I'm curious to see whether or not anyone can read this. If you can that's awesome, you should say something. If you can't that's awesome too, I'll say something in your place. I never understood why there is a word threshold on FanPosts, wouldn't it make more sense to have a character threshold instead? Although I suppose someone could just post a ton of random characters to defeat that. At any rate, I'm almost to 75

Do you like to meet real live people from the internet?

If you're going to be in (or near) Central Ohio this Sunday night you should think about meeting up with some other friendly Reds fans in Columbus to celebrate the shared birthday of Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin, two of our fine city's greatest Americans. Aside from the immutably extraordinary James 'Buster' Douglas.

KA-POW! It's gonna be a good time. Hope you can join us.

It's been determined that Barley's Smokehouse (on 33 just outside of Grandview) will be our regular spot for meeting and greeting and eating and beating the National League later this spring and summer (and early fall) buuuut... Barley's Smokehouse is only open until 9pm on Sundays so for Abe's and Chuck's birthday celebration we'll probably want to raise our glasses elsewhere that evening.

Where? Well, let's debate that and see what evolves.

I was browsing and searching for any news or speculation about why Ryan Ludwick has not yet been officially added to the Reds' roster when I found this article at FoxSportsOhio.com. The article didn't provide any insight on what brilliant masterstroke Walt might be planning with the roster but it did provide this list of players that the Reds have sent packing since last season ended:

DEPARTURES: RHP Edinson Volquez, 1B Yonder Alonso, RHP Brad Boxberger and C Yasmani Grandal (traded to Padres); LHP Dontrelle Willis (free agent, signed with Phillies), C Ramon Hernandez (free agent, signed with Rockies), LHP Matt Maloney (waiver claim by Twins), LHP Travis Wood (traded to Cubs), OF Dave Sappelt (traded to Cubs), RHP Francisco Cordero (free agent, signed with Blue Jays), LHP Jeremy Horst (traded to Phillies).

OTHERS: RHP Levi Jared Burton(free agent, signed with Twins) and RHP Daryl Thompson (free agent, signed with Twins)

FREE AGENTS: SS Edgar Renteria.

"Whoa," I thought, "That's a lot of guys."

Personally, I've been pretty happy with the moves of this off-season. The Reds had a considerable number of good-to-great players but the level of collective talent on their entire roster was somehow kinda stuck on good. Now, we've been over this and over this and there's really no reason to go over this again: DId Walt make all the right moves in order to help the Reds win now?... Hey. Whatever. That's not what this FanPost is about.

As I looked at that list it occurred to me that even though I was okay (and sometimes even thrilled) with all of the moves that let all those guys go, there are almost certainly going to be two or three guys that have great seasons in 2012 and 2013. And that's what I wanted this FanPost to be about... (Well, that and all the movies in those '2012' and '2013' links ;)

So, who did the Reds let go/trade away that you think might now outperform their assumed career projections and make us think, "Daaaaaamn. That guy was a Red!"

(And by the way, here's the awesome scene that inspired that not-as-awesome animated GIF.)

Go Giants!

The big day is finally here and, once again, another city in the Midwest of comparable size to Cincinnati get to demonstrate to the masses that its just a hipper place to be. Its time for GABP to get an All Star game so The Queen City can promote itself as a grand city in the nation's eye. C'mon Bud!

Predictions? Mark em down before kickoff. I was pro-Giants all week but saw one stat this am that changed my mind. NYG only sacked the QB 2.8% of dropbacks in a 2TE set. Pats 27 Giants 23.

Whats the SB menu at your place today? I've downsized to NY white pizza, buffalo wings(medium), Caesar salad, and toasted gruyere baguettes.

Beer of choice? Great Lakes Sampler case, if i hit the bottle at all.

Sound off, RR Nation...

Continuing our comparison of the 2012 Reds to the 2012 Cardinals, let's see how each offense projects...

One important caveat...

