FanPost

The Reds History of Long-term Deals for Pitchers Is Sketchy

Homer Bailey pitchy

Homer Bailey got paid last February. Should Johnny Cueto get paid this February?

You're a Reds fan, so you likely already have strong opinions on whether or not Johnny Cueto should be signed to a long-term deal by the team. Perhaps you can't fathom the team parting with arguably the best starting pitcher the franchise has developed in at least 30 years, if not more. Maybe you think long term deals for pitchers are dumb just on principle. Perchance you think Cueto is going to catch up to his FIP one of these days.

Whatever your stance, you aren't wrong if you have a little anxiety about keeping or losing Cueto. The future is a scary place, but even more so for big league pitchers, who are all one shoulder injury away from opening a vineyard. The anxiety isn't assuaged by looking at the past either. It's rare that a long-term contract works well for a team, or a player for that matter (outside of the gobs of money). The Reds past is a collection of shining examples of that fact.

I went back and looked at all of the 4+ year deals that the Reds have given to pitchers in the free agent era.* While researching 100 Things Reds Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die (shameless plug), I recall reading an article about Mario Soto's contract negotiations in the 1980s and how the Reds were extremely hesitant to go over 3 years on any pitcher deals. As you'll see, it's not something that they do frequently. And as you'll also see, there's good reason for that hesitation.

*I'm pretty sure I found them all, but there isn't a definitive place to look for this kind of stuff as far as I know. Note that i didn't include Aroldis Chapman or Rasiel Iglesias since they were amateur signings.

Tom Seaver - signed November, 1978 to a 5-year deal worth between $2 million and $2.5 million

The Reds traded for Seaver in June, 1977 after the right-hander backed out of a deal with the New York Mets and demanded to be traded. The 32-year-old Seaver was still one of the best pitchers in the game and showed it in Cincinnati, going 14-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 20 starts with the Reds in 1977. In just over a half-season with the Redlegs, Seaver was worth 5.6 WAR for the defending champs. Just another case of the rich getting richer.

Seaver followed up that season with a stellar 1978 campaign (16-14, 2.88 ERA, 4.8 WAR) and the Reds rewarded him with their first big "free agent signing" when the team agreed to a deal with the three-time Cy Young Award winner that would keep him in the Queen City for another five years.

It appears that once he got that deal and all of the big monies that go with it, Seaver stopped caring. Why else would his performance decline so much? In 1979, Seaver was just a 3.3 WAR player, though his 16-6 record and 3.14 still made fans happy. His 215 innings were the fewest of his 13-year career though (let that sink in). And his innings continued to decline in each of the next 3 years, though the strike in 1981 played a big part in that.
1979 - 215 IP, 16-6, 3.14 ERA, 3.3 WAR
1980 - 168 IP, 10-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.7 WAR
1981 - 166.1 IP, 14-2, 2.54 ERA, 4.0 WAR
1982 - 111.1 IP, 5-13, 5.50 ERA, -0.8 WAR

Things had gotten so bad for Seaver and the Reds in 1982, that he was shipped back to the Mets for a fringe MLB pitcher (Charlie Puleo), an A-ball catcher (Lloyd McClendon), and a guy you don't know (Jason Felice). Despite a 9-14 record, Seaver had a decent bounceback year in 1983 (3.55 ERA, 231 IP, 2.5 WAR) before posting 2 more very good seasons with the White Sox and winding down his Hall of Fame career in Boston.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 5 years of the deal:

1976-78: 51-31, 2.68 ERA (132 ERA+), 2.86 FIP, 18.2 WAR

1979-83: 54-43, 3.52 ERA (104 ERA+), 3.85 FIP, 10.7 WAR

-- 4 years with Reds: 45-29, 3.51 ERA (105 ERA+), 3.88 FIP, 8.2 WAR

Tom Hume - signed December, 1982 to 4-year deal worth $3.4 million (one year of deal bought out an arbitration year)

A little over a week after dealing Tom Seaver back to the Mets, the Reds gave out their second long-term deal to a pitcher, this time a reliever. And no offense to Tom Hume, but he was a fairly mediocre reliever at that. Hume had been valuable to the team in 1979 when he spot-started and in 1980 when he was an innings eater out of the bullpen, amassing 137 innings, a 2.56 ERA (141 ERA+) and 25 saves, all in relief. But that was the peak of his value. Over the next two seasons, Hume pitched 131 total innings with a 3.29 ERA (111 ERA+) and that's when the Reds rewarded him with a 4-year deal (stupid Dick Wagner).

