FanPost

Results or Rebuild

The 2014 campaign was difficult for the Cincinnati Reds. There is no debate about that. A new manager, no left fielder, a bad bullpen, and injuries to almost every core player will do that to you. BUT, that is now last season. It is now the offseason. It is time for Walk Jocketty (really Bob Castellini) to either go all out for 2015, or rebuild for 2017-2018.

The Reds are a small-market team with a maxed-out budget. There will be no top free agent acquisitions, much less any additions from the middle FA pool. It sounds like the Reds are going to start the season with an eye on a Wild Card bid, but will quickly transition to rebuilding mode if they are out of the race by July. While this makes sense to an extent, there is a huge hole in this idea.

The Reds have four SP that have their contracts expire after the current season (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Alfredo Simon). They have reportedly listening on Jay Bruce as well. That means that everyone but the core is for sale (Mesoraco, Frazier, Bailey, Hamilton). Aroldis Chapman should definitely be up for grabs as well.

The big hole in waiting for July to trade the SPs with expiring contracts is the fact that they lose a TON of value once the regular season begins. A team must control a player for a whole season to extend a Qualifying Offer when they become a free agent. This means that if the Reds would trade Cueto to the Blue Jays in July, the Jays could not offer Cueto a QO at the end of the season. Toronto has already committed a large portion of the future payroll to players, and could not sign Cueto longterm. That means not only do they lose whatever players they trade the Reds, they also get no compensation when he leaves 2 months later in free agency.

If the Reds plan to sell at all this season. They need to do it now, while the value is at its best. The core talent still have several years on their affordable contracts (including Bruce) that would still be around in a few years should the Reds choose to rebuild.

Imagine this: it is now the beginning to the 2017 season. The only Reds currently on track to be a part of the Reds at that point are the core plus Votto, Bruce (team option), and Phillups. Imagine the Reds traded Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Aroldis Chapman, and others to several different teams. If you look at the return in recent blockbusters (Lester, Samardzija, Price), they would get a huge return back. Add those new players to Winker, YoRod, Stephenson, and the other high-level prospects that should be in the MLB then... and you have a pretty formidable, cost-controlled, young team. Oh, and with the shredded payroll, you would have money to add a more pieces that are needed. The Reds could easily build from within. Baseball America just analyzed the Reds system, and we look pretty good (not great, but good). Add those prospects from the trades of the big guys now, and you look like the Cubs do now in two years (very good in a couple years).

I know the All-Star Game is this year. I know this is the last window of opportunity with these players. I know that your contract and time is running out in Cincinnati. I know we should have done better last year. But it is time to look at the future. And the future could be very very bright, if you just take my advice. Lets Go Reds.