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Homer Still Not Ready

Today's line:
Louisville
Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Bailey, H (W, 5-1) 7.0 5 1 1 0 9 0 1.89

Unbelievable:  It took the kid 101 pitches to get through 7 innings. It's outings like this that are going to keep this kid away from Cincinnati...  Reds are right.  He's not ready... Geez.  What does this kid have to do to get a call up?  Surely, his next start is as a Red, isn't it?  Free Homer.  Free Homer.  Free Homer.

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we won't see homer before
the first homestand after the all star break in July.

by Caleb on May 28, 2007 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

homer pool
Didn't we do a "When will Homer make his MLB debut?" pool before the season? Am I imagining this?

by greg456 on May 28, 2007 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

homer
will give up barry bonds' 756th home run in the third inning of the giants-reds game on july 5. ashnarronlovechild
"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 28, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is only acceptable if I catch
the ball and sell it for $1,000,000,000,000,000 dollars. Seriously, he better not hit that homer in Cincinnati.
"Think lucky!" - Jerry Narron's philosophy on baseball

by Ash on May 28, 2007 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's a quadrillion dollars
id be fine with it. seriously, i dont really have a probelm with bonds. this has been said, but in 30 years no one will care that he did steroids. the only reason i kinda have beef with him is because so many other people are put off by steroids now that it makes the game look bad. but from an ideological standpoint, bonds doesnt bother me at all.
"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 28, 2007 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

MLB.com milestone tracker
has him on pace to hit it on 7/16 in Chicago. That works for me.
"Think lucky!" - Jerry Narron's philosophy on baseball

by Ash on May 28, 2007 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he hits in cincy
and whoever gets it, Sell the damn ball and buy out sweaterpant's contract out
"Well Marty, he strikes out on the same pitches but a little differently now."-Bob Boone when asked why Dunn was hitting lead-off

by Zach K on May 29, 2007 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

no
i want it to be on july 3, because i'll be at that game!

by Daedalus on May 29, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

No better Time than next week to
Bring Homer up to the big club. He's smart and composed, if he fails so what. He will go down and work it out. Hundreds of players have done this successfully why not Homer?

He's got the stuff to succeed, the only ones worried about his failure are Wayne and Coaach Narron.

Farewell coach Narron and Bucky too!

by Madville on May 28, 2007 11:05 PM EDT reply actions  

btw
homer didnt let in a run until coffey allowed one of his inherited runners.
"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 28, 2007 11:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Awesome outing
The kid has got to be just about ready. Earlier in the year, even when he had a great ERA, there were questions about his strikeout and walk rates. In his last three starts, he's got 22 strikeouts and 6 walks in 18 innings. He got 9 groundouts to 3 flyouts today, and has a solid GO/AO ratio for the season, plus only two homers allowed in 52.1 innings. In 9 starts this year, he has only given up more than one run twice, an outing where he gave up 2 runs and an outing where he gave up 3. He's gone at least 5 innings in every outing.

Wayne's pretty much out of reasons not to give him a chance at this point. He may struggle at times, but he doesn't have much more to show in the minors.

by Geki on May 29, 2007 12:24 AM EDT reply actions  

i think they will be looking at the future
when they bring him up. It won't be an issue of if he is ready or not. The issue is the amount of service days that count toward arbitration eligibilty. I think if he is in the "bigs" more than 86 days it counts as a full season. I'm not exactly sure of the number but that one sticks out for some reason. And if it is 86 days then it falls some time in late July. (I think)

by Caleb on May 29, 2007 9:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Super 2 guys
Remember, there are 2+ guys as well.  The top 1/6th  ( I think) of the guys with between 2 and 3 years of service also get arbitration!  So its best to wait even beyond the actual cutoff point.

by TheDude @ Red Reporter on May 29, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bring him up
what i think about in this situation is Cole Hamels, when he was brought up he struggled a bit but now hes dominating this year. Baliey needs a year like this one where wins won't be the end all be all for him; get him experience so we can hope that 08 is our year.

by OURob on May 29, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

One thing
I know this isn't much of a difference, but Hamels was 22 when he was brought up.  It's only one year (actually a year and a half), but as fragile as young pitchers can be, it might be a huge difference for all we know.

