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Red Reposter - Where Were You When You Heard The Reds Re-signed Ramon Hernandez?

Ramon Hernandez will be back next year, but could that affect the contract status of guys like Jonny Gomes and Jared Burton?

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Ramon Hernandez will be back next year, but could that affect the contract status of guys like Jonny Gomes and Jared Burton?

Poll
How do you feel about the Hernandez signing?

  200 votes | Results

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65 comments  |  0 recs

More on the Hernandez signing

As long as he's catching and not playing first base, Hernandez should provide decent value to the Reds in 2010.

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

As long as he's catching and not playing first base, Hernandez should provide decent value to the Reds in 2010.

Below is an attempt to value Ramon Hernandez properties (here's Slyde's original article on the signing from this afternoon):

HittingCHONE has Hernandez as a -9 RAA hitter per 150G.  ZiPS is similar in its projection.  Given that Hernandez has been a starter the last many years, I think we can treat CHONE's projected playing time as reasonable guesstimate given that he's an aging catcher who now has an injury history.  So, in 54% playing time (380 PA's; Hanigan should still get to play), converted to wins, that puts him at 0.6 wins below average as a hitter.

Fielding: Based on SB/CS/WP/PB/E rates (methods and 2007 data here), I have him at +3 runs this past season, -8 runs in 2008, and +0 in 2007.  A 5/4/3 weighted average those numbers puts him at -1 RAA behind the plate.  Fan Scouting Report gives him an overall rating of 3.2, which is an average rating for catchers.  Given all of this, I think we can be confident in calling him a dead-on average fielding catcher.

Catching position adjustment is +1.25 wins/season, and replacement offset is +2.25 wins/season, which combined and pro-rated, adds 1.9 wins to his total.  So:

2010 Projected Value
Hitting: -0.6 wins
Fielding: +0 wins
Position adjustment + replacement: +1.9 wins
Total: 1.3 wins above replacement in 2010.

For 2011, we can apply a half-win of aging (might be generous), and put him at +0.8 wins above average.

Valuing wins is tricky business given the economic environment.  But if we assume that free agent salaries this offseason will be close to where they were the last three offseasons--about $4.4 per WAR--then this would put Hernandez's value at:
2010: $5.7 million
2011: $3.5 million

Sheldon reports he signed for $3 million this year and $3.25 million in 2011 if he appears in 74% of Reds games next year (which is well above his projected playing time).  You can add $1 million to his contract for 2010 though, because the Reds paid a $1M buyout to get out of the last contract.  Even so,this looks like a good deal for the Reds, assuming no sudden old-catcher-falling-off-a-cliff syndrome....though maybe that last concern is why the deal is apparently a bit discounted for 2010.

Update: CTrent reports that the buyout is actually a part of the $3 million.  That pushes this deal further into the "decent little bargain" territory.  

Regarding Hanigan: his offensive projection is roughly equal to Hernandez, and defensively he rates as an elite defensive catcher.  Hanigan should be the starter in this case.  He probably won't be, but again, I think Hernandez is likely to miss enough time next year that Hanigan will still play quite a bit.  Hope so, anyway.

132 comments  |  1 recs |

Red Reposter - Is Jocketty the Best GM in the Central?

Thank a few veterans today.

Thank a few veterans today.

  • The Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game can be seen here
    If you are like me and dont get MLB Network, this is your chance to catch Chris Heisey, Yonder Alonso, and Mike Leake tear it up against their elite prospect peers. Thanks to Sharks for the heads-up in the FanShots.

  • The Crawfish Boxes takes a look at the GMs of the NL Central
    Here's what they say about our own Walt Jocketty:

    "The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

    The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot."

    Check out the full article to see how Jocko compares to the other GMs in the NL Central.

Continue reading this post »

30 comments  |  0 recs |

Red Reposter - How Much Do You Want Ramon Hernandez Back?

Ramon Hernandez poses with World Series Champion New York Yankee Melky Cabrera.  Congratulations BubbaFan!

