Question: Of the guys who were recently promoted, who excites you the most? Chris Valaika, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco or even Logan Parker, who OPSed .949 in his rookie year? A month ago I would have said Frazier without thinking twice, but I've developed a grapefruit-sized manlove tumor for Valaika over the past month. He did not disappoint me last night...

Continue reading this post »

Question of the day: So what kind of expectations do you guys have for Devin Mesoraco? We selected him first in last year's draft, as a catcher out of Punxsutawney High School in Pennsylvania. He vaulted into the first round, and most people think he was drafted too high (out of our need for organizational depth at catcher.) He's said to be incredibly athletic, though he struggled in the Gulf Coast League last season with two bum thumbs. I expect a modest season for Devin in Dayton this year, OPSing about .750 with 8 or 9 homers in 300 ABs. He might not really flourish until next season.

Continue reading this post »

Question: What current or former Red does Jay Bruce remind you of the most? He's often compared to Dunn because they're both homegrown outfielders, but he doesn't walk, doesn't hit for quite as much power, is way faster and is a much better contact hitter. Reminds me of a 21-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. with slightly less on-base prowess.

Continue reading this post »

Question of the day: Homer Bailey had a nice but not terrific start last night -- I wouldn't be surprised if he's bored. If Walt wants to go with a youth movement and calls up Homer tomorrow, who should he jettison? Belisle? Fogg? Arroyo in a trade?

Continue reading this post »

Cumberland

Triple-A: The Bats matched Richmond run for run until the 11th inning, when Todd Coffey shocked the world and gave up the game-winning infield single as the Richmond Braves won 5-4. Coffey set that up by allowing a double and a walk and throwing a wild pitch. Despite all that, his ERA dropped to 16.20. Adam Rosales was 2 for 5 with a triple and a homer, Jay Bruce got the day off but got an intentional pass as a pinch-hitter and Danny Herrera allowed 1 hit and struck out 1 in 1.1 shutout innings. UP NEXT: New series at Norfolk, 7:15 tonight.

Double-A: Shaun Cumberland went 2 for 5 with a 3-run homer as Chattanooga rolled 10-4. Sean Henry was 2 for 5 with 2 RBIs, and Ben Jukich had a nice start, striking out 4 and allowing just 1 run in 6 innings. This was one of only 3 games of 12 played by the Reds, Bats and Lookouts this weekend against Braves teams that our guys won. UP NEXT: Brand new series with Tennessee, 7:15 tonight.

High A: Travis Wood went 7 shutout innings, striking out 4, as Sarasota beat Palm Beach 2-1. Ramon Geronimo threw another perfect inning of relief, and Chris Valaika was 1 for 4 to extend his hitting streak to 13 games. UP NEXT: Game 3 at Palm Beach, 7:05 tonight.

Low A: Justin Reed's 2-run homer in the 5th was all the scoring in Dayton's win. The Dragons had just 4 hits. Brandon Waring and Todd Frazier were both 0 for 3 with a strikeout and both fell to .298. UP NEXT: Home series vs. Quad Cities begins, 7 tonight.

Bruce

Triple-A: Jay Bruce was 0 for 4 as the Bats lost to Richmond 4-3. Bruce is having issues getting on base. He has walked only 5 times (!) this season with 105 at bats. His OPS is a pedestrian .807, but his OBP is a Corey Patterson-like .303. It's only 28 games in, and his power has been good. Alls I'm saying is he's far off his career .358 on-base percentage. UP NEXT: Game 4 at Richmond, 2 today.

Double-A: Sean Henry smacked his third homer of the season, but the Lookouts fell 2-1. Chattanooga got just 5 hits, failing to support a good start from James Avery, who got his first decision in 6 starts this season. He struck out 7 in 6 innings. UP NEXT: Game 5 at Mississippi, 2 today.

High A: Chris Valaika went 1 for 4 with another home run in Sarasota's 5-4 loss to Palm Beach. During his 12-game hitting streak, he has 25 hits, 4 homers and 17 RBIs. But like Jay Bruce, he has only 5 walks this year. Justin Turner and Juan Francisco added 2 hits apiece. UP NEXT: Game 2 at Palm Beach, 1 today.

Low A: Dayton pounded out 15 hits but managed to lose 10-7. Todd Frazier was 3 for 5, Brandon Waring was 2 for 3 and David Weathers threw another perfect inning of relief with 2 strikeouts. UP NEXT: Rubber match vs. Burlington, 2 today.

Thompson

Triple-A: Literally nothing excites me from Louisville's 9-1 loss to the other Braves. Jay Bruce had a pedestrian day, Matt Maloney's ERA ballooned to 7.24 and Chris Dickerson and Andy Green had a couple of hits in the lopsided loss. UP NEXT: Game 3 at Richmond, 7 tonight.

Double-A: Tonys Gutierrez went 4 for 4 and Chattanooga had 14 hits, but the Lookouts fell 6-4 to more Braves. B.J. Szymanski was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs, and Daryl Thompson had an excellent outing, allowing just 1 unearned run and striking out 6 in a no-decision. He still leads the Southern League with a 0.72 ERA. Carlos Fisher allowed a bunch of runs in the seventh to get Mississippi back in it. UP NEXT: Game 4 at the Braves, 8:05 tonight.

Geronimo

High A: Real-deal Chris Valaika went 2 for 4, but the host S-Reds lost 8-0 to Tampa. Look out for DR reliever Ramon Geronimo , who struck out the side in order in his inning and has been lights out this season. He has pitched 14.2 innings this season, striking out 21 (!), walking 3 (!!), allowing 5 hits (!!!) and no runs (!!!!). It's not the first year he's done this for us. UP NEXT: New Series at Palm Beach, 6 tonight.

