Another week in the books. Let's see how our minor leaguers are doing, shall we?

Donnie Joseph

After a disappointing year at AA last year, it seems like he's starting to figure things out in his second full season there. He's got 9 saves in 19 games, and a 0.40 ERA, with 32 strikeouts and only 5 walks so far. Are we looking at the left-handed Boxberger?

Tony Cingrani

I keep waiting for this guy to have an even remotely bad outing, and it hasn't happened yet. He leads the league in ERA and strikeouts, and since being drafted, he's struck out 145 hitters in less than 100 innings and only walked 16. I'm going to keep bringing this up, because I've never seen a Reds pitching prospect put up these kind of numbers.

Theo Bowe

T-Bowe made waves earlier in the season when he challenged B-Ham to the SB crown. His 15 in 2 months isn't gonna cut it, but he's been hitting in his first 8 games in A+ ball. He's hitting a .478/.586/.783 clip so far in Bako, which, if he could keep it up, may mean that he beats Billy to A A.

Billy Hamilton

Speaking of B-Ham, he's getting a reputation for streakiness. After his torrid start, he's been hitting .146/.255/.268 in his last 10 games, bringing his average all the way down to .309. He's still leading the world in stolen bases with 40 (in MAY), but the bat needs to show some consistency.

David Vidal

Definitely been having a good season, but his transition to AA has been rocky so far. In his first 6 games, he's been hitting .160/.160/.320 with no extra base hits so far. That cushy run environment in the Cali league is looking pretty nice.

Nick O'Shea

Came in with high expectations for this year, but hasn't played well. 2 hits in his last 36 AB, and no homers yet despite having 7 in Billings last year. He's making a transition to catcher, so hopefully it's just nerves.

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The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

My favorite whipping boy, Ryan Ludwick, was the difference maker today. Ludwick went 3 for 5 with a honked wanger and a key 2-out, 2 run double in the top of the 9th to put the game out of reach. The guy has struggled mightily since he first donned a Reds cap, and had been held out of the last few games due to a swollen elbow caused by an R.A. Dickey "quick" ball, but today he kicked serious tail. Good on ya, Ludwi C.K. Keep this up and I'll gladly eat crow the rest of the year.

Very honorable mention goes to Johnny Cueto, who went toe to toe with a legitimate ace in C.C. Sabathia...and came out on top. Already the owner of the best ERA in the majors over the last season and a half, Cueto further cemented his status as an elite pitcher by putting in 7+ innings of 2 run ball on the biggest stage in the game. Fans in the stands were actually smiling by the 7th inning, as they'd finally realized their front office was going to offer the kid a $400 million contract when his current one is over. Hat tips, too, are deserved for both Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman, both of whom were effective in their new (swapped) roles.

I hope this doesn't get overlooked, because it's high time he himself stops getting overlooked...but Ryan Hanigan is a fantastic catcher, and the Reds are damn lucky to have him. Get off your butts, go to mlb.com, and vote for the guy to start the All-Star game. He won't win, and odds are the jerk in charge of the NL team will overlook him, but I dare you to find a more underappreciated, underpaid, unassuming player in all of baseball. I criticize Dusty Baker for a lot of things, but one thing he deserves high praise for is letting Hanigan become what he's become while Devin Mesoraco sits more than the Keith Law's of the world would like. Big props, guys. Big, big props.

Key Plays

• The pitcher's duel that was called for on paper materialized exactly how we expected. Both Cueto and Sabathia were pounding the strike zone, and when their pitches were hit, few, if any, were hit hard through the first half of the game. It wasn't until the 6th inning when the Yankees squared up on Cueto, as Robinson Cano smoked a double to center before scoring on Raul Ibanez's home run. Yankees lead, 2-0.
• The Reds (as they have made a habit of doing, which is awesomecoachingmaterial) wasted no time in getting back in the game, however, as Ryan Ludwick led off the top of the 7th with a wanked donker. After Todd Frazier flied out, Ryan Hanigan crushed one out to left as well. The Reds were out to disprove the myth that solo HRs are rally killers, and went small ball to wrap up the inning. Zack Cozart reached on an infield single, and Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips walked behind him to score again. Reds lead, 3-2.
• For good measure, Ludwick struck again in the 9th. Phillips and Bruce singled, and Ludwick scored them both on a double to left off of former stud reliever Rafael Soriano. Aroldis Chapman was called upon for the first save opportunity of this season, and promptly mowed down the remaining Yankees. Reds win, 5-2.

via www.fangraphs.com

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EDIT: Looks like this is all for naught. Chapman is your new closer, at least, once he gets a day off.

