Red Reporter

Top 25 Non-MVP seasons by Reds players

2008-12-01T16:45:51Z

As we sink into the Winter duldrums, let's take a look at the past. We know the Reds have had some outstanding seasons by players in their history. They had 3 straight MVP awards from 1938-1940. They also took home 6 of the 10 MVP awards during the 1970s. But what about those guys that didn't quite have enough to get them the recognition they deserved? Or maybe the player who deserved it, but came up just short for some reason. Who were those guys?

I used Win Shares above Bench to identify the top 25 seasons by Reds players that did not end up winning an MVP award. WSAB is not the best tool out there, but it's the easiest for me to quickly pull a list like this together. Since the modern MVP award didn't start until 1931, we'll limit our selection to players since that year.

1. Frank Robinson - 1962 - 23 Win Shares Above Bench - 39 HR, 136 RBI - .342/.421/.624, 173 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
Robinson won the MVP in 1961 and then put up an even better season in 1962, but somehow finished 4th in the MVP voting. Maury Wills won the vote mainly because he stole 104 bases, but the award should have gone to either Robinson or Willie Mays, both of whom tied for the MLB lead in Win Shares and WSAB.

2. Joe Morgan - 1973 - 22 WSAB - 26 HR, 82 RBI, 67/15 SB/CS - .290/.406/.493, 154 OPS+ - 4th MVP

3. Joe Morgan - 1972 - 21 WSAB - 16 HR, 73 RBI, 58/17 SB/CS - .292/.417/.435, 149 OPS+ - 4th in MVP

4. Joe Morgan - 1974 - 21 WSAB - 22 HR, 67 RBI, 58/12 SB/CS - .293/.427/.494, 159 OPS+ - 8th in MVP

We all know about Morgan's back-to-back MVP seasons in 1975-1976, but did you realize that he led the NL in WSAB in each season from 1972 to 1976? Morgan lost the MVP to teammates in 1972 (Bench) and 1973 (Rose), and then finished 8th in 1974 despite the Reds winning 98 games (though they did finish 2nd to the Dodgers). I think of all of the players from the Big Red Machine, he's the one that I wish I had gotten to see in person.

5. Pete Rose - 1969 - 18 WSAB - 16 HR, 82 RBI - .348/.428/.512, 158 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
Rose finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in 8 of 11 seasons from 1966-1976. 1969 was the only year in his career where he slugged over .500 for the season and his 11 triples and 16 HR both equaled career highs. Rose finished behind McCovey, Seaver, and Aaron in the MVP voting in 1969. That's quite a crew.

6. Ted Abernathy - 1967 - 18 WSAB - 6-3, 1.27 ERA, 28 Saves, 106.3 IP, 298 ERA+ - 20th in MVP
As you will find, WSAB may overrate relievers a bit. Abernathy's season is impressive, but I'm not so sure I'd put it up there with Morgan and Robby.

7. Johnny Bench - 1974 - 16 WSAB - 33 HR, 129 RBI - .280/.363/.507, 143 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
Steve Garvey won the MVP in 1974 despite the fact that Bench had better numbers across the board except for batting average. The big advantage for Garvey? The Dodgers won 102 games to the Reds 98.

8. Ted Kluszewski - 1954 - 16 WSAB - 49 HR, 141 RBI - .326/.407/.642, 167 OPS+ - 2nd in MVP
Big Klu had an incredible season in 1954, and if it weren't for this 23-year old kid just back from military service, he might have won the MVP that season. Mays didn't match Klu on the counting stats, but his .345/.411/.667, 175 OPS+ was hard to overcome. In terms of WSAB, Klu was actually 4th in the league that season mainly because his defense at 1B left him short of Mays, Duke Snider, and Eddie Matthews.

9. Barry Larkin - 1992 - 16 WSAB - 12 HR, 78 RBI - .304/.377/.454, 132 OPS+ - 12th in MVP
Despite winning the MVP in 1995, it's arguable that 1992 was Larkin's best season. He somehow led the team in RBI that year and perhaps if he had had more support around him, the Reds might have been able to catch the Braves. As for the MVP, nobody was catching Barry Bonds that year.

10. Tony Perez - 1970 - 15 WSAB - 40 HR, 129 RBI - .317/.401/.589, 158 OPS+ - 3rd in MVP
Some may call it fitting, some may call it coincidental, but Perez's best seasons seem to come in years when his teammates were even better. In 1970, Johnny Bench put up one of the best years ever by a catcher and nearly won the MVP award unanimously (Billy Williams got 2 first place votes to prevent that). 1970 would be the closest that Perez would come to winning the award.

11. Frank Robinson - 1964 - 15 WSAB - 29 HR, 96 RBI - .306/.396/.548, 160 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
12. Tony Perez - 1973 - 15 WSAB - 27 HR, 101 RBI - .314/.393/.527, 159 OPS+, 7th in MVP
13. Vada Pinson - 1961 - 15 WSAB - 16 HR, 87 RBI - .343/.379/.504, 130 OPS+, 3rd in MVP
14. Bucky Walters - 1944 - 15 WSAB - 23-8, 2.40 ERA - 285 IP, 146 ERA+ - 5th in MVP
15. Barry Larkin - 1996 - 15 WSAB - 33 HR, 89 RBI, 36/10 SB/CS - .298/.410/.567, 154 OPS+ - 12th in MVP
16. Eric Davis - 1987 - 15 WSAB - 37 HR, 100 RBI, 50/6 SB/CS - .293/.399/.593, 155 OPS+, 9th in MVP
17. Jeff Shaw - 1997 - 15 WSAB - 4-2, 2.38 ERA, 42 Saves - 94.2 IP, 181 ERA+ - 0 MVP votes
18. John Franco - 1988 - 15 WSAB - 4-8, 1.57 ERA, 32 Saves - 80.2 IP, 229 ERA+ - 12th in MVP
19. Bucky Walters - 1940 - 14 WSAB - 22-10, 2.48 ERA - 305 IP, 154 ERA+ - 3rd in MVP
20. Adam Dunn - 2004 - 14 WSAB - 46 HR, 102 RBI - .266/.388/.569, 146 OPS+ - 28th in MVP
21. Pete Rose - 1968 - 14 WSAB - 10 HR, 49 RBI - .335/.391/.470, 152 OPS+ - 2nd in MVP
22. Johnny Bench - 1975 - 14 WSAB - 28 HR, 110 RBI - .283/.359/.519, 140 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
23. Sean Casey - 2004 - 14 WSAB - 24 HR, 99 RBI - .324/.381/.534, 136 OPS+ - 0 MVP votes
24. Pete Rose - 1972 - 13 WSAB - 6 HR, 57 RBI - .307/.382/.417, 134 OPS+ -12th in MVP
25. Bernie Carbo - 1970 - 13 WSAB - 21 HR, 63 RBI - .310/.454/.551, 164 OPS+ - 0 MVP votes, 2nd in Rookie of the Year

If someone offers to pick up my check, I immediately reach for my wallet. Because inside is a note that says, "Say thanks."

