Dave Cameron runs down the 10 best transactions of the winter
The Madson deal checks in at #9, which I think is a little low. Also, the Mat Latos trade checks in at #3, though he thinks the Padres were run away winners in the deal:

"The Reds needed to make a deal like this, but I love this trade for the Padres. Alonso might not have star potential, but as a left-handed hitter with opposite field power, he should be able to hit well enough in Petco to be a useful piece, and there’s value in having six years of a cost controlled Wally Joyner hanging around. Grandal is the real key to this deal, though, as a switch-hitting catcher with power and patience who could easily be more valuable than Latos over the next six years by himself. Toss in a terrific buy-low arm in Edinson Volquez, who is a perfect fit for Petco, and a good young bullpen arm in Boxberger, and the Padres restocked their talent base in a hurry without drastically making their team worse for 2012. In fact, if Alonso and Volquez perform as expected, the team could actually be better than they would have been with Latos and some random first baseman. Toss in the long term value, and this deal was just a huge win for San Diego."

No news on Brandon Phillips' contract extension
Sheldon asked Jocketty if there was anything to report and he replied, "Not really. We really haven’t had a chance to talk with them. Hopefully in the next few weeks, it’s something we can address."

I'm of the opinion that if this extension were a go, it would have happened weeks ago. The Reds have to be diplomatic about this and say all the right things like "Hopefully soon" and "We are still in talks", but the fact that it has dragged out so long gives me the impression that the team and BP are just too far apart. It's gonna be tough to see ol' BeePerino go, but ultimately I think it would be even tougher to see him struggle to stay above replacement level in his mid-30s.

Tigers' owner Mike Ilitch got mad guap
and is not afraid to throw it around like Weezy in the club. Joe Sheehan says, "Ilitch represents an approach to sports-team ownership that is in short supply these days: wanting the next win more than the next dollar. Far too many franchises are run as if they're the corner grocery, with the need to stay in the black for the next month, next quarter, next year the primary goal, and winning a secondary one."

The Prince Fielder signing was roundly criticized for being enormously short-sighted. The Tigers already had a 1B (Miguel Cabrera, who is better than Prince), and a DH (Victor Martinez, who won't play in 2012 because of knee surgery). But once Vic went down, Illitch gave the directive to go after Prince. It's short-sighted and expensive, but make no mistake; the Tigers are now far and away the favorite to win the AL Central. Signing Prince made the team better, and that's the most important thing to Illitch.

I think Bob Castellini should take note, especially in regards to the Roy Oswalt sitch. Oswalt will make the team better, so much better in fact that they would likely be clear favorites to win the division this year. Making the playoffs would likely pay off whatever cost it takes to get Oswalt. See, getting Oswalt would be an investment, one that has a solid chance of paying off and then some. Illitch is the kind of guy who gets that (though to be fair, 200 million bones is ca-razy. But the argument still has merit on principle).

Da Briz sez it makes too much sense for the Roy Oswalt to not come to the Reds
To sum up, he says that for a team like the Reds, who are squarely in the middle of the contention window, every marginal upgrade counts. The difference between Roy Oswalt and Bronson Arroyo could quite literally be the difference between 1st place and 2nd place (or 3rd place, for that matter). Of course, the money is the big reason this likely will not happen, but if Bob were more like Mike Illitch, this would have been done last week.

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• I wouldn't get your hopes up about Roy Oswalt
  Walt said over the weekend that the Reds "had discussions with [Oswalt] a while ago." It's looking more and more that Texas and St. Louis - the reported frontrunners for geographic reasons - don't have the money to sign Oswalt. Fay suggests that trading Homer Bailey and his ~ $2.5M salary could be "risky" but would free up the money and roster spot to bring in Yosemite Roy.
  
