Scott Rolen might someday trace an unjust Hall of Fame snub to his 2005 collision with Dodgers' 1B Hee Sop-Choi - an incident that resulted in a labrum tear and ultimately required surgery. The following season, without the help of even one stem cell, he played 147 games and slashed .296/.369/.518. Rolen's shoulder began nagging him toward the end of 2007, requiring surgery for scar tissue removal. The next season, he injured his finger at the beginning of the season and experienced more shoulder troubles toward the end, but pieced together 108 OPS+ season as a Blue Jay.

He increased his production at the plate and attendance record in each of the next two seasons, appearing in 133 games with the 2010 Reds and helping lead the team to a division championship. Then Rolen went under the knife for his shoulder again late last July, after wearing down late in 2010 and seeming lost at the plate throughout 2011.

Depending on how you count them, Rolen will be mounting his third comeback from a major injury this season. This time he'll be doing it as a 37-year old. Anecdotally and statistically, Rolen is still a very good defender at third. His left shoulder injury doesn't affect his throwing arm and doesn't seem to significantly limit his ability to put his glove in the right place.

Slate called the labrum tear "baseball's most fearsome injury." While it's painful, nagging and career-threatening, most of the sensationalism is about pitchers and their throwing arms. Where I see Rolen's injury mattering most is in his swing and, consequently, his plate approach. He's already altered his batting stance at least once to accommodate his shoulder issue, likely sacrificing some power (though it's hard both to explain 2010 and to figure out how much to chalk up to normal aging). Last season, Rolen didn't have trouble making contact, but he did walk at a lower rate than he ever has while swinging at more balls out of the strike zone.

He only appeared in 65 games in 2011, so I don't know how much to read into his performance. Rolen's plate vision, an attribute that actually improves in many veterans, is likely still there. His walk rate dipped permanently below 10% after 2005, but he's been good for around 9% since then and was at 9.3% in 2010 (after altering his batting stance).

The body just might not be willing. If his bat speed and torque remain diminished, he may compensate by reaching for pitches he ordinarily would have taken for a ball. The extent to which his strength and confidence returns will determine his success this year and ability to avoid a bizarre, Star Wars surgery.

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Keeping the pipeline of cost-controlled talent flowing is critical to succeeding as a small or mid-market team. It's especially important for the Reds, given their outflow of talent during this offseason's trading frenzy. It's going to get harder with the amateur draft and international signing period spending caps under the new CBA. In addition to the two supplemental picks, they'll receive in the 2012 Amateur Draft, the Reds still have the chance to re-stock their farm by staying aggressive in pursuing international talent.

The new CBA, which phases in winning-percentage based spending limits over several years, limits teams to spending $2.9M during the 2012-13 period - which begins July 2, 2012. Spending above that limit is subject to penalty. Players that have logged a certain amount of time in an MLB-recognized international professional league and have achieved free agency, do not fall into that void. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo explains:

Players in leagues deemed to be professional (those in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Cuba apply), are at least 23 years old and have played a certain number of years in those leagues can be signed without the money counting against the pool. Yoenis Cespedes, the 26-year-old outfielder who is a free agent after defecting from Cuba for example, would not count against the pool. Neither would Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish, should he be posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters. But the money spent on Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman, who was 22 when he signed with the Reds almost two years ago, would have counted against the pool.

International players, especially those with limited scouting information behind the veil in Cuba, carry plenty of risk. In some cases, you can't even be sure of their actual name and age. Fausto Carmona (nêe Roberto Heredia) may be an outlier, but there's a mountain of uncertainty that can stem from the long-tail development of teenage players and the myriad cultural and baseball adjustments that must be made by importing talent.

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On the occasion of Homer Bailey getting a raise, I wondered whether we should reasonably expect a corresponding leap in performance. Homer and the Reds settled on a salary of $2.43M, which happens to be over five times the amount he made last year while hovering at league minimum. Do we expect him to be 5x better this season? Well, of course we do not.

Slightly less absurdly, we do expect him to be worth more than he's paid. His 2011 season would have been valued at $6.6M on the open market, per FanGraphs. The measured expectation for Bailey's 2012 lies somewhere in between his former pedigree and the trend of his production entering his Age 26 season. The challenge in evaluating Homer Bailey for 2012 is bound up in those expectations that preceded his major league debut. He peaked on Baseball America's league-wide list of prospects at #9 prior to the 2008 season. A Billboard on the interstate (which one, I don't remember) reading "He has come" showed up around the time of his 2007 debut. He was the Reds future ace even before Bronson Arroyo was a gleam in Wayne Krivsky's eye.

But now, Homer has spent 436 innings and portions of five seasons in the majors. Fans and fundits have largely stopped making pronouncements about this being the year he "puts it all together," breaks out and grows into his anointed role as staff ace. He's yet to post an ERA below 4.40 or an ERA+ above 93. I think the disappointment in Homer never being the Second Coming of whoever he was supposed to be the Second Coming of, though, misses the point.

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A few months ago, riverfront76 proclaimed this off-season was to be "The Most Important Winter of All Time". Here's the take away:

"The Reds aren't the best team on paper heading into the winter, but they're close...possibly as close as they've been since some unknown 28 year old third baseman named Albert Pujols showed up in Cardinals camp all those years ago. The void the team has been waiting for has arrived, and it's time to take advantage. I don't know right now which opportunities will be there. Which free agents, which trade targets to chase will be tackled in time. For now, a hope and a plea: the goal is again within range. Take the shot."