2008-11-27T06:18:03Z

It's T-Day, and as cliche as such a thing has become, it's still important to remember that there are things in life to be thankful for. Here's my list. I'd love to hear about yours.

Timely hits.
Title inspiration.
Women's T-shirts and tanks.
Day-long "A Christmas Story" marathons.
Fall and winter leagues.
Turkeys that can't fly.
Sexy hand flips.
Canada.
Extra storage space.
Young, live arms.
Bad girls.
Pitchers who are more than meets the eye.
Nearly perfect television shows.
Corey Patterson is a free agent. I think every fan of every team can be thankful for that.

Dye, Another Day

2008-11-26T14:10:58Z

I know everybody has probably already talked themselves to death on this subject in your pool halls and at the local watering hole, but I had technical difficulties yesterday that prevented me from joining in, so now I will say my part.

First, let's look at Jermaine Dye's numbers over the last 3 seasons:

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	RAR	FRAR	TtlVal
2006	611	44	120	7	.315	.385	.622	.417	56.5	-8.7	42.6
2007	561	28	78	2	.254	.317	.486	.343	15.2	-17.1	-6.7
2008	645	34	96	3	.292	.344	.541	.376	36.4	-7.0	24.0

NOTE: I've added a new column to the table. Some of you may not be familiar with wOBA, but it stands for Weighted On Base Average and the short description is that it is a "runs per plate appearance" stat that has been adjusted to follow the OBP scale. So, .335 is about average, .400 is very good, and Corey Patterson posted a .250 last season. You can read more about wOBA here.

The first thing to point out about Dye is that 2006 is very much an outlier in his career. The next highest slugging percentage for his career is .561, which he posted in 2000 with the Royals. Those two seasons are the only time his OPS has been over .900 as well. Not to say that Dye is a bad player, but we shouldn't expect him to be the guy he was in 2006.

What should we expect then? Well, only two major forecasting systems have been freely released at this point, and both have him putting up very similar numbers:

System	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Bill James	.270	.334	.491	.825	.357
Marcel	.275	.337	.511	.847	.359

Defensively, Chone Smith projects him at about 6 plays below average in either corner outfield spot.

Dye may get a little bit of a boost offensively by moving to the NL, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better than he was last season, and he would have finished 5th on the Reds in Justin's Total Value rating. So, I don't exactly think we're talking about a huge upgrade to the offense here.

So why would the Reds want him? Well, for one thing, he kills left-handed pitching. Over the last 3 seasons, his OPS against lefties has been 1.075, .925, and .917. He'd definitely add some pop to the lineup. He has the 8th most home runs in the Majors over the last 4 seasons. He's got a ring. Arroyo's the only other current Reds player that can say that.

The real question though is "What's the goal?" Dye is owed $11.5 million in 2009 and has a $10 million option ($1 million buyout) for 2010. Adding Dye alone to the lineup does not turn the Reds into contenders. And while he adds some pop to the lineup, he does nothing to help the shoddy defense. I've said before that Dye is the type of player that you pick up to turn your team into a finished product, not as your first move of the off-season.

The Reds are several pieces away from a finished product right now. If they had already acquired some players to solidify the infield defense and all they needed was a right-handed bat to round things out, I'd say go after Dye. But bringing Dye in pretty much locks Encarnacion in at 3B, unless they trade him (and EdE's projections look a lot like Dye's). Having an opening in LF gives the Reds the flexibility to be creative, but acquiring Dye would mean the Reds are using brute force to fill a hole.

I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not opposed to acquiring Dye. He's a very good hitter and would definitely add something to the Reds lineup. However, he wouldn't be the first move I make because acquiring an outfielder limits the team's options. If Dye could put up Matt Holliday type numbers, I'd be all for it. But since Dye's upside is essentially replacing Dunn's, offensively and defensively, I just don't find it to be the smart move at this point.

Votto, Volquez lauded by writers

2008-11-25T13:30:33Z

Votto, Volquez lauded by writers

As expected, Joey Votto was named the team MVP for 2008 and Edinson Volquez won the pitcher of the year award. According to Fay, Votto got all of the MVP votes, but strangely Volquez did not receive all of the pitcher votes. Also receiving votes were Francisco Cordero and Bronson Arroyo. I would have thought that Volquez would have been the unanimous selection.

Congrats to both. I'm sure they get a fancy watch or something.

Peer into the future: Aaron Harang

2008-11-24T17:44:17Z

Sports Illustrated

We've done a lot of talking about 2009, but I want to look a little further out into the future. From time to time throughout the off-season, I will look at a few players currently on the Reds and make a guess about what I think the next 5 years will look like for them. My guess will only be slightly scientific, and any science used will most assuredly be improperly used. I make no stance that these projections are anything but a fun exercise.

After the way he performed last year, some may think that Aaron Harang is spent. And could you blame them? Since 2005, Harang has thrown more pitches than all but 4 pitchers in the league, and if he hadn't missed 5 starts due to injury this year, he'd more than likely have the extra 300 pitches needed to take over the lead. No one would be surprised if the big guy started to break down.

Comps?

When trying to find some comps for Harang, I did a search for pitchers who between the age of 26-30 pitched 1000 innings while striking between 7.2 and 8.2 batter per 9 IP and walking between 1.8 and 2.8 per 9 IP. I got 4 modern matches:

Pitcher          IP   K/9  BB/9
Aaron Harang   1023  7.70  2.30
Mike Mussina   1099  7.59  2.18
Ron Guidry     1067  7.55  2.65
Tom Seaver     1354  8.19  2.42
Roger Clemens  1191  7.92  2.58

Obviously Harang is not in a class with all of those pitchers - 3 of them are Hall of Famers, or should be - but it warms my cockles to see his name on that list.