  Another SP trade in the works is reportedly Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie for Colorado's Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel. Guthrie has had a perfectly cromulent baseballing career, but he's not anything I wished Jocketty had pursued in earnest. [ed.: done deal]
• RL Nation admires the Reds' production at Firstbase
  To kick off their position previews, Redleg Nation takes a look at the most stable spot on the Reds' roster. I'd like to see Votto's HR numbers return to their 2010 levels, but I'm obviously quibbling here - Joey Votto is one of the best players in baseball, and I agree that "[i]f anyone else gets significant time at first, it's going to be a problem."
• Mapping strike zone performance
  The strength in Joey Votto's hitting derives from his lack of a major weakness. Taking a look at these strike zone maps from the Blog Red Machine, you can see just how difficult it is to put away Votto unless you can paint the low-and-away corner with uncanny precision. Jay Bruce also struggles in that corner, but his weak spot looks to be triple the size of Votto's. Really good stuff here.
• The Fox Sports Ohio Rewind broadcasts start tonight, as a reminder
  2011 OD kicks it off tonight at 7. Come by 'round these parts during the game. We'll have a thread and everything.
• The 2012 Topps are out
  And OMGReds shows us the "Mike Leake v. Gapper" limited edition card. The "Topps so crazy" line also includes the now infamous "Schumaker-as-Squirrel" depiction and, by internet rumor, a NC-17 "Pat Burrell is The Machine" card.

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The Enquirer links to a piece from Chicago Tribune's Phil Rodgers
In which Rodgers posits that Joey Votto will inevitably be a Blue Jay. It's nothing we haven't heard before. The Blue Jays would look sharp with Jose Bautista and Joey Votto in the lineup together, and the Reds can't possibly sign Votto to a long-term deal. So the question is not if the Blue Jays will get their native son, but whether the Reds will trade him for a bevy or prospects or bid him farewell as he leaves via free agency.

It's all so speculative, though. There is nothing that says Votto actually wants to go to Toronto. Also, the Blue Jays have a publicly stated policy against signing contracts for longer than five years. And perhaps most obvious is the perhaps faulty assumption that the Reds don't have a prayer in re-signing him. I'm not saying they will, I'm just questioning the certainty that they won't. Either way, if you think this speculation is annoying now, it is most certainly only going to get worse.

FSO has announced their Spring Training TV schedule
It looks like the only Spring Training game that will be broadcast is a March 5th tilt against the Indians. That sucks. I know the live productions take some effort and treasure to produce, but I would have liked more than one game this spring. There is a robust schedule for Reds Rewind though, and a nightly show Reds Live - Spring Training 2012. So that should serve as an adequate appetizer for Opening Day.

Skip Schumaker sounds sour re: squirrel send-up
Topps baseball cards released a limited edition version of Skip Schumaker's 2012 card featuring the rally squirrel who interrupted his at-bat in Game Four of the NLDS last October. The squirrel became a minor but still cute story line as the Cardinals went on to take the pennant and the World Series trophy.

Predictably, Schumaker was whiny about it. "It's pretty ridiculous," Schumaker told FOXSportsMidwest.com. "I have a shoe on my baseball card. And a squirrel. It's pretty ridiculous...It's not disappointing, it's just ridiculous...I don't know how else to explain it other than that. You expect to have some sort of action shot or something but it's like a mascot card to me...I'm not frustrated, I just think people are going to look at it and laugh and that's ridiculous. I don't care about what I look like or anything but it's literally just a squirrel that has nothing to do with me."

He thinks it's ridiculous. What is it about St. Louis that makes the players act so ridiculous and say such ridiculous things? I'm genuinely concerned that there is a hidden pocket of magnetism or radioactivity or something ridiculous that drains the team of any sense of humor. I mean, what kind of person gets that ridiculous about a baseball card? And it's not even his primary card, it's a limited edition card. His regular card will feature him missing a ground ball up the middle or chopping a four-hopper to the first baseman or something ridiculous like that. This cute squirrel on a few thousand cards with his name on it though, that's just ridiculous to him. This whole thing is ridiculous.