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Ramon Hernandez poses with World Series Champion New York Yankee Melky Cabrera. Congratulations BubbaFan!

  • THT is doing a series of player profiles for their fantasy department
    and here they take a look at Jay Bruce. It does a terrific job of breaking down his '09 season, and says the future is very, very bright for him. To wit:

    "While at first glance, Jay Bruce's 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn't seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question."

  • The Fay says the Reds are talking to Ramon Hernandez about his contract
    They hold an $8.5 mil option for next season, which should be declined. They are talking to him about possibly re-working the deal so that he can come back at a reduced rate. I would be ok with him coming back under the right conditions, like if they are paying him $2 mil and he doesnt play more than Ryan Hanigan does. I doubt either of those conditions would be met though.  Let us know what you think in the poll below.

Poll
What would you do with Ramon Hernandez?
Just pick up his option! We need a catcher badly!
8 votes
Try to bring him back, but only for $2-3 mil or so.
164 votes
Let him go! He's old and broken.
78 votes

250 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

43 comments  |  0 recs

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

  • The Fay has more Q's and A's
    "Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

    A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

    I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.

  • RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
    $15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon.  In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."

  • Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
    "One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."

  • Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
    and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

    Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list.  Hat tip to RML.

  • The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
    or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

    The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

    And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates.  I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.

  • FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
    and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.

  • It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
    I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

80 comments  |  1 recs |

Red Reposter - Are Walt and Dusty Seriously Considering Willy Taveras for CF Next Season?

There seems to be a high number of pictures in SBNation's AP photos bank of Dusty defending Willy T.  Here is one of  them.

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

There seems to be a high number of pictures in SBNation's AP photos bank of Dusty defending Willy T. Here is one of them.

  • The Fay answers some reader questions
    Question from Steve: My question is about the Reds’ current view of Willy Taveras. Do you think they will let him come to spring training and try to win the job from Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson, or do you think the Reds will try to move him in the offseason? Do you perceive a split between the way Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty view Taveras? My sense, from afar, is that as long as WT is around, Baker will play him too much. I’m not naive in thinking the Reds could get anything back for Taveras. They would have to trade him, along with paying part of his salary to interest any team. But my feeling (hope) is that is what they will do, just to take the controversy and temptation away.
    Answer: I think Taveras was Jocketty’s guy. But Baker loves the idea of speed at the top of lineup. I don’t think anyone thought Taveras would hit as little as he did or be as rough defensively. I think they would trade in a second if they could. But his $4 million salary makes that difficult. The center field job is Drew Stubbs’ to lose. The problem with Taveras is he doesn’t fit as a bench player. He has no power. He only plays center. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him designated for assignment.

    So Fay thinks the T-Virus could be DFA'd.  While that is the logical course of action, and most of us have hopefully forgotten all about him already because of Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson, he is still on the roster and is being paid $4 mil next season.  I'm not sayin' anything, I'm just sayin'...

  • MLBTradeRumors has been doing a "Trades Of The Decade" series
    and they reviewed the Griffey Trade a few days ago. I'm not going to go back into it because we all know everything about it, but Nick Masset is mentioned as a possible silver lining, described as a "closer of the future". It's not as thrilling as a few World Series', but I suppose I'll take it.

  • Doug Gray has been running down his top-40 prospects list this week
    I dont think anyone will be surprised to know that Yonder Alonso headlines the list. Check out 11-20, 21-30, and 31-40.  We here at RR will be doing our own top prospects list again this winter, so stay tuned.

  • Bill at RLN asks if Hal McRae, the recently ousted hitting coach for the Cards, would be an upgrade over Brook Jacoby
    I think the real problem with the offense is lack-of-talent, but it certainly couldnt hurt to have a hitting coach who preaches patience. I dont think McRae or Jacoby are that guy.

