After a frustrating and boring Winter Meetings, Walt Jocketty claimed that a trade for a starting pitcher was still a strong possibility, but he expressed frustration at the demands other teams were making for their arms. My first inclination was to assume other teams were trying to gouge the Reds, but given Jocketty's recent hesitance to trade any prospects of note, there is a very real chance that it is Walt who is being unreasonable. Further adding to the intrigue is a Q&A with Walt from a Pensacola newspaper that was published yesterday. In it, Jocketty says:

We're looking mainly for pitching, so I think we made enough progress that we may be able to do some things in the next few weeks, next few days...There are two deals we can do right now, but it would probably take a lot of our top prospects and I'm always a little nervous about doing that. So I'll spend a little more time analyzing that.

My guess is the deals are for two of James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, and Jair Jurrjens. It could, of course, be for anyone, but these are the three pitchers the team has most frequently been linked to in rumors. So while we'll likely never know the specific players that have been discussed, we can look to recently completed trades for guidance as to what Walt can reasonably expected to give up. This post will look at a few relevant trades from this year and last and try to determine what they might mean for Walt in his quest for an "ace".

Before we start, a couple disclaimers. First, teams will obviously value different players differently. Yonder Alonso might have significant value to one team (the Rays) but very little to another (the Braves). Second, all trades are not created equally. For example, the A's were clearly motivated to move Trevor Cahill, just like the Rays were motivated to move Matt Garza and the Royals Zack Greinke last year. All indications are that the Rays are not looking to move James Shields, and that potentially changes the equation significantly.

Despite this, we can look at recent trades for starters and discover what an objectively fair package might be for the various pitchers the Reds have been linked to. We'll start (after the jump) with the trade with the most relevance to Reds fans: The trade that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs back in January

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"The Reds have no money and are talking to no one."

This is a refrain that, though factually inaccurate, has become the rallying cry of resignation for this off-season. Sure, the Reds have a little money, and yes, they are talking to a number of folks about possible trades and free agent signings. But watching baseball's Men of Action (namely, the Marlins and Angels) get their work done in dramatically emphatic fashion these past few days has only served to deepen our collective chasm of apathy. The phrase may not be actually true, but the feeling certainly is.

Walt Jocketty knows how you feel, man. When asked about how the Winter Meetings were going, he answered, "Very frustrating. It's that way every year. You plan. We've been working on stuff since the Trade Deadline. You start looking at things, you start putting things together and your plan. You start trying to work on it. You start putting it into play, and you're not able to do anything."

Mr. Jocketty will have to excuse me if I'm not sympathetic to his frustration. It's impossible to know why the Reds aren't able to do anything. Is it because other teams are being unrealistic in their trade demands? Or is it because the Reds are? Without being privy to those conversations, we can't know. What we do know, though, is that this organization has been risk averse - one could say pathologically so - over the past few seasons. Shipping Jonny Gomes to Washington in exchange for a few inconsequential minor leaguers is the only - the only - trade this team has made in the past year.

It's obvious that Jocketty can clearly see the weaknesses of this ballclub. He's stated numerous times this off-season that priority #1 is a front-end starter. And there is still plenty of time left before Spring Training to find one. But watching the Winter Meetings come and go without any movement at all - they didn't even make a pick in the Rule 5 draft - is almost too much to bear at this point. The whole reason for the Winter Meetings is so teams can get together and make deals. Everyone is in the holiday spirit or something like that. But still, nothing.

I know in a more rational frame of mind that I would be more than willing to accept Walt's explanation. But right now I'm pissed off. We most likely only have another two years for this team to win a World Series, and last year was squandered in large part due to complacency and risk-aversion. The clock is ticking ever louder. The Reds must take bold and decisive action. I just hope we have the right man in office to push the button.

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day for the Reds, though the rest of baseball was busy gettin' busy. A number of trades went down, with Angel Pagan going to San Francisco in exchange for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez and Sergio Santos going from the South Side of Chicago to Toronto. Albert Pujols is reportedly mulling three different $200+ mil offers. We'll update the front page if any thing big happens with the Reds.

Given that the Reds have minuscule money/targets for free agents, I'll be breaking down trade targets division by division until Walt Jocketty and the Reds track down a few impact players, while most certainly using my usual bias and fact-less hunches to identify my personal preferences.  Keep in mind I'm assuming the Reds and their front office are in the mood to win "now."

After breaking down the NL West, it was pretty clear that the RR masses are agreed on the needs of the 2012 Reds.  Mat Latos, with 42% of the votes, was the clear pick as the best trade target that fit the criteria.  Chad Billingsley (33%) came in second.

Tonight we'll check out the AL West, home to solid pitching, solid pitcher's parks, and a mixture of no-name and aging overpaid position players. 

Let's break it down!

