Homer Still Not Ready
Today's line:
Louisville
Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Bailey, H (W, 5-1) 7.0 5 1 1 0 9 0 1.89
Unbelievable: It took the kid 101 pitches to get through 7 innings. It's outings like this that are going to keep this kid away from Cincinnati... Reds are right. He's not ready... Geez. What does this kid have to do to get a call up? Surely, his next start is as a Red, isn't it? Free Homer. Free Homer. Free Homer.
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homer pool
homer
That is only acceptable if I catch
that's a quadrillion dollars
MLB.com milestone tracker
If he hits in cincy
No better Time than next week to
He's got the stuff to succeed, the only ones worried about his failure are Wayne and Coaach Narron.
btw
Awesome outing
Wayne's pretty much out of reasons not to give him a chance at this point. He may struggle at times, but he doesn't have much more to show in the minors.
i think they will be looking at the future
Super 2 guys
by TheDude @ Red Reporter on May 29, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Bring him up
One thing
I can kind of see why Krivsky might be gun shy. He is concerned about Homer for the long term and he doesn't want to risk that long term success just to fix an immediate problem. Here is the list of pitchers in the last 10 years that have made 20 or more starts in a season by their age 21 season:
Jeff D'Amico
Kerry Wood
Javier Vazquez
Sidney Ponson
Rick Ankiel
C.C. Sabathia
Miguel Ascencio
Oliver Perez
Jerremy Bonderman
Dontrelle Willis
Jerome Williams
Zack Greinke
Scott Kazmir
Felix Hernandez
Matt Cain
I'd consider Vazquez (thru age 26 before going to the Yankees) a success. Also Sabathia, Bonderman, Willis, and Kazmir. Hernandez and Cain are too recent still to categorize. The rest of that group is shaky with injuries, head cases, and flameouts. Right now, we have no reason to believe that Homer won't be another Kazmir or Bonderman, and we never know what the future will hold for a pitcher. But if you are the ultimate decision maker, wouldn't this list make you a little cautious of rushing a pitcher?

