Vote Rock to the HOF

by obc2 on Dec 29, 2007 1:31 PM EST

Growing up my favorite non-Red ballplayer was Tim Raines. I have seen polarizing reports on whether Raines was/is a HOF'er, or not. IMO its a no-brainer, first ballot worthy selection. As much as I'd like to write a diary supporting Rock, Jay Jaffe has already done so.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7007

Im sure some of you have some thoughts or opinions on the '08 HOF candidates.

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HOF

I was wondering where people here fall on the Blyleven/Jack Morris question (although I shouldn't ask. I like you folk and wouldn't want that to change). Bert led by 58 votes last year, but his support dropped from the previous year. The Morris campaign appears to be peaking.

And yeah, the Rock should be in. Unfortunately he probably won't be inducted this year, but if he can land around 50% of the vote he'll be well positioned.

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 6:56 PM EST 0 recs

Rock

Hall of Very Good

Byleven = no

Morris = yes

by bobestes on Dec 29, 2007 7:15 PM EST 0 recs

roar

I'm still mad about Ozzie Smith making the HOF

...but he did backflips!

by bobestes on Dec 29, 2007 7:36 PM EST up 0 recs

Could you elaborate?

I'm all for a debate, but when you give "yes" and "no" with no reasons, there's not much to talk about.

For me, Rock is a slam dunk. 5 seasons with an OBP over .400, 5 more over .390, 5th all time in stolen bases, best SB% in Major League history. He's the absolute prototype for a leadoff hitter, and even provided a little pop. I'd go so far as to say he's the best leadoff hitter ever who didn't constantly refer to himself in the 3rd person. I'm not sure what else you want out of him.

Blyleven's a no-doubter for me, too. 5th all-time in strikeouts, 4th in Shutouts since WWII, had a fantastic peak (better than anything Morris did), and a long productive career. His career ERA was more than a half run better than Morris. Morris's best season ERA was 3.05. Blyleven was better than that EIGHT STRAIGHT SEASONS from 1971-1978. The best argument Morris has going for him is postseason pitching, and Blyleven destroys him there, too. Morris was 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA in the postseason, while Blyleven was 5-1, 2.47. That one's not even close in my mind. Blyleven's in, Morris is out.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 29, 2007 7:54 PM EST up 0 recs

The rest of my ballot...

Gossage
Trammell
McGwire

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 29, 2007 7:59 PM EST up 0 recs

I'll add more

Raines was arguably the best player in the NL in 85, 86 and 87. It's strange that writers like Jon Heyman label him a "compiler" as if he's a long career guy. He had a tremendous peak.

He was arguably the greatest basestealer of all time. You have to account for CS. If he were more of a free swinger he would have 3000 hits (and be a worse player most likely). He walked a ton. He has more times on base than many in the 3000 hit club, including Tony Gwynn who I think is one of his best comps (Wade Boggs is another).

http://www.raines30.com/

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 8:37 PM EST up 0 recs

OK

I could see Raines.

Blyleven? The strikeouts and shutouts are because he pitched 22(!) years. I can't think of ten players that have played 22 years. Longevity is nice and all, but in my mind, the Hall of Fame is for total badassery, not solid and steady production.

You'd have a better chance of convincing me on career ERA, I guess. But Blyleven is basically a career .500 pitcher. 250 losses!

Whoa, regarding this postseason stuff, Morris was the unquestioned #1 on three world series winning teams. Blyleven was ok for 79 and 92, but hardly what you'd call the badass of the pitching staff.

At worst, I could maybe concede that Morris isn't a Hall of Famer (and now that I look at that 3.90 career ERA, maybe I will), but there's no way in my mind that Blyleven is.

by bobestes on Dec 29, 2007 9:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Morris

I wouldn't call Morris the unquestioned #1 on three World Series winners. Maybe if you're talking about some sort of feeling he invoked in people, but if we're talking about quality he wasn't the best pitcher on those teams. Dan Petry was the best pitcher on the early 80's Tigers. And Morris was a big ol' bag of average for the 92 Jays.