Like Seaver, Hume must have stopped caring about pitching well because his game went in the toilet after signing the deal. In fact, it was so bad, I'm just going to list the numbers and move on:
1983 - 66 IP, 3-5, 9 saves, 4.77 ERA, -1.1 WAR
1984 - 113.1 IP, 4-13, 3 saves, 8 starts, 5.64 ERA, -2.2 WAR
1985 - 80 IP, 3-5, 3 saves 3.26 ERA, 0.6 WAR

Also like Seaver, Hume was traded before the final year of his deal, going to Philadelphia with Gary Redus for former Cy Young winner John Denny and minor league pitcher Jeff Gray. In Philly, Hume rebounded for a year, throwing 94 IP with a 2.77 ERA, good for 1.5 WAR. Even still, a four-year deal for a 30-year-old reliever? Blech.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years of the deal:

1980-82: 20-20, 55 saves, 268.1 IP, 2.92 ERA (124 ERA+), 3.62 FIP, 4.8 WAR

1983-86: 14-24, 19 saves, 353.2 IP, 4.17 ERA (91 ERA+), 4.27 FIP, -1.1 WAR

-- 3 years with Reds: 10-23, 15 saves, 4.69 ERA (81 ERA+), 4.52 FIP, -2.6 WAR

Mario Soto - signed September, 1983 to 5-year deal worth $5+ million

Mario Soto was such a good pitcher. He's one of those guys that is underappreciated outside of Reds country. Heck, even within Reds country he may be underappreciated because he pitched on some truly awful squads. When he signed his deal, he was nearing the end of his second straight all-star season, a year when he finished second in the Cy Young award voting (to future Red John Denny) and 14th in MVP voting on a team that finished last in the NL West. He was just one year removed from setting the Reds single-season strikeout record with 274 in 1982, and his 2 year total of 516 in 1982-83 is still the most in franchise history.

Oh, and he was only 27 years old.

If ever there was a Reds pitcher deserving of a 5-year deal, it was Mario Soto in 1983. And despite being resistant to the idea at first, the Reds gave him the deal that September.

Even though his numbers fell off a bit in 1984, the deal looked like a smart one for the Reds. The team was starting to improve and Soto posted an 18-7 record with a 3.53 ERA while throwing 237.1 innings. Good looking numbers on the surface, but his ERA+ was only 107 and after posting 14.3 total WAR the previous two seasons combined, Soto only managed 4.5 WAR in 1984. Not bad, but if we knew about this stuff them, we might have been a little concerned.

Fans were definitely concerned in 1985 when Soto posted a 12-15 record for the second place Reds (if we could just get Mario back to winning again, the division is ours!). His 3.58 ERA (104 ERA+) wasn't much of a drop-off from 1984, and his 256.2 innings were very good indeed. But that all tallied to just 3.4 WAR on the season. Not a bad year, but still trending in the wrong direction.

And then the injuries hit.

Soto had thrown over 1000 innings in the four seasons leading up to 1986. In 1985, manager Pete Rose had started the season with a 4-man rotation against Soto's wishes and it wasn't long after that the pain in his shoulder popped up. He pitched (poorly) through the pain most of 1986 until it got to be too unbearable and he succumbed to arthroscopic surgery late that year. The recovery caused him to miss an Opening Day start in 1987 for the first time in 5 years. And while he did return in April, he was gone again by the end of May with more pain, missing the remainder of the season.