I can kind of see why Krivsky might be gun shy.  He is concerned about Homer for the long term and he doesn't want to risk that long term success just to fix an immediate problem.  Here is the list of pitchers in the last 10 years that have made 20 or more starts in a season by their age 21 season:
Jeff D'Amico
Kerry Wood
Javier Vazquez
Sidney Ponson
Rick Ankiel
C.C. Sabathia
Miguel Ascencio
Oliver Perez
Jerremy Bonderman
Dontrelle Willis
Jerome Williams
Zack Greinke
Scott Kazmir
Felix Hernandez
Matt Cain

I'd consider Vazquez (thru age 26 before going to the Yankees) a success.  Also Sabathia, Bonderman, Willis, and Kazmir.  Hernandez and Cain are too recent still to categorize.  The rest of that group is shaky with injuries, head cases, and flameouts.  Right now, we have no reason to believe that Homer won't be another Kazmir or Bonderman, and we never know what the future will hold for a pitcher.  But if you are the ultimate decision maker, wouldn't this list make you a little cautious of rushing a pitcher?


2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on May 29, 2007 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

I completely understand those reservations
and actually earlier in the year I completely agreed. This might be myself looking for another reason to watch, I think if sweaterpants were smart they would clearly put Homer on strick inning count for the year becasue unless there is some miracle and now that the brew crew is crashing that might still be a posiblity but I don't think we're going to be having too many meaningful games later this year so maybe you shut Homer down after he gets that inning count. I just liked the way the Phills handled Cole even after all his arm problems in the minors.

by OURob on May 29, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's good stuff, Slyde..
but is it possible that if you were to classify every pitcher on that list as "success, "head case" or "flame-out" the proportion might be similar to that of any list of pitchers not just "phenoms who may have been rushed to the show?"

I dunno. Just saying.

The Reds are 6-20 since we danced around the Maypole at 13-13. If Jerry is not fired before Houston I will kill my Red Reporter self in Tuesday's game thread.

by Alan @ Red Reporter on May 29, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

The difference
Pitchers brought up this early are usually, at the very least, hyped as future number ones.  Many have dominated at some level in order to justify being brought up that early.  These guys have to be considered a little differently in that they didn't have to be brought up early, though I guess it is always unclear as to what "early" means.

You are probably right though.  The spread is likely to be similar across most age groups, but the meaning of failure is different.  And I don't know that bringing up Perez early led to his downfall.  The list is so small that I don't think we could ever gather enough evidence to say whether or not it's a good or bad idea.  But when you are dealing with a player that could potentially change your franchise, it can be a very scary decision to make.


2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on May 29, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

A further investigation
I changed my criteria and just looked at pitchers who made 20 starts in their rookie season.  That left nine pitchers in the 21 and under category:
20-year old
C.C. Sabathia
Jeremy Bonderman
Zack Greinke

21-year old
Kerry Wood
Sidney Ponson
Javier Vazquez
Miguel Ascencio
Jerome Williams
Dontrelle Willis

I looked at Kerry Wood's numbers, and I'd have to say that we should probably consider him a success, even though he broke down.  The injuries didn't start to take their toll until age 27, and a lot of that was because he was seriously abused on a game by game basis.  He was still a very good pitcher, and I should hope that the Reds would not abuse Bailey like the Cubs abused Wood.

So, I think you could 5 of the 9 a success, with Greinke still having a slight chance to make a career.  That's probably a lot higher than we would expect given the percentages.

There were 18 pitchers in my report that I linked that made 20 starts in a rookie season at the age of 22.  Without looking at them in great detail, I probably wouldn't consider more than 5 of those guys to be successes.  Sooooo, maybe the fear of bringing a guy up too early is unnecessary.

