Red Reporter

A quick peek at the 40-man roster

2008-11-20T16:22:14Z

I hadn't looked at the Reds 40-man roster in a while, so I decided to check it out. Did you know there are only 32 players currently on the 40-man roster? (Reds.com lists 33, but I don't believe Andy Phillips belongs on there) There's a lot of space to fill.

Some of that will be with players that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Based on this list from Shawn back in October, I'd guess that Carlos Fisher will definitely be protected, and possibly Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, and Sam Lecure. I don't believe they'll protect more than two players though because they have too many holes on the big league roster to fill.

I think all of these guys from the 40-man are pretty much locks to make the team in Spring:

Starters
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto

Relievers
Cordero
Bray
Burton
Roenicke

Infielders
Hanigan
Votto
Phillips
Gonzalez
Keppinger
Encarnacion

Outfielders
Bruce
Freel
Dickerson

That leaves 8 open roster spots: SP, 3 RP, 2 OF, C, IF

The last starting pitcher spot will likely be filled from the 40-man roster, specifically from Owings, Bailey, or Thompson. We may see bullpen help from Herrera, Masset, Fisher, one of the losers from the SP chase or, gulp, Majewski or Belisle. I would guess though that Majewski and Belisle will not be offered arbitration and therefore will be released, freeing up 2 more spots on the 40-man roster.

On the offensive side, there isn't a lot of help coming from the 40-man. Adam Rosales, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar all look like backups, and Hopper is the only remaining OF on the the 40-man roster. I would say that Drew Stubbs and Danny Dorn are the only other outfielders in the organization that would have a shot at making the roster out of the spring, but both are unlikely.

So the Reds have a lot of work that needs to be done, but at least they have a lot of space to work in. By my estimate, they are currently only on the hook for around $49.5 million in signed contracts, with EdE being the only likely arbitration case they'll face. Throw in another $4-6 million to cover the pre-arb players, and it really looks to me like the Reds have some money to spend - at least $25-30 million, I would think.

What do you think, can they build a winner with the money they have left to spend?

Wednesday Links for the Sick

2008-11-19T15:09:20Z

I'm fighting my first cold of the season and it's moved into my sinuses, so all you get are links once again. Special thanks to Scrabbles and Kyle for posting something worth talking about the last couple of days. I hope to be back to a healthier level tomorrow.

Baseball Prospectus has the Hot Stove Preview up for the Reds. It's behind the subscription wall, so I can only give you a blurb:
So here's the suggestion that they sneak up on people by giving Milton Bradley a multi-year offer to play left field in a park he'll continue to thrive in. Skip the cautions over dealing in-division, and try to get Alcides Escobar and whatever else from the Brewers for Arroyo, resolving their shortstop problem and adding a hitter who, while he won't get on base a lot, will deliver more power than you expect because of his ability to make contact in a homer-happy park.
Bradley's not a bad idea, but he might be too expensive and risky for a team that isn't quite ready to compete. I have to think the Brewers would be more likely to trade Hardy than Escobar, especially if they are taking on salary. I wouldn't mind having either one.
Crosley Field Terrace likes the new Mariners GM's plan to set up a statistical analysis department. I think he also is personally asking me to hassle Jocketty at Redsfest next month. Sounds like a plan.
Doug's been doing some thinking about Justin Turner. He's an interesting, under-the-radar prospect in my opinion. I think he'll be a good player some day, but probably not for the Reds.
The Orioles are interested in adding Wayne Krivsky to their front office. Is it too late to trade him for Brian Roberts?
Can you name the last 10 NL MVPs in 3 minutes? How about the last 10 AL MVPs? I got all of the NL and missed 2 from the AL.
The AFL has named 6 finalists for the Dernell Stenson Award. None of them are Reds prospects, but I think it's good to think about Stenson every once in a while to remind ourselves how quickly it could all end.
Brew Crew Ball thinks that the Brewers could get CC Sabathia if they just add a 6th year to the deal, even if they don't match the Yankees money. As little as I want to see CC face the Reds 5 times a year, I'm kind of rooting for Sabathia to pick the Brewers over the Yanks. And once he does, I'll start rooting for him to get hurt. :)
Does anybody know if the MLB Network is going to be carried by Time Warner in Cincinnati? If it is, I may very well get fired for lack of output in my job.

Should the Reds move Votto to LF?

2008-11-18T17:36:37Z

I was checkin out John Fay's Blog this morning and caught an interesting tidbit from the Reds Farm Director, Terry Reynolds:

The Hawaii Winter League wrapped up Sunday. The Waikiki BeachBoys, featuring Reds' prospects Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier, won the title.

Both put up excellent numbers: Alonso hit .308/.419/.510, Frazier .295/.375/.547. Frazier led the league in slugging.

"They both swung the bat really well," farm director Terry Reynolds. "Frazier came back OK from the concussion. It was good to see both of them play well."

The plan for Alonso?

"He'll compete for a job with Carolina," Reynolds said. "If that doesn't work out, he'll be the first baseman with Sarasota."

Apparently, the talk of playing Alonso at third base as well as first is over.

"I would doubt that he'll play any third," Reynolds said. "If he does, it would be out of necessity. He's a first baseman."

So if we take what we know about how good Alonso is, how well he performed in Hawaii, and how the Reds currently do have any other true 1B prospects, you can bet Alonso starts at AA. If he performs well there, he might be able to end the year in AAA, which would make an arrivial sometime in 2010 a big time possibility. If the Reds don't think that Alonso could handle any other position, would 2009 be a wise time to go ahead and move Joey Votto to LF?