FanGraphs likes the Jeff Francis signing
"In an offseason where Jason Marquis nets a somewhat lucrative one-year deal, it’s simply stunning to me that Francis, who for all his faults was a 2.6-win pitcher last season, had to settle for a minor league deal. Sure, there’s more red flags than a Chinese embassy here, but projection-wise you have to believe Francis has matured greatly as a pitcher to be a nearly 3-win hurler despite an 84.7 mph average heater. Can you even call that a heater? Maybe it’s a warmer. Joking aside, Francis hasn’t landed in an ideal place with the Great American Ballpark (120-133 home run park factors via StatCorner), but if he gains velocity back in his ongoing rehabilitation efforts, as a lefty he could carve out a nice, long career in the back of a number of rotations."

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• The Caravan swung to Columbus
  "It's a swing city, really," Reds chief operating officer Phil Castellini said during a stop at Polaris Fashion Place mall in Columbus. Leading the Caravan to C-bus was Brandon Phillips and catching wunderkind Devin Mesoraco, who was glad to get a few more questions this year: "I get more questions now, it seems like. In the past when I was with Brandon [Phillips], he'd get all the questions. More people know who I am, I guess." BP then deadpanned "get me a Coke, groundhog," grinning and elbowing Thom Brennaman in the ribs. For pictures and Caravan wrap-ups, check out the fine work at OMGreds and Red Hot Mama.
• Commercially viable Reds
  The offseason is about selling tickets and selling out, and plenty of Reds have shilled for Corporate America over the years. Redlegs Review runs down some old television endorsements by Reds for products like Aqua Velva, Krylon Paint, and Pepsi, which tastes the worst of the three.
• "So you're telling me there's a chance"
  According to the Vegas bookmakers, the Reds are now a 25-1 shot for winning the WS and a 9-1 for taking the NL pennant. Sounds reasonable, no? (If I could short any of these, I'd bet against Miami to win the Series at 15-1.) But maybe some pessimism is in order. Redleg Nation ran some fancy algorithms based on the Reds' ZiPS projections, and spat out a 84-78 season. Then again, Reds Net Live thinks that simply avoiding last year's injury bug will be the difference-maker. Who's right?
• How would you improve baseball?
  May as well take advantage of an uneventful week in baseball to muse about what could make it better. I'm not crazy about some of these suggestions, but I've long been behind Christina Kahrl's idea to make relievers face off against more than just one batter: Her proposal: "Any pitcher has to face a minimum of three batters in an inning or complete that inning before he may be removed from a game.... The goal is to cut down on the shuffling from the 'pen and the interminable committee meetings that can make the last three innings of action in a ballgame seem anything but active." I'm all in favor of speeding up the game. To set up somewhat of a straw-man, purists who oppose efforts to speed up games are mistaken that history favors their view. Before night games, umpires routinely prodded players to hurry up the action to avoid calling games for darkness.
• Barry's in Brazil
  Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, with some other former players and with assistance from MLB International, is hosting Elite Camps next month in Brazil to instruct the best junior (14-17) talent in the area. Good to see MLB extending its reach down there, because according to baseball-reference there have been no MLB players from Brazil, Argentina, or Peru. That's less than Russia (8!), Austria-Hungary (4), Saudi Arabia (1), and "Atlantic Ocean" (1?).

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Sheldon wonders what the Prince Fielder deal means for Joey Votto
His conclusion is "not much". He's right, in that we all knew Votto was going to command a princely ransom in two years long before the news of Fielder's deal. I think the news is still a bit of cold water on the face of Reds fans though, as the actually dollars and cents of keeping him here in Cincy have come into a sharper focus.

Votto is one of the elite 1Bs in baseball, right up there with Prince, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Miguel Cabrera. All of these guys are making something between $20 mil and $25 mil per year over seven to ten year deals. Votto will be 30 when he hits free agency, so he's not likely to get a nine or ten year deal like Prince (who's 28) and Albert (who's a demi-god), but Tex's eight years and $180 mil seems a very realistic possibility for our guy. That's not strictly-speaking impossible for the Reds to pull off, but yeah, it's kind of unlikely. But who cares about that. They're gonna win two World Series before then and make everything totally cool.

Blog Red Machine weighs in on the Roy Oswalt rumors
and makes the case that the Reds would be better off with Homer Bailey than Roy Oswalt. Problem is, he did a poor job of making that case. Mostly because that case isn't really there to be made. His basic argument is that RoyO's ground ball rate is down the past few years, and that he will cost more money than Homer.