I, for one, don't think it's happening though. I believe that the time he spent on the DL in 2008 was a direct effect of pitching 4 innings in relief 3 days after starting and then making a start 3 days after that back in May. If you look at his Pitch FX data, you'll see that his average fastball was a full mile and a half slower in his first start after his relief appearance than his typical start at home. It's no wonder that he got rocked by the Pirates that day. And it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that he ended up getting hurt right around the same time. Strict pitch counts may be overrated, but there is something to not letting your pitcher pitch when he is tired. Mechanics get sloppy and the injury risk goes up dramatically when a pitcher is more tired than normal.

But I digress.

Harang showed me enough during his last 8 starts to convince me not to worry about his health at this point. I'm still concerned that Dusty Baker could make another foolish move like he did last May, but I'm not concerned about Harang's long-term health because of that incident.

The most important thing about those last 8 starts was that Harang got his control back. When he was hurting, his BB/9 were up over 3, but in his last starts of the year, that number dropped back down to 2.0. I'm not excited that his strikeout rate also dropped, but I'm willing to accept that if it means that his location is there.

All this being said, I don't think we'll see the Harang of 2006-2007 anymore. I still expect to see a very good pitcher, with some streaks of greatness, but I don't think we'll see him pulling down any Cy Young votes again. This is mainly because of his age and his flyball tendencies in GABP. How good do I think he'll be?

My non-scientific projections for the next 5 years:

Year  Age    W   L     IP    H   ER  HR  BB   SO HBP IBB   ERA
2009   31   12  10  217.1  224  103  32  63  187   3   5  4.29
2010   32   14   6  212.0  220   95  32  55  168   2   3  4.02
2011   33   10  12  220.0  243  108  36  69  191   5   8  4.41
2012   34    9  14  230.0  235  117  32  51  184   6   3  4.59
2013   35    8  12  182.0  194  107  31  54  154   5   5  5.29

So, what do you think? Are these projections realistic? Will all of these seasons be with the Reds? If this is what Harang is due to put up over the next 5 years, would you trade him right now?

A quick peek at the 40-man roster

2008-11-20T16:22:14Z

I hadn't looked at the Reds 40-man roster in a while, so I decided to check it out. Did you know there are only 32 players currently on the 40-man roster? (Reds.com lists 33, but I don't believe Andy Phillips belongs on there) There's a lot of space to fill.

Some of that will be with players that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Based on this list from Shawn back in October, I'd guess that Carlos Fisher will definitely be protected, and possibly Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, and Sam Lecure. I don't believe they'll protect more than two players though because they have too many holes on the big league roster to fill.

I think all of these guys from the 40-man are pretty much locks to make the team in Spring:

Starters
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto

Relievers
Cordero
Bray
Burton
Roenicke

Infielders
Hanigan
Votto
Phillips
Gonzalez
Keppinger
Encarnacion

Outfielders
Bruce
Freel
Dickerson

That leaves 8 open roster spots: SP, 3 RP, 2 OF, C, IF

The last starting pitcher spot will likely be filled from the 40-man roster, specifically from Owings, Bailey, or Thompson. We may see bullpen help from Herrera, Masset, Fisher, one of the losers from the SP chase or, gulp, Majewski or Belisle. I would guess though that Majewski and Belisle will not be offered arbitration and therefore will be released, freeing up 2 more spots on the 40-man roster.

On the offensive side, there isn't a lot of help coming from the 40-man. Adam Rosales, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar all look like backups, and Hopper is the only remaining OF on the the 40-man roster. I would say that Drew Stubbs and Danny Dorn are the only other outfielders in the organization that would have a shot at making the roster out of the spring, but both are unlikely.

So the Reds have a lot of work that needs to be done, but at least they have a lot of space to work in. By my estimate, they are currently only on the hook for around $49.5 million in signed contracts, with EdE being the only likely arbitration case they'll face. Throw in another $4-6 million to cover the pre-arb players, and it really looks to me like the Reds have some money to spend - at least $25-30 million, I would think.

What do you think, can they build a winner with the money they have left to spend?

Wednesday Links for the Sick

2008-11-19T15:09:20Z

I'm fighting my first cold of the season and it's moved into my sinuses, so all you get are links once again. Special thanks to Scrabbles and Kyle for posting something worth talking about the last couple of days. I hope to be back to a healthier level tomorrow.

Baseball Prospectus has the Hot Stove Preview up for the Reds. It's behind the subscription wall, so I can only give you a blurb:
So here's the suggestion that they sneak up on people by giving Milton Bradley a multi-year offer to play left field in a park he'll continue to thrive in. Skip the cautions over dealing in-division, and try to get Alcides Escobar and whatever else from the Brewers for Arroyo, resolving their shortstop problem and adding a hitter who, while he won't get on base a lot, will deliver more power than you expect because of his ability to make contact in a homer-happy park.
Bradley's not a bad idea, but he might be too expensive and risky for a team that isn't quite ready to compete. I have to think the Brewers would be more likely to trade Hardy than Escobar, especially if they are taking on salary. I wouldn't mind having either one.
Crosley Field Terrace likes the new Mariners GM's plan to set up a statistical analysis department. I think he also is personally asking me to hassle Jocketty at Redsfest next month. Sounds like a plan.
Doug's been doing some thinking about Justin Turner. He's an interesting, under-the-radar prospect in my opinion. I think he'll be a good player some day, but probably not for the Reds.
The Orioles are interested in adding Wayne Krivsky to their front office. Is it too late to trade him for Brian Roberts?
Can you name the last 10 NL MVPs in 3 minutes? How about the last 10 AL MVPs? I got all of the NL and missed 2 from the AL.
The AFL has named 6 finalists for the Dernell Stenson Award. None of them are Reds prospects, but I think it's good to think about Stenson every once in a while to remind ourselves how quickly it could all end.
Brew Crew Ball thinks that the Brewers could get CC Sabathia if they just add a 6th year to the deal, even if they don't match the Yankees money. As little as I want to see CC face the Reds 5 times a year, I'm kind of rooting for Sabathia to pick the Brewers over the Yanks. And once he does, I'll start rooting for him to get hurt. :)
Does anybody know if the MLB Network is going to be carried by Time Warner in Cincinnati? If it is, I may very well get fired for lack of output in my job.