Look, Sean Marshall didn't sign up for this. The past few years, he developed into one of the premiere setup men in baseball, and he was cool with that. The Reds traded for him with designs on keeping him as one of the premiere setup men in baseball, and he was cool with that. He and Ryan Madson were going to be a dynamic duo at the back end of the new-look Reds bullpen, and Sean Marshall was cool with that.

Then Madson got hurt. He shredded his elbow before even throwing a pitch for the Reds. So there was a change of plans. The Reds asked Marshall if he would take on the closer's mantle, and yeah, he was cool with that. There was really no reason to believe he couldn't handle it. Premiere setup men become premiere closers all the time (just ask Ryan Madson). But it hasn't been as smooth a transition as the Reds and Marshall would like. And now, less than two months into the season, the Reds are already contemplating taking the Marshall's badge and gun. But that is a really, really bad idea.

Admittedly, the results for Sean Marshall, Closer haven't been as good as we'd all like. In 16 appearances so far, he's only posted three clean 1-2-3 innings. He has seven saves and only one blown save, but he's also been pulled twice so one of his bullpen mates could clean up his mess. He also earned the loss when he entered a tie game in extra-innings in Washington. You can squint all you like, but those results do not look good.

The funny thing about pitchers though (and doubly funny for relief pitchers) is that results-oriented numbers like saves and losses and such just aren't very good at capturing value. I mean, we're only talking about 14.1 innings so far. But even setting the Small Sample Size argument aside, we can see that Marshall is pitching just as well - if not better - than he did when he was one of the premiere setup men in baseball while with the Cubs. Check it:

He's striking out more batters, walking fewer, and inducing more ground balls this year than he has the past few years. So what the heck? Why are they talking about replacing him as closer? Uh, well, here are some more numbers:

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The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Today's victory was a well-rounded team effort, but our resident Canuck Wanger-Honker gets the nod for the JNMHSotG. Votto had the big knock of the day, a 3-run HR off Ivan Nova in the 5th to break open (at that point) the game. I'm not sure it wouldn't have been an inside-the-parker had it not just barely cleared the wall, since I doubt the Yankees outfielders would have known what to do with a Reds At-Bat that didn't end in strikeout.

Honorable mentions are due to Homer Bailey (quality start, keeping LH's Cano and Granderson at bay), Chris Heisey (2 for 5, RBI double, great catch in LF), and Devin Mesoraco (1 for 3, 2B, R, HBP, only Red to not K). Very extra-special Honorable mention to Mike Costanzo, who picked up his first major league hit (and his second RBI). Congrats, Mr. Sideburns.

Key Plays

• The Reds got havocky early today. In the first, Drew Stubbs walked and stole second, and after Joey Votto walked, Brandon Phillips singled to score Stubbs. That's so, so cleanuppy. The Reds struck again in the second when Devin Mesoraco hit a ground-rule double and later scored on a Chris Heisey double. Reds lead, 2-0.
• Before Jeff Brantley could fully jinx Homer Bailey by telling the radio audience how well he'd looked in retiring the first 6 Yankees in order, Russell Martin smoked a donker on the first pitch of the 3rd inning. In the 4th, Curtis Granderson walked and was out at second on a fielder's choice hit by Robinson Cano, and Cano then scored on a double by the skeleton formerly known as Raul Ibanez. Game tied, 2-2.
• Why anyone ever gives Joey Votto a pitch to hit in a low-leverage situation is beyond me, so the fact that he was given a grooved strike to hit in a high-leverage situation blew me away. Maybe the only TV station Joe Girardi gets is ESPN, in which case he would have never seen the Reds play. That would explain why he let Ivan Nova pitch to our Canuckian boom-crusher with two men on. Votto hit a laser into the right-center bleachers, scoring Wee Willie Valdez and Drew Stubbs. Reds lead, 5-2.
• Jayson Niyx hoynked a soylo waynger in the 5th to make it a 5-3 game, but thankfully, the Reds secret weapon provided them with a 6th run in the 8th inning that would prove to be the difference. Following a Phillips single, Bruce walk, and Frazier reaching on a fielder's choice, Mike Costanzo stung one deep enough to CF to plate Phillips from 3rd base on a sac fly. That would matter because Sean Marshall pitched like he still had that Cub smell on him in the 9th. Marshall gave up hits to the first 2 batters in the 9th and 4 of the 5 batters he faced, allowing two runs before being pulled in favor of Jose Arredondo. Thankfully, Arredondid retire Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson to end the rally. Reds win, 6-5!