Obviously this is NOT scientific.  I've done nothing to look at how pitchers pitched in the minors.  I've done nothing to account for pitchers who pitched a couple of times one year before being brought up the next year for 20+ starts.  I just assumed that if Homer were brought up now, he'd probably get about 20-23 starts, so I wanted to see how pitchers in recent history have compared with that kind of usage.

And really, my ultimate point is that no matter what Krivsky does with Homer, the window will always be open for second guessing.  There is only one best case scenario, but there are hundreds of ways for it to fail, even if only slightly.  It may be an easy decision for all of us, but it can't be an easy one for the ultimate decider.


2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on May 29, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am the ultimate decider

Sorry Alan, couldnt wait.

"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 29, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember last year
Homer having a inning count in the minors to ensure that he built his arm strength up but did did hurt himself, does anyone know what that was at? Also what I'm looking at in this situation is that Homer needs to be on a inning count for the year to ensure that he makes the progress we want, but does it matter at this point if its with the Bats or the Reds clearly AAA isn't going to demand him to adjust his pitches so hes more than a fireballer with a decent curve and change. I think brining him up ala Cole Hamles could do this. But I'm still weary about this becasue I think once people (sweaterpants) get a taste the whole keeping him on an inning count on the year would be tossed out the window and could lead to Greinke type of situation rather than a Willis in the long term. Just a random thought to add to this debate

by OURob on May 29, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

You have to look at more than age here.
You need to look at context with the player. I don't know that any of the players you listed other than Wood and maybe Sabathia were anywhere near as good prospects as Homer is right now. Let's take a look at where they were on BA's top 100 list before they came up and what they did when they got there, as well as any other possible factors to look at.

Kerry Wood: 4th on BA's 1998 list, was relatively dominant when healthy and injuries were probably more a result of Dusty Baker being an incompetent assclown and a curve that put too much stress on the arm than his age when he came up. Normal minor league progression with results nowhere near as good as Homer's have been. Still has a career 116 ERA+ and 1300 strikeouts over 1100 innings. He's a success (though a disappointment at the same time).

Jerome Williams: 50th on BA's 2003 list, statistically solid early career before the Giants gave up on him because he wasn't turning into an ace like they had hoped. Put up a 3.30 ERA as a rookie and followed that up with a solid 4.24 ERA campaign. He had three awful starts to begin the next year with the Giants and was ultimately sent to the Cubs in a trade, where he made 18 starts for them in 2005 to the tune of a 3.91 ERA. Has been awful the last two years in about 40 innings total of work for the Cubs and Nationals. Normal minor league progression, had more than shown he was ready before making appearance at 21. You can't call him a success, but expectations were never sky-high from anyone other than the Giants, and it'd be tough to argue that he wasn't mistreated by that organization given what he did. Failure, but doesn't seem like it was a result of his age.

Sidney Ponson: 78th on BA's 1998 list, put together 6 years around league average or better for the Orioles and Giants before getting a big money contract and becoming a laughingstock. Went from rookie ball to 13 bad AA starts to 1 good AAA start to the majors in the span of about a year. Given that he never made it higher than 78th on the list to begin with, I can't call him a failure.

Dontrelle Willis: 43rd on BA's 2003 list, won rookie of the year in 2003 and was second in Cy Young voting in 2005. Followed up those campaigns with worse years, albeit years that would still be considered pretty solid out of most players. Made the jump from 6 AA starts to the majors. Definite success.

Jeremy Bonderman: 20th on BA's 2003 list, came up and lost 19 games as a rookie for the awful 2003 Tigers team. Has improved every year he's been in the league and still has time to grow. Not really comparable to Homer because he only had 27 career starts in the minors, with the highest level being hi-A ball. Not the ideal way to handle a prospect, but it hasn't seemed to hurt him too much. Success.