Oh boy, did they ever take the shot. The "void" rf76 talked about has become colloquially known as "The Votto Window", or the two years that the Reds have Joey Votto under contract. The availability of one the best hitters in baseball, coupled with the relative weakness of the rest of the NL Central, gives the Reds the best chance they have seen in years to go for it all. Walt Jocketty recognized it for what it was, put on his lucky space commander helmet, and went for the gusto.

The trade targets he chased were the best available starting pitcher (Mat Latos) and the best available reliever (Sean Marshall). The big free agent acquisition he targeted - in what I think is one of the most brilliant tactical moves in recent baseball history - was the best closer on the market (Ryan Madson), and that after waiting for prices to fall to nearly absurd levels. We all knew that the pitching staff was the big weakness that kept the team around .500 last year. It now looks very formidable.

Viewed through the lens of the Votto Window strategy, these moves look nothing short of brilliant. There is a very strong case to be made that the Reds are the team to beat in the NL Central heading into the 2012 season. This is all incredibly exciting, right? The Votto Window is wide open and the team is poised to chuck a cinder block through it! Well, hold on. Here's why you should be even MORE excited.

There is no debate that Joey Votto is the best player on this team. There is some debate as to whether or not he'll be here after the two years is up. But for the sake of argument, let's assume the Votto Window is only two years. What happens then? Well, presumably the Reds will be left a shell of a team and will be forced to rebuild. But wait. Let's take a look at a projected Vottoless roster in 2014. The rotation will still have Latos and Cueto for another two years. Mike Leake, too. Aroldis Chapman should have at least another two years. Jay Bruce will still be under contract for at least two years. Same for Drew Stubbs. Devin Mesoraco will still have four years of control left. That is a very solid core of extremely talented players. And all of them will still be in their primes. Add in the fact that the current big money contracts (Bronson Arroyo, Scott Rolen, Ryan Madson, and presumably Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto) will be off the books, and not only will the team have an impressive core to build around, but the money to do the necessary building.

So I don't know about this whole Votto Window strategy. While I'm absolutely thrilled to see this team dominate over the next two seasons, I'm equally confident that will continue to be contenders in the years that follow. This is the best looking Reds baseball team we have seen in a few decades. And that is the genius of Walt Jocketty.

Over the weekend, the Angels and Howie Kendrick reportedly hammered out a contract extension for four years and $33.5 mil. The deal buys out Kendrick's final arbitration year, as well as three free agent years. If I had to guess, I would assume the payment outlay is something like $5.5/7.5/9/11 plus a buyout on an option year or something like that. I'm sure the details will surface over the next few days. The most important thing though is that the established value of just over $8 mil per year, and around $9.5 mil for his free agent seasons. It's just shy of the four year, $38.5 mil deal Rickie Weeks signed last winter. Regardless of what the actual numbers are, the contract will likely have a serious impact on the ongoing Brandon Phillips contract negotiations.

Kendrick and Phillips are actually fairly similar hitters over their careers. Take a look:

A few things that stand out: most obvious is the fact that Phillips has more than 2.5 full seasons' worth of PAs over Kendrick at this point. This is in part due to the fact that Phillips is older (he'll be 31 this season, Kendrick will be 28), but it's worth mentioning that Phillips didn't play his way into the lineup until he was 25, while Kendrick was a starter at 23. But also, they are very different players in terms of durability. Kendrick has struggled over his five seasons to stay on the field, only playing in more than 105 games just twice (his two most recent seasons). Phillips is the picture of consistency though, playing in more than 140 games each of the last six seasons. So while Kendrick may have the advantage in youth, Phillips mitigates that with a much better health history.

The most striking thing to me is their nearly identical slash lines. Their SLG numbers are exactly the same, and Kendrick holds a seven point advantage in OBP. Their park-adjusted stats show just how much home park can affect a hitter. Kendrick gets a boost for playing in pitcher-friendly Anaheim while Phillips gets knocked for GABP. The difference in parks adds up to an eight or nine point difference in their park-adjusted rate stats, depending on which one you prefer. Gnarly, dude.

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Merry Christmas from your Friends, Power-drunk Blog Administrators and Internet Sparring Partners at Red Reporter! We hope your Holidays are bright and warm.

While I do sincerely hope you consider those less fortunate during this time of year, in the parallel reality of baseball fandom, these include supporters of rebuilding teams and skeptics of aggressive trading. To whom I offer the following:

It's Christmas time,

there's no need to be afraid.
At Christmas time
we're Latos-high and we relish trades
And in our world of plenty
we can spread a smile of Joey
Throw your arms around the Walt
at Christmas time.

But say a Brayer,
Bray for the other ones.
At Tradesmas time, it's hard
but when we're having fun
There's a world outside your (2-year) "window"
and it's a world of dread and fear
Where the only talent flowing is
the hitchy-er swing of AA-ers
When the GMs phones are ringing
it's next season's chimes of Doom
Well, tonight thank Walt, it's them instead of you.

And there won't be Gio in Oakland this Christmas time

The greatest gift they'll get is relief ($)

Where only ivy grows
No RyHan and Rivers throws
Do they know it's Tradesmas time at all?