via www.fangraphs.com

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The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

In a nutshell, tonight's start by Bronson Arroyo was a microcosm of his career as a Red. The bullpen had been taxed by a lack of deep starts by the other starting pitchers, his opponent on the mound was a former ace/future Hall of Famer, he was due to pitch in a park that promotes wangers...versus a lineup prone to honking wangers, and he gave the Reds a solid yet unspectacular effort. Arroyo made it through the first 7 innings having allowed only 1 run, and under normal bullpen circumstances he likely would have been lifted; however, he stuck around and got beat up a bit while saving the arms in the 'pen a bit. His final line: 7.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, BB, 4 K, 102 pitches.

Honorable mention goes to Chris Heisey, who went 1 for 3 with a walk, and to Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce, whose 8 combined strikeouts gave the fans a nice breeze on a muggy May evening in NYC.

Key Plays

• The closest the Reds came to threatening to threaten was in the first. Zack Cozart struck out, but reached on an error by catcher Chris Stewart. Cozart took 2nd on a passed ball by Stewart, and moved to third on a bunt by Drew Stubbs (!). The Reds then got a few multimillion dollar strikeouts from Votto and Phillips, and the rally was thwarted.
• The Yankees smawl bawled their way to the first run of the game in the 4th. Curtis Granderson led off with a single, and moved to third on a single by Robinson Cano. A-Roid* then hit a jammed grounder to Cozart, scoring Granderson.
  
• In the 8th, Bronson retired the first two batters before yielding a quacker to Cano. A-Roid* followed with a single, and Raul Ibanez farked a looger, scoring both. The Reds rally consisted of consistent out-making. Yankees win, 4-0.

via www.fangraphs.com

*FanGraphs had this listed as an "American League" game. I resent that.

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The Reds continue their stay in New York by taking on the Yankees this weekend. Despite their good-not-great record, this team scares me. They have (as usual) an outstanding offense, which currently ranks 3rd overall behind the Cardinals and the Rangers. Their starting pitching has been bad in the ERA department, but have posted excellent peripheral numbers that predict better things to come. And their bullpen has posted excellent numbers, though they're currently several men down with the losses of both Mariano Rivera and David Robinson. The only thing this team doesn't seem to do well is field. They pretty clearly suck a fielding, actually.

On the other hand, the Reds' fielding numbers continue to run lower than expected. I think they'll rebound, but I'm not sure that we can say this is a top-tier defensive team this year. I don't know what the issue would be however--aside from maybe Frazier and possibly Ludwick, everyone getting regular playing time has a good if not excellent defensive reputation.

(New) Yankee Stadium Park Factors

Runs: 1.03

HR: 1.16 LHB / 1.06 RHB

This Yankee team would hit home runs anywhere. But the park does help. It has a third-highest park effect on home runs (overall--across both RHB and LHB's) in baseball, behind only U.S. Cellular Field (CHA) and Coors' Field (COL).

Which park is number four? Great American Ballpark.

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Apologies for the lateness, angeeh Farmers Only readers! Some unexpected inconveniences with the ol' Weez tractor last evening. No, that's not a euphemism. Yes, it's bad writing.