Votto played 6 Games of left with the Reds in 2007, and in the same year played 41 games of left field with Louisville. In 2008, Joey ranked in the upper half of first basemen defensively in the NL, and I thought he played defense better than I, or even the Reds even thought he could.

Obviously, moving Votto creates a one to two year hole at first base. Looking at the free agents, it is a hole you can fill easier, and probably more cost effective right now than LF. ( You could also try Encarnacion at 1st, a move I wouldn't oppose to, as most of his errors are in the throwing variety.)

Here are the corner INF options right now on the FA Market from MLB Trade Rumors:

1B

Rich Aurilia (37)
Miguel Cairo (35)
Sean Casey (34)
Tony Clark (37)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Jason Giambi (38)
Eric Hinske (31)
Doug Mientkiewicz (35)
Kevin Millar (37)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Sweeney (39)
Mark Teixeira (29) - Type A Free Agent
Daryle Ward (34)

3B

Rich Aurilia (37)
Casey Blake (35) - Type B
Willie Bloomquist (31)
Aaron Boone (36)
Russell Branyan (33)
Craig Counsell (38)
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Mike Lamb (33)
Mark Loretta (37) - Type B
Ramon Martinez (36)
Pablo Ozuna (34)
Juan Uribe (30) - Type B
Ramon Vazquez (32)

You could get a lot of these guys (Except Teixeira and Blake) on a low-risk one year deal, maybe with a team option for 2010. The nostalgic Reds fan in me thinks it would be cool to sign Sean Casey and platoon him with Keppinger or another RH 1B bat with some pop. I think adding a guy like him even in a part time role would be great for the development of Bruce, Votto, etc. (Not to mention the guy can still get base hits (although the power is still not there).

Thoughts, anyone? Should they leave Votto alone until Alonso is ready, or go ahead and get him adjusted to playing out there. With the money the Reds have Alonso signed for, it is a move that has to happen sometime (unless the Reds trade one of the two). Why not now?

What to do with the Reds Bullpen

2008-11-17T22:25:58Z

After years of agony, the Reds bullpen was actually respectable last year. The starters underperformed and, as expected, the offense regressed, but the bullpen held their own and was one of the best in the league. The days of 8th inning BOHICAs became distant memories, replaced by much flag-waving and mirth.

via www.appliedlanguage.com

Of course, Coco was not the only reason the bullpen solidified last year, but there is no doubting his contribution. Many will complain about the price tag, and legitimately so, but Wayner finally did it. His tenure was basically forgettable and short, but if there is an epitath to be written for it, it would go like this: "My kingdom for a bullpen!" After millions of dollars and an infamous trade (and numerous onerous contract blunders) he finally did it. And then he was fired.

So what I want to do here is take a look at what went right for the bullpen last year and what needs to be done to ensure a repeat performance. Out of the 6 main arms in the pen last year, 3 of them are free agents.

Francisco Cordero - 70.3 INN, 3.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

David Weathers - 69.3 INN, 3.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Jeremy Affeldt - 78.3 INN, 3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Mike Lincoln - 70.3 INN, 4.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Billy Bray - 47.0 INN, 2.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP

Jared Burton - 58.7 INN, 3.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

As you can see, Dusty really hung his hat on Affeldt, Weathers, and Lincoln. They really made up the spine of the bullpen last year and it's going to be tough to replace all that productivity. The strength of the pen was really in its depth, as these 6 guys, each one of them, could be relied upon to get the big out when needed. These 6 combined to throw almost 400 innings, and at a combined ERA of 3.45. That's no joke right there.

As we learned last week, Weathers isn't coming back. He should be the easiest of the group to replace, as his ERA is deceptively low. His WHIP was really high considering such a low ERA, so one can reasonably assume his success was due in large part to Lady Luck. But still, he ate up a ton of innings and didn't let many runners cross the plate. We need another arm who can do that.

Lincoln was really a refreshing surprise last year, as he came out of nowhere and really abused opposing hitters with his bona-fide curveball. He's kind of the opposite of Weathers, as his ERA is pretty high considering his WHIP. I'll talk a little more about him later.

Affeldt will be the most difficult to replace of the 3. He was the closest thing the Reds had to a relief ace, as he was equally effective against lefties and righties. I was going to write a whole big deal about how the Reds should make every attempt to resign him, but the Giants stepped in and signed him just as I was writing this. So awesome.

So what can the Reds do to replace these guys? Unlike in previous years, there are internal options in the minors waiting to step up. Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher, Danny Ray Herrera, and Nick Masset all show signs of being decent to good. Roenicke could be a future closer, Fisher had a hell of a year last year, Herrera could be a legitimate LOOGY, and Masset is famous for being traded for a legend. There is also the prospect of one or more of the losers in the 5th starter derby ending up in the pen, so we could see Owings, Bailey, Thompson, Ramirez, or Maloney as a long reliever or something like that. But doing nothing and relying on these guys to repeat the performances of the departed would be folly. It could happen, but I wouldn't bank on it. I'll assume that out of this collective the Reds could fill one of the three vacancies, as this doesn't seem all that crazy.

So the Reds should be sorting among the free agents to find a good LOOGY and a strong innings-eating righty (trading for such things is retarded so FA is really the only non-retarded route). So who's out there?

via mlb.mlb.com

1) Mike Lincoln. He really is the sensible choice, and as The Great Emancipator once said "one shouldn't swap horses in the middle of the stream". We rode him pretty hard last year and he and his bionic arm held up all right, so why not try it again? He made a cool 550k last year and certainly earned a raise.

