league.  Unfortunately, I haven't heard an idea for that that sticks with me yet.

Here are some other ideas though that I think might help out the little guys:

1. International Draft - Force all players that want to enter the league to enter through the same process, regardless of where they were born.  This would prevent the best international players from going simply to the highest bidder and would also help teams work their way into the overseas markets like Japan. 

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More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

This was, needless to say, not the only time someone had a good reason to argue with an umpire in the current World Series.

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Okay, so everyone can agree that there have been some bad calls this postseason.  We can agree that this is not the only time that bad calls have impacted game outcomes.

But what many people in baseball can't agree on is what we should do about it.  So follow me beyond the jump for some people's opinions, then tell me what you think.

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More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Are you there, Albert? It's me, God.

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I know every writer has a different reason for voting for a player for the MVP award.  Some do the biggest RBI guy on the best team.  Others pick the best story for a good player.  While others still define some arbitrary level of value to a "sparkplug" player and pick that player for the award.  My system is pretty much what you would expect - pick the player that provided the most wins for his team.  That's why my ballot shouldn't be very surprising:

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals

How good was Pujols this year?  He takes a -12.4 runs hit for playing the easiest defensive position on the field, and he still outpaces everyone in the league in WAR.  His numbers were a little better last season, when he won his 2nd MVP award, but this year is probably one of his top 3 performances of his career.  That's saying something.

2. Tim Lincecum - Giants

If it weren't for Pujols, Lincecum could win both the MVP and Cy Young.  I mean, not in the real world because his team didn't go to the playoffs, but in the fake world that we've created here on the internet it could happen.

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More photos » by David Kohl - AP

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We all know Joey Votto was by far the best player on the Reds this past season.  He single-handedly carried the offense on his broad and capable shoulders.  Some say he is more than a man but less than a god, like some kind of demi-god, or archangel, or X-man.  He posted an impressive 4.4 WAR according to FanGraphs.  That is solid All-Star-level production.  Joey Votto is good at baseball.  But is he really the best player on the team?  Consider the following:

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Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

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When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster.  In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers.  As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells.  The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down.  So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time  So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft.  The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November.  According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier.  Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season).  Some of the names though are obvious keepers.  Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status.  There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well.  Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter.  Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season.  He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices.  There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood.  The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar?  Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario?  And who do they drop?  I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump.  Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

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