SI picks on our Dusty!

by TheC on Mar 14, 2008 1:32 PM EDT

How dare they.. though I hesitate to mention that most here will probably agree with the article. SI's John Donovan has a column today criticizing Dusty Baker for his plans to bat Brandon Phillips fourth this year.

The problem with Phillips as a cleanup hitter -- and this is, statistically speaking, hard to argue -- is that he's miserably miscast.

This is the take-home message. Donovan argues that Phillips had one of the lowest slugging percentages (.493) and on-base percentages (.352) for a clean-up hitter in baseball last year. Those damn new stats. I still don't quite have the perspective. I see that Phillips hit 30 home runs and drove in 94 runs last year, so why is it such a terrible idea?

Then, the point was made clear to me why that reasonably nice RBI number isn't such a great indicator.

You'd kind of expect that from that position in the lineup.... Phillips drove in somewhere between 13-14 percent of the runs he had a chance to knock in (not counting himself, with home runs), which ranks deep in the bottom half of all hitters in the league. (The best player in the league least year at converting on his RBI opportunities was Detroit's Magglio Ordonez, who drove in nearly 22 percent of the runners that were on base for him.)

See... now I'm starting to get it. Sometimes RBIs is a function of what the guys in front of you do too. Now, I know those of you already comfortable with your stathood will chuckle at my realizations. But it is amazing how getting beyond just the big 3 stats does open up an understanding of the game even more. And what is wrong with that?

But back to the big, bad SI bully picking on our Dusty. He goes on to tease Dusty about the role of walks in the line-up. And then gets Phillips to admit something that may diminish (or possibly enhance) his popularity in our conservative little town.

Phillips says.... "I'm a swinger."

That's fine.... just don't go running for governor.

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Comments

Nice post

Does anyone here have any thoughts on making an effort to not bat leftys back-to-back-to-back. It seems that at some point this year Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, and Votto could make sense in the middle of the lineup. The insistance on a lefty-righty alternating lineup seems to be why we've had people in spots that aren't ideal.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Mar 14, 2008 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

How about this?

Keppinger SS
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Bruce CF
Votto 1B
Ross C
Pitcher

Done! That's the way it should be.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 14, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I like keppinger leading off too.

I had

Keppinger
Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnacion
Votto
Valentin

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Mar 14, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

If Bruce doesn't lead off

I'd push him down in the mix to get a little experience under his belt:

Keppinger
Votto
Phillips
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnacion
Bruce
Valentin

Core dude - Dustbag's core is not the core that is the core.

by Madville on Mar 14, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

for those of us who are interested but math challenged, why is breaking up the handedness so important? I get the old wisdom about matchups and the supposed corresponding numbers, but is that really true? I mean if everyone hits OK against lefties then who gives a shit.

It's true because Doc says it is- You damn geeks!

by Pops Daniels on Mar 14, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the idea is

That in the later innings it makes it more difficult to bring in specialists.

For instance. If you have Griffey, Dunn, and Votto back-to-back-to-back, in late innings, the opposing team could bring in a lefty specialist to face all three. I think it has less to do with the matchup against the starter.

I, personally, don't like this logic. I think we should score as many runs as possible in innings 1-7 rather than worry about matchups in the 8th.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Mar 14, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

and what if Dusty honors the old tradition of taking out Dunn for defense in the late innings? Doesn't that negate a part of the idea?

It's true because Doc says it is- You damn geeks!

by Pops Daniels on Mar 14, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I like the logic

because the 8th and 9th innings matter more than whether or not a guy bats 5th or 6th. Batting 3 lefties in a row is making things easier for the other manager, especially when two of those lefties struggle against left-handers like Griffey and Votto do. I don't think you necessarily need to alternate L-R on every hitter, but I think a lineyo with 3 straight lefties is a weaker lineup because of how much easier it is to manage against it.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Did I do that?

I think my lineup above only has two lefties hitting consecutively at any time and that is only because I just surrendered to the notion that Griffey has to hit third. I like Dunn in the cleanup spot. It just seems like that is where he belongs.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 14, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

no, your lineup is fine

Though it's not the one I'd use. :)

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

lineyo

So, a weak lineup is know as a lineyo?

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Mar 14, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

And a weak spelling correction

is known as a "satyanaas."

Just bustin' your balls, man. Bustin' makes me feel good.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 14, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I had that coming. : /

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Mar 14, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yep

or I fat-fingered. But I'm all for starting a new word.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

you're a big fat-fingered phony

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 14, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

My thinking

Whether you bat Dunn-Jr.-EdE or Dunn-EdE-Jr. won't meaningfully affect the number of runs scored in the earlier innings. Really, as long as you don't do something like lead off with your worst three hitters, lineup construction doesn't make much of a difference in run scoring. But it can affect your opponent's use of its relievers. If you can force the other team to burn through its specialists and go deeper into its pen, you get to face progressively worse pitchers.

by ken on Mar 14, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Lineup construction doesn't matter?

Dusty thinks that's [poppycock].

by Brendanukkah on Mar 14, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Poppycock

that's what Dusty ends up with all over his fistbands, so I don't think he meant that it was a bad thing necessarily.

It's true because Doc says it is- You damn geeks!

by Pops Daniels on Mar 14, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

My 3-4-5-6

would be Dunn, EdE, Jr. and Phillips, assuming the likely opening day 1-2 of CF-Keppinger. I do like alternating for the late-inning matchups, though this is how I'd bat them anyways. EdE gets on base more than BP, slugs comparably, and drives in more runs (his prior year RBI% is also high, iirc). Phillips' speed isn't wasted with Votto and Ross hitting behind him.