  • The Stadium Journey Blog visited GABP
    And he had a good time. "Great American Ball Park is a fabulous place to watch a baseball game. There are comfortable seats angled toward home plate, various standing areas with a perfect view of the field and plenty of attractions that will catch your eye. If you get the chance, be sure to visit home of the Cincinnati Reds. You won’t be disappointed."  There is a full breakdown and write-up of the whole stadium experience, so be sure to check it out.

  • Spring Training tickets are available for the Reds' inaugural season in Goodyear, AZ
    Single game tickets are not available, but you can order 15 or 30-game packages. You can even get a mixed package of Reds and Indians games, which is pretty neat.

  • Rob Neyer says Ryan Howard is basically an equal player to...Shin-Soo Choo?
    I know all abouts Choo, who was the MVP of my fantasy team this year. But Howard won an NL MVP!! He's led the NL in RBIs 3 of the past 4 seasons!! Neyer is ever the cantankerous curmudgeon, no?

46 comments  |  0 recs

Red Reposter - Should the Reds Trade Coco? Can They?

Bryan Price is your new pitching coach.  I dont have any wiener jokes.

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Bryan Price is your new pitching coach. I dont have any wiener jokes.

  • Hall o' Famer Hal doesnt seem tremendously excited that the Reds hired Bryan Price to be the new pitching coach
    He says he would have preferred Ted Power, who could jump ship for a better job in another organization, Mario Soto, who likely didnt want the job anyway, or former Reds pitching coach Don Gullett. Price seems like a solid pick to me though.

  • The Reds held the grand opening of their new spring training complex in Goodyear, AZ on Saturday
  •  and Jim Misudek as the pictures to prove it
  • Jim also tells us Mike Lincoln pitched in the final game of the instructional league
    No matter what you think about how overpaid he is, we all should tip our caps to this guy. After all the parts of his body he's had replaced over the years he's practically a Terminator.

  • Here's a sample from this week's "Ask Hal"
    Q If the Reds really are cash-strapped, as you wrote, do you think they could trade Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Francisco Cordero? A team in the Reds’ situation can’t afford that kind of cash outlay for a closer, can they? — Paul, Dayton
    A I’d trade Cordero in an eye flick and help him pack. Saves are the most overrated statistic in baseball. Most mean nothing. Get three outs in mostly easy situations and, wham, another save. Can the Reds afford to pay Cordero $25 million over the next two years while they try to build a competitive team? Don’t think so. Coco needs to go-go.

    I would love to see Coco moved this winter, but I cant envision a situation where it could happen.  It would take a good team needing an upgrade at closer and the money and penchant to overpay for it.  The Phillies will probably look around after the year that Brad Lidge had, but Lidge will make just as much as Coco the next two years, and they also have significant monies tied into JC Romero and Ryan Madsen.  So if they look for an upgrade, it will probably be a cheap one. 

    The Cubs and Angels could both be looking for new closers this winter as well.  But even in the unlikely event that a partner is found, I wouldnt expect anything of intrigue to be coming back.  The Reds need to free up the money and shouldnt kill a deal over a few middling prospects.

  • In minor trade matters
    the Reds finalized the David Weathers trade last week. They got an undisclosed amount of cash. Thus unceremoniously ends an era in Cincinnati.  Godspeed Stormy!

  • Red Reposter NEWS FROM HELL
    As of Friday morning, the Yankees had yet to sell all of the tickets available for Game 1 against the Angels. I couldnt track down whether they eventually did or not, but it is really a black eye on the face of The Greatest Franchise in the World.  The House That Caligula Built isnt looking too good, is it?

  • Speaking of the Yankees
    Matt Carruth at FanGraphs says A-Rod is every bit the clutch performer that Mr. November is, and all his computer friends can prove it.

24 comments  |  0 recs

Red Reposter - The Search Begins for a New Pitching Coach

Hutch Award Nominee and Red Reporter Idol, Jonny Lee Gomes.

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Hutch Award Nominee and Red Reporter Idol, Jonny Lee Gomes.

21 comments  |  0 recs


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