My best estimate has the Reds almost $2M in payroll above where they were last season. A $5M increase over 2011 gives the Reds about $3M left to work with. Based on how much of Ryan Madson's contract counts toward the 2012 budget, they could have several million more. It's still probably not enough to sign Roy Oswalt without clearing out a little salary by trade.

Despite Walt Jocketty declaring that the team is "pretty tapped out" in terms of payroll, Oswalt's people have talked to the Reds on some level (according to John Fay). It's a move I suspect "Win Now Walt" would like to make. All of the eggs for improving the rotation are currently in the Latos basket and the starting pitching depth, especially if you include departures by Maloney and Thompson, has shrunk to essentially Aroldis Chapman. Can we call him a starter yet?

Financials would not be the only complication if the team were seriously pursuing Roy Oswalt (and the team probably isn't, but that's what I thought about Chapman, Latos and Madson, et al.) There's no spot for him currently in the rotation. Mike Leake has options, but his performance last season makes him a lock. Trading Arroyo is nearly impossible, given his contract and status on the team. Homer Bailey, meanwhile, could be converted to set-up reliever or traded to clear salary/space in the rotation. Since a Homer Bailey trade would be unlikely to upgrade left field in a major way this season, the move would be essentially asking: Is Roy Oswalt that much better than Homer Bailey?

The answer would be obvious ("yeah, idiot") if not for the question of Oswalt's health and age. He was poison for the Reds over much of the last decade as an Astro, so it would be poetically satisfying to see his "redemption" in Red. But he pitched only 139 innings last season, the lowest total of his 11-year major league career. He battled a back injury last season and made some remarks which sparked retirement talk, finishing the season with his second-lowest ERA+ ever.

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It's worth asking, after the Reds traded for an elite reliever in Sean Marshall, whether they need to go get another late-innings arm. After all, with Marshall, they can construct a bullpen something like this:

• Marshall
• Masset
• Ondrusek
• Arredondo
• Bray
• LeCure
• Jordan Smith/Andrew Brackman/Josh Judy/Kanekoa Texeira/Luis Atilano

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Walt made a list. He checked it twice. Or at least he checked it once and read as far as "GET THE BEST STARTING PITCHER AND SET-UP MAN AVAILABLE."

Regardless of whether you thought they should have haggled some more in their two big deals, Priority One on the offseason checklist is done. So is whatever Priority Sean Marshall was. But there remains more to do to shore up the team for 2012. And some of the Reds' offseason moves have thinned out their depth at positions of need.

To whit, two possible future closers - or at least fringe members of the 2012 bullpen - were shipped out in the Latos deal in Boxberger and Volquez. So was Yonder Alonso, who figured to get some of the starts in LF. Then Dave Sappelt went to Chicago, further pruning the left field depth chart.

Possibilities for left field

According to the pre-Christmas opinion poll about Walt's next exciting move, a full 60% of you think he should go get a left fielder. I'd say that's fair, given the fact that the Reds probably don't have a full-time option they trust, nor even a lefty-mashing half of a platoon. Right now, Chris Heisey would be the Opening Day starter, Todd Frazier would probably be getting some reps there and Dennis Phipps or possibly Juan Francisco with *Yonder Alonso Action* would be your fifth outfielder.

What outfielders are potentially still available, worth considering and within the Reds' budget? Here's the list I came up with:

• Seth Smith (w/ Rockies): He's gotten some attention here as the Rockies seemed to be shopping him and were being linked to the Reds in trade talks earlier this offseason. Now that Walt has sent out 7 players in trades, along with Edinson Volquez (whom the Rockies were said to covet), would he shell out more for Smith? The price in prospects might be too steep at this point for a player who's only in his first year of arb and would provide sturdy corner OF defense to go with a career OPS+ of 110. He's a lefty bat, which wouldn't really matter as a full-timer. But while he mashed righties to the tune of .299/.365/.526 last season, his platoon splits were brutal.
• Andruw Jones (FA): May be either too expensive or asking too many years at 34, but he can still hit, swings a righty bat and his defense would play nicely in LF. After changing teams for times in four seasons, he'll probably re-up with the Yankees.
• Andre Ethier (w/ Dodgers): He's on the outermost fringes of this list as he's probably not even available. If he were available, he'd probably be too expensive in either prospects or salary (or both).
• Carlos Quentin (w/ White Sox): He's topping some "Best OF Trade Targets" lists and would likely be in the Reds' salary range in his third year of arbitration. But aside from requiringthe team to hemorrhage more prospects, Quentin also carries considerable some risk. He's great against lefties, but pedestrian against righties. His outfield defense is suspect. And he hasn't been the most durable, playing 130 games (barely) twice in the last four seasons since becoming a permanent MLB-er.