2) Luis Ayala. He has a career WHIP of 1.25 and doesn't give up many home runs. He may cost a bit more than Lincoln though, as I can see him seeking a 3 year deal. He made 1.7 mil last year between Washington and the Mets and could be looking at something like 3-4 mil a year. With all the cash tied up at the back end of the pen though, it may be tough to throw more money at another guy who won't pitch more than 70 innings.

via chicago.cubs.mlb.com

3) Bob Howry. Slyde mentioned his name earlier in the Monday Linkage thread and he makes some sense. He's been about as awesome as a middle reliever can be over the past 5 seasons, accept for last year when he started giving up more hits and more home runs. He's a good bounce back candidate though, as his K/BB ratio was pretty much in line with his career marks. He is a Type A free agent, but it doesn't look like the Cubs want to risk offering him arbitration. They might, in which case I would pass on him. But if they don't then go for it. Perhaps the Reds could buy low on him and make him the next David Weathers (when he was good)? He'll be 35 next year.

4) Juan Cruz. He would be the safe, uncreative, big money signing. The past two years he has struck out about 14 batters per 9 innings, which is like good and stuff. He may be in line for a 4 year deal. He's been talked about as a closer candidate for some teams as well, so the price could really get lofty. Oh, and he's a Type A and the D-Backs are definitely going to offer arbitration, so he would cost a 2nd round pick next June. I only really included him on this list because he is a good example of what not to do with free agency and bullpens.

via www.latimes.com

5) Joe Beimel. You wanna LOOGY? This guy's a LOOGY. Lefties OPS .722 against him and slug under .400. He's given up 1 (one) home run (Carlos Beltran) the past two seasons, spanning 116.3 innings. He'll be 32 next year and I can see him getting the same kind of deal that Affeldt just got from the Giants (reportedly a 2-year, 8 mil deal).

6) Will Ohman. Another LOOGY, he's only given up 6 dingers the past 2 seasons. He's more LOOGY than Beimel, as lefties only OPS .603 against him. That's worse than Paul Bako. He and Beimel are really the best looking LOOGYs out there, and we could really use a true one. Bray filled the role admirably last year, but he is better served getting everyone out, not just the lefties.

7) R.J. Swindle. I don't know who he is either. But check this out, and hopefully it will convince you like it did me.

8) Derrick Turbow. Yeah I know he sucked for over a year in Milwaukee and got his walking papers last May, but listen. The dude had a bad year. I mean, an awful year. Like, worse than Mike Stanton and Todd "BT" Coffey put together. But he could be had on a minor league deal and a spring training invite. For his career, he strikes out more than 9 every 9 innings and doesn't give up homers very easily. Except for last season. Yeesh. But honestly, his past performance should not be completely overshadowed by last year. He could be a steal.

Of course, there could be a trade or two that goes down this winter and perhaps a good bullpen arm could be had as part of a deal, but that kind of speculation is really a non-starter. So there you have it. Should the Reds go with (4) more years of Lincoln? Should we really embrace the youth movement and rely on the youngsters? Do your best Wayner impression, put on a colorfully patterened crew neck and let's build a bullpen!

Monday Linkage: The Wagon Needs to Strike First

2008-11-17T15:30:41Z

Things to ponder while you ponder things:

Matt York/AP

We all know that Edinson Volquez needs to work on his control a bit. He had the 7th highest walks per 9 IP among qualified pitchers last season. More importantly though, he may want to improve on throwing first pitch strikes. He had the second lowest rate for first pitch strikes in baseball last season, behind only Barry Zito (for qualified starters) at 52.6%. How big of a difference can strike one make? Batters hit .268/.408/.414 against Volquez last year after a 1-0 count. When the count starts out 0-1, they hit just .195/.253/.297.
John Erardi had a fine article this weekend about the Latin pipeline for the Big Red Machine. As Erardi points out, it's relevant to look at that link since the Reds are starting to make significant moves in Latin America once again. This may be the most important development for the future of the franchise that we've seen. Sure would be nice if Johnny Almaraz was still involved though.
I've been pushing defensive improvement a lot this off-season, mainly because I think it's a cheap way for the Reds to improve. When it comes to evaluating defense, there isn't one perfect system. Each has it's flaws and shortcomings, but most of them contribute to our knowledge on the subject. As much as I can, I try to not leave my evaluation to just one system - though that can be difficult since they are all released at different times during the season. My point in all this babble is that we've got more data to look at as Baseball Musings has released his Probablistic Model of Range numbers for 2008. Long story short, it doesn't look good for the Reds. Beyond the Boxscore has converted most of the positions to run values and the Reds are second-to-last at -29 runs. The good news is that there is room for improvement.
We haven't heard much about the Reds in terms of shoring up the bullpen this off-season, but I came across a couple of names that interested me. First, Bob Howry had a bad year last year, but I think the reason might because he stopped throwing his fastball in favor of his slider. Given his down year in 2008, he could be had for a one-year deal or a reasonably cheap two-year deal. The other pitcher is Will Ohman. Ohman is definitely a LOOGY, so I wouldn't sign him for more than $2.5 million, but the guy shuts down left-handers (.197/.285/.318). Given that Bill Bray is the only lefty in the pen right now with any real experience, I think Ohman is definitely worth a shot.
I've recently added 3 Reds blogs to our blogroll and I figured I should bring attention to them. It looks like they've all been around for some time, but for some reason I just found them. RedLegs Baseball has been around since May of 2007, but for some reason I cared not. He recently put up a cool video of Neftali Soto hitting the ball far. I think I may have linked to Dunn and Dunner before, but nothing formal. And lastly, there is OMGReds, who have a super-rad Photo Blog to go along with their site, including pictures from this weekend's Big Red Machine Reunion. I'm terrible about linking to work from other blogs, so please click the links in the blogroll often to keep up with their work. And if there is any Reds site out there that I'm missing, drop me a line or put it in the comments and I'll add it.

