2007 Payroll and Roster

by Red Menace on Nov 20, 2006 8:57 PM EST

The Larue money-save got me thinking about the payroll next year. Everyone who made around 300k last year I'm putting down for the minimum .380. If you have any insight into how pre-arbitration players arrive at their figures help me out. Should we expect any of these guys to get a bigger bump? The other numbers are correct I'm pretty sure. And like the Reds I'm counting Griffey's deferred money this year. I'm listing the '06 numbers for Harang, Lohse and Ross and not including them in the total.

Griffey 12.5
Dunn 10.5
Gonzalez 3.5
Freel 2.0
Hatteberg 1.5
Valentin 1.25
Castro .925
Ross [.50]
Phillips .380
Encarnacion .380
Denorfia .380
Olmedo .380

Milton 9.0
Arroyo 3.8
Harang [2.35]
Lohse [3.95]
5th .380

Cormier 2.25
Stanton 2.0
Coffey .380
Bray .380
Majewski .380
Belisle .380
Standridge .380

Wilson and Aurilia buyouts 1.05

Total 54.075
Plus whatever Harang, Lohse and Ross get
Plus Larue cash

So what can we expect the arb players to command and where will the payroll figure be? I'm thinking we have very little to play with.

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12 millionaires!

On a .500 baseball team! Incredible! The salaries in pro sports today are amazing!

And this team badly needs an infusion of talent - so that means the purse strings have to be loosened, or someone making a ton of money (Griffey or Dunn) has to be traded!

I sure hope the young kids in our system (Votto, Bruce etc.) do become valuable members of the team within the next couple of seasons! We need some more .380 guys! Maybe we can find some more Rosses and Phillips!

The current offense won't take us far!

by Dayton Reds Fan on Nov 20, 2006 9:13 PM EST reply actions

amazing

Almost 8 million to the combo of Stanton, Cormier, and Gonzalez.

Meanwhile, Arroyo makes 3.8.

by greg456 on Nov 20, 2006 9:29 PM EST reply actions

budget

*70 mil needed to win eighty games.

*Harang due a huge raise.

*very fortunate Arroyo locked in.

*if Stanton closes (a la Guapo), I name thee El Feo.

*as it is, who plays 1B vs tough lefties?

*sure could use a LH hitting middle IF.

by fletch @ Red Reporter on Nov 20, 2006 9:34 PM EST reply actions

My guess

is that Harang will make about $7 million and Lohse make around $5 million. Usually with the way that arbitration works, Harang will get paid a good deal less than he would probably command on the open market. Plus, I think this is just his second arb year, so I don't think he gets the top dollar yet. Lohse will get a little boost based on the fact that time has passed, but that should be about it.

I bet the Reds and Ross agree on somewhere around $1.5 million. I think that's only $6 million or so more than your total, which makes me think that the should have another $10 million to work with. For some reason I remember hearing about a payroll around $70 million this year. What was last season's total?

BTW, Standridge is gone, but I would bet he is replaced by someone from the minors, maybe the Colonel.

by Slyde on Nov 20, 2006 9:36 PM EST reply actions

thanks for the estimates

I didn't include the 06 numbers for Harang et al. So with your estimates that brings us to 67.575.

by Red Menace on Nov 20, 2006 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

then yeah, there probably isn't a lot of left over money. And lest you think I know what I am talking about, those are all guesses on my part, but I think they are reasonable SWAGs. But I also thought AGon was worth 3 million a season.

by Slyde on Nov 20, 2006 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

Ain't that the truth

You were also on record for 5 WAGs for players you thought the Reds could/should sign. Two have signed elsewhere, and both at 50% more than you thought.

Does that mean Harang will really get over $10????

by sidnancy on Nov 21, 2006 8:30 AM EST up reply actions

To be fair

The market jumped a lot higher than most of us expected and I had made my projections before anybody had signed so far. And I also stated clearly that I knew I was probably wrong. But thanks anyway for pointing out my failures. :P

The reason I think Harang gets $7 this year is because I think his top dollar deal for arbitration is probably $10 million, especially after the market adjusts next year for all of the money. Also, both Soriano and Dunn were making $7+ million in their second arb year, though Dunn's was part of a contract. They both had a longer history of success (4 years compared to Harang's 2), but Harang is in a more valuable position.

I actually don't think he'll go to arbitration. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a similar deal to Dunn's.

by Slyde on Nov 21, 2006 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

Can't compare

When going to arbitration, they only consider what similar players make; thus, what Soriano or Dunn made has zero bearing on what Harang's worth. It will be easy, however, to point at all of those league-average pitchers who make $7/yr, and say Harang is easily worth that.