Should the Reds move Votto to LF?

2008-11-18T17:36:37Z

I was checkin out John Fay's Blog this morning and caught an interesting tidbit from the Reds Farm Director, Terry Reynolds:

The Hawaii Winter League wrapped up Sunday. The Waikiki BeachBoys, featuring Reds' prospects Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier, won the title.

Both put up excellent numbers: Alonso hit .308/.419/.510, Frazier .295/.375/.547. Frazier led the league in slugging.

"They both swung the bat really well," farm director Terry Reynolds. "Frazier came back OK from the concussion. It was good to see both of them play well."

The plan for Alonso?

"He'll compete for a job with Carolina," Reynolds said. "If that doesn't work out, he'll be the first baseman with Sarasota."

Apparently, the talk of playing Alonso at third base as well as first is over.

"I would doubt that he'll play any third," Reynolds said. "If he does, it would be out of necessity. He's a first baseman."

So if we take what we know about how good Alonso is, how well he performed in Hawaii, and how the Reds currently do have any other true 1B prospects, you can bet Alonso starts at AA. If he performs well there, he might be able to end the year in AAA, which would make an arrivial sometime in 2010 a big time possibility. If the Reds don't think that Alonso could handle any other position, would 2009 be a wise time to go ahead and move Joey Votto to LF?

Votto played 6 Games of left with the Reds in 2007, and in the same year played 41 games of left field with Louisville. In 2008, Joey ranked in the upper half of first basemen defensively in the NL, and I thought he played defense better than I, or even the Reds even thought he could.

Obviously, moving Votto creates a one to two year hole at first base. Looking at the free agents, it is a hole you can fill easier, and probably more cost effective right now than LF. ( You could also try Encarnacion at 1st, a move I wouldn't oppose to, as most of his errors are in the throwing variety.)

Here are the corner INF options right now on the FA Market from MLB Trade Rumors:

1B

Rich Aurilia (37)
Miguel Cairo (35)
Sean Casey (34)
Tony Clark (37)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Jason Giambi (38)
Eric Hinske (31)
Doug Mientkiewicz (35)
Kevin Millar (37)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Sweeney (39)
Mark Teixeira (29) - Type A Free Agent
Daryle Ward (34)

3B

Rich Aurilia (37)
Casey Blake (35) - Type B
Willie Bloomquist (31)
Aaron Boone (36)
Russell Branyan (33)
Craig Counsell (38)
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Mike Lamb (33)
Mark Loretta (37) - Type B
Ramon Martinez (36)
Pablo Ozuna (34)
Juan Uribe (30) - Type B
Ramon Vazquez (32)

You could get a lot of these guys (Except Teixeira and Blake) on a low-risk one year deal, maybe with a team option for 2010. The nostalgic Reds fan in me thinks it would be cool to sign Sean Casey and platoon him with Keppinger or another RH 1B bat with some pop. I think adding a guy like him even in a part time role would be great for the development of Bruce, Votto, etc. (Not to mention the guy can still get base hits (although the power is still not there).

Thoughts, anyone? Should they leave Votto alone until Alonso is ready, or go ahead and get him adjusted to playing out there. With the money the Reds have Alonso signed for, it is a move that has to happen sometime (unless the Reds trade one of the two). Why not now?

What to do with the Reds Bullpen

2008-11-17T22:25:58Z

After years of agony, the Reds bullpen was actually respectable last year. The starters underperformed and, as expected, the offense regressed, but the bullpen held their own and was one of the best in the league. The days of 8th inning BOHICAs became distant memories, replaced by much flag-waving and mirth.

via www.appliedlanguage.com

Of course, Coco was not the only reason the bullpen solidified last year, but there is no doubting his contribution. Many will complain about the price tag, and legitimately so, but Wayner finally did it. His tenure was basically forgettable and short, but if there is an epitath to be written for it, it would go like this: "My kingdom for a bullpen!" After millions of dollars and an infamous trade (and numerous onerous contract blunders) he finally did it. And then he was fired.

So what I want to do here is take a look at what went right for the bullpen last year and what needs to be done to ensure a repeat performance. Out of the 6 main arms in the pen last year, 3 of them are free agents.

Francisco Cordero - 70.3 INN, 3.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

David Weathers - 69.3 INN, 3.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Jeremy Affeldt - 78.3 INN, 3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Mike Lincoln - 70.3 INN, 4.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Billy Bray - 47.0 INN, 2.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP

Jared Burton - 58.7 INN, 3.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

As you can see, Dusty really hung his hat on Affeldt, Weathers, and Lincoln. They really made up the spine of the bullpen last year and it's going to be tough to replace all that productivity. The strength of the pen was really in its depth, as these 6 guys, each one of them, could be relied upon to get the big out when needed. These 6 combined to throw almost 400 innings, and at a combined ERA of 3.45. That's no joke right there.

As we learned last week, Weathers isn't coming back. He should be the easiest of the group to replace, as his ERA is deceptively low. His WHIP was really high considering such a low ERA, so one can reasonably assume his success was due in large part to Lady Luck. But still, he ate up a ton of innings and didn't let many runners cross the plate. We need another arm who can do that.

Lincoln was really a refreshing surprise last year, as he came out of nowhere and really abused opposing hitters with his bona-fide curveball. He's kind of the opposite of Weathers, as his ERA is pretty high considering his WHIP. I'll talk a little more about him later.

Affeldt will be the most difficult to replace of the 3. He was the closest thing the Reds had to a relief ace, as he was equally effective against lefties and righties. I was going to write a whole big deal about how the Reds should make every attempt to resign him, but the Giants stepped in and signed him just as I was writing this. So awesome.

So what can the Reds do to replace these guys? Unlike in previous years, there are internal options in the minors waiting to step up. Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher, Danny Ray Herrera, and Nick Masset all show signs of being decent to good. Roenicke could be a future closer, Fisher had a hell of a year last year, Herrera could be a legitimate LOOGY, and Masset is famous for being traded for a legend. There is also the prospect of one or more of the losers in the 5th starter derby ending up in the pen, so we could see Owings, Bailey, Thompson, Ramirez, or Maloney as a long reliever or something like that. But doing nothing and relying on these guys to repeat the performances of the departed would be folly. It could happen, but I wouldn't bank on it. I'll assume that out of this collective the Reds could fill one of the three vacancies, as this doesn't seem all that crazy.