Friday Open Thread: Where's your head on the Reds?

2008-11-14T15:21:37Z

I may have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Reds new right now. Today is the day that free agents can start talking with other teams. As you know, that probably means the end of David Weathers's tenure with the Reds. Assuming Javier Valentin and Matt Belisle aren't back, that means the only players left from the 2005 squad are Ryan Freel, EdE, and Aaron Harang. Doesn't that seem like a lot of turnover in just 3 years? Granted that team was bad, but for a team that doesn't play much on the free agent market, they sure have gone through a lot of players.

The latest word from Walt Jocketty (via Fay) is that "the Reds will look to trades first and free agency second." Jocketty added:

“I don’t think that’s going to happen right away,” Jocketty said. “It could. You never know until you start talking to people but I don’t expect it.”

So, we may be twiddling our thumbs here for a bit.

Then again, maybe something might happen quickly with Bronson Arroyo. In case you haven't heard, Jayson Stark mentioned:

We're hearing the Reds are quietly investigating whether there's a market for Bronson Arroyo. One team believed to be mulling Arroyo: Texas.

I wonder if an Arroyo trade would get Saltalamacchia or Teagarden in return. Of all of the Reds starting pitchers, Arroyo is the one that I'd be most open to trading. Then again, I'd be perfectly happy with him as the #4 starter next year too.

I think we'll start to see a few more rumors flying around leading up to the Winter Meetings, but I doubt we'll see much major activity. Where's your head on this? Are you optimstic that the Reds are going to make the right moves? Do you think we'll see something soon or do you expect that Walt will wait to strike?

Use this thread to discuss that or anything else going on around the game. Dump any rumors of interest in here as well.

Names of interest, or not

2008-11-13T14:57:00Z

Some names and notes of players that have been floating throughout the interwebs:

Braden Looper - Rotoworld seems to think the Reds would have an interest in his services. Not sure if there is any real rumor here. Sounds like speculation:

Braden Looper (Cardinals) - Looper's 4.94 ERA and dismal strikeout rate in his first year as a starter suggested that he'd have a hard time lasting another season in the rotation in 2008, but he was able to improve for the Cardinals, finishing 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA. That's enough to insert him into the Jason Marquis class of starters and potentially land him another three-year deal as a free agent. The top teams probably won't be after him, but clubs looking for a guy to eat innings could see considerable value in his durability. It'd be for the best if he stays in the NL.

Previous prediction: Nationals - three years, $21 million
New prediction: Reds - three years, $21 million

Jocketty has signed Looper in the past, so it's not out of the realm of possibility, but I see this one as highly suspect, especially at that amount.

Miguel Montero - This one comes courtesy of the East Valley Tribune (via Redszone):

As the Diamondbacks conduct their due diligence this offseason, they have found significant interest in reserve catcher Miguel Montero.

"That’s a pretty popular name," a major league source said.

While the D-Backs would prefer to keep Montero because of his offensive productivity and his affordability, his marketability seems to make him the most likely trading piece to address their hole at second base.
. . . . . . .

Boston could be in the market for a catcher if free agent Jason Varitek goes elsewhere, and Detroit, Cincinnati, Houston and perhaps Milwaukee also might have interest.

Montero put up solid numbers in the minors: .291/.356/.467, though those could be a bit inflated by the Pacific Coast League. He's 25 years old and doesn't go into arbitration until after next season, so he's still cheap. I'm not sure the Reds are a match if the Dbacks are looking for a 2B, but he's an interesting catching option, especially since he'd set up a nice Lefty-Righty platoon with Hanigan.

Oliver Perez and Jon Garland - Rotoworld seems to think the Reds really need to sign some pitching, I guess. The writer is much more non-committal on this one for the Reds as he only mentions them as possible players on these two guys. I don't have a whole lot of interest in Garland, unless he is desperate and wants to sign a one-year deal. I've always liked Perez, butBoras has been arguing that he's one of the top 5 lefties in the game and that his career path looks a lot like Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax. Translation: he'll be expensive. So, no thanks for that kind of money.

Jermaine Dye - Ken Rosenthal mentions in his latest column that:

The Reds are looking for right-handed power, and general manager Walt Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he spoke with the Rockies about Matt Holliday. The Reds also inquired about the Marlins' Josh Willingham before he was traded to the Nationals, and remain interested in Atkins.

MLB Trade Rumors speculates that Jermaine Dye might be a nice fit. The White Sox brass is currently in Arizona evaluating talent (I'm assuming that doesn't mean they are at the strip clubs). As Thundering Turtle points out, these players are currently in the AFL: Carlos Fisher, Robert Manuel, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Justin Turner, Chris Valaika and Drew Stubbs.