He did start Opening Day in 1988, but that was the highlight for the year as Soto struggled to a 3-7 record and a 4.66 ERA before the Reds released him in June. Over the final three years of his contract - and his career - Soto accumulated -0.4 WAR. Shoulder injuries, man.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 5 years of the deal:

1981-83: 43-35, 2.88 ERA (128 ERA+), 2.93 FIP, 16.7 WAR

1984-88: 41-41, 3.93 ERA (96 ERA+), 4.08 FIP, 7.6 WAR

Tom Browning - signed November, 1990 to a 4-year deal worth $12.5 million

After winning the World Series in 1990, the Reds had some questions about the future of their rotation. Both Danny Jackson and Tom Browning were free agents, but they had Scott Scudder waiting in the wings and Norm Charlton pitched well in the rotation for the second half of the season. Even still, owner Marge Schott did not want to risk losing too much of the team that won them the title the previous year. And so, she and GM Bob Quinn set their sights on re-signing Browning, eventually settling on a 4-year deal before the lefty could get very far into the free agent market.

Browning had a been a steady pitcher for the Reds leading up to the deal, leading the league in starts for 3 straight seasons and pitching over 225 innings in five of the previous six years. And while he won a lot of games, he was never really dominant beyond a spectacular start here or there. His career ERA at the time of the deal was 3.73 with an ERA+ of 102. But reliable innings eaters are valuable in baseball - Browning averaged 2.6 WAR per year in his career through 1990 - and so Browning got a very valuable deal.

Unfortunately for the Reds and Browning, most of what he was getting paid for had already happened. He was 31 in 1991 and all of those innings were starting to catch up to him. He still pitched 230 innings in 1991 and actually made his only career all-star game, but his 4.18 ERA (92 ERA+) was well below expectations. And that would be the high point of the contract.

Injuries decimated the final three years of the deal and Browning only pitched another 241 total innings with the Reds after 1991. His 4.77 ERA was good for a 82 ERA+ during those years, amassing just 0.8 WAR. Injuries, man.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years of the deal:

1988-90: 48-26, 3.52 ERA (106 ERA+), 4.27 FIP, 10.5 WAR

1991-94: 30-27, 4.48 ERA (87 ERA+), 4.43 FIP, 1.6 WAR

John Smiley - signed in December, 1992 to 4-year deal worth $18.4 million

Finally, the Reds signed a big time pitcher to a big time deal to come and pitch for them from another team. Smiley was a former all-star who nearly won the Cy Young award in 1991 after winning 20 games with the Pirates. He was dealt to the Twins before the 1992 season where he went 16-9 with a 3.21 ERA before moving on to free agency, where he was signed by the Reds.

And then injuries and general suckiness ensued. 1993 was a bad year for Smiley. He only pitched 105 innings and hardly any of them were good, finishing the year 3-9 with a 5.62 ERA.

But this is where Smiley flipped the script on its head. Get this: he didn't suck anymore after that. In fact, he was quite good...and he got gooder. In 1994 he went 11-10 with a 3.86 ERA (which was now a 109 ERA+ because of steroids and math). In 1995, he made his second all-star team finishing the year at 12-5 with a 3.46 ERA (119 ERA+) as the Reds journeyed into the postseason for the first time under one of these contracts.

Despite a 13-14 record, 1996 was among Smiley's best as a Red. He finally topped the 200 inning mark (the shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995 didn't help) and his 3.64 ERA was good for a 116 ERA+. Much like a man who flakes out right after getting married only to "get better" every year after, Smiley gave the Reds such a happy four-year marriage that they re-upped for another 3 years (that didn't go so well). In fact, he improved his WAR total in every year of the deal going from -0.3 to 1.5 to 2.7 to 4.5 WAR in 1996. Granted, that's only 8.4 WAR, but c'mon, we need one of these things to be positive, right?

