First of all, Happy New Year!  I know we're way into 2009 already, but I wanted to make sure I said it.

Secondly, I've been looking at the list of available free agents trying to figure out if there is a way the Reds can start to sniff a playoff spot by picking up one player.  It's unlikely, but what else do we have to talk about?

Before we look at the available players, let's look at the projections we currently have for the Reds outfield:

I haven't looked at other outfields, but I'd guess that getting only 5 wins from your outfield isn't all that good.  Clearly, the Reds need some help.

Can anyone bring that help?  There has been talk about Rocco Baldelli (0.7 WAR over 300 PA projected), Ty Wigginton (1.5 WAR/500 PA), and Pat Burrell (1.6 WAR/560 PA), but none of those players would be the significant upgrade that the Reds need to be contenders. 

In fact, the way I see it, only two remaining free agents could bump the Reds up enough to make a serious impact toward this season.  The first is unrealistic given his expected price tag.  Manny Ramirez (3.1 WAR / 595 PA) is going to get $20+ million a year and there is no reason the Reds should or could pay that.

The other player is someone that I've hesistant about, but now I think might be worth it.  If Milton Bradley (3.1 WAR / 462 PA) can play decent defense in LF, he may be worth the 3yr/$30 million that he is asking for to the Reds.  If you give him Dickerson's at bats and then bump everyone down to the next level in playing time, the outfield goes from a 5.1 win OF to 7.7 win OF.  This would also bump the Reds as a team up to a 82-win projection.

I know 82 wins is not much to get excited about, but I think we're starting to get within range of the playoffs in the "if everything goes right" scenario.  This is especially true if you consider that the Reds have two serious break-out candidates in Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto.  If both of those players reach their 70th percentile CHONE projections, the Reds will pick up another 2-3 wins.  Given a little luck (say, Bradley reaching 600 PA or EdE also breaking out big time), we could be in the hunt for the playoffs.

Or maybe the liquor hasn't worn off from New Year's Eve.

When Walt Jocketty was hired on, I figured his number one priority was going to be to improve the team defense.  His reputation from St. Louis was that he valued solid defense (evidence by the acquisitions of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Mike Matheny, and a variety of solid defensive 2B and SS).  During his tenure with the Cardinals, his teams were consistently strong on defense, and occasionally among the top teams. 

The Reds, on the other hand, have been in the bottom 5 in the Majors for team defense over the last 5 years (according to UZR).  Last season they were 42 runs below average on defense, leading only the Colorado Rockies (think they missed having a healthy Tulowitzki?).  And while they'll be helped by the departures of Adam Dunn (-12.8 UZR) and Ken Griffey Jr. (-12.8 UZR), it doesn't appear that Jocketty is too concerned with getting good defenders to replace them. Jay Bruce (-7.8 UZR in RF, -5.1 overall) should see some improvements, but with talk of acquiring Jermaine Dye (an average of -16.5 UZR over the last 3 seasons), Pat Burrell (-12.7 UZR 3-year avg), Juan Rivera (career -6.2 UZR/150game in limited OF playing time), and Rocco Baldelli (-2.0 UZR/150 in limited playing time for his career), the Reds don't appear focused on fixing a major problem with the 2008 team.

On top of that, it looks like the plan is to continue to use Edwin Encarnacion (-9.3 UZR) at 3B and some combination of a questionably healthy Alex Gonzalez (5.5 UZR in 2007, before a lengthy knee injury) and Jeff Keppinger (-12.7 UZR) at shortstop without any sort of a backup plan in place.  If Gonzalez can regain his 2007 form, he'd be a definite upgrade over Keppinger from last year, but is there a bigger question mark player on this team right now than Gonzalez?

And let's not forget the recent acquisition of the defensively challenged Ramon Hernandez (somewhere around -9 runs on defense in 2008).

I realize the Reds need some serious help on offense.  Without a major bat being added this team will have a hard time scoring 700 runs.  But even if they somehow get to 750 runs on offense, if they don't improve the defense dramatically, I don't see them surrendering less than 800 runs next year.  Outside of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and possibly Chris Dickerson, the Reds have no plus defenders on the field at this point.  Continuing to acquire crappy fielders is a step backward, even if they do boost the offense some. 