I don't think Dye makes sense for the Reds. He's the kind of player that you pick up to fill that last remaining hole. At 35, he's not the type of player that build with. The Reds should be looking for those types of players.

Rec'd: Reds go Green

2008-11-13T01:23:29Z

Rec'd: Reds go Green

The Reds will be presented an award on Thursday from the Hamilton County Solid Waste Management District for recycling innovation and outstanding results.

We put a lot of crap on this site bemoaning the mistakes that the organization makes. And while I'm sure there is more that can be done in this area, I say we at least congratulate them on making some progress. Click the link to see some of what they are doing to reuse and recycle at the ballpark.

EdE to Atkins: A lateral move, at best

2008-11-12T14:02:27Z

David Kohl/AP

The talk yesterday of trading for Garrett Atkins left me with just one question: why? I'm not questioning why because I think Atkins is a bad player. That's not the case at all. He's a good - not great - Major League player. And while his numbers are inflated by playing in Colorado, it's not as if he would likely come to Cincinnati and turn into a terrible hitter.

No the reason why I ask why is because he's not really an improvement over Encarnacion at third base. On paper, they are essentially the same player:

20-25 home runs a year
an OPS+ of 100-110 every year
bad defense
better numbers at home than on the road

On that last point, the resemblance between their career road numbers really is quite striking:

Atkins: .260/.328/.424
EdE: .259/.326/.434

You really can't get much closer than that, can you?

The only real difference between the two player's history is that Atkins has 2006 to hang his hat on, a season where he posted a .329/.409/.556 batting line with an OPS+ of 136. It was a year where Atkins finished 15th in the MVP ballotting. Encarnacion doesn't have a season anywhere near that year. But then, besides 2006, neither does Atkins.

Oh, and there is one more difference. Atkins didn't finally settle into the big leagues until 2005 when he was 25 years old. Edwin just finished his third full season in the big leagues - a year when he was just 25 years old. Atkins is moving into that phase into his career where we pretty much know what type of player he is. EdE is still developing a bit - though by no means do I think he'll become an All Star. Given the age of the two players, it's more likely that Edwin will be the one to continue to improve over the next couple of seasons.

On top of that, Atkins is in his second year of arbitration after making $4.4 million last season. With EdE just entering his first arb year this season, I think we can expect that he'll be much cheaper in 2009. Plus there is the extra advantage of another year of control over him.

Like I said, this is not a case of me thinking that Atkins is a bad player - far from it. And if he were a left fielder or if he played good defense at 3B (a la Adrian Beltre), I'd be in support of the move. But if he is any sort of an upgrade over EdE, it's minimal. If both players stay on the roster, then one of them is going to play a new position while the other continues to play bad defense at 3B. How is that an upgrade? If they decide to trade EdE - a move I'm not opposed to if the deal makes sense - doesn't it make more sense to try to replace him with someone who is not an older, more expensive version of himself?

Can anybody give me a good reason why Garrett Atkins would be a real improvement over Encarnacion?

rockies-reds talking trade

2008-11-11T19:59:27Z

Rockies Talking Trade With Reds By Tim Dierkes [November 11 at 1:17pm CST]

Ken Rosenthal says the Rockies aren't done dealing - they're talking trade with the Reds and other clubs. The Reds like Willy Taveras, Yorvit Torrealba, and Garrett Atkins, with a "definite interest" in Taveras.

Meanwhile the Indians like newly acquired Huston Street and the Nationals are one club eyeing Carlos Gonzalez. Rosenthal says the Rockies figure to hang on to Greg Smith.

It seems we can't yet judge the Holliday trade for the Rockies. It did seem odd that they would acquire a closer and a young center fielder, two positions at which they already had solid options.

so what do you guys think about this possible trade? i am pretty sure it would be a deal involving homer bailey, i am hopeing that this deal gets done some time soon because it will definetly help out the reds to be more competitive next year

What if the Reds went with youth in 2009?

2008-11-11T17:41:53Z

Getty Images

I was thinking this morning about the possibility that the Reds may remain inactive during the off-season. My next thought was that maybe then they should go with a full-on youth movement and let the players for 2010 - at least those that have played in Double-A or higher - play and get them some experience so that they are rolling when 2010 comes along. Who would those players be?

Drew Stubbs - he's probably the only real prospect in Triple-A, at least on offense. Shaun Cumberland put up decent numbers, but I think he looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter. A case could be made that Stubbs should start in CF even if the Reds don't go the youth route in 2009. His defense should solidify the Reds up the middle and I believe that eventually he'll post an OBP in the .350-.360 range. He probably could use some refinement though. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Very good.

Daniel Dorn - he's a left-handed power-hitter who played most the season in Chattanooga last year. I doubt he'd make the leap over Stubbs, and given that he's left-handed I don't see him starting in front of Dickerson. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Slim.

Sean Henry/Chris Heisey - both of these guys are right-handed corner outfielders who need to develop some more power if they are going to play in the Majors. They both get on base well and Heisey has some decent speed. Neither player is ready to sniff starting in the Majors. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Tiny.

Chris Valaika - Outside of his first 200 PAs in Sarasota, his bat has been good all throughout the minors. His defense was questionable at shortstop, but Doug has been noticing some chatter indicating that he might be improving enough there to stick. If his defense is truly improved, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds and start at shortstop on Opening Day - especially if Alex Gonzalez continues to be unhealthy. If the Reds decide to make it look like they are playing for 2009 though, Valaika will probably start the year in Louisville. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Good.