I would be disappointed if the Reds sign Harang to a deal similar to Dunn's, and doubt Harang would take it. Disappointed, because at most you only buy out 1 year of free agency; doubt he'd take it because the only thing he gains is not having to negotiate next year, and a small buyout. My 4/40 (or even 4/44) deal (a) buys out 2 years of FA (cheaply, if salaries continue to skyrocket) and (b) guarantees Harang a boat load of money. It would also show that the brain trust is really serious, and not just throwing money around the edges of the roster.

by sidnancy on Nov 21, 2006 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry

I didn't mean to imply that Harang would say, "see, Soriano and Dunn made $7 million." What I was trying to say is that $7 million is not the big payout year.

I would assume that if the Reds give Harang a 3-year contract it will be along the lines of you name your number for the first two years and we'll negotiate a number for the third year. Essentially, we'll let you win your arbitration years if you give us the rights to your first free agent year at a reasonable price. Harang will still be 31 when the contract is done and can negotiate a 4 or 5 year deal at that point.

And I'm not against your idea. I would love to have Harang locked up for four years and the $40 million spent will look pretty good at the end of the contract I think. However, I don't know if Krivsky is down with a four year deal. At the most I think he would do 3 years with an option year. He sure loves him some option years.

by Slyde on Nov 21, 2006 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

thoughts

I was thinking 8 for Milton, 5 for Lohse but I didn't say anything for fear of embarrassing myself. I have no clue on Ross.

I kind of knew Standridge wasn't around. He's a fill in for whomever fills out the bullpen. That is one area where Krivsky could apply a few funds to improve. We knoew he like relievers.

Our crappy offense sure is expensive huh? Although I guess players like Gonzalez and Castro shouldn't be counted as offense.

Arroyo's contract is phenomenal. I don't care how Pena turns out, we won that deal.

It's going to be really fun when Griffey's off the books. Next year no more Milton!

by Red Menace on Nov 20, 2006 10:30 PM EST reply actions

No way Harang jumps up to 7 mil

I doubt Harang gets much of anything over 5 mil this year (players don't get big money in arbitration until their last year of it), Lohse will probably stay at last year's salary or get a minimal at best raise, and I'd guess Ross probably gets something like 2 mil. I doubt the LaRue money is more than 1-2 mil, and I don't think we have to pay the buyout on Aurilia if he's the one who declined the option. Also, I believe 6 mil of Junior's salary this year is deferred, and Standridge is no longer on the team. I think we still have 10-15 mil to play with if Castellini wasn't full of shit about raising the payroll some.

by Geki on Nov 20, 2006 11:13 PM EST reply actions

Jr

6 million is deferred but the Reds always count it all in the current year's payroll. I'm afraid it will bite us again in 2010 when they claim they can't sign players because they're paying Jr.

by Red Menace on Nov 21, 2006 1:16 AM EST up reply actions

Contracts

Yea, $7-8 for Harang, $5 for Lohse; I was thinking $2 for Ross. They should sign Harang for 4/$40-44, because he's gotten better every year, and he's gonna get really expensive if he continues to do so.

The problem is, there are still serious holes in this team. As mentioned, who plays 1B vs. lefties? Who's the RH bat off of the bench? When Jr goes down, does the OF really become Dunn/Freel/Deno again? Is EZ the 5th starter again? Who's the bullpen stopper?

Also, add another $380k to your "base" roster, because there's only 24 listed.

by sidnancy on Nov 21, 2006 8:23 AM EST reply actions

Kearns and Lopez

Speaking of how much players are going to earn through arbitration, it will be interesting to see what kind of money Kearns and Lopez get from the Nats, and what that would have done to our payroll compared to the 380K a piece we're giving to Majewski and Bray for 2007 (granted when you spend the money we saved on the Gonzalez, Stanton, and Bubba Crosbys of the free agent market, it might not matter)

by indy on Nov 21, 2006 8:43 AM EST reply actions

call it a feeling

but i do believe we're gonna get a little more salary this year. mark my words, we will get another player who command a few mil...

(why is my crystal ball going black?)

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Nov 21, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions

Larue $

So apparently we're sending about 3 million with Larue, so chalk that up.

by Red Menace on Nov 21, 2006 10:29 PM EST reply actions

Good deal

Buying low on Larue. The Royals are getting a decent catcher (good arm/defense, some pop) for 2.5mm for only a one-year committment. On a team that had any hope of contention, that'd be a great deal. But if I were the Royals I'd keep playing Buck and commit to younger players in general. It's not as if they're going to compete with MN/Chi/Cle next year.

by ken on Nov 22, 2006 6:53 AM EST up reply actions