I liked this Dusty quote: "I love stat guys, but statheads have gotten way, way out there." Good thing I'm more of a stat guy than a stathead.

Surprised to see this at the end of the article: A couple of other youngsters, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, both are expected to make the big-league roster. Bruce still has a very good chance of being the Opening Day center fielder, and Votto could start at first. Neither is having a great spring so far. But it is spring. If they think Bruce needs more development I understand though I don't agree. But why stick him on the MLB roster as a backup and start his service clock as a result? No quote here, so Donovan may be talking out of his ass.

by ken on Mar 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

Did your computer come up with that order?

Dusty thinks that will go over well.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

100110101000!!!!!!!

by ken on Mar 14, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

That's not even binary!

01001111010011010100011100100001001000000010000001010100011010000110000101110100
00100111011100110010000001110011011011110010000001101100011000010110110101100101
00100001

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

What Slyde meant to say was...

0100010101110010011100100110111101110010001110100010000001001101011000010110110001100110011011110111 0010011011010110010101100100001000000110001001101001011011100110000101110010011110010010111000100000 0101100101101111011101010111001000100000011000100110100101101110011000010111001001111001001000000110 0011011011110110010001100101001000000110110101110101011100110111010000100000011000100110010100100000 0110010001101001011101100110100101110011011010010110001001101100011001010010000001100010011110010010 00000011100000101110

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 14, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

pretty much

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

!!!!!111!!!1!!1!!!

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Mar 14, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

EdE

I could see EdE back in the 4 spot. I remember Narron starting him there last year, and he kinda bombed. Phillips took off in that spot, but I don't see him as an ideal 4-guy. I'd love to see EdE get another shot there during this season. He seems like the perfect guy.

by jamesp50014 on Mar 14, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

Dusty Sets the Record Straight on Fisting

Baker prefers the "fist" now.

"I tell you one thing: Whoever invented the fist, that's the best," he said. "To me, that's the most sanitary way to shake hands. I use the fist in crowds. That's ingenious, because if you're going to catch something off the back of your hand, you're supposed to catch it anyway."

by CamIam on Mar 14, 2008 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

I guess that explains the wristbands

by Brendanukkah on Mar 14, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm

wonder if he's ever lost a wristband while fisting. . .

by Brian B on Mar 14, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Fistbands

...tee-hee

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Mar 14, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

this is dangerously close

to a nickname that can stick

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 14, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I vote aye on Fistbands

by jch24 on Mar 14, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

aye

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

and so it is

http://redreporter.wikidot.com/fistbands

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 14, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, I Helped Find A Name For Dusty

YES!!! <dramatic fist pump>

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Mar 14, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Fistbands

You guys need to start talking to the Reds about cross promoting a promotional giveaway for 2009. This could be the next bobblehead.

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Mar 14, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Bobblefist? Fistlehead?

Bobbleband.

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Mar 14, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I can definitely picture the bobblefist.

For some reason...

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Mar 16, 2008 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

For the (wiki) record...

Brian B's comment, "wonder if he's ever lost a wristband while fisting. . .," did help inspire the whole fistband phenomenon.

In fact, I probably should have responded to his comment in the fist-place.

Either way, it gives this song a whole new meaning.

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Mar 14, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

duly noted

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 14, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

hence forth

that's what i'm calling him

suggestions, anyone?

by BobbyO on Mar 14, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Finally

A professionals opinion on fisting. I always like doing it to other people Im always hurt when someone gives the fist to me.

by The Crushinator on Mar 14, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Donovan's argument is weak

I'm not a big fan of BP batting 4th, but to say he was one of the worst as a 4th hitter last year is wrong. The NL average line out of the 4-spot was .280/.365/.492. Phillips's line was .306/.352/.493, pretty much league average for the spot, though some park adjustments should be in there somewhere. Hell, St. Louis posted a miserable .246/.320/.386 line as a team out of the 4-hole last year.

I don't like BP batting 4th because I think he tries too much to be a home run hitter, but trying to argue that he was one of the worst in the league last year is just untrue.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 14, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Rob Neyer on Reds Rotation

I posted this in another thread but I think it is dead. So here I go again.

"Apparently the talk of Reds camp is Johnny Cueto, who tossed four shutout innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. How well has he pitched this spring? From MLB.com:

Through three games, including one start, Cueto has a 1.00 ERA and eight strikeouts in nine innings with just one walk. He has continued to set the bar high in his competition for a rotation spot against Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt.

Just to be clear, there's more than one rotation spot up for grabs. The top two slots are set, with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. But after them the rotation is wide open. Or should be. In 37 career starts, Belisle's ERA is 5.11. In 179 career starts, Fogg's ERA is 4.93. In 42 career starts, Affeldt's ERA is 5.41.

Belisle's a holdover. Fogg and Affeldt were both signed as starters, presumably to take some pressure off the kids. But frankly, none of those guys has any business starting regularly for a good team, and the Reds have a chance to be pretty good.

Nobody talks about this, but in this sense the Reds are just like the Yankees: they'll go exactly as far as their talented young starters take them. Obviously, it's unfair to expect Cueto, Bailey and Volquez to start 30 games apiece and finish the season as Rookie of the Year candidates. But all three of the kids have more talent in their little fingers than those three veterans have in their whole pitching arms. They're why this year's Reds might be last year's Rockies."

Link
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob

Also, Belisle is getting lit up again today. Im really not so sure we should keep writing him into the rotation. Right now I have to believe that Cueto and Volquez are in the rotation. (Fay wrote in his blog that they moved the rotation around so Cueto and Volquez would get Harang and Arroyo starts.)

by CamIam on Mar 14, 2008 3:49 PM EDT reply actions