So the Reds should be sorting among the free agents to find a good LOOGY and a strong innings-eating righty (trading for such things is retarded so FA is really the only non-retarded route). So who's out there?

via mlb.mlb.com

1) Mike Lincoln. He really is the sensible choice, and as The Great Emancipator once said "one shouldn't swap horses in the middle of the stream". We rode him pretty hard last year and he and his bionic arm held up all right, so why not try it again? He made a cool 550k last year and certainly earned a raise.

2) Luis Ayala. He has a career WHIP of 1.25 and doesn't give up many home runs. He may cost a bit more than Lincoln though, as I can see him seeking a 3 year deal. He made 1.7 mil last year between Washington and the Mets and could be looking at something like 3-4 mil a year. With all the cash tied up at the back end of the pen though, it may be tough to throw more money at another guy who won't pitch more than 70 innings.

via chicago.cubs.mlb.com

3) Bob Howry. Slyde mentioned his name earlier in the Monday Linkage thread and he makes some sense. He's been about as awesome as a middle reliever can be over the past 5 seasons, accept for last year when he started giving up more hits and more home runs. He's a good bounce back candidate though, as his K/BB ratio was pretty much in line with his career marks. He is a Type A free agent, but it doesn't look like the Cubs want to risk offering him arbitration. They might, in which case I would pass on him. But if they don't then go for it. Perhaps the Reds could buy low on him and make him the next David Weathers (when he was good)? He'll be 35 next year.

4) Juan Cruz. He would be the safe, uncreative, big money signing. The past two years he has struck out about 14 batters per 9 innings, which is like good and stuff. He may be in line for a 4 year deal. He's been talked about as a closer candidate for some teams as well, so the price could really get lofty. Oh, and he's a Type A and the D-Backs are definitely going to offer arbitration, so he would cost a 2nd round pick next June. I only really included him on this list because he is a good example of what not to do with free agency and bullpens.

via www.latimes.com

5) Joe Beimel. You wanna LOOGY? This guy's a LOOGY. Lefties OPS .722 against him and slug under .400. He's given up 1 (one) home run (Carlos Beltran) the past two seasons, spanning 116.3 innings. He'll be 32 next year and I can see him getting the same kind of deal that Affeldt just got from the Giants (reportedly a 2-year, 8 mil deal).

6) Will Ohman. Another LOOGY, he's only given up 6 dingers the past 2 seasons. He's more LOOGY than Beimel, as lefties only OPS .603 against him. That's worse than Paul Bako. He and Beimel are really the best looking LOOGYs out there, and we could really use a true one. Bray filled the role admirably last year, but he is better served getting everyone out, not just the lefties.

7) R.J. Swindle. I don't know who he is either. But check this out, and hopefully it will convince you like it did me.

8) Derrick Turbow. Yeah I know he sucked for over a year in Milwaukee and got his walking papers last May, but listen. The dude had a bad year. I mean, an awful year. Like, worse than Mike Stanton and Todd "BT" Coffey put together. But he could be had on a minor league deal and a spring training invite. For his career, he strikes out more than 9 every 9 innings and doesn't give up homers very easily. Except for last season. Yeesh. But honestly, his past performance should not be completely overshadowed by last year. He could be a steal.

Of course, there could be a trade or two that goes down this winter and perhaps a good bullpen arm could be had as part of a deal, but that kind of speculation is really a non-starter. So there you have it. Should the Reds go with (4) more years of Lincoln? Should we really embrace the youth movement and rely on the youngsters? Do your best Wayner impression, put on a colorfully patterened crew neck and let's build a bullpen!

Monday Linkage: The Wagon Needs to Strike First

2008-11-17T15:30:41Z

Things to ponder while you ponder things:

Matt York/AP

We all know that Edinson Volquez needs to work on his control a bit. He had the 7th highest walks per 9 IP among qualified pitchers last season. More importantly though, he may want to improve on throwing first pitch strikes. He had the second lowest rate for first pitch strikes in baseball last season, behind only Barry Zito (for qualified starters) at 52.6%. How big of a difference can strike one make? Batters hit .268/.408/.414 against Volquez last year after a 1-0 count. When the count starts out 0-1, they hit just .195/.253/.297.
John Erardi had a fine article this weekend about the Latin pipeline for the Big Red Machine. As Erardi points out, it's relevant to look at that link since the Reds are starting to make significant moves in Latin America once again. This may be the most important development for the future of the franchise that we've seen. Sure would be nice if Johnny Almaraz was still involved though.
I've been pushing defensive improvement a lot this off-season, mainly because I think it's a cheap way for the Reds to improve. When it comes to evaluating defense, there isn't one perfect system. Each has it's flaws and shortcomings, but most of them contribute to our knowledge on the subject. As much as I can, I try to not leave my evaluation to just one system - though that can be difficult since they are all released at different times during the season. My point in all this babble is that we've got more data to look at as Baseball Musings has released his Probablistic Model of Range numbers for 2008. Long story short, it doesn't look good for the Reds. Beyond the Boxscore has converted most of the positions to run values and the Reds are second-to-last at -29 runs. The good news is that there is room for improvement.
We haven't heard much about the Reds in terms of shoring up the bullpen this off-season, but I came across a couple of names that interested me. First, Bob Howry had a bad year last year, but I think the reason might because he stopped throwing his fastball in favor of his slider. Given his down year in 2008, he could be had for a one-year deal or a reasonably cheap two-year deal. The other pitcher is Will Ohman. Ohman is definitely a LOOGY, so I wouldn't sign him for more than $2.5 million, but the guy shuts down left-handers (.197/.285/.318). Given that Bill Bray is the only lefty in the pen right now with any real experience, I think Ohman is definitely worth a shot.
I've recently added 3 Reds blogs to our blogroll and I figured I should bring attention to them. It looks like they've all been around for some time, but for some reason I just found them. RedLegs Baseball has been around since May of 2007, but for some reason I cared not. He recently put up a cool video of Neftali Soto hitting the ball far. I think I may have linked to Dunn and Dunner before, but nothing formal. And lastly, there is OMGReds, who have a super-rad Photo Blog to go along with their site, including pictures from this weekend's Big Red Machine Reunion. I'm terrible about linking to work from other blogs, so please click the links in the blogroll often to keep up with their work. And if there is any Reds site out there that I'm missing, drop me a line or put it in the comments and I'll add it.