(from Posnanski)
1984 Detroit Tigers:
Jack Morris went 19-11, 3.60 ERA, 148 Ks, 87 walks, 109 ERA+.
Dan Petry went 18-8, 3.24 ERA, 144 Ks, 66 walks, 121 ERA+.

1991 Minnesota Twins:
Jack Morris went 18-12, 3.43 ERA, 163 Ks, 92 walks, 124 ERA+
Scott Erickson went 20-8, 3.18 ERA, 108 Ks, 71 walks, 134 ERA+
Kevin Tapani went 16-9, 2.99 ERA, 135 Ks, 40 walks, 143 ERA+

1992 Toronto Blue Jays
Jack Morris went 21-6, 4.04 ERA, 132 Ks, 80 walks. 102 ERA+
Juan Guzman went 16-5, 2.64 ERA, 165 Ks, 72 walks, 156 ERA+

If you want to talk about dominance choose Morris' best season. Blyleven has 5 or 6 seasons better than it.*

*Unless you put a big emphasis on pitchers' "wins" and "losses" (Bert suffered from historically poor run support). If you do really dig W-L record we converse from across a great divide.

Hey, The Giants are really giving it to the Patriots.

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 10:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Damn you

It took me 7 minutes longer because I looked that shit up myself.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 29, 2007 10:09 PM EST up 0 recs

we're putting the tag team hurt on him

Looking up stuff yourself is way too old school for me.

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 10:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Unquestioned #1?

If you want to argue Blyleven's counting stats were the result of longevity, that's fine. But, how about the fact that Blyleven had EIGHT STRAIGHT SEASONS with an ERA better than Morris's BEST season? When Morris was at his absolute most badassness, Blyleven was more badass even when he wasn't quite as badass as he was at other times. The reason Blyleven had a career record slightly above .500 was that his offenses didn't give him any run support. Hardly his fault, as after 1972, pitchers didn't bat in the AL. Morris's team scored over 5 runs a game for him 8 times in his career. Blyleven got that kind of support twice. That explains the win/loss difference, and it had absolutely nothing to do with how well they pitched. Why should Blyleven's HOF case hinge on how well his offense performed?

As for Morris's World Series teams...

With the Tigers in 1984 (Morris's first WS team), he went 19-11 with a 3.60 ERA. Dan Petry went 18-8 with a 3.24 ERA.

With the Twins in 1991, Morris went 18-12 with a 3.43 ERA. Scott Erickson went 20-8 with a 3.18 ERA, and Kevin Tapani went 16-9 with a 2.99 ERA.

With the Jays in 1992, Morris went 21-6 with a 4.04 ERA. Juan Guzman went 16-5 with a 2.64 ERA, and Jimmy Key went 13-13 with a 3.53 ERA.

I'd argue that he wasn't the best pitcher on any of his World Series staffs.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 29, 2007 10:07 PM EST up 0 recs

hmmm

When the Hall of Fame started putting people like Puckett, Molitor and Ozzie in on first ballots it lost some luster to me. They should rename it the Hall of Media darlings

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Dec 29, 2007 10:30 PM EST 0 recs

It's losing luster for me

every time I read an article from one of its gatekeepers. Gerry Fraley of The Sporting News just dropped this bomb:

Raines' case was hurt by his reluctance to run in all situations, as Rickey Henderson did. Raines seemed at times too concerned about preserving his stolen-base percentage.

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 10:55 PM EST up 0 recs

well...

never heard that Raines wouldnt run when it was called for, i dont think he gave a damn about his sb percentage. i need a 2nd source for this to have relevance.

kinda heard the same BS about ED44.

by obc2 on Dec 29, 2007 11:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Why doesn't anyone ever make the case for

Deion Sanders to be in the Hall of Fame?

Oh Wait...Nevermind...

Put in a quarter...Turn out the lights...Magic Fingers makes ya feel alright!

by chandrathan on Dec 29, 2007 11:40 PM EST 0 recs

Bo Jackson too...

Both the MLB and NFL. Because if hadn't been injured and you project his numbers he would have been a greater 2 sport player than Deion Sanders....Oh never mind

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 30, 2007 12:02 PM EST up 0 recs

The thing about Morris

that everyone (including me) remembers is that damn 10 inning game.

