FanPost

The 2015 Mariners, with only a few nautical puns

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Of MLB's 30 franchises, only two have never claimed a pennant: the Expos/Nationals, and the Mariners. The blues were calling when Dr. Crane diagnosed the M's in 2013. The clouds have since lifted from the Emerald City, and the M's crept up on the AL last year to fall just a game short of the wild card. They're now one of the internet's sexier picks to take the AL West. Why?

  • Kyle Seager has turned into a quiet star at 3B. He's improved in each season, finishing with 6 WAR and an All-Star appearance last year. Seager is 27 and now signed through 2021.
  • Newly signed Robinson Cano mashed last year just like he did in New York when you consider the death valley that is Safeco Field. But Cano broke his toe, don't you know, in Tokyo. He's 32 and signed through 2023.
  • Felix Hernandez is still excellent, throwing 236 innings last year with a 170 ERA+. He's 28 and signed through 2019.

That's three blue chip stars who contributed about 18 wins last year. A top-heavy roster should be familiar to Mariners fans. The Griffey/A-Rod/Martinez teams were exciting, but topped out at 91 wins and early playoff departures. Of course, with anchors like Brian Hunter and Russ Davis holding the offense at bay, the Mariners were bound to walk the plank come October.

The 2014 Mariners similarly employed flotsam at some key offense-first positions. Justin Smoak, James Jones, Kendrys Morales, and Corey Hart contributed sub-replacement play at 1B, CF, and DH. Here's who Seattle hopes will patch those leaks:

  • Nelson Cruz was the only player to hit 40 home runs last year. He's a heavy 34 signed through 2018, but the Mariners sorely need RH slugging.
  • CF was already covered when Austin Jackson arrived at the trading deadline. He's only 27, but I'd be a little worried that he's now declined for three straight years.
  • Logan Morrison started the year on the DL with hamstring problems, but took over 1B in June and hit a reasonable 262/315/420. The M's hope he can approximate that 111 OPS+, but avoid the injuries that have plagued his career so far.

Other arrivals include OF Seth Smith and LHP J.A. Happ. There's a battle at SS between Brad Miller and Chris Taylor. Miller put up an 88 OPS+ last year with a negative BIS fielding rating; Taylor is 24 and has barely played in the bigs. Hey, who does Paul Janish have to %#&@! around here to get a ST invite?

I haven't addressed the pitching much, but the M's are very solid here. The staff allowed the fewest runs in the AL and had the second best ERA+, mostly on the strength of King Felix and an incredible bullpen. They lose Chris Young, who gave them an unexpectedly average 29 starts, but expect to see full years from lefty James Paxton and the fireballing righty Taijuan Walker.

Old Friends: Fresh off the Corey Hart disappointment, GM Jack Zdlfsksdslj is hoping that another thirtysomething Brewer will find new life in Seattle. Rickie Weeks looks to hit lefties and back up the infielders. He's only 32, if you can believe it. Chris Denorfia is also hanging around the Mariners.

Best shape of his life: Jesus Montero has dropped 45 pounds. Keep dodging those ice cream sandwiches, buddy!

Reds dealings: Just about none. The teams last swapped in 2009, when the Reds traded Robert Manuel for Wladimir Balentien. But you know, you could make a pretty good outfield from who the Reds have acquired from Seattle. In addition to Balentien, there's of course Griffey, Kevin Mitchell, and Dave Collins.

Prognosis: Baseball Prospectus ranks the M's third in the league, and FanGraphs has them at the top. I guess? I can't say I know the AL enough to make an educated judgment, but it seems like the offense has a lot of holes. And while the pitching was great last year, Felix was the only starter to give them over 180 innings. Bullpens are fickle. They seem like an affable bunch, with great beards and all, so this quote from Manager Lloyd McClendon about Jesus Montero is about as good as anything to wrap this up: "I think he’s in a much better place as a human being…The baseball skills, we’ll see."

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Now leading off for Seattle

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