Friday Open Thread: Where's your head on the Reds?

2008-11-14T15:21:37Z

I may have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Reds new right now. Today is the day that free agents can start talking with other teams. As you know, that probably means the end of David Weathers's tenure with the Reds. Assuming Javier Valentin and Matt Belisle aren't back, that means the only players left from the 2005 squad are Ryan Freel, EdE, and Aaron Harang. Doesn't that seem like a lot of turnover in just 3 years? Granted that team was bad, but for a team that doesn't play much on the free agent market, they sure have gone through a lot of players.

The latest word from Walt Jocketty (via Fay) is that "the Reds will look to trades first and free agency second." Jocketty added:

“I don’t think that’s going to happen right away,” Jocketty said. “It could. You never know until you start talking to people but I don’t expect it.”

So, we may be twiddling our thumbs here for a bit.

Then again, maybe something might happen quickly with Bronson Arroyo. In case you haven't heard, Jayson Stark mentioned:

We're hearing the Reds are quietly investigating whether there's a market for Bronson Arroyo. One team believed to be mulling Arroyo: Texas.

I wonder if an Arroyo trade would get Saltalamacchia or Teagarden in return. Of all of the Reds starting pitchers, Arroyo is the one that I'd be most open to trading. Then again, I'd be perfectly happy with him as the #4 starter next year too.

I think we'll start to see a few more rumors flying around leading up to the Winter Meetings, but I doubt we'll see much major activity. Where's your head on this? Are you optimstic that the Reds are going to make the right moves? Do you think we'll see something soon or do you expect that Walt will wait to strike?

Use this thread to discuss that or anything else going on around the game. Dump any rumors of interest in here as well.

Names of interest, or not

2008-11-13T14:57:00Z

Some names and notes of players that have been floating throughout the interwebs:

Braden Looper - Rotoworld seems to think the Reds would have an interest in his services. Not sure if there is any real rumor here. Sounds like speculation:

Braden Looper (Cardinals) - Looper's 4.94 ERA and dismal strikeout rate in his first year as a starter suggested that he'd have a hard time lasting another season in the rotation in 2008, but he was able to improve for the Cardinals, finishing 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA. That's enough to insert him into the Jason Marquis class of starters and potentially land him another three-year deal as a free agent. The top teams probably won't be after him, but clubs looking for a guy to eat innings could see considerable value in his durability. It'd be for the best if he stays in the NL.

Previous prediction: Nationals - three years, $21 million
New prediction: Reds - three years, $21 million

Jocketty has signed Looper in the past, so it's not out of the realm of possibility, but I see this one as highly suspect, especially at that amount.

Miguel Montero - This one comes courtesy of the East Valley Tribune (via Redszone):

As the Diamondbacks conduct their due diligence this offseason, they have found significant interest in reserve catcher Miguel Montero.

"That’s a pretty popular name," a major league source said.

While the D-Backs would prefer to keep Montero because of his offensive productivity and his affordability, his marketability seems to make him the most likely trading piece to address their hole at second base.
. . . . . . .

Boston could be in the market for a catcher if free agent Jason Varitek goes elsewhere, and Detroit, Cincinnati, Houston and perhaps Milwaukee also might have interest.

Montero put up solid numbers in the minors: .291/.356/.467, though those could be a bit inflated by the Pacific Coast League. He's 25 years old and doesn't go into arbitration until after next season, so he's still cheap. I'm not sure the Reds are a match if the Dbacks are looking for a 2B, but he's an interesting catching option, especially since he'd set up a nice Lefty-Righty platoon with Hanigan.

Oliver Perez and Jon Garland - Rotoworld seems to think the Reds really need to sign some pitching, I guess. The writer is much more non-committal on this one for the Reds as he only mentions them as possible players on these two guys. I don't have a whole lot of interest in Garland, unless he is desperate and wants to sign a one-year deal. I've always liked Perez, butBoras has been arguing that he's one of the top 5 lefties in the game and that his career path looks a lot like Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax. Translation: he'll be expensive. So, no thanks for that kind of money.

Jermaine Dye - Ken Rosenthal mentions in his latest column that:

The Reds are looking for right-handed power, and general manager Walt Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he spoke with the Rockies about Matt Holliday. The Reds also inquired about the Marlins' Josh Willingham before he was traded to the Nationals, and remain interested in Atkins.

MLB Trade Rumors speculates that Jermaine Dye might be a nice fit. The White Sox brass is currently in Arizona evaluating talent (I'm assuming that doesn't mean they are at the strip clubs). As Thundering Turtle points out, these players are currently in the AFL: Carlos Fisher, Robert Manuel, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Justin Turner, Chris Valaika and Drew Stubbs.

I don't think Dye makes sense for the Reds. He's the kind of player that you pick up to fill that last remaining hole. At 35, he's not the type of player that build with. The Reds should be looking for those types of players.

Rec'd: Reds go Green

2008-11-13T01:23:29Z

Rec'd: Reds go Green

The Reds will be presented an award on Thursday from the Hamilton County Solid Waste Management District for recycling innovation and outstanding results.

We put a lot of crap on this site bemoaning the mistakes that the organization makes. And while I'm sure there is more that can be done in this area, I say we at least congratulate them on making some progress. Click the link to see some of what they are doing to reuse and recycle at the ballpark.

EdE to Atkins: A lateral move, at best

2008-11-12T14:02:27Z

David Kohl/AP

The talk yesterday of trading for Garrett Atkins left me with just one question: why? I'm not questioning why because I think Atkins is a bad player. That's not the case at all. He's a good - not great - Major League player. And while his numbers are inflated by playing in Colorado, it's not as if he would likely come to Cincinnati and turn into a terrible hitter.

No the reason why I ask why is because he's not really an improvement over Encarnacion at third base. On paper, they are essentially the same player:

20-25 home runs a year
an OPS+ of 100-110 every year
bad defense
better numbers at home than on the road

On that last point, the resemblance between their career road numbers really is quite striking:

Atkins: .260/.328/.424
EdE: .259/.326/.434

You really can't get much closer than that, can you?