I think some of us are forgetting just how great RoyO's been over his career. He boasts a career FIP of 3.35. His career ERA+ is 133. Though his strikeout rate and groundball rate are down from his prime years, he's still as stingy as ever with the walks. As for the injury concern, it's certainly legitimate. A pitcher with a bad back is always going to give me pause. But last year was the first year since '03 that he missed significant time. He's been remarkably healthy his entire career. And he's only going to be 34 next season. That's no spring chicken, but I'm pretty sure there is still some left in his tank.

It's all probably moot, as the Reds don't really have the cash to give Oswalt. So this conversation is almost entirely hypothetical. But make no mistake about it: Roy Oswalt would easily be the 3rd best starter on this team if he were signed tomorrow. He is better than Homer Bailey. He is better than Mike Leake. Hell, I even made a bet yesterday that his '12 season will be better than Johnny Cueto's. I realize that's something of a reach, but jeez louise. This guy has been one the best and most durable starting pitchers of the last decade. It should go without saying that the Reds would be extremely fortunate to have him.

Coco to go-go to To-To
Francisco Cordero signed a one year deal with the Blue Jays for $4.5 mil. He'll serve as the set-up man to their newly-acquired closer Sergio Santos. If reports from earlier in the winter are correct, Coco turned down a two-year deal from the Reds worth something like $12-14 mil. That was most definitely a mistake. Instead, the Reds got a superior pitcher in Ryan Madson for half the cost. Also, the Reds will receive a comp draft pick this coming June. Put another tick on the chalk board for ol' Walt.

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• Leake lands on Verducci's List
  For the third year in a row, a Red makes the dreaded Verducci List and is now doomed to an injury-riddled season. Meh. I think Mike Leake is a different story from Homer Bailey and Travis Wood. For one, he just barely passed the 30-inning increase threshold required to make the list. Second, the Reds closely monitored Leake’s pitch count in 2011, capping him at 114 pitches and letting him go over 100 in just eight starts. Third, Leake does not have a violent throwing motion or otherwise display poor mechanics. Still, you never know with young pitchers. The Reds could certainly use 180 quality innings from Leake to shore up the middle of the rotation.
• Peering into the Mat Latos crystal ball
  The SweetSpot Blog compiles a list of similar 23 year-old pitchers, and then looks at how they did the next four seasons. Of the 18 comps, there's an array of below-average (Jeremy Bonderman) to the divine (Pedro). But who are the most relevant comps? Like Latos, Andy Benes stood 6-foot-6 and threw hard. He also came up with the Padres. Benes remained a solid pitcher (155 wins) but never took his game to the next level. So Reds fans can perhaps hope for the CC Sabathia career path. Through age 23, Sabathia had already pitched four seasons in the big leagues, with a 4.12 ERA. He improved his strikeout and walk rates at age 24, improved even more at age 25 and won a Cy Young Award at age 26.
• Marty and Thom to broadcast "multiple" games together next year
  Aww! The father-son pair will work together in the radio booth for three or four series. No word yet on whether George Grande, Sean Casey, and some of the other part-timers will return in 2012.
• 10 things you've already forgotten about Sean Marshall
  The Enquirer brings the arcania you've been craving on the Reds' new lefty fireman. Like fellow southpaw Bill Bray, Marshall went to college in Virginia, at VCU. Unlike Bray, he leads his school's alums in major league Wins (with 32). But he's well behind the Reds' all-time Wins leader for a graduate from a Virginia college: Eppa Rixey (Virginia, '12) tallied 266 Wins en route to the Hall of Fame.
• The Trade of all Trades - 40 years later
  The Reds fleeced Houston on Nov. 29, 1971, obtaining the final quarter of the Great 8 as well as a valuable pitcher. Who did Houston get? Lee May and 2B/LFJimmy Stewart, who sounds as polite as his name suggests. Stewart on leaving the Reds: "Our two kids, 5 and 7 years old, they were doing great in school and really liked it here, and I loved playing for the Reds. Loved everything about 'em. Loved the way they ran things, right on down to the no facial hair. First class. Yes sir, I hated leaving the Reds." Stewart later came back to Cincinnati - as a scout. Erardi notes that it was Stewart "who wrote the famous scouting report on Oakland before the World Series that convinced Reds manager Lou Piniella that the Reds would upset the A's."

