Nine Questions in Search of an Author

I, like many around here, am really questioning if he is.  But I also feel that Castellini gives him at least one more year.  The fact that we haven't been able to better compete in the Comedy Central is a real travesty.  It's only going to stay laughably bad for so long, so we'd better make hay while the sun shines.  Is it better to hope for the best with Krivsky under the "blind squirrel" theory, or should we change horses in midstream and hire a new GM (Jocketty?) who might take a couple years to implement a new plan?  And how many more mixed metaphors can I cram in this ol' onion bag?

After that, the only pressing move (I think) is to trade Hatteberg. Get something out of him, votto should make the team out of spring training and play almost every day (with someone else [Keppinger?] providing a soft platoon). Bailey is No. 3, open auditions for Nos. 4 and 5, and if Cueto is the best of the rest, he should make the team out of camp. I honestly dont think our bullpen is that bad if all the right guys are there -- McBeth, Cooter, Burton, Bray, Weathers then a couple at take your pick. All those guys have shown shutdown stuff at times, but most of them (all but weathers) just havent reached their peaks yet.

One other question that needs to be addressed, though, is what to do at short. Even if Kepp immediately falls back to earth, is it wise to hold onto sea bass knowing his defense has taken a sharp decline and his offense is spotty? Especially when we have several young shortstop prospects in the pipeline. I really like gonzalez, but moving him could be the best option in the offseason.

Ultimately, I say go youth next year, let all our best guys take their lumps and hope to god for a sophomore splash.

If they do think that 2008 is a realistic chance to compete, then it's time for some tough decisions.  If Mike Stanton has lost it, dump him.  If Ryan Freel has lost it, dump him.  Keep Dunn.  Etc..

What I don't want to see is an in between team like we had this year, full of spare parts and excess spending while young players are stuck in the minors biding their time.  Put the best team on the field or make sure everyone is ready to make a solid run in 2009.