Justin Turner - By all accounts, Turner's defense at 2B is very good and his bat has been solid throughout the minors. With Brandon Phillips holding on to 2B right now, it's doubtful that Turner will see any time in 2009 with the big club, but don't be surprised if he makes the jump if BP goes down with an injury. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Doubtful.

What do you think? Any of these guys going to make the team out of Spring Training?

What will Walt Jocketty do?

2008-11-10T13:29:03Z

Sorry for disappearing (at least from the front page) last week. That'll happen sometimes. We'll try to give you new stuff every day this week. Hopefully the Reds will justify that level of interest.

Al Behrman/AP

We've spent a lot of time this off-season throwing out ideas for various trade targets for the Reds. But, the only real rumor involving the Reds on the trade market has already been shot down.

There have also been thoughts from others about who the Reds should pursue on the free agent market. But, outside of discussions with free agents that were with the Reds last year, there has been very little chatter from the Reds about any possible pursuits.

Strangely, that doesn't seem to bother the local media too much. Paul Daugherty thinks the Reds should just say no (way to keep it fresh P-Doc). Fay agrees. Honestly, I think that's a silly idea. Not that I think the Reds will be good in 2009, but not doing anything not only means that you're playing for 2010, but you're expecting to be able to fill all of your needs next off-season as well. The Reds can do well to start laying the groundwork for 2010. Doing nothing could leave them playing for 2011 at the end of next season.

We've seen or heard very little from Walt Jocketty since he's taken over. He made two big trades this season with mediocre returns (not that he could have necessarily gotten more). We've heard that he doesn't plan to trade Cueto or Volquez (so he's got a brain), and he's pursuing Weathers and Hairston (well, half a brain). Knowing what we know about his history, we shouldn't expect him to sit around for too long, especially not with Bob Castellini breathing down his neck.

So, what do you think Jocketty will do? Will he play for 2009? Will he get that big right-handed bat that he said was the Reds biggest need? Will he take Daugherty's advice and do nothing? What do you think?

Brandon Phillips wins NL Gold Glove

2008-11-05T21:53:50Z

[Note by Rick House, 11/05/08 5:01 PM EST ] Bumped from diaries. I'm a little surprised Brandon won this popularity contest over ChUtley, but I'll take it. Way to go, Brandon!

Just saw on the bottom line that Brandon Phillips won a gold glove. He committed only 7 errors this year in 140 games which was good for a fielding percent of .990 Congrats to Brandon and lets hope that he wins about 10 more with the Reds in addition to finally returning us to the playoffs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3684696

Another fun fact to take up space. Houston made the least amount of errors this year and did not have anyone win.

Democracy is in your hands - heaven help us!

2008-11-04T15:17:37Z

via Chris Sabo's Goggles

Tired of standing in line at your polling place?

Do you wish there was a place where you could vote on the issues that really matter to you?

Well, you've come to the right place. Today Red Reporter will allow you to cast your ballot to decide what matters most to you the Reds fan. Cast your ballot in the comments and let's see democracy inaction.

Favorite Young Hitter

Jay Bruce -This young lefty is full of charm and charisma. He's an all-American boy, but is he experienced enough to lead the Reds to victory?

Quote - "My opponent wasn't even born in America! The LA Times has the original birth certificate to prove it!"

Joey Votto -This young slugger likes to show off his power to the other field. He has more experience, but some think he might be a bit too old.

Quote - "My opponent was raised in Texas and has some suspicious associations with Adam Dunn, an unrepentant strike out machine."

Favorite Young Pitcher

Edinson Volquez - The newly acquired righty quickly established himself as the staff ace in 2008. Can he hold off the pitcher that he claimed had even better stuff?

Quote - "It's time for a Change Up we can believe in. "

Johnny Cueto -Drew rave reviews with his first performance on the big stage but showed to be inexperienced throughout the season. Has he learned from his mistakes?

Quote - "My opponent is a flip-flopper, constantly going from fast ball to a change up and back again."

2009 Center Fielder

Chris Dickerson -CDick is considered by many to be the most athletic player in the Reds organization. Can that talent translate into on field success?

Quote - "My friends, I have been to the Majors before. I have the experience to handle the pressure of playing there everyday."

Drew Stubbs -Drafted in the first round in 2006, Stubbs finally made strides in 2008 and started moving more quickly toward the Majors, but is he ready to take on such a crucial position in the big show?

Quote - "The Reds felt me worthy of selection over Tim Lincecum and it's time for the fans to feel that way too."

Favorite hitter who's been here a while

Edwin Encarnacion -Maligned by much of the fan base, EdE continues to keep up the fight. Some believe that he fails to come through when it matters most, but Edwin likes to prove those people wrong.

Quote - "Read Brantley's lips: I'm not clutch!"

Brandon Phillips -BP is strong on defense but has been known to be soft on issues at home plate. He's been given the opportunity to lead, but the question is will the team follow?

Quote - "My opponent will weaken our defenses and that is not something we can afford to risk on this fragile team."

2009 Shortstop

Jeff Keppinger - He covered shortstop for most of the 2008 season, but will that experience sour Reds fans to the idea of him again in 2009?

Quote - "Two words: Flat. Out."

Alex Gonzalez - Some may not remember that he's actually on the team. Those that do remember it may not be happy to have that memory.

Quote - "I have 5.375 million reasons why I should be the starter"

Player you are happiest to see gone

Corey Patterson - A questionable selection from the start, Dusty Baker dug in and continued to let Patterson represent the team. Many believe this was a major reason why the Reds ultimately lost.