Low A: David Weathers got an unusual rehab demotion and start, throwing 7 strikes in a perfect inning, and Matt Klinker struck out 6 in the next 7 innings as Dayton won 3-1.  Keltavious Jones was 2 for 4, and Brandon Waring was 1 for 2 with a double. Todd Frazier has dipped to a .292 batting average, and although his on-base and slugging percentages are still extremely strong, Chris Valaika probably has an edge on him for next year's No. 1 prospect. UP NEXT: Burlington at Dayton, 7 tonight.

Maybe the first month of the season has been a fluke, but as things stand right now I have to say that I'm more pessimistic than optimistic when it comes to the 2008 Cincinnati Reds. I'm pretty sure we're not going to be seeing a cover like the one above this November. Here's my reasoning:

- Paul Bako is going to get a lot worse. All the credit in the world to the guy for what he's done so far, but he's going to be 36 in June and he has a lifetime OPS+ of 64. He's never slugged over .358 in his career, and he's currently at .507 for the season. A lot of 0-3s are on the way.

- Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, and Jeff Keppinger have all been as good as we could have hoped, so I don't see improvement coming from those three.

- Aaron Harang probably is going to fall back to earth a little bit. I'm holding out some hope that he's on his way to a career year, but more than likely he's going to finish at his customary 3.75 or so ERA, which means he's been pitching over his head for the first month.

- Ken Griffey Jr. might be simply slumping, but he is killing the Reds hitting third. Griffey and then Phillips seems like it's an automatic two outs time after time after time.

- The bullpen, for being a Reds bullpen, has been great. Todd Coffey was really bad, but that problem's been fixed. I can't see it getting much better.

- The rotation, for being a Reds rotation, has also been great. I think Arroyo (assuming he's not hurt or anything) will get a lot better, but if the Reds aren't winning now with how decent the pitching has been than that doesn't bode well for the future.

- The roster construction this season is probably the poorest I have ever seen, which is pretty amazing given the past seven years. Any of the current problems would be excusable if they were singular, but when you add up the two lefthanded firstbaseman, the three catchers (Javier Valentin has had 6 at bats since April 17th), carrying Freel and Hopper, and then Freel and Hairston ... it's just too much. Pretty much every team is going to have weak spots, but the Reds seem to actively seek them out. Corey Patterson hitting leadoff and playing center field day in and day out is another great example.

This isn't the end of the world. A lot of smart people have been pointing towards 2009 as the Reds year to start contending again. But while I know that's always made sense, I still had hope that things might fall the Reds way in 2008. Not looking like that's going to happen.

Valaika

Triple-A: Jay Bruce was 0 for 3 with 2 RBIs and Kevin Barker homered as Louisville beat Richmond 11-8. Paul Janish was 1 for 4, and Ryan Hannigan, Andy Phillips, Luis Bolivar and Adam Rosales all had two hits. Todd Coffey gave up 2 runs in his first AAA appearance of the year. UP NEXT: Bats at Richmond, 7 tonight.

Double-A: Josh Roenicke got out of a pinch in the eighth but ran into trouble in the ninth, allowing two singles and a walk-off double as the Lookouts lost 7-6 at Mississippi. Shaun Cumberland was 2 for 4 to improve his league-leading on-base percentage to .468. Cody Strait and Tonys Gutierrez had 2 hits apiece. UP NEXT: Game 3 at Mississippi, 8 tonight.

High A: Chris Valaika's ownership of the Florida State League lingered into another month, although the S-Reds lost 5-2 to Tampa. Valaika was 2 for 4 with a homer and now leads the FSL in batting average (.388), OPS (1.014), slugging percentage (.612), total bases (71), RBIs (29), home runs (6) and hits (45, 10 more than the guy in second). Most of those are organizational highs, too. He was a third-round pick in 2006 and started hot in Billings, with a .907 OPS. He started well in Dayton last season before struggling at the end of the year in Sarasota. He's had no problems thus far in 2008. There's another guy in our system who put up similar numbers in his first three years. UP NEXT: Tampa rubber match, 7 tonight.

Low A: The Dragons were off, although Todd Frazier homered in the second game of a doubleheader on Wednesday. Game 1, Game 2. UP NEXT: Burlington at Dayton, 7 tonight.

Waring

Triple-A: Justin Lehr had another nice start, but this time he flew too close to a fellow undefeated and got burned as the Bats lost 4-3. Lehr struck out 9 (including his first 4 batters) and  Jay Bruce was 0 for 4 with a sac-fly RBI. Drew T. Anderson was 3 for 4 with a double, and David Weathers had a perfect inning with a strikeout in a rehab start. UP NEXT: The Bats play Toledo today at 11 in the morning for little-kiddies-visit-the-park-and-ruin-the-experience-for-grown-ups day.

Low A: Brandon Waring returned to the Dragons' starting lineup (as a DH) and hit two home runs -- including the go-ahead shot in the ninth -- as Dayton  won 3-2 at Peoria. Waring had pinch-hit once since last Wednesday, so I assume something was wrong. When I find out what, I'll let you know. He now has a system-best 7 homers (in 21 games) on the season. (These were his first homers since April 16, when he hit 2.) He moved into fifth in the Midwest League in OPS. Todd Frazier is fourth, and Keltavious Jones is third. UP NEXT: Doubleheader at Peoria, starting at 6 tonight.

Chattanooga and Sarasota were off but resume today. On their day off, I heard they were searching through these clips -- the best and worst Soulja Boy spin-off videos on the Internet.

Continue reading this post »