1. It won't be Mackanin.  I think Castellini has a jones for a big "name" manager.  He wanted to bring in Pinella, and the names of Dusty Baker, Bob Brenly, and Tony LaRussa have floated up throughout the season.  I think getting a name would symbolize in Castellini's mind his commitment to winning.  For my money, Johnny Narron should be placed in a rocking chair in front of Great American Ball Park, holding a shotgun, and if Brenly or Baker show their face, he needs to tell them to just keep moving on.  I'd be alright with LaRussa.  I don't like him, but I have the most faith in his managerial abilities from that group.  He also might be able to bend Castellini's ear into prying open the coffers for a key free-agent pickup (a la McGwire, Rolen, and Edmonds).  In midseason, it looked like LaRussa was a sure thing to bail on St. Louis.  Now he's got the Cardinals back in the hunt, so who knows?  He may still be keen to leave, but now he's a more desirable commodity, and his pricetag will go up.  My money is still on him to be helming the Redlegs next year.
2. Adam should stay.  No question.  They should definitely pick up his option, and probably look towards extending him.  At the very least, play him for the first half of the season and then trade him when his no-trade clause is partially voided.  I believe he'll be back.  He's played too well this year for Castellini and Krivsky to be swayed by the braying masses.  Krivsky might be feeling a little gunshy from the Trade still, but I have to believe that management feels like it can get more for Dunn in a trade at the deadline than whatever they would pickup in the draft by letting him walk.  Remember, these are men that enjoy "proven" commodoties.  So yes, Dunn will be back next year, and it's my fervent hope that he'll be in left field for years to come.
3. Keppinger's earned every right to stay with the club.  But what's his role?  I like him best as a bench player, but I would give him all of Spring Training to earn a starting position.  His most natural position (or the easiest for him to take in the infield) is third base.  I can definitely see Krivsky dealing EdE, which would be okay if I wasn't so sure that he'd also be fleeced when he does so.  The other option has been to put him in left field, but this is bad for so many reasons (they shouldn't move Dunn, Bruce should be ahead of him on the outfield depth chart, I actually might prefer Kepp to NoHo though).  I want to see this team make an honest commitment to EdE, but I see a spring training battle between him and Kepp.
4. Bailey is one of the answers.  The free agent class is so weak that it shouldn't be any of them (although I wouldn't mind seeing Lohse back as a back of the rotation starter).  Let's hope Krivsky realizes this and doesn't try to sign a Meche or Suppan type deal.  I would like to see Ramirez given a shot, preferably with a manager who won't abuse him.  (Arroyo needs to not be abused either.  Let's ditch the rubber arm label once and for all.)  Dumatrait has scared me.  I'm interested in what Cueto can do, and want him to get a good long look in spring training.  There's the possibility that a trade happens and we get a starter there (I have no confidence that any trade will work out beneficially for us), but I'd like to see the team use their own guys.  A rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, and possibly Livingston (over Belisle and Dumatrait) to be the fifth starter.  Let Bailey and Cueto take their lumps.  Ultimately, we'd be better served with them than anybody else.  And if Krivsky wants to bring in a cheap free agent or waiver pickup (like Lohse) as the 5th starter, that would be okay.
5. I think they'll stick with Weathers, at least initially, but Burton and Bray certainly deserve looks in spring training.  People will want a "name" closer as well, but there's not one available, and it would be a stupid pickup anyway.
6. I like Coutlangus as the lefty specialist, and whoever doesn't win the closer role between Burton and Bray (or either, since I still think Weathers will be the closer).  Honestly, as long as Wayne doesn't bring any more ancient mariners (Eddie), I'll be happy letting our young arms go to work.  Also, bring up Carlos Guevara.  Now.  Stanton, Guardado, and Santos should not see work with us again, and Coffey and Majewski should maybe be given a chance in the spring, since they're not 40, but they're hanging on by the slimmest of threads.  I will shed no tears if they're shown the door.
7. Hatteberg and Votto.  The idea of Dunn at first is still intriguing, but probably one of those "works in theory" ideas.
8. I play Jay over NoHo and Freel.  I really want Griffey to hit his 600th homer this year so the team can make an earnest effort at moving him in the offseason (send him back to Seattle?).  I still like Dunn, Griffey, and Hamilton as the starting three, but there's enough injuries in there for Bruce to play well.  Bruce should definitely take Hopper's roster spot.
9.  Something in the $85 million range would be nice, since it'll be at least that much to meaningfully upgrade the team from the outside.

1. Ken Macha
   
2. STAY
   
3. If you're expecting a decent utility guy who will give you a .280/.340/.450 line playing decent defense at 3 positions, then Yes.  If you're expecting a 3B starter who's a .350 hitter despite little power and speed, then No.
   
4. Bailey, Livingston, Lizard.  I'm not committing free agent dollars to a back-of-the-rotation guy again.
   
5. Burton
   
6. Bray from the left side, and either Salmon or McBeth from the right
   
7. Votto
   
8. The Boss starts in AAA, and is called up to start if Griff or Hobbs gets hurt.  Should get 300AB's that way, and doesn't burn a year of service time.
   
9. If they have a good offseason and can deal Freel, Stanton and Weathers without taking on any salary, it should be around $55 million.

Will Adam stay or go? Go

Is Keppinger for real? No

Who are Nos. 3, 4, and 5? Bailey, Cueto and Belisle

Who's the closer? Auditions open

Who sets it up? Weathers

Who's on first? Votto

Do you play Jay? Yes in lieu of Dunn

What's the payroll? (I'm not sure what we can say about this)120 million. Oh wait, that is our whatif payroll. Whatever it is increase it 10% (minimum)

2. Will Adam stay or go? I think he'll stay but don't count on Griffey for next year
   
3. Is Keppinger for real? Yes unless he's David Ross'cousin
   
4. #3 Livingston #4 Bailey # Elizardo
   

What fun, maybe this exercise is what Sweaterpants and the Boss do for fun over the winter, except they are not as smart about the Reds as we.