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This feature - if it be worthy of the name "feature" - is an attempt to keep track of the trade targets and free agents the Reds have been attached to in the press. We'll attempt to subjectively rank the players by intensity and reliability of the rumors to get a sense of who the buzz says the Reds are most likely to add to their team. We'll put a premium on anything the front office itself confirms, though with the knowledge they are both wary of "tampering" and can sometimes engage in misdirection.

The Reds don't appear to be going anywhere near free agent starters like Hiroki Kuroda or Mark Buehrle, while it looks like the Padres just acquired Huston Street. That one sticks in my craw as I'd really hoped to deploy the headline "Reds Occupy Huston Street."

So where does this leave the Reds? The chart below is my best attempt, amidst all the hot air, to list the players with the strongest readings on both level of interest from the Reds and credibility/plausibility of rumors.

WARNING: The soup gets very thin toward the end of this list.

Well, don't I feel like a cad.  A few weeks ago, I made up a rumor out of the thin air because, as the saying goes, "the Reds have no money and are talking to no one."  Things were boring and I was bored, so I figured it would be fun to have something to talk about for a few hours.  Since then, though, the rumor mill has been churning out some high quality product for us to chew on.  We're chewing on mill products now?  What are we, beavers?

Last night, word got 'round that the Angels, who are searching for a catcher after trading away the World Series MVP in THE WORST TRADE EVER, are making schmoogly eyes at the Reds over Ryan Hanigan.  The Angels sorely need a catcher and the Reds have them in spades, so it makes sense that they would sit down over a cold glass of chihuahua piss - or whatever it is those weirdo Californians are drinking these days - and have a discussion.  Or maybe it's all just made up.  Whatever though, let's have that conversation for them.  Just for the heck of it.

If the Angels want Hanigan, who do we want in return?  The Reds have made no secret that Priority #1, which has long sense been a right-handed bat (we had a long and fruitless journey scouring the internets for them a long time ago), this off-season is starting pitching.  The Angels have enviable depth in this department, so perhaps we can make something work.  I've made no secret over the years that I'm positively blue balled over Dan Haren.  In his seven full seasons in the bigs, his worst single-season fWAR is 4.0.  Dude is more reliable than Bronson Arroyo and soooo much better.  He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, actually.  And he's only 31!  Now, normally any such pitcher would be completely ridiculous to discuss in trade talks, but newly-minted Angels GM Jerry DiPoto has a history of selling Haren for pennies on the dollar. A year and a half ago, when he was the interim GM in Arizona, he sent Haren to the Angels for what amounted to a mid-rotation starter, a top-75 prospect, and two C-level prospects.  Perhaps he hasn't learned his lesson?  Maybe we could nab him for Hanigan, Homer Bailey, and Yonder Alonso?  I know, I know, I'm saying such crazy things.  But what if...

More realistically though, the Angels do have some decent young arms that could be had.  Ervin Santana has been mentioned a few times around the internet as a guy they could move this winter.  He's good and kind of expensive (he'll make $11.2 mil this year and has a $13 mil option for next).  Certainly, Hanigan alone wouldn't be enough to get him, but I think the Reds could build a decent package around Hanigan to make it happen.  

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The Reds have been clear so far this off-season that they see Zack Cozart as the starting shortstop for next year.  Baseball America recently called him the safest bet in the Reds' system to be a successful major league baseball player, but he only saw 38 PAs last year before needing elbow surgery.  He's a good prospect to be sure, and I'm perfectly comfortable with him as the starter next year.  But the Reds don't have anyone else to play SS in case he fails or isn't fully recovered from surgery.  They are most assuredly looking for a solid veteran backup much like Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Renteria.  Paul Janish constitutes good depth in case of a real emergency, but I'm not totally comfortable with him as the primary backup.  And I don't think the Reds are either.

So that means the Reds are in the market for a decent and inexpensive player who can serve as Cozart's caddy and mentor or, if worse comes to worse, fill in as the starter.  This is a familiar refrain, yeah?  They've been looking for a guy like this for what seems like forever.  They got Cabrera just before the '10 season started and though he served as the starter for much of the season, he wasn't all that good.  They got Renteria just before the '11 season and though he served as the starter for about half the season, he wasn't all that good.  And they were probably the best available options at the time.  