• Louisville beat Crotchester 4-2 behind some solid hurling by Brett Tomko, who went six innings, giving up 2 runs. I'm kind of surprised he's stuck around so long, but he's mediocring his way through the year with games like this, and his 3.78 FIP probably means he'll be around some more. Corky Miller stached himself a 2-4 evening off of his former battery mate, Daryl Thompson. Cody Puckett started his AAA career off with a bang, slapping 3 singles in his Bats debut. Up next: Jeff Francis (2-4, 4.17 ERA) takes on Rochester at 7:05.
• Pensacola gave up a walk-off 3-run shromper served up by Curtis Partch in the bottom of the ninth to lose to Jacksonville, 8-5. J.C. Sulbaran got Dutched up for 5 runs in 4 innings, and couldn't find his control, walking 4. David Vidal went all Yorman in the game, going 0-5 with 4Ks. He's 0-12 with 6 Ks and no walks so far as a Wahoo. The good news is that Didi is hitting again, as the gregarious Gregorius went 2-5 with a double and his first steal of the year. He's starting to hit for a bit of gap power, which is nice to see, so hopefully he doesn't try to stray from his comfort zone too much. Up next: Tim Gustafson (1-0, 4.55 ERA) takes on JAX at 7:05.
• Bakersfield lost a nail-biter to Lake Woebegon Lake Elsinore, 3-2. Sir Quix-a-Lot went 0-5, but still managed to steal his 39th base of the year and score a run. Fret not, he's still hitting .329 on the year. Theo Bowe is tearing up the California desert, as he went 2-4 and is now 7-12 as a Blaze (??), with 2 HRs. The Cal League, everybody. Josh "Boring Name" Smith went six strong innings, giving up just one run and struck out 9, but Jamie Wal--uh, Jamie Walzc--mm, Jamie Wal-notgunnaworkhere (Jamie Walczak) blew it, giving up 2 runs in 2 innings. Devin Lohman and Bryson Smith also had two hits each. Up next: Tony Cingrani (4-1, 0.68 ERA) looks to continue cuttin' fools against Lake Elsinore at 10:05 ET.
• Dayton scored 4 runs last night!! Unfortunately, the sucking. They still lost to Bowling Green 5-4. Poojols' boy Jacob Johnson made a decent return to professional ball, tossing 5 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball before getting pulled with a 2-1 lead. James "Lily" Allen promptly gave up a 3-run doober, and the Hot Rods never checked their rear-view mirror (sorry). Yovan Gonzalez and Kyle Waldrop had 2 hits apiece, the former a lone wanger and the latter 2 doubles. Up next: Dan Jensen (1-3, 2.28 ERA) takes on the Hot Rods at 8:05 eastern.

A quick programming note: I will be on the John Renshaw Show on 1450 the Sports Buzz this afternoon at 3:40 PM EDT to talk a bit o' Reds.

You got to appreciate what an explosive element this Chapman situation is

"The longer we go, it will be harder to stretch (Chapman) to start," Jocketty says. "We may be resigned to the fact that he will have to pitch in the bullpen all year."

The back-and-forth will-they-or-won't-they? Sam-and-Diane thing the Reds have going with Aroldis Chapman is boffo for ratings, isn't it? It's May Sweeps and the Reds are making sure they get as many eyeballs on the TV set as possible. They may be indecisiveness with important roster decisions, but they sure do know how to get us talking by the water cooler.

Look, this thing has been discussed ad-nauseam. We all know the arguments for and against. I suppose both sides can console themselves with the fact that no matter what happens, we still have one of the most talented pitchers of his generation suiting up for our team. There is really no wrong way to use Aroldis Chapman. I mean, I guess you could try to make him a right fielder or a bullpen catcher or something like that. That would be a bad way to use him.

The one thing that sticks in my craw though is just how risk-averse this Reds brain trust is. The biggest reason cited for why Chapman should remain in the bullpen is that you don't want to fix what ain't broken. It would take some work to get him into the rotation; it would mean taking the risk that maybe he wouldn't do well with it, or that his replacement in the bullpen wouldn't do as well. Too many variables. Too many what-ifs. It's best to leave well enough alone.

Except, there really is no risk. So what if Chapman doesn't take to it? So what if he's an unmitigated disaster as a starting pitcher? He can go right back to the bullpen and we are exactly where we were when it started. No harm done. There is no risk.

Unless you are Dusty Baker, of course. The risk you run is losing a few games in the standings down the stretch when your bullpen fails and giving people a clear scapegoat. That could be the difference between playoffs or no, and that could be the difference between having a job or not. And you know, that's understandable. Baker wants to keep his job, and the best way for a manager to lose his job is to take risks and have them backfire. So managers don't take risks.

So that's it. Chapman is probably going to be a reliever all season. I suppose if/when Nick Masset and Bill Bray get healthy there is a chance they make the transition then, but I doubt it. Bullpens are delicate and fungible beasts, and I doubt it will ever be settled enough for them to say they'd get along fine without Chapman. So whatever. He's terrific as a set-up man, and at least I get to watch him on my team. I suppose you have to look at the bright side in situations like this, because the dark side can drive you crazy.

