2014 Community Prospect Rankings: Junior Arias is #20

Junya! - milb.com

Arias all up in your area

With a late surge by KMiB alt accounts, Junior Arias overtakes Juan Silva for the 20th spot on our esteemed list. He's got power and speed (more of the latter than the former), but he falls victim to a similar ailment as many other Reds farmhands...he hates getting on base. After an unfortunate 4.4% BB-rate in Dayton last year (where he mashed to the tune of .284/.323/.469), he cut that in half upon his promotion to Bakersfield. You just will not make it to the major leagues with a 2.2% walk rate, nor with a .14 BB/K ratio. So yeah, it's pretty clear what he needs to improve upon. The power/speed combo is tantalizing, but he's gotta fix the other holes in his game before he moves up the ranks. Look for Arias to start the year at Bakersfield. I added two new names to the list today, just for shits and giggles.

JUAN SILVA, 23, OF
Highest 2013 Level:
High-A (Bakersfield Blaze)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
.386 OBP in 2013, .376 career OBP
Most Worrisome Fact: .413 career SLG and durability concerns
Alias(es): High Ho Silva

Not actually property of the Dodgers (thanks, MiLB.com), Juan Silva seems to be one of the more underrated prospects in the Reds system. Injuries have slowed his development, but the kid knows how to get on base. He's played all over the outfield, more in LF than anything else, but he logged 33 games in CF in 2013. His offensive game would profile well in center, but you'd like to see more power if he ends up getting moved to a corner spot. After a full season in Bakersfield, this will be a big year for Silva making the jump to AA.

ISMAEL GUILLON, 21, LHP
Highest 2013 Level
: Low-A (Dayton Dragons)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 9.94 K/9
Most Worrisome Fact: 7.07 BB/9 (!!)
Alias(es): Call Me Ismael, The Guillon-tine, Ismael Afarta

After a promising 2012 which saw Guillon rocket up prospect lists, the power lefty lost all semblance of control as in his first year as a full-time starter in Dayton. His walk rate climbed by almost 5, although he continued to strike guys out an a good clip. If there's any silver lining, it's that Guillon finished out the season with a very good August, going 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA in 34 innings over 6 starts, striking out 27 and walking 15. Maybe he just needed a year to adjust to the rotation, but 2013 was certainly an expectation-tempering season. I would assume that Guillon will start the year in Dayton's rotation again, hoping to carry the August success into a better 2014.

DONALD LUTZ, 25, OF
Highest 2013 Level
: MLB (Cincinnati Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
.807 career MiLB OPS
Most Worrisome Fact: Lack of power since making the jump to AA
Aliases: The Knockwurst, Herr Lutz, Brauner Hulk

A lot of folks say that the most difficult transition in the minors is the jump from A-ball to AA, and Donald Lutz is no exception to that rule. The Knockwurst blitzkrieg'd his way through Dayton and Bakersfield in 2011 and 2012, before getting a promotion to Pensacola, where he has struggled at the plate in two partial seasons. With his unique path to professional ball, it's not all that surprising that Lutz has taken longer to develop than most, but entering his age 25 season, he needs to take a step forward this year.

RYAN LaMARRE, 25, OF
Highest 2013 Level:
AAA (Louisville Bats)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: Very good CF defense, speed
Most Worrisome Fact: 25 years old, 14 AAA plate appearances
Aliases: Hedy, LaMarre LaMerrier

Here's a name we've seen before. LaMarre has been on our radar since being drafted out of Michigan in the second round of the 2010 draft. He's got speed, a little bit of pop, great defense at a key position, and he seems capable of taking a walk, but for some reason he's never quite put it all together. At this point, LaMarre might break in as a back-up/fill-in OF who will play quality defense and might knock the occasional double and steal a base, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that he'll be a starter or even regular. Let's hope he can put together a nice little season in Louisville.

JEREMY KIVEL, 20, RHP
Highest 2013 Level:
Rookie (AZL Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
9.9 K/9
Most Worrisome Fact: 4.1 BB/9
Aliases: Jiu-Jitsu Jeremy, Evil Kevil

Jeremy Kivel was drafted in the 10th round of the 2012 draft and signed for a well over slot bonus of $500K. Kivel was considered by some to be the best high school pitcher coming out of Texas, and was thought to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick before tearing his ACL during his senior year. He has a big arm for his height (6'1"), he was clocked at 96 MPH in high school, though he mostly sits 93-94. Kivel got his first taste of pro ball last season with the AZL Reds, posting a 3.91 ERA in 50 innings. He is also an MMA trained fighter specializing in jiu-jitsu, which is pretty cool. Check out his flying arm bar here.