The following comparisons don't account for playing time. Players like Allen Craig figure to be a major part of the Cardinals offense, despite not being represented here. Likewise, for the Reds, Ryan Hanigan, Ryan Ludwick, and other "role players" will likely see significant playing time. However, in the interests of simplicity, I used only the players I expect to get the majority of the playing time at their respective positions.

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I got this press release from FSO. Thought I'd pass it on...

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FOX Sports Ohio is ready to "March to Opening Day" with Reds Classic Rewinds & Reds Spring Training Coverage

Including a NEW 30-minute show every weeknight March 12-30 at 6:30pm

· CINCINNATI, OHIO - Cincinnati Reds fans won't have to wait until Opening Day to enjoy Cincinnati Reds baseball. In a "March to Opening Day," presented by Tri-State Chevy Dealers, FOX Sports Ohio is excited for the return of Reds Classic Rewinds throughout February. As we head into March, the network will continue to feature coverage of the Reds with the live production of a Reds Spring Training game on March 5thand an all-new nightly show, Reds Live - Spring Training 2012, beginning March 12th.

FOX Sports Ohio will televise four (4) Reds Classic Rewind games, including three games from the 2011 season as well as a game from 1999 in honor of Barry Larkin's recent election into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The Rewind series, hosted by Jim Day, will feature thrilling games such as Opening Day 2011 v. Milwaukee - the Reds notched a walk off win after Ramon Hernandez' slammed an opposite-field three-run homer. Other 2011 games include the game from July 15th when the Reds claimed a 6-5 win against St. Louis in front of a sellout crowd at Great American Ball Park, and the game from August 13th, the Reds-San Diego win that marked several Reds' season-highs and the largest winning margin of the season. Fans will also enjoy the Barry Larkin replay from May, 7 1999, in which Larkin went 3-for-4 with 2 RBI, including a walk-off double.

FOX Sports Ohio debuts the return of this entertaining series Monday, February 6th at 7pm, with a new game every Monday. The complete schedule is below.

As the Cincinnati Reds enter into their third Spring Training at Goodyear Ballpark in Goodyear, Arizona, FOX Sports Ohio will televise the Reds Spring Training game on March 5that 3pm EST in Goodyear when the Reds take on the Cleveland Indians. Thom Brennaman will call the game alongside Chris Welsh.

Finally, FOX Sports Ohio is excited to announce a NEW nightly show, Reds Live - Spring Training 2012, that will air Monday thru Friday from March 12th to the 30th. Each weeknight starting at 6:30pm, Reds fans will get 30 minutes of Reds Spring Training news, notes, interviews and features. Jim Day, Chris Welsh, and Jeff Piecoro will host the show from the Reds Spring Training complex with appearances by Jeff Brantley, Jim Kelch, and Thom Brennaman. Various features of the show will also be available on FOXSportsOhio.com.

Following each new show every evening, the show will replay later that night at 10pm or following a FOX Sports Ohio live event. The show will also replay the following morning at 8:30am.

So what will it take for them to make the playoffs?

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Looking at their history (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/) from 1995-2011, comparing runs scored differential vs. playoff appearnces (since 1995 was about the wildcard implementation)

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1995 +124 1st place lost NLCS 0-4

1996 + 5 3rd place

1997 -113 3rd place

1998 - 10 4th place

1999 +154 2nd place lost WC play-in game

2000 + 60 2nd place

2001 -115 5th place

2002 - 65 3rd place

2003 -188 5th place

2004 -157 4th place

2005 - 79 5th place

2006 - 52 3rd place

2007 - 70 5th place

2008 - 96 5th place

2009 - 50 4th place

2010 +105 1st place lost NLDS 0-3

2011 + 15 3rd place

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So it looks like they need to get about a +100 run differential for the season to make it into the playoffs.

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Last year they scored 735 and gave up 720.

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If you figure that Latos replaces Volquez/Willis, Volquez/WIllis gave up 114 runs. Latos gave up 82 runs. If you bump Latos 10% for the switch to GABP, that puts Latos at 90 runs. 90-114 is a reduction of 24 runs from last year.

