First of all, Happy New Year!  I know we're way into 2009 already, but I wanted to make sure I said it.

Secondly, I've been looking at the list of available free agents trying to figure out if there is a way the Reds can start to sniff a playoff spot by picking up one player.  It's unlikely, but what else do we have to talk about?

Before we look at the available players, let's look at the projections we currently have for the Reds outfield:

I haven't looked at other outfields, but I'd guess that getting only 5 wins from your outfield isn't all that good.  Clearly, the Reds need some help.

Can anyone bring that help?  There has been talk about Rocco Baldelli (0.7 WAR over 300 PA projected), Ty Wigginton (1.5 WAR/500 PA), and Pat Burrell (1.6 WAR/560 PA), but none of those players would be the significant upgrade that the Reds need to be contenders. 

In fact, the way I see it, only two remaining free agents could bump the Reds up enough to make a serious impact toward this season.  The first is unrealistic given his expected price tag.  Manny Ramirez (3.1 WAR / 595 PA) is going to get $20+ million a year and there is no reason the Reds should or could pay that.

The other player is someone that I've hesistant about, but now I think might be worth it.  If Milton Bradley (3.1 WAR / 462 PA) can play decent defense in LF, he may be worth the 3yr/$30 million that he is asking for to the Reds.  If you give him Dickerson's at bats and then bump everyone down to the next level in playing time, the outfield goes from a 5.1 win OF to 7.7 win OF.  This would also bump the Reds as a team up to a 82-win projection.

I know 82 wins is not much to get excited about, but I think we're starting to get within range of the playoffs in the "if everything goes right" scenario.  This is especially true if you consider that the Reds have two serious break-out candidates in Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto.  If both of those players reach their 70th percentile CHONE projections, the Reds will pick up another 2-3 wins.  Given a little luck (say, Bradley reaching 600 PA or EdE also breaking out big time), we could be in the hunt for the playoffs.

Or maybe the liquor hasn't worn off from New Year's Eve.

What are Reds fans discussing at the water cooler on a Wednesday morning in December?  Use this as an open thread for today.  If you haven't listened to the Hot Stove league thing in obc's diary, it's worth checking out, if only because Marty kind of comes off as a blowhard and cream-of-the-crap Reds fans are calling in suggesting that Roger Clemens and David Eckstein are the answers to the Reds problems.

A few links:

• Fay has an article up about the free agents that the Reds are/should be pursuing.  Nothing new there, but it's kind of a primer on what the Reds may be up to.  Names mentioned: Jerry Hairston Jr., Willy Taveras, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell, Milton Bradley, Rocco Baldelli, and Gabe Kapler.
• Doug has a good article up on RML about the future of the Reds LF.  Also, the Hawaiian Winter League is no more.
• JinAZ has a detailed look at the Freel/Hernandez trade (linking it a little late, I know, but it's worth checking out).
• C. Trent has a Dominican Winter League update from Rob Butcher on his blog today.
  
  

  Juan Francisco has 9 home runs for Cibao, a new Dominican Winter League record for a lefthanded batter. The previous record for HR by a LH batter in the DWL was 8, established by Rafael Batista in 1974 and tied by Batista in 1975.

Unfortunately, the Reds have been pretty quiet this week.  A few other non-Reds related links:

• Ken posted this anecdote about Pat Burrell (the one at the bottom).  After reading this, I would love to have this guy in Cincinnati.
• Brendan posted a crazy story involving Brian Giles.  Let's hope that isn't true.
• Soccer news!  Columbus Crew stadium is hosting the home leg of a USA v. Mexico World Cup Qualifying match.  In February.  Smart move by the US Soccer Federation.

If you guys see anything else worth posting, feel free to post them in the comments.

I'm fighting my first cold of the season and it's moved into my sinuses, so all you get are links once again.  Special thanks to Scrabbles and Kyle for posting something worth talking about the last couple of days.  I hope to be back to a healthier level tomorrow.

• Baseball Prospectus has the Hot Stove Preview up for the Reds.  It's behind the subscription wall, so I can only give you a blurb:

  So here's the suggestion that they sneak up on people by giving Milton Bradley a multi-year offer to play left field in a park he'll continue to thrive in. Skip the cautions over dealing in-division, and try to get Alcides Escobar and whatever else from the Brewers for Arroyo, resolving their shortstop problem and adding a hitter who, while he won't get on base a lot, will deliver more power than you expect because of his ability to make contact in a homer-happy park.

  Bradley's not a bad idea, but he might be too expensive and risky for a team that isn't quite ready to compete. I have to think the Brewers would be more likely to trade Hardy than Escobar, especially if they are taking on salary. I wouldn't mind having either one.
• Crosley Field Terrace likes the new Mariners GM's plan to set up a statistical analysis department.  I think he also is personally asking me to hassle Jocketty at Redsfest next month.  Sounds like a plan.
• Doug's been doing some thinking about Justin Turner.  He's an interesting, under-the-radar prospect in my opinion.  I think he'll be a good player some day, but probably not for the Reds.
• The Orioles are interested in adding Wayne Krivsky to their front office.  Is it too late to trade him for Brian Roberts?
• Can you name the last 10 NL MVPs in 3 minutes?  How about the last 10 AL MVPs?  I got all of the NL and missed 2 from the AL.
• The AFL has named 6 finalists for the Dernell Stenson Award.  None of them are Reds prospects, but I think it's good to think about Stenson every once in a while to remind ourselves how quickly it could all end.
• Brew Crew Ball thinks that the Brewers could get CC Sabathia if they just add a 6th year to the deal, even if they don't match the Yankees money.  As little as I want to see CC face the Reds 5 times a year, I'm kind of rooting for Sabathia to pick the Brewers over the Yanks.  And once he does, I'll start rooting for him to get hurt. :)
• Does anybody know if the MLB Network is going to be carried by Time Warner in Cincinnati?  If it is, I may very well get fired for lack of output in my job.