The only real difference between the two player's history is that Atkins has 2006 to hang his hat on, a season where he posted a .329/.409/.556 batting line with an OPS+ of 136. It was a year where Atkins finished 15th in the MVP ballotting. Encarnacion doesn't have a season anywhere near that year. But then, besides 2006, neither does Atkins.

Oh, and there is one more difference. Atkins didn't finally settle into the big leagues until 2005 when he was 25 years old. Edwin just finished his third full season in the big leagues - a year when he was just 25 years old. Atkins is moving into that phase into his career where we pretty much know what type of player he is. EdE is still developing a bit - though by no means do I think he'll become an All Star. Given the age of the two players, it's more likely that Edwin will be the one to continue to improve over the next couple of seasons.

On top of that, Atkins is in his second year of arbitration after making $4.4 million last season. With EdE just entering his first arb year this season, I think we can expect that he'll be much cheaper in 2009. Plus there is the extra advantage of another year of control over him.

Like I said, this is not a case of me thinking that Atkins is a bad player - far from it. And if he were a left fielder or if he played good defense at 3B (a la Adrian Beltre), I'd be in support of the move. But if he is any sort of an upgrade over EdE, it's minimal. If both players stay on the roster, then one of them is going to play a new position while the other continues to play bad defense at 3B. How is that an upgrade? If they decide to trade EdE - a move I'm not opposed to if the deal makes sense - doesn't it make more sense to try to replace him with someone who is not an older, more expensive version of himself?

Can anybody give me a good reason why Garrett Atkins would be a real improvement over Encarnacion?

rockies-reds talking trade

2008-11-11T19:59:27Z

Rockies Talking Trade With Reds By Tim Dierkes [November 11 at 1:17pm CST]

Ken Rosenthal says the Rockies aren't done dealing - they're talking trade with the Reds and other clubs. The Reds like Willy Taveras, Yorvit Torrealba, and Garrett Atkins, with a "definite interest" in Taveras.

Meanwhile the Indians like newly acquired Huston Street and the Nationals are one club eyeing Carlos Gonzalez. Rosenthal says the Rockies figure to hang on to Greg Smith.

It seems we can't yet judge the Holliday trade for the Rockies. It did seem odd that they would acquire a closer and a young center fielder, two positions at which they already had solid options.

so what do you guys think about this possible trade? i am pretty sure it would be a deal involving homer bailey, i am hopeing that this deal gets done some time soon because it will definetly help out the reds to be more competitive next year

What if the Reds went with youth in 2009?

2008-11-11T17:41:53Z

Getty Images

I was thinking this morning about the possibility that the Reds may remain inactive during the off-season. My next thought was that maybe then they should go with a full-on youth movement and let the players for 2010 - at least those that have played in Double-A or higher - play and get them some experience so that they are rolling when 2010 comes along. Who would those players be?

Drew Stubbs - he's probably the only real prospect in Triple-A, at least on offense. Shaun Cumberland put up decent numbers, but I think he looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter. A case could be made that Stubbs should start in CF even if the Reds don't go the youth route in 2009. His defense should solidify the Reds up the middle and I believe that eventually he'll post an OBP in the .350-.360 range. He probably could use some refinement though. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Very good.

Daniel Dorn - he's a left-handed power-hitter who played most the season in Chattanooga last year. I doubt he'd make the leap over Stubbs, and given that he's left-handed I don't see him starting in front of Dickerson. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Slim.

Sean Henry/Chris Heisey - both of these guys are right-handed corner outfielders who need to develop some more power if they are going to play in the Majors. They both get on base well and Heisey has some decent speed. Neither player is ready to sniff starting in the Majors. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Tiny.

Chris Valaika - Outside of his first 200 PAs in Sarasota, his bat has been good all throughout the minors. His defense was questionable at shortstop, but Doug has been noticing some chatter indicating that he might be improving enough there to stick. If his defense is truly improved, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds and start at shortstop on Opening Day - especially if Alex Gonzalez continues to be unhealthy. If the Reds decide to make it look like they are playing for 2009 though, Valaika will probably start the year in Louisville. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Good.

Justin Turner - By all accounts, Turner's defense at 2B is very good and his bat has been solid throughout the minors. With Brandon Phillips holding on to 2B right now, it's doubtful that Turner will see any time in 2009 with the big club, but don't be surprised if he makes the jump if BP goes down with an injury. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Doubtful.

What do you think? Any of these guys going to make the team out of Spring Training?

What will Walt Jocketty do?

2008-11-10T13:29:03Z

Sorry for disappearing (at least from the front page) last week. That'll happen sometimes. We'll try to give you new stuff every day this week. Hopefully the Reds will justify that level of interest.

Al Behrman/AP

We've spent a lot of time this off-season throwing out ideas for various trade targets for the Reds. But, the only real rumor involving the Reds on the trade market has already been shot down.

There have also been thoughts from others about who the Reds should pursue on the free agent market. But, outside of discussions with free agents that were with the Reds last year, there has been very little chatter from the Reds about any possible pursuits.

Strangely, that doesn't seem to bother the local media too much. Paul Daugherty thinks the Reds should just say no (way to keep it fresh P-Doc). Fay agrees. Honestly, I think that's a silly idea. Not that I think the Reds will be good in 2009, but not doing anything not only means that you're playing for 2010, but you're expecting to be able to fill all of your needs next off-season as well. The Reds can do well to start laying the groundwork for 2010. Doing nothing could leave them playing for 2011 at the end of next season.

We've seen or heard very little from Walt Jocketty since he's taken over. He made two big trades this season with mediocre returns (not that he could have necessarily gotten more). We've heard that he doesn't plan to trade Cueto or Volquez (so he's got a brain), and he's pursuing Weathers and Hairston (well, half a brain). Knowing what we know about his history, we shouldn't expect him to sit around for too long, especially not with Bob Castellini breathing down his neck.

So, what do you think Jocketty will do? Will he play for 2009? Will he get that big right-handed bat that he said was the Reds biggest need? Will he take Daugherty's advice and do nothing? What do you think?