CC Sabathia: 7th on BA's 2001 list, went 17-5 with a 4.39 ERA as a rookie. Has had some nagging injuries over the years, but has never thrown less than 28 starts and has never had an ERA+ lower than 102. Made the jump from AA to the majors, skipping AAA altogether. Like Bonderman, looks to really be progressing in the past couple of years to something resembling an ace. Success.

Miguel Asencio: Never on the list. Has been a failure, but with only 30 career starts and a 100 ERA+ in those starts, it was more a result of never getting another chance due to Tommy John surgery. Made the jump from hi-A straight to the majors. Not a very good way to handle a prospect, and not comparable to Homer. Then again, they wouldn't be the Royals if they weren't ruining relatively talented young players. Failure, but expectations were never terribly high to begin with.

Zack Greinke: 14th on BA's 2004 list, great rookie year with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Equally bad sophomore year with a 5.80 ERA, before missing most of last year dealing with anxiety problems. Has had the talent, hasn't had the make-up to be a major leaguer. Was relatively dominating in 29 combined starts between A+, AA, and AAA in 2003 and early 2004 at age 20. There's still plenty of hope with him at age 23, but right now he can't be called a success. Failure, make-up problems possibly a result of being called up too early and lacking the maturity to handle major leagues.

Javier Vazquez: 83rd on BA's 1998 list, has carved out a very, very solid career as a reliable innings eater with the ability to put up a better than league average ERA. Made the jump from just 6 AA starts to the majors. Did struggle in his first two years in the league at a young age. Definite success.

It's tough to deny that most of the players on this list were rushed. Wood, Williams, and Greinke were the only ones who recieved anything more than 1 start in AAA, and none of them pitched nearly as well as Homer has so far this year. Nobody on the list was ever as Homer has been over the past two years, or even all that comparable to him. Putting Homer in the majors wouldn't be rushing him, it would be challenging him, and every start he makes just shows that more and more.

by Geki on May 29, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for going into more detail
I fully admit that my look was superficial.  I didn't have time to look at the detail, so I appreciate that you did.

Really, the only name that concerns me on either list that I posted is Oliver Perez.  He was moved around a lot more in the minors than Homer, who has had about as clean of a progression as you can hope, but he always was a big K guy that had a little trouble with the strike zone.  After getting his feet wet a couple of years with the Padres and then Pirates, he was pretty damn good at age 22.  I know they aren't precise comparisons, but after 2004, I thought Perez was going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.  In my mind, he and Greinke are the only two where being rushed to the Majors really may have hurt their development.

I agree that bringing Bailey up helps to keep him challenged, especially if the Reds can do it without setting the expectations that his job is to save the season.  I fully expect him to be up within the next month, and I believe that it will be good for him to be able get regular work in at the Major League level before next season when the Reds go to the playoffs. :)


2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on May 29, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perez
I don't know what his problem was. He just all of a sudden lost like 5 MPH off of his fastball and his improved control went to hell. That said, whatever his deal was, the Mets sure look like they've fixed it. He's got a 2.54 ERA and 1.06 ERA this year with very good strikeout and walk rates. Pretty nifty under the radar pick-up for them, and a total steal if he keeps it up.

by Geki on May 29, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep
And all they gave up was Xavier Nady.  If only the Reds had had a right fielder comparable to Nady that they could have traded for a starting pitcher and a reliever...

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on May 29, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do Not.
Get me started on this.
"That which is repeated will happen a third time."

by Paul Householder on May 29, 2007 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't believe i am saying this
After reading a long NY Times article about Kerry Wood, I want the Reds to leave Bailey in AAA until September.  Give him a little work in September, and have him start next season in Cincinnati.  Give him 400 minor league innings before he reaches the majors.  Try to elavate his minor league pitch count to 110 or so some nights, so he can handle the work load of a big league pitcher.  Narron uses and abuses his pitchers when they pitch well.  See Harang and Arroyo's pitch counts.   So try to build up more arm strength before he is in the big leagues.

by justin0070000 on Jun 2, 2007 2:17 PM EDT reply actions  

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