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Jonathan Papelbon was given a 4 year, $50M contract by the Phillies last week. If he averages 65 innings a year in Philly, he'll be paid at a rate of $192K per inning. There are plenty of celebrities and pundits on the speaking circuit who have commanded a higher appearance fees, but they generally stick around for at least a half hour - maybe even a Q&A and/or book signing. Although, with Papelbon's epic stop-downs between pitches, he's a better value than he seems. It also wouldn't be out of the league of what Francisco Cordero was paid over the life of his contract with the Reds: $162,233-per-IP.

Though I assume Reds are still interested in bringing Cordero back at the right price, they at least nominally have a vacancy as Cordero tests the markets as a free agent. So what does the Papelbon signing mean for that closer market? The Sox and Phillies both play at the highest end of the market, so it probably doesn't affect the pool of teams that would put out offers for CoCo's services. But it does at least set an upper bound for what closers will be paid this offseason: $12.5M AAV and four guaranteed years. No one is going to be giving Cordero his old contract, which paid him $12.125M in base salary over 3 of its four years.

Let's look at a quick 'n' dirty power ranking of the remaining free agent closers and closer candidates.

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I'm convinced Halloween is a conspiracy, designed to send us all into sugar highs to distract us from the fact that baseball is over.  I think its Mars Incorporated's way of taking the focus off the fact the Chicago Cubs are once again not hosting home playoff games at Wrigley, and on to the fact that there are millions of chocolate bars that our kids need to eat.  Go figure!  What smashed pumpkins, frost advisories, and the trending of #ScottBoras mean, though, is that it's officially Trade Rumor season. 

Given that the Reds have miniscule money/targets for free agents, I'll be breaking down trade targets division by division until Walt Jocketty and the Reds track down a few impact players, while most certainly using my usual bias and factless hunches to identify my personal preferences.  Keep in mind I'm assuming the Reds and their front office are in the mood to win "now."

Tonight, we start with the NL West, they of 3 great pitching parks and the most hitter friendly field of our generation.  Nothing like complicating the issues. 

Onwards and upwards, Walter!

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There was a flurry of minor activity on the first business day since the end of the postseason. Today was the deadline to decide on 2012 contract options and the Reds also cleared space on the 40-man roster in advance of open free agent season. The team has until November 19 to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft and until November 23 to decide whether to offer arb to ranked free agents (Cordero and Hernandez, both Type A).

For more info on the offseason than anyone not working in a major league front office requires, check out the "Hot Stove" section of the sidebar or the newly-minted Red Reporter Calendar, which captures key hot stove dates and offseason events of interest.

Here's what happened:

• Matt Maloney went to the Twins on a waiver claim
• Francisco Cordero's $12M option was declined
• Brandon Phillips' $12M option was exercised
• Jared Burton and Daryl Thompson were outrighted off the 40 man roster

On December 3rd, the Reds announced that they had signed Bronson Arroyo to a 3 year, $35 mil extension.  At the time of the signing, I was not impressed and my view of it has not changed much.  Since then, we have learned that much of Arroyo's money is deferred, which softens the rough edges a bit, but we've also learned much more about the pitching market.  Wandy Rodriguez agreed to a 3 year, $34 mil extension with the Astros yesterday, which is pretty much identical to the deal Arroyo signed (sans the deferments, and the fact that Wandy was in his last year of arb).  So it made me wonder just how the Arroyo deal stacks up to other deals that have been signed this off-season.

Below is a list of free agent pitchers (culled from MLBTR's FA tracker) who signed for $5 mil or more this off-season (plus Wandy and minus Cliff Lee, because that's not fair) with their last three seasons of IP, FIP, and WAR included:

It's also important to note that Garland, De La Rosa, Lilly, and Westbrook all signed before Arroyo's extension, so a fairly clear picture of the market had been set.  As you can see, Arroyo's deal is nearly identical to both Lilly's and Wandy's, though they have been clearly superior pitchers the past few years.  There are no perfect comparisons for Arroyo performance-wise, but his closest analogs are Garland and Pavano who are being paid significantly less (that Garland deal looks like an absolute steal for the Trolley Dodgers). 

So it looks like the Arroyo deal is a significant overpay when compared to the rest of the market.  Of course, this assessment ignores the special circumstances of the deal, like the deferments and especially the restructuring of the option.  But the Reds had the choice to decline the option and let Arroyo go as a free agent, which is looking more and more like the best choice in hindsight.  Only the Lilly deal had been completed when the Reds made the decision on the option, so there were a number of other pitchers out there at the time.  It seems Walt overestimated the market when he agreed to pay the $11.5 mil.  The best road was probably to decline the option and attempt to re-sign Arroyo as a free agent.  The Reds probably could have gotten him for Pavano/Westbrook money instead of Lilly/Wandy money.