Brandon Phillips wins NL Gold Glove

2008-11-05T21:53:50Z

[Note by Rick House, 11/05/08 5:01 PM EST ] Bumped from diaries. I'm a little surprised Brandon won this popularity contest over ChUtley, but I'll take it. Way to go, Brandon!

Just saw on the bottom line that Brandon Phillips won a gold glove. He committed only 7 errors this year in 140 games which was good for a fielding percent of .990 Congrats to Brandon and lets hope that he wins about 10 more with the Reds in addition to finally returning us to the playoffs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3684696

Another fun fact to take up space. Houston made the least amount of errors this year and did not have anyone win.

Democracy is in your hands - heaven help us!

2008-11-04T15:17:37Z

via Chris Sabo's Goggles

Tired of standing in line at your polling place?

Do you wish there was a place where you could vote on the issues that really matter to you?

Well, you've come to the right place. Today Red Reporter will allow you to cast your ballot to decide what matters most to you the Reds fan. Cast your ballot in the comments and let's see democracy inaction.

Favorite Young Hitter

Jay Bruce -This young lefty is full of charm and charisma. He's an all-American boy, but is he experienced enough to lead the Reds to victory?

Quote - "My opponent wasn't even born in America! The LA Times has the original birth certificate to prove it!"

Joey Votto -This young slugger likes to show off his power to the other field. He has more experience, but some think he might be a bit too old.

Quote - "My opponent was raised in Texas and has some suspicious associations with Adam Dunn, an unrepentant strike out machine."

Favorite Young Pitcher

Edinson Volquez - The newly acquired righty quickly established himself as the staff ace in 2008. Can he hold off the pitcher that he claimed had even better stuff?

Quote - "It's time for a Change Up we can believe in. "

Johnny Cueto -Drew rave reviews with his first performance on the big stage but showed to be inexperienced throughout the season. Has he learned from his mistakes?

Quote - "My opponent is a flip-flopper, constantly going from fast ball to a change up and back again."

2009 Center Fielder

Chris Dickerson -CDick is considered by many to be the most athletic player in the Reds organization. Can that talent translate into on field success?

Quote - "My friends, I have been to the Majors before. I have the experience to handle the pressure of playing there everyday."

Drew Stubbs -Drafted in the first round in 2006, Stubbs finally made strides in 2008 and started moving more quickly toward the Majors, but is he ready to take on such a crucial position in the big show?

Quote - "The Reds felt me worthy of selection over Tim Lincecum and it's time for the fans to feel that way too."

Favorite hitter who's been here a while

Edwin Encarnacion -Maligned by much of the fan base, EdE continues to keep up the fight. Some believe that he fails to come through when it matters most, but Edwin likes to prove those people wrong.

Quote - "Read Brantley's lips: I'm not clutch!"

Brandon Phillips -BP is strong on defense but has been known to be soft on issues at home plate. He's been given the opportunity to lead, but the question is will the team follow?

Quote - "My opponent will weaken our defenses and that is not something we can afford to risk on this fragile team."

2009 Shortstop

Jeff Keppinger - He covered shortstop for most of the 2008 season, but will that experience sour Reds fans to the idea of him again in 2009?

Quote - "Two words: Flat. Out."

Alex Gonzalez - Some may not remember that he's actually on the team. Those that do remember it may not be happy to have that memory.

Quote - "I have 5.375 million reasons why I should be the starter"

Player you are happiest to see gone

Corey Patterson - A questionable selection from the start, Dusty Baker dug in and continued to let Patterson represent the team. Many believe this was a major reason why the Reds ultimately lost.

Quote - "I can see Dusty's daughter's window from my house!"

Paul Bako -He wasn't the first choice to be catcher, but after an injury to the expected starter and a surprisingly hot start, Bako found himself as the front-runner at the position, even after he started sucking again.

Quote - "I've seen Johnny Bench. I know Johnny Bench. And I, my friends, am no Johnny Bench."

Free Agent Profile: Mark Kotsay

2008-11-03T21:08:44Z

Whenever I see a rumor or a suggestion by someone that a free agent may sign with the Reds, I am going to try to do a quick profile of that player for discussion purposes. I know today's profile isn't credible beyond one man's theories, but we need to start somewhere...

MLB Trade Rumors has posted their Top 50 free agents on the market with predictions of who each player will play for in 2009. The only player that Dierkes has going to the Reds is...

45. Mark Kotsay - Reds. Kotsay can step in at center field for a year to allow younger players to come along.

Steven Senne/AP

Kotsay is a left-handed hitting outfielder who has played center field most of his career. He was taken by the Florida Marlins with the 9th pick in the 1996 draft and tore up Double-A in 1997 (.306/.407/.514), even earning some playing time in the Majors during July of that year. He was up with the Marlins to stay in 1998 (partly because they had dumped most of their previous season's World Series winning roster).

He spent two seasons with the Marlins before being traded to the Padres for Matt Clement. He finally started to develop some on base skill in San Diego, but he has never really managed to show much power as a Major Leaguer - not that it was expected of him. Where he was truly starting to make a difference was as a strong defensive center fielder, a fact that drew the lustful eye of Billy Beane, who traded Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez to acquire Kotsay in November of 2003.

Kotsay's defensive skill started to slip a couple of years after going to Oakland though, which didn't help the fact that he was also becoming offensively offensive. Kotsay was injured for a good portion of the 2007 season and sucked for the rest of it. He posted a 57 OPS+ in 56 games with Oakland that season, and he wasn't the same player in CF that he had been just a few years before. In 2008, he split time between Boston and Atlanta and was basically a replacement level player during the year.

He hasn't posted an OBP above .340 since 2004, which is also the last time he was much above average as a defensive player. Honestly, I'm not sure how he makes 45th on Dierkes's list and I'm even more confused why the Reds would want him over Chris Dickerson. That doesn't mean it won't happen, just that I don't see why it should.

For reference sake, here is the breakdown for his last 4 seasons:

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RAR	Field	TtlVal
2005	629	15	82	5	.280	.325	.421	14.5	-3.0	14.3
2006	558	7	59	6	.275	.332	.386	4.6	-3.0	4.4
2007	226	1	20	1	.214	.279	.296	-8.0	-0.3	-7.0
2008	436	6	49	2	.276	.329	.403	6.0	-10.0	-3.0