The point is, good shortstop help is hard to find.  There is some real talent at the position right now all around baseball, but there is a sharp division between the haves and the have-nots.  Hopefully Cozart can be The One to finally fill the Barry Larkin-shaped void to the left of the 2-sack, but if he ain't, the Reds need a fall back plan.

So that leads us to the title character of this piece, Jason Bartlett.  There was much debate around here this time last year when he was put on the trade block by the Rays.  He eventually ended up in San Diego where the Padres didn't play well and aren't looking to do so any time soon.  So Bartlett, who will make $5.5 mil next year, is being shopped around.  The Padres are looking to move either Bartlett or his keystone mate Orlando Hudson due to their exorbitant salaries (read: more than the league-minimum).  The question, of course, is whether or not the Reds should take a look.

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With the GM meetings in Milwaukee this week there has been a goodly amount of chatter on the wires.  Aside from the incredible, astonishing, unbelievable, breath-taking, earth-rattling, bone-shivering, blood-chilling revelation that Joey Votto isn't going anywhere, the most interesting Reds-related rumor involves Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens.  It really should come as no surprise though, as the Reds are known to be looking for pitching and the Braves are known to have made Jurrjens available.  It's kizmet, right?

Well, here's what we know.  The Braves are asking for quite a lot for their young hurler, as Jon Heyman reports they are seeking a "Zack Greinke-like deal" in return for him.  Pardon the editorial scoff, but pffffff cough cough cough.  Comparing Jurrjens to Greinke is quite a stretch, as Greinke had won a Cy Young award, posting a 9 WAR season and two other 5+ WAR seasons before being traded.  Jurrjens, on the other hand, is coming off two straight injury-shortened seasons, posting a roughly league-average FIP when healthy.  He'll likely make $5 mil next year, his second go-around in arbitration.  

FanGraphs thinks he's not worth a top prospect.  Citing the injury history and an unsettling drop in velocity, they advise prospective suitors to proceed with caution.  All this put together, I'm not terribly thrilled by Jurrjens.  Sure, he was a great pitcher in '08 and '09, but I doubt he's still that pitcher.  The Braves may already know this, which would give them good reason to try and pawn him off.  Of course, their stated reason for shopping him is that they have an embarrassing number of stars-in-waiting ready to pitch in the big league rotation and they just need room for them all (jerks).  But one has to wonder.  Anyway, if he had pitched this past year like he had in '09 I'd be more likely to give up some of our best prospects for him.  If he had, he'd look an awful lot like Johnny Cueto, actually.  If he looked like Johnny Cueto I'd be really interested in bringing him on board.  But he doesn't.  So I'm not.

Of course, the Braves could just be posturing with all the "Greinke-like deal" spiel.  So let's suppose they actually are open to a realistic deal for him.  What would that look like?  Despite the Hamlet-level tragedy that was their September collapse, the Braves are a good looking team with pieces in place to make a World Series run next year.  They are in search for a left fielder though, as Martin Prado didn't play so well there last year and is on the trade block.  Kevin Mitchell is Batman floated the idea of offering Chris Heisey as the main piece in a Jurrjens swap.  I really don't think that would be enough though.  I could see them asking for Billy Hamilton as well, which is a bridge too far.  

So what do you think?  Can the Reds put together a package to land Jurrjens?  What would it look like?  Should they even bother?  Also, don't forget to make your roster predictions for the off-season by tomorrow night.  You could win some crap or something.

Jon Heyman (on Twitter) says he's hearing that Dontrelle Willis is "drawing lots of interest" on the free agent market. I always look at "I'm hearing" rumors a little cockeyed because - while they avoid the passive voice - they're rarely attributed to more than general chatter. It shouldn't be surprising, though, that Willis is getting looks from multiple teams who may or may not be offering at least one major league contract year. He pitched well in Lousville. He had a widely-discussed series of starts capped by a 10 K performance in Colorado on August 9 (before possibly no more than fatigue overtook him). And he was handy with the bat. He's also proven himself lethal against lefties, which could be the clincher for any number of teams deciding to guarantee money to Willis.

If Willis is being pursued in earnest by teams who are willing to hand out more than a split contract, what offer - if any - should the Reds give him? As Heyman acknowledges, he's an easy player to root for and a fun presence on the team, given his positive mental 'tude and his extracurricular offense. But beyond his pitching ability and lefty splits, how much of that could be accounted for with the limited resources of the Reds' payroll?