Since 2009 is looking more and more like a longshot, I think any multi-year deals should be used on acquiring players who can provide a defensive upgrade.  The Reds have plenty of offense brewing in the minors (Valaika, Frazier, Alonso being the big 3), but they have very little defensive help outside of Drew Stubbs.  This will likely mean trading Edwin Encarnacion (I hate to say it, but I feel like that might be the right move at this point).  I'd prefer to see EdE in LF in 2009, but even then, he'll have to make some big offensive strides to not be the odd-man out once Yonder Alonso is ready in 2010 or 2011.

Unfortunately I don't have any names of who to acquire.  We've talked about Adrian Beltre (12.9 UZR in 2008), but we have no idea if he's available.  J.J. Hardy (11.3 UZR) would be a helluva pickup, but I don't see the Brewers trading him right now.  Perhaps there are some minor leaguers.  Are there any minor leaguers that might fit the bill?  I'm not all that familiar with other systems, especially when it comes to strong defensive players.

via Chris Sabo's Goggles

Tired of standing in line at your polling place? 

Do you wish there was a place where you could vote on the issues that really matter to you? 

Well, you've come to the right place.  Today Red Reporter will allow you to cast your ballot to decide what matters most to you the Reds fan.  Cast your ballot in the comments and let's see democracy inaction.

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Mike Carlson/AP

Reuters

Evan Longoria has gotten a lot of pub lately with his performance in the playoffs, as well he should.  He's had one of the best post-seasons by a rookie in recent memory, and he's still got at least 4 more games to go.  It's been a fine topper to a very good rookie season.

And yet, I'm still left wondering who I would take between Longoria and our own Jay Bruce over the long term.  Longoria has clearly had a better start to his Major League career, but that is only one piece to the puzzle for two players who have incredibly bright futures laying before them.

In his Baseball Prospect Book last season, John Sickels rated Bruce #1 for hitters with Longoria a close 2nd.  They both destroyed the minors, with Bruce showing a little more power (.308/.366/.555) and Longoria a little more plate discipline (.301/.386/.534).  The both came up with strong defensive reputations, but I think it's safe to say that only Longoria has shown that to be true at this point.  That's not to say Bruce won't improve, but some are already talking about Longoria for the Gold Glove.

Longoria definitely has the head start in the majors, but I wouldn't discount the year-and-a-half age difference between the two.  If we were talking about a 31-year old-and a 30-year old, it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but young players at this age can make huge strides from one season to the next.  It wouldn't be shocking for Bruce to have a better offensive year than Longoria next year.  So while this past season was important, it shouldn't be the end of the discussion.

Which leads me to this...who would take, if given the choice of having one or the other?  I honestly don't think there is wrong choice.  I think both of these guys are going to be MVP caliber players for most of the next 10 years.  If I had the choice between the two, I'd probably take Longoria because of the defense, but truthfully I'm just happy that we have one of them on the Reds.

As writer's are prone to do this time of season, Hal McCoy wonders whether the 2009 Reds could be the 2008 Phillies next season.  He poses several questions to that end:

Can Edison Volquez be Cole Hamels? Why not?

Can Brandon Phillips be Chase Utley? Why not?

Can Joey Votto be Ryan Howard. Why not?

Can Jay Bruce be Shane Victorino. Why not?

Can Francisco Cordero be Brad Lidge? Why not?

Can Alex Gonzalez be Jimmy Rollins? Why not?

Can Hal be serious?  Let's break it down...

The Wagon vs. Hamels is a decent comp.  Volquez was close to Hamels this season, so it's not without merit.  In fact, I would say the Reds have a better starting rotation overall than the Phillies, especially if you assume that Harang is finally recovered from his San Diego relief appearance (we need a name for that game).

BP vs. Utley is not even close.  Both players had a typical season compared to their career numbers and Utley topped BP by 31 points in batting average, 68 points in OBP, and 93 points in slugging, all while playing arguably better defense than BP.  Phillips has a long way to go to be Chase Utley.  A long way.

Votto vs. Howard is closer than I expected.  Howard (in 2008) definitely has the power advantage, but Votto makes up the difference in batting average and OBP.  I think there is very little chance of Votto getting close to Howard's best seasons or matching his power output, but I think it's plausible for him to match Ryan Howard in 2008 in overall production.

Bruce vs. Victorino is an odd comp because they are very different players.  I don't believe that Bruce will match Victorino's production in 2009, but I think eventually he'll be the better player. 