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The reaction on this blog to the Reds' reported $2.5M, one-year deal with Ryan Ludwick has been overwhelmingly negative. It's not for nothing - considering his free-falling numbers at the plate over the last three seasons - but the move needs some perspective. Whether or not they had a chance to acquire a significantly better outfielder, they didn't. Carlos Beltran and Seth Smith came and went.

By mid-January, the Reds had vastly improved their pitching staff but were faced with the left field bargain bin. They picked out former Cardinal Ryan Ludwick. Meanwhile, the best the team may have been able to do at this stage in the offseason (and perhaps in the context of their overall off-season strategy) was a Kosuke Fukudome or a Cody Ross.

Ludwick made his name is 2008 at age 29, slashing .299/.375/.591 en route to an All Star appearance and Silver Slugger award. He's been on the downslope since then, in both power and on-base-getting, with a .237/.310/.363 campaign split between San Diego and Pittsburgh last season. His ISO hit a career low, but so did his BABIP, while his walk rate (at 9.1%) was higher than it's ever been. He also spent 420 plate appearances in the offense-sapping grip of PETCO Park.

At age 33, moving to an offense-friendly environment, there's hope for a rebound. Coincidentally or not, Ludwick hit a number of deep flies to right field in San Diego that would likely be home runs in Cincinnati. He's also a capable fielder. From 2007-2010, he recorded at least 2.0 WAR while playing across the outfield. A GABP-aided bump in his hitting could make him a 2.0 WAR player again - though that is probably his ceiling.

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• So why has Ryan Madson been so effective?
  The answer, as you may know, is his changeup: Last season, Madson got 44 left-handed hitters out with his changeup .... He allowed only two hits and one walk (to Prince Fielder) with the pitch. The article also notes that Madson's change gets 10" of break (very good), generating a lot of swings even though it usually fell outside of the zone. 'mache also marvels at Madson's changeup: This comes in on average at 10 mph slower than Madson’s mid-90s fastball, and last season, induced a 33% swing and miss rate in batters.... Essentially, 1 in every 3 pitches Madson throws is a changeup. 1 in every 3 changeups is a whiff. That’s pretty good. The MLB average FOR CHANGEUPS was around 12% swing-and-miss last year.
• For the fluffy, human interest side of the Madson signing, here's a 2011 interview
  What do closers do when they're not closing? I rock crawl.... In Southern California, and that’s all we did: Drive trucks and climb hills and rocks. You’ve got a cage surrounding you, and you’re going a mile an hour. If you get into trouble, you just tip over. If you're looking for a more business-y article on how Madson's deal reflects on the closer market, Tom Verducci talks about why teams are paying less for relievers. He also notes that we still don't know whether there will be an extra wildcard in 2012.
• The new Ma-sty Boy?
  On Friday, the Reds signed to minor league deals a couple of lefty relievers - Ron Mahay and Clay Zavada. The 40-year-old Mahay-Mahay is well-traveled, having pitched for 8 teams in a 14-year career. He owns a 3.83 career ERA (120 ERA+) and rates of 1.7 K/BB and 1.2 HR/9. He spent all of 2011 in the minors. Zavada had a solid 2009 but has spent the past two years in the minors. Walt: "It's more for depth." 2r2d notes that with the signing of Zavada, Sam LeCure has gained a potential mustache buddy and/or rival.
• Sheldon looks at what could be the next moves
  We've been over the fairly uninspiring list of potential Leftfielders. I'm partial to Kosuke Fukudome, who gets on base and may be able to maintain effectiveness throughout an entire season if he's given enough rest. But the pickings are slim here. Dave Cameron suggests a trade for Seth Smith, which sounds like a good idea but obviously depends on Colorado's willingness.

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