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green
I completely understand those reservations
That's good stuff, Slyde..
I dunno. Just saying.
by Alan @ Red Reporter on May 29, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference
You are probably right though. The spread is likely to be similar across most age groups, but the meaning of failure is different. And I don't know that bringing up Perez early led to his downfall. The list is so small that I don't think we could ever gather enough evidence to say whether or not it's a good or bad idea. But when you are dealing with a player that could potentially change your franchise, it can be a very scary decision to make.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green
A further investigation
20-year old
C.C. Sabathia
Jeremy Bonderman
Zack Greinke
21-year old
Kerry Wood
Sidney Ponson
Javier Vazquez
Miguel Ascencio
Jerome Williams
Dontrelle Willis
I looked at Kerry Wood's numbers, and I'd have to say that we should probably consider him a success, even though he broke down. The injuries didn't start to take their toll until age 27, and a lot of that was because he was seriously abused on a game by game basis. He was still a very good pitcher, and I should hope that the Reds would not abuse Bailey like the Cubs abused Wood.
So, I think you could 5 of the 9 a success, with Greinke still having a slight chance to make a career. That's probably a lot higher than we would expect given the percentages.
There were 18 pitchers in my report that I linked that made 20 starts in a rookie season at the age of 22. Without looking at them in great detail, I probably wouldn't consider more than 5 of those guys to be successes. Sooooo, maybe the fear of bringing a guy up too early is unnecessary.
Obviously this is NOT scientific. I've done nothing to look at how pitchers pitched in the minors. I've done nothing to account for pitchers who pitched a couple of times one year before being brought up the next year for 20+ starts. I just assumed that if Homer were brought up now, he'd probably get about 20-23 starts, so I wanted to see how pitchers in recent history have compared with that kind of usage.
And really, my ultimate point is that no matter what Krivsky does with Homer, the window will always be open for second guessing. There is only one best case scenario, but there are hundreds of ways for it to fail, even if only slightly. It may be an easy decision for all of us, but it can't be an easy one for the ultimate decider.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green
I remember last year
You have to look at more than age here.
Kerry Wood: 4th on BA's 1998 list, was relatively dominant when healthy and injuries were probably more a result of Dusty Baker being an incompetent assclown and a curve that put too much stress on the arm than his age when he came up. Normal minor league progression with results nowhere near as good as Homer's have been. Still has a career 116 ERA+ and 1300 strikeouts over 1100 innings. He's a success (though a disappointment at the same time).
Jerome Williams: 50th on BA's 2003 list, statistically solid early career before the Giants gave up on him because he wasn't turning into an ace like they had hoped. Put up a 3.30 ERA as a rookie and followed that up with a solid 4.24 ERA campaign. He had three awful starts to begin the next year with the Giants and was ultimately sent to the Cubs in a trade, where he made 18 starts for them in 2005 to the tune of a 3.91 ERA. Has been awful the last two years in about 40 innings total of work for the Cubs and Nationals. Normal minor league progression, had more than shown he was ready before making appearance at 21. You can't call him a success, but expectations were never sky-high from anyone other than the Giants, and it'd be tough to argue that he wasn't mistreated by that organization given what he did. Failure, but doesn't seem like it was a result of his age.
Sidney Ponson: 78th on BA's 1998 list, put together 6 years around league average or better for the Orioles and Giants before getting a big money contract and becoming a laughingstock. Went from rookie ball to 13 bad AA starts to 1 good AAA start to the majors in the span of about a year. Given that he never made it higher than 78th on the list to begin with, I can't call him a failure.
Dontrelle Willis: 43rd on BA's 2003 list, won rookie of the year in 2003 and was second in Cy Young voting in 2005. Followed up those campaigns with worse years, albeit years that would still be considered pretty solid out of most players. Made the jump from 6 AA starts to the majors. Definite success.
Jeremy Bonderman: 20th on BA's 2003 list, came up and lost 19 games as a rookie for the awful 2003 Tigers team. Has improved every year he's been in the league and still has time to grow. Not really comparable to Homer because he only had 27 career starts in the minors, with the highest level being hi-A ball. Not the ideal way to handle a prospect, but it hasn't seemed to hurt him too much. Success.
CC Sabathia: 7th on BA's 2001 list, went 17-5 with a 4.39 ERA as a rookie. Has had some nagging injuries over the years, but has never thrown less than 28 starts and has never had an ERA+ lower than 102. Made the jump from AA to the majors, skipping AAA altogether. Like Bonderman, looks to really be progressing in the past couple of years to something resembling an ace. Success.
Miguel Asencio: Never on the list. Has been a failure, but with only 30 career starts and a 100 ERA+ in those starts, it was more a result of never getting another chance due to Tommy John surgery. Made the jump from hi-A straight to the majors. Not a very good way to handle a prospect, and not comparable to Homer. Then again, they wouldn't be the Royals if they weren't ruining relatively talented young players. Failure, but expectations were never terribly high to begin with.
Zack Greinke: 14th on BA's 2004 list, great rookie year with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Equally bad sophomore year with a 5.80 ERA, before missing most of last year dealing with anxiety problems. Has had the talent, hasn't had the make-up to be a major leaguer. Was relatively dominating in 29 combined starts between A+, AA, and AAA in 2003 and early 2004 at age 20. There's still plenty of hope with him at age 23, but right now he can't be called a success. Failure, make-up problems possibly a result of being called up too early and lacking the maturity to handle major leagues.
Javier Vazquez: 83rd on BA's 1998 list, has carved out a very, very solid career as a reliable innings eater with the ability to put up a better than league average ERA. Made the jump from just 6 AA starts to the majors. Did struggle in his first two years in the league at a young age. Definite success.
It's tough to deny that most of the players on this list were rushed. Wood, Williams, and Greinke were the only ones who recieved anything more than 1 start in AAA, and none of them pitched nearly as well as Homer has so far this year. Nobody on the list was ever as Homer has been over the past two years, or even all that comparable to him. Putting Homer in the majors wouldn't be rushing him, it would be challenging him, and every start he makes just shows that more and more.
Thanks for going into more detail
Really, the only name that concerns me on either list that I posted is Oliver Perez. He was moved around a lot more in the minors than Homer, who has had about as clean of a progression as you can hope, but he always was a big K guy that had a little trouble with the strike zone. After getting his feet wet a couple of years with the Padres and then Pirates, he was pretty damn good at age 22. I know they aren't precise comparisons, but after 2004, I thought Perez was going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time. In my mind, he and Greinke are the only two where being rushed to the Majors really may have hurt their development.
I agree that bringing Bailey up helps to keep him challenged, especially if the Reds can do it without setting the expectations that his job is to save the season. I fully expect him to be up within the next month, and I believe that it will be good for him to be able get regular work in at the Major League level before next season when the Reds go to the playoffs. :)

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green
Perez
Yep

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green
Do Not.
by Paul Householder on May 29, 2007 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
How Many?
by obc on May 29, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

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