CoCo vs Lidge isn't close this year.  Lidge had an incredible, nearly flawless year.  Not that CoCo can't do it, or that he has to do it, but what Lidge did this year rare.  Sure, relief pitchers - especially closers - pitch so few innings that it could be duplicated, but it's very doubtful.  What's more important though is that the Reds will need to match the entire Phillies bullpen.  They were close this year, but there is still work to do.  It will be tough.

Sea Bass vs. JRoll is ludicrous.  Gonzalez had a career year in 2007 and didn't play at all in the 2008.  Rollins's career numbers are still better than Gonzalez's best season and 2008 was a fairly average season for Rollins.  I think Rollins is overrated, but I also think that Gonzalez isn't even close.

So, what do you think?  Can the Reds go to the series next year?

Charles Dharapak/AP

Nice night at the ballpark this evening.  Four Reds players had 2 hits each, including Jay Bruce and Joey Votto who both also homered.  Bronson Arroyo had his 10th quality start in his last 13 games pitched and picked up his 14th win of the season.  The Cubs lost their 6th straight game, though they may still take a game off of their magic number since Eric Gagne blows.  Corey Patterson...uh, forget it.

Tonight's question of the night is, who will hit more home runs the rest of the season Joey Votto or Jay Bruce.  Votto has 2 more on the season as a whole, albeit in 120 more PAs.  I'd probably go with Votto since he has been white hot lately, but Bruce is starting to hit over the last week or so as well, so it could be interesting.

I've been misreporting this for a couple of days, so I wanted to clarify that if either player can reach 20 HRs, it will be the most by a Reds rookie since Bernie Carbo hit 21 in 1970.  If either player tops that 21, it will be second to only Frank Robinson's 38 in 1956.  I think it'd be pretty cool if both guys could top 21 this season, just for shits and giggles.

When the Reds traded Josh Hamilton to the Texas Rangers in December, it was hardly a blockbuster deal. Hamilton was a reformed addict with fewer than 300 major league at-bats, and Volquez was an erratic young flamethrower with a 3-11 career record. A trade of potential, sure, but certainly not a trade of stars.

   
Tony Gutierrez/AP (Hamilton), Getty Images (Volquez)

Now that Hamilton is the leading candidate for AL MVP and Volquez is the leading candidate for NL Cy Young, it looks like the biggest trade of the past year. Conventional wisdom says that both teams profited from the swap, and given the great luck both guys have had, I agree with that. But curiosity is probably leading many of you to wonder if the Reds made the right move; indeed, I've read several comments pondering what the team would look like if we still had Hobbs.

So I set out to learn how good the Reds would be had The Big Trade never happened. What I found, if you'll indulge me after the jump, is that we're better off with the stud we have than the stud we had. Part of the reason is, as The Hardball Times says, "A run saved is not equal to a run scored." The other part of the reason is the pitchers we have to replace Volquez wouldn't be doing a lot of run-saving. Meet me after the jump...

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David Kohl/AP

• Josh Roenicke made his Triple-A debut, and Todd Frazier went 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. Daryl Thompson goes today for the Bats.
• No word yet on NL Player of the Week, but MLB.com has a centerpiece story up about him. In it, his agent, Matt Sosnick, calls Bruce a "once-in-a-lifetime player for me."
  

  "Josh Hamilton might win the Triple Crown this year, but Jay is better," Sosnick said. "I'll take it to the grave."

  (note: Josh Hamilton just switched agents from Sosnick, so he might have some axe to grind. Or it might be that Josh switched after hearing these quotes. Who knows.)
• Bob Nightengale reports the Reds have their own nickname for Jay: "Babe Bruce." Trent has also picked that as his favorite and derides "The Boss" as an ESPN creation. It started here, Trent!
• Hey fellas, how about this for a T-shirt idea?
• Check out this story from The Courier-Journal in Louisville about Homer getting the call in the middle of the Bats game. He didn't see it coming.
  
• Doug has a Casey Kelly profile up at redsminorleagues.com. Kelly is the son of Reds GCL manager Pat Kelly. By all accounts Kelly would be a stretch at No. 7, and I think we took our shot on a stretch pick last year. If we don't get a college star on Thursday I'm going to be really disappointed.
  

That's all for now. We're Philly-bound this week -- starting tonight -- with some crazy good pitching matchups.