Dusty says Ryan Ludwick will DH in at least two of the three games in AL NY
I would assume that's tonight against Andy Pettitte and Sunday against C.C. Sabathia. I guess I can't really argue with this, as the Reds bench isn't exactly built to play with the DH. There's really no good option, so I guess it might as well be Ducky. I think it would nice to see Mike Costanzo get the first start of career on Saturday, though. He could DH or play 3B or even 1B.

andromache keeps on kickin' the ki-nowledge
Joey Votto is leading the league in walks, but the rest of the team is not. He's drawn a larger percentage of his team's total walks than any other team walk leader in the league. If that sentence is a bit difficult to understand, check out the table she neatly put together. It's neat. Basically, Joey Votto is walking a bunch and nobody else on the team is. They need to be more like him.

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Most biographies of influential people can be read as both history and inspiration, teaching the reader about a factual timeline and an atypical mindset that drives a person to change his surroundings. Some bios, however, serve as a cautionary tale... ‘WARNING: This person's success was largely a function of his intersection with specific time and space coordinates. Do not attempt this at home.'

Ironically, the real star of Walter Isaacson's recent book on the life of Steve Jobs was not Jobs himself, but rather Jobs's "reality distortion field", the coined phrase of Jobs's co-workers which described his pattern of seeing the world as he wanted it to be instead of how it generally was. In one sense, this delusional capacity facilitated the success of Jobs and Apple; deadline struggles and technical impossibilities washed away under the famous withering glare of the iconic executive. Since Jobs had surrounded himself with brilliant and driven technicians, the strategies tended to work. Other business lessons abound in the book too, including the importance of aesthetics, and the genius of a simplified product suite.

As a point of contrast, I have no doubt that every single person reading this knows at least one person who also views the world more as they want it to be rather than how it is. I also have no doubts that these reality distorters are not as successful as Steve Jobs. Which brings us to the 2012 Cincinnati Reds.

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The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto gorped his 6th crankwood off the facade in right field and went 2-4. If we didn't have an unwritten rule against giving this award to opposing players, Ronny Cedeno (2-5, HR, 3 RBI) or David Wright (2 2B, on base 5 times) would be taking home that $15 gift certificate to Buffalo Mild Legs. BML: Come for the lack of distracting wall art, stay for gently-seasoned thigh meat!

Key Plays

• Latos and the Uncanny Dickey traded zeroes until the 4th inning, when Joey Votto hit a frack-job to right field that would have been a bonzai anywhere: Citi Field '11, the Polo Grounds or Ebbets Field.
• The Reds got three more in the 5th, thanks in part to wildness/knuckling from Dickey. With the league's best bullpen standing by, our team made the reasonable assumption that 4 runs were enough. Time to focus on prevention.
  
• In the top of the 5th, Andres Torres singled and David Wright walked. With two outs, Jay Bruce misjudged a line drive off the bat of Lucas Duda in the bottom of the inning that may have been catch-able.
  
• Latos' stuff looked good more often than not , but he couldn't hit enough of his spots. Three walks and a few too many pitches on the fat part of the place bounced him from the game after 5.0 IP. J.J. Hoover came in to limit the damage to a run off a sac-fly.
  
• A Todd Frazier double to lead off the 7th would be their last threat while the game was within reach.
• Aroldis Chapman entered, along with his 25.1 inning scoreless streak. He had yet to pitch in consecutive days and showed some fatigue. Wright led off the inning with a walk. Chapman may have been pitching around him, which is understandishable - especially with three lefties coming up. It's a move that wound up costing him the scoreless streak (though not the earned run streak). Duda dropped a weak blooper, then Drew Stubbs misplayed another blooper to load the bases. Chapman worked out of the jam with his customary two strikeouts, but not before Wright scored on a sac-fly.
• The wheels fell off and started a structure fire in the bottom of the eight. Logan Ondrusek's tab with math, the Universe and everything was long past due. At first, it looked like the Reds were getting flared to death when another potentially catchable ball landed between three fielders, but Ronny Cedeno's 3-run blast blew it up for good. Cue laugh track. Mets win, 9-4.

Source: FanGraphs

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