Quote - "I can see Dusty's daughter's window from my house!"

Paul Bako -He wasn't the first choice to be catcher, but after an injury to the expected starter and a surprisingly hot start, Bako found himself as the front-runner at the position, even after he started sucking again.

Quote - "I've seen Johnny Bench. I know Johnny Bench. And I, my friends, am no Johnny Bench."

Free Agent Profile: Mark Kotsay

2008-11-03T21:08:44Z

Whenever I see a rumor or a suggestion by someone that a free agent may sign with the Reds, I am going to try to do a quick profile of that player for discussion purposes. I know today's profile isn't credible beyond one man's theories, but we need to start somewhere...

MLB Trade Rumors has posted their Top 50 free agents on the market with predictions of who each player will play for in 2009. The only player that Dierkes has going to the Reds is...

45. Mark Kotsay - Reds. Kotsay can step in at center field for a year to allow younger players to come along.

Steven Senne/AP

Kotsay is a left-handed hitting outfielder who has played center field most of his career. He was taken by the Florida Marlins with the 9th pick in the 1996 draft and tore up Double-A in 1997 (.306/.407/.514), even earning some playing time in the Majors during July of that year. He was up with the Marlins to stay in 1998 (partly because they had dumped most of their previous season's World Series winning roster).

He spent two seasons with the Marlins before being traded to the Padres for Matt Clement. He finally started to develop some on base skill in San Diego, but he has never really managed to show much power as a Major Leaguer - not that it was expected of him. Where he was truly starting to make a difference was as a strong defensive center fielder, a fact that drew the lustful eye of Billy Beane, who traded Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez to acquire Kotsay in November of 2003.

Kotsay's defensive skill started to slip a couple of years after going to Oakland though, which didn't help the fact that he was also becoming offensively offensive. Kotsay was injured for a good portion of the 2007 season and sucked for the rest of it. He posted a 57 OPS+ in 56 games with Oakland that season, and he wasn't the same player in CF that he had been just a few years before. In 2008, he split time between Boston and Atlanta and was basically a replacement level player during the year.

He hasn't posted an OBP above .340 since 2004, which is also the last time he was much above average as a defensive player. Honestly, I'm not sure how he makes 45th on Dierkes's list and I'm even more confused why the Reds would want him over Chris Dickerson. That doesn't mean it won't happen, just that I don't see why it should.

For reference sake, here is the breakdown for his last 4 seasons:

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RAR	Field	TtlVal
2005	629	15	82	5	.280	.325	.421	14.5	-3.0	14.3
2006	558	7	59	6	.275	.332	.386	4.6	-3.0	4.4
2007	226	1	20	1	.214	.279	.296	-8.0	-0.3	-7.0
2008	436	6	49	2	.276	.329	.403	6.0	-10.0	-3.0

Monday's links to think on

2008-11-03T19:52:31Z

Getty Images

You will surely be shocked to learn that Jim Bowden and the Nationals are after Adam Dunn. Just imagine Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Adam Dunn all in the outfield at the same time. Now imagine a fellow in leather pants tooling around foul territory on a Segway. Now stop imagining, because if you do it too much you'll go blind.
With the GM meetings under way, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick looks at 7 things to look for in the offseason. None of them, not surprisingly, include the Reds. The only player among its top 50 free agents that MLB Trade Rumors sees us getting iis Mark Kotsay.
The Florence Freedom hired former Reds second-rounder Toby Rumfield for their front office. Outside a 29-homer season with the Winston-Salem Spirits in '94, Rumfield never really panned out and never reached the majors. But if you don't remember him, maybe you can catch a glimpse in Florence, Y'all.
Anyone hoping for Mike Cameron can cross him off your list. He re-upped with the Brewers for 1 year, $10M.
The Reds selected David Bell to manage at Double-A Carolina. Chris Bosio (pitching coach) and Ryan Jackson (hitting coach) will be joining him.
If you haven't sen it yet, check out John Erardi's piece -- with help from our own Slyde -- on tweaking the Reds.

Why the Reds should trade for Cody Ross

2008-11-01T17:32:13Z

I know, FTH right?

Cody Ross was one of the many who came through the revolving door that was the Reds roster back in '06. Wayner picked him up from the Dodgers for a song and, after 5 memorable ABs with the club, quickly sold him to the Marlins for a few thousand JC Penney gift cards (he is reportedly a rabid admirer of their St John's Bay line). He got 250 ABs with the Marlins and induced almost as many yawns. '07 was a teaser year from Ross, as he only had 173 ABs due to a hamstring injury, but he really made good with what little time he had. He posted a line of .335/.411/.653 in 66 games and played admirable defense at all 3 outfield positions.

via codyross.org

In '08, Ross failed to match his Pujolsian production of the previous year, but still put up a respectable line of .260/.316/.488 in 461 ABs. According to Justin, he was the second-most valuable CF in the National League, behind only Shane Victorino. He posted a RAR of 23.1, FRAR of 8.5, and a Total Value of 32.1. In case you were wondering, the soon-to-be free agent and all-around good guy Adam Dunn posted a Total Value of 23.8. He will be arb-eligible for the first time this winter and the Marlins may be looking to shed a few of their 16 arb-eligible players. According to this post at MLBTraderumors the Marlins are looking to keep him, but perhaps the allure of a few intriguing prospects and the reduction of payroll could be enough to pry him loose.