Now that was sweet, no doubt. Possibly the greatest moment in a really swell career. But how low are we going to set the bar for the HoF?

I mean, I really loved Puckett as a player, but putting him in -- particularly as a first balloter -- is gonna open the door to a whole bunch of people that I am not certain that belong.

I'm telling you, with Ozzie in, I do not see how in the world Davey isn't in...and there sure as hell better not be an argument when Lark comes on the ballot.

"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball" - Pete Rose

by Officer Dibble on Dec 30, 2007 12:48 PM EST 0 recs

Larkin's greatest comp is (cringe) Derek Jeter

until you factor in defense, then it tips in favor of the hometown boy. Jeter will definately be a first ballot dude, and we all know its only because he plays in NY. Larkin should have no problem getting into the hall of fame based on this, perhaps even the first ballot. but i dont really get the whole bullshit about "first-ballot HOFers" and "all other HOFs". youre either in or not. it shouldnt be a matter of when.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 30, 2007 5:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Actually

Baseball-reference.com lists Larkin's #1 comp as Alan Trammell, a shortstop woefully underrated by HOF voters.

Frankly, I don't see Larkin being put in by a voting lineup that fails to put Raines in.

by LooseCannon on Dec 31, 2007 2:45 PM EST 0 recs

Larkin-Trammell

It's definitely a valid comparison, especially if you're trying to make the case for Trammell (who I think also belongs in the HoF)

However, in 300 less AB's, Larkin had...

More hits
More doubles
More triples
More homers
More runs
More stolen bases
Less caught stealings
10 more points of BA
20 more points of OBP
30 more points of SLG
6 more points of OPS+ (which is park, league, and era adjusted)

Trammell had...
More singles
More RBI

Larkin was clearly a superior offensive player. Larkin also has an MVP award to his credit, which is a stupid measure, but something voters look at. I didn't follow AL ball much during Trammell's time, but I doubt his defensive reputation was any better than Larkin's. Trammell won 4 Gold Gloves to Larkin's 3, but I think everybody admits Larkin would have won more if not for a guy who did backflips in St. Louis (and some would argue that he deserved a few over Mr. Backflip, anyway). They're both great players, but I think the comparison does more to help Trammell than it does to hurt Larkin. Either way, I think there's room for both in the Hall.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 31, 2007 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

the wizard

As Ozzie keeps getting casually dismissed here I keep wanting to jump to his defense. I'm not quite there yet, but just wamted to put everyone on notice.

by Red Menace on Jan 1, 2008 5:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Ozzie

I'm only dismissing a few gold gloves late in his career that should have gone to Larkin, NOT his Hall of Fame case. Ozzie's a HOFer, no doubt in my mind. (Davey's not. Sorry.)

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Jan 1, 2008 9:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Davey

Concepcion's case is better than he's sometimes given credit for. There's no dressing up his career hitting line - 267/322/357 - but when you adjust for era and account for a generation of banjo-hitting shortstops it becomes respectable. Plus he really separated himself from the pack during his prime, when he was well above-average. Not only was the mean SS production poor but the standard deviation was small, so a decent hitting SS like Concepcion gave the Reds a huge competitive advantage. There were only 10 SS seasons in the NL between 1970 (when he entered the league) and 1982 (the end of his prime) with an OPS+ over 100, and Concepcion has half of them.

You add his speed and defense and a HOF case becomes credible. His career WARP3 of 109.8** is pretty close to the average HOF SS, 112.3. Defensive stats older than the play-by-play metrics are imperfect, but it's not like we have a choice. Under BPro's FRAA Concepcion ranks behind only four HOF SS (Ozzie, Wagner, Tinker, and Boudreau). You add in the other stuff (rings, AS games, etc.) and I think he's in. Not that he has a chance - this is his final year of eligibility and I don't think he's cracked 15%.

** BPro occasionally tweaks the WARP formula. The article I link lists the 109.8 figure but he's now listed with a 106.4 WARP3.

by ken on Jan 2, 2008 11:25 AM EST up 0 recs