DAN LANGFIELD, 23, RHP
Highest 2013 Level:
None. He spent 2012 in Billings
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
13.1 K/9
Most Worrisome Fact: 4.1 BB/9, age, and injury history
Aliases: Rodney DanLanfield, Dan Wangfield

Dan Lanfield was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft. He is another of the Tony Cingrani mold. He was a part time starter and reliever in college. He was drafted by the Reds and put up a great strikeout rate in his pro debut. Then, Langfield started to have shoulder problems in the offseason. He was diagnosed with shoulder impingement and spent the entire 2013 season rehabbing. This is the same injury that Homer Bailey struggled with in 2011. Langfield has a lot of potential, but will be old for any level he pitches. If he is healthy enough to pitch, I'd look for Langfield to start in Dayton or maybe Bakersfield, if the Reds are being super aggressive. But, being 23 and never pitching past Billings isn't a good start. Some people said they wanted to vote for Langfield, so I figured I'd put him up on the list. Plus, I wanted to say Wangfield.

AMIR GARRETT, 22, LHP
Highest 2013 Level:
A- (Dayton Dragons)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
Throws ball fast, is left handed.
Most Worrisome Fact: 15 K and 16 BB in 34 innings at Dayton.
Alias(es): The Basketball Player, ???

Amir Garret splits time between playing college hoops and minor league baseball, though he's yet to excel at either. It's frustrating for Reds fans that he has yet to focus full time on baseball, but the front office knew what they were getting themselves into when they picked Garrett in the 22nd round of the 2011 draft. Garrett is still extremely raw at this point, but as a flame throwing southpaw, he still has a lot of upside. After 5 successful starts in Billings (2.66 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.8 K/BB), Garrett got the promotion to Dayton where his numbers took a major tumble in his final 8 starts (6.88 ERA, 4.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9). I'm guessing that Garrett will have his first full season this year, most likely starting the season in Dayton again.

RYAN WRIGHT, 24, 2B
Highest 2013 Level:
A+ (Bakersfield)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
Very average player, does everything well, doesn't strike out too much
Most Worrisome Fact: Sub .400 slugging % in a full season at Bakersfield in 2013.
Alias(es): Ryan "The Price is" Wright, Wilbur, Orville

Ryan Wright is a prospect that was taken in the fifth round of the 2011 draft out of Louisville, KY. The local product is the kind of player that does all the little things. He doesn't have any overpowering tools, but there isn't a point in his game that will kill you. He can hit a little bit, will take some walks, can run the bases, and has a little pop. John Sickels also believes he is underrated out in the field. If John Sickels said it, then it must be true. The only glaring weakness I can see is his power dropped off last season, and he is turning 24 and hasn't played in AA, yet.

TYLER MAHLE, 19, RHP
Highest 2013 Level:
Rookie Leagues (AZL Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 3.75 K/BB, 2.1 BB/9
Most Worrisome Fact: TINSTAAPP
Alias(es): DJ Mahle Marl; Rap Attack; Pop that Mahle

Nobody will vote for Mahle, but I like him, so you should hear about him. A 7th round pick in 2013 out of high school, Mahle, at 19, already has a nice combination of polish and projectability. He doesn't walk many guys, and while his strikeout numbers weren't overpowering, they were solidly mid-7s. He's still super young, and could rise up lists with a solid 2014.

KEVIN GARCIA, 20, OF
Highest 2013 Level: Rookie Leagues (Billings Mustangs)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: .309/.383/.447, 23 BB / 27 K
Most Worrisome Fact: 20 year old rookie-leaguer
Alias(es): Kevin from Venezuela?

Another low minors guy with upside. Garcia took the AZL by storm, playing all 3 outfield positions well and flashing both power and speed (.447 SLG; handful of steals). He knows how to work the strike zone, which is great to see, but he's a long ways away from the majors. I figured these last few names are more for education purposes than anything, but if Garcia showed up at the end of this list I wouldn't disapprove.

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