So those are the positives. He's a right-handed high SLG-low OBP guy who rates as an above average center fielder. But of course, that low OBP should set off alarms. .316 (his lifetime is .324) is just a notch better than our favorite free-swinger Brandon Phillips. This team has an issue getting on base as it is, and Ross would do little to remedy that. And this whole exercise could be rendered moot if the Marlins are not interested in trading him at all. So there is that as well. And we cannot overlook the fact that he's had exactly one fully productive season in the major leagues. Those are the negatives.

Ross in LF sounds much more palatable to me than the expensive (both in prospects and $$) soon-to-be free agent Matt Holliday and the expensive and soon-to-be old Magglio Ordonez. He rates as a great defensive LF, though his OPS of ~.820 would be a bit below average. All together though, he would be a solidly above average guy to have in our outfield.

So what kind of trade package would it take to get Ross from the Marlins? It certainly wouldn't take any of the players on our current ML roster, which is a big plus. They won't be asking for Cueto. I'm not even sure it would take any of our top 5 prospects, like Frazier, Stubbs, Valaika, or Soto. They just sent Mike Jacobs to the Royals for an unproven and unspectacular middle reliever, so that should give us a bit of an indicator. Though Ross is more valuable than Jacobs, I think a package of mid-tier prospects should get it done.

Defense, in both the infield and outfield, has been one of the most damning problems for this team for a while now. Ross would be a huge defensive upgrade in the outfield while holding his own with the stick. He also would not be cost-prohibitive, as he stands to make a Corey Patterson wage this year and shouldn't cost us any of our most valuable prospects. This is something the Reds should seriously look into.

tRick or tReat

2008-10-31T11:30:05Z

Paul Connors/AP

I thought we'd celebrate All Hallows Eve with the scariest Red Reporter posts of the past 12 months. Please feel free to add your own.

There was this ghoulish FanPost back in March that led to months of fun in center field. Corey Patterson might not have been much of a power hitter. He might not have been much of a contact hitter. He might not have been much of a baserunner. He might not have been much in the field. But.

It's been a while, but there was a time when we thought Jeff Keppinger's knee injury might have been a serious blow to the Reds' playoff chances. Still, that was definitely a nasty little injury, if for no other reason than I've always seen kneecaps as particularly vulnerable body parts and consider their injuries quite icky.

This post was so scary it might make you cry.

In the scariest moment I've ever read about on a baseball diamond, one of our minor league squads got into a squabble with some idiot Cubs farmhands, one of whom pelted an innocent fan with a fastball. Thankfully, that dolt is being brought to justice.

Sometimes the writing by local writers is downright scary. ...

... and sometimes boyish good looks just make people frightened. Plus, "His commercials make me sick to my sotmach."

Finally, despite what the ads say, change isn't always embraced by the masses. SBN scared the shit outta y'all.

What posts/threads remind you guys of the Halloween spirit?

Who would you trade to get Holliday or Ordonez?

2008-10-30T12:00:07Z

David Zalubowski/AP

Matt Holliday

Left Fielder
Born: January 15, 1980
Bats: R Throws: R
Contract Status: 2009 - $13.5 million, free agent after 2009

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RAR	FRAR	TtlVal
2006	667	34	114	10	.326	.387	.586	45.8	6.8	47.0
2007	713	36	137	11	.340	.405	.607	61.7	10.8	66.8
2008	623	25	88	28	.321	.409	.538	52.3	8.2	55.3

Eric Risberg/AP

Magglio Ordonez

Left Fielder
Born: January 28, 1974
Bats: R Throws: R
Contract Status: 2009 - $18M, 2010 - $15M option ($3M buyout), 2011 - $15M option (no buyout) * Options become guaranteed at $18M (2010) & $15M (2011) with either 135 starts or 457 PAs in 2009.

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RAR	FRAR	TtlVal
2006	646	24	104	1	.298	.350	.477	30.6	-8.3	17.0
2007	678	28	139	4	.363	.434	.595	78.8	2.2	75.9
2008	623	21	103	1	.317	.376	.494	36.2	-10.0	21.4

These are two players who have gotten some mention in the local press as potential acquisitions. I'm not so convinced, but I thought I'd bring them up to the RR intelligentsia. A couple of notes on both players:

Some have said that they don't want Holliday because of the Coors effect, but I'm not buying that as a reason. His power drops a bit away from Coors, but that should be less of an issue coming to GABP. Even with the dip in power, he's still posted lines of .301/.374/.485 and .308/.405/.486 on the road the last two years. He'd still be the Reds best hitter with those numbers.

I honestly don't have a whole lot of interest in Magglio Ordonez, but I thought he was a good juxtaposition to Holliday. As you can see, he'd probably be a defensive liability in LF and his contract is only attractive if he's not healthy - if that makes sense. The good news is that his availability is primarily because the Tigers want to dump some salary, so hopefully it wouldn't cost too much to acquire him. Still though, I'm not sure he's worth it.

What do you think? Do either of these guys interest you for LF next season? Who would you be willing to trade to get them?

World Series Game 5 Thread, Continued. 2-2, middle of the sixth

2008-10-29T22:56:54Z

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Grant Balfour	6-2	1.54	0.90	82	24

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2008 - Ryan Madson	4-2	3.05	1.24	67	23

This game is supposed to get back under way at 8:37, just after Barack Obama's half-hour national ad. The Phillies lead the series 3-1. There's still the possibility of the game being postponed again -- by rain or by snow.