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years of the deal:

1990-92: 45-27, 3.52 ERA (107 ERA+), 3.40 FIP, 8.1 WAR

1993-96: 39-38, 3.96 ERA (105 ERA+), 3.76 FIP, 8.4 WAR

Aaron Harang - signed in February, 2007 to 4-year deal worth $36.5 million (the first year of the deal bought out arbitration)

Harang was so good in front of such a bad defense. (Seriously, the Reds finished 2nd to last in defensive efficiency in 2005 and 2006, and were 4th from the bottom in 2007.) He led the NL in wins, complete games, and strikeouts in 2006, but didn't get a single Cy Young vote. I contend that if you put 2006 Harang on the 2014 Reds, he's competing with Johnny Cueto for the hearts of many Reds fans. But, even in 2006, a 3.76 ERA is not that impressive looking (despite a 124 ERA+).

Either way, the Reds still (smartly) signed Harang to a four-year deal, avoiding his final year of arbitration in the process. They still had not developed much pitching to that point and locking down the ace of the staff, who was just turning 29, was a good move. And Harang rewarded them with an outstanding 2007 season, going 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 6.0 WAR.

Things were looking good for the big right-hander in 2008 as he had a 3.50 ERA through late May, though it was only coupled with a 2-6 record. And then came May 25th. Harang pitched four innings of dominant relief in a 19-inning match against the San Diego Padres and he was never the same after that. Harang got rocked in 5 of his next 8 starts before making a trip to the disabled list. Things didn't get any better when he returned in August and by the end of the year, his 6-17 record and 4.78 ERA were both gross and disgusting.

2009 was nearly as bad (6-14, 4.21 ERA) and 2010 was depressing from Harang's perspective despite the Reds resurgence. It's easy to blame that fateful day in May of 2008 for all of Harang's problems - and maybe it played a big part in them - but his collapse is not unusual and could have happened for any number of reasons. The sad fact is that it doesn't take much for a great pitcher to become suddenly ineffective. Buyer beware!

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years of the deal:

2004-06: 33-37, 4.08 ERA (108 ERA+), 3.94 FIP, 10.4 WAR

2007-10: 34-44, 4.38 ERA (100 ERA+), 4.24 FIP, 7.9 WAR

Francisco Cordero - signed in November, 2007 to a 4-year deal worth $46 million

Corder gave the Reds exactly what they should have expected. He was a fairly reliable pitcher his entire time with the team. He was just about as good as you can reasonably expect from a closer and he helped stabilize a terrible bullpen.

All that being said, he wasn't worth this contract the day he signed it. We all knew it then. We know it now. Let's move on.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years of the deal:

2005-07: 13-10, 103 saves, 207.2 IP, 3.38 ERA (135 ERA+), 3.01 FIP, 4.9 WAR

2008-11: 18-18, 150 saves, 279.1 IP, 2.96 ERA (141 ERA+), 3.71 FIP, 5.1 WAR


Johnny Cueto - signed in January, 2011 to a 4-year deal worth $27 million (deal covered 3 years of arbitration and one year of free agency) + a $10 million option for 2015.

This deal was a resounding success, but Cueto was still 3 weeks from his 25th birthday the day he signed it and the Reds were mainly just getting cost control through his 3 arbitration years. It was a great contract, no doubt, but it hardly deserves to be in this conversation because of the special circumstances.

Here's a comparison of the 3 years before the deal and the 4 years (so far) of the deal:

2008-10: 32-32, 4.27 ERA (99 ERA+), 4.51 FIP, 4.5 WAR

2011-14: 53-25, 2.48 ERA (155 ERA+), 3.37 FIP, 17.5 WAR


Homer Bailey - signed in February, 2014 to a 6-year deal worth $105 million (deal bought out his final year of arbitration)

We're obviously nowhere near far enough into this contract to make a proper appraisal of it, but given the history laid out in this article, one can't feel overly optimistic about its prospects. Hopefully Bailey is the John Smiley path rather than the Tom Browning or Aaron Harang paths. I guess we've got a few years to wait and see, huh?