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Cordero & Madson had nearly identical ERA's, so no change there. Marshall is a mid 2.50 ERA guy, He will push everybody down the chain, so assume he replaces a 4.50 ERA. Over 75 innings that means a reduction of 17 runs for the season.

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If you assume Cueto has his ERA rise a bit, becuase sustaining a 2.30 ERA for 2 seasons is hard, but if you assume Leake & Bailey get a little better those cancel out. If you assume Arroyo gets better and drops his ERA back to his 2008~2010 level, that's a reduction of another 15 runs.

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720-24-17-15=664

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Their runs scored probably don't change much from 2011. If anything it may get a little worse, so let's guess it drops from 735 to 730.

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So 730-664 = 66 run differential. Good enough, historically, for 2nd place. If the Poo Holes & Fielder defections from the NL Central weaken the competition, then 66 runs might be good enough to win the division. Maybe.

Saturday morning, the middle child (Tommy, 5) and I ate some toast and eggs, dropped some cake balls off at the church's bake sale and braved the little blast of wet snow to head north to Polaris Fashion Place. The Reds' Caravan was in town and we felt we needed to be there. Not sure why I felt I needed to be there but I told Tommy it was a "baseball party" and he was sure that he needed to be there so that was good enough for me.

We were a few minutes early and turnout was somewhat light so we were pretty confident that we'd be to able get around pretty easily and get what we wanted. The first thing we wanted was a picture with 2007 first round draft pick Devin Mesoraco. ..Check.

As you can see, the kid is an absolutely gorgeous hunk of classic American boy. Give him a Sharpie and hold him up so he doesn't get stepped on and.. Boom! Autographs. He got the Reds' top prospect to sign one side of a little foam baseball and then got the Reds' perfect-game lefty workhorse to sign the other. I'm not usually one to ooh and ahh at autographs but I think Tommy had the coolest little piece of memorabilia in the joint and it wasn't even 10am.

Soon, that one mascot (FIIK!?!) was done warming up the crowd and Thom was bellowing about the great sports fans in the capitol city Buckeyes and introducing everyone for the Q&A session. About this time we bumped into the lovely Mrs. Charlie Scrabbles. Tommy chatted her up (piano.. waffles.. Mario.. Fellas, y'know how it goes, right?) while Chuck and I tried to catch any tidbit Walt was offering about Chapman not going to the bullpen or the awesomely top secret plan to sign Oswalt Thursday afternoon.

It all went by pretty quickly and before we knew it Thom was looking around and bellowing for "Any last questions?..."

Young Thomas Wesley has a lot to learn about baseball on the field but he's seen me spend enough time analyzing the league at Red Reporter to know that being a Reds fan is not all brushes with fame and shmoozing pretty ladies so he shot Brennaman a confident glance and headed right up to the stage where he could be seen and heard clearly took a cue from me and let Thom pick him up like the 36-pound jelly-mold of cute that he is.

"Mr. Castellini," Thom bellowed, "this young Reds fan has a question and he's taking it right to the top...What's your name and what's your question, big guy?"

"Hi. Tommy. Umm... Can I have a balloon?"

It was a good day for at least two Reds fans in Central Ohio.

Howdy folks!

While we all know that projections are typically flawed, especially when it comes to pitchers, I found the following projections from Bill James to be quite surprising. According to James' projections, the Reds' rotation is just about as good as the Cards'....

The following projections can be found at FanGraphs. I’m using Bill James’ 2012 projections for this exercise. First, the projections, then some notes:

“ACE”

Johnny Cueto

• K/9 – 7.09; BB/9 – 2.82; ERA – 3.77; FIP – 4.02

Adam Wainwright

• K/9 – 7.49; BB/9 – 2.28; ERA – 3.27; FIP – 3.24

Differential (ERA): 0.5, Cardinals advantage

#2 Starter

Mat Latos

• K/9 – 8.79; BB/9 – 2.73; ERA – 2.99; FIP – 3.11

Chris Carpenter

• K/9 – 7.04; BB/9 – 2.17; ERA – 3.25; FIP – 3.25

Differential (ERA): 0.26, Reds advantage

(the rest... after the jump)

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