2014 Community Prospect Rankings: Carlos Contreras is #14

Johnny bends water - Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

With silver bells and cockle shells

Not much drama this round, as Carlos Contreras easily snagged the fourteenth spot on the list. Dude can strike out a lot of guys, and if he can get his walks under control, has a shot to stick as a starter. Although it remains to be seen whether that will happen. My guess is he ends up as a potential late-innings reliever, with closer potential.

Highest 2013 Level:
AA (Pensacola Blue Wahoos)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
8.6 K/9 over 2 levels in 2013
Most Worrisome Fact:
1.302 WHIP and 8.8 H/9 in 2013
Gopper, Sweet White Wine

The Pride of Pepperdine followed up a solid rookie league campaign, posting a 4.30 ERA in 146 innings between Bakersfield and Pensacola. His ERA was inflated a bit by 115 innings in the California League, but he dropped his ERA to 3.19 in 6 AA starts. Moscot has a four pitch repertoire, and coaxes a lot of ground balls. He was a little more hittable in 2013 than he was in his first season, but if he can keep the walks down, he could settle in as a mid-rotation starter, or as a Sam LeCure-esque bullpen arm.

Highest 2013 Level:
Eye-Poppingest Fact: Survived a shark attack
Most Worrisome Fact: 6.6 K/9
Aliases: Sharkbait, Mr. Rogers, Hangin' Chad

A nice value pick in the 28th round of the 2010 draft, Chad Rogers started his career as a reliever in Dayton before being converted to a starter in 2012. His ultimate path to the bigs (besides catastrophic injuries to current starters) may still be as a reliever, but he's shown an ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark, while limiting his walks. He's by no means a flashy prospect, but he could very well be a contributor at the big league level as a long man, fill-in starter, or reliever. Again, not sexy, but certainly necessary. Also, he survived a freakin' shark attack. That gets points in my book.

Highest 2013 Level:
Rookie (AZL Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
More raw power than Iggy Pop
Most Worrisome Fact: 20 errors in 37 games
Aliase(s): Franklin Comes Alive

The Reds reached a little bit in the 2013 draft picking Kevin Franklin in the 2nd round to lure him away from Arizona State. Franklin provides big time power, which the system is currently lacking, but comes with the contact issues found in a lot of sluggers. If he's able to shorten his swing and improve his pitch recognition, he should still have power to spare. On defense, Franklin is athletic enough to stick at 3B for now, but if his struggles continue he may end up being moved to a corner OF position or 1B later on. He's a bit of a project, but at 19, he has a lot of upside and plenty of time to figure it out.


Highest 2013 Level: High-A (Bakersfield Blaze)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
.386 OBP in 2013, .376 career OBP
Most Worrisome Fact: .413 career SLG and durability concerns
Alias(es): High Ho Silva

Not actually property of the Dodgers (thanks, MiLB.com), Juan Silva seems to be one of the more underrated prospects in the Reds system. Injuries have slowed his development, but the kid knows how to get on base. He's played all over the outfield, more in LF than anything else, but he logged 33 games in CF in 2013. His offensive game would profile well in center, but you'd like to see more power if he ends up getting moved to a corner spot. After a full season in Bakersfield, this will be a big year for Silva making the jump to AA.

Highest 2013 Level:
High-A (Bakersfield Blaze)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 15 HR/60 SB over 2 levels in 2013
Most Worrisome Fact: .14 BB/K ratio in 2013
Alias(es): Jodi, Junya 2

One of two guys in the system named Junior Arias, this speedy outfielder split the 2013 season between Dayton and Bakersfield. He hit .284/.323/.469 over 72 games in Dayton, those numbers dropping to .257/.283/.396 over 53 games in the California desert. Arias has both speed and power, easily setting career highs in home runs (15) and stolen bases (60) this past season. As is the case with many prospects in the Reds system, Arias refuses to take a walk, and his 4.4% rate in Dayton dropped to a laughable 2.2% in Bakersfield. Couple that with a 25-ish% K-rate, and an OBP-monster he is not. Still, his bat has potential, so look for him to keep slugging and running in Bakersfield to start the year.

Highest 2013 Level
: Low-A (Dayton Dragons)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 9.94 K/9
Most Worrisome Fact: 7.07 BB/9 (!!)
Alias(es): Call Me Ismael, The Guillon-tine, Ismael Afarta

After a promising 2012 which saw Guillon rocket up prospect lists, the power lefty lost all semblance of control as in his first year as a full-time starter in Dayton. His walk rate climbed by almost 5, although he continued to strike guys out an a good clip. If there's any silver lining, it's that Guillon finished out the season with a very good August, going 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA in 34 innings over 6 starts, striking out 27 and walking 15. Maybe he just needed a year to adjust to the rotation, but 2013 was certainly an expectation-tempering season. I would assume that Guillon will start the year in Dayton's rotation again, hoping to carry the August success into a better 2014.

Highest 2013 Level
: MLB (Cincinnati Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
.807 career MiLB OPS
Most Worrisome Fact: Lack of power since making the jump to AA
Aliases: The Knockwurst, Herr Lutz, Brauner Hulk

A lot of folks say that the most difficult transition in the minors is the jump from A-ball to AA, and Donald Lutz is no exception to that rule. The Knockwurst blitzkrieg'd his way through Dayton and Bakersfield in 2011 and 2012, before getting a promotion to Pensacola, where he has struggled at the plate in two partial seasons. With his unique path to professional ball, it's not all that surprising that Lutz has taken longer to develop than most, but entering his age 25 season, he needs to take a step forward this year.

Highest 2013 Level
: Low-A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:
Career 1.1 BB/9 and a K/BB ratio over 6.
Most Worrisome Fact: K/9 under 7 and he has had Tommy John surgery in the past.
Aliases: Cisco Inferno, The Human Network, The Thong Song

The Reds took Cisco in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, prying him away from the University of Georgia with $975,000. He promptly repaid the Reds by needing to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2011. He came back to pitch for Billings in 2012 and spent the entire year in Dayton in 2013. Cisco is considered a prospect that already had a lot of polish and is one of those high floor, low ceiling guys. He is considered highly coachable, which makes sense since he is from a baseball family. His grandfather was a major league pitcher, and his father and brother pitched in the minors. Cisco doesn't have an over powering fastball (sits 88-92); he also throws a two seam fastball, a curveball, and a change. His curveball is supposedly already above average. What Cisco lacks in stuff he makes up for with great command. I'd expect him to start in Bakersfield and make the jump to AA by the end of the season.

Highest 2013 Level:
AAA (Louisville Bats)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: Very good CF defense, speed
Most Worrisome Fact: 25 years old, 14 AAA plate appearances
Aliases: Hedy, LaMarre LaMerrier

Here's a name we've seen before. LaMarre has been on our radar since being drafted out of Michigan in the second round of the 2010 draft. He's got speed, a little bit of pop, great defense at a key position, and he seems capable of taking a walk, but for some reason he's never quite put it all together. At this point, LaMarre might break in as a back-up/fill-in OF who will play quality defense and might knock the occasional double and steal a base, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that he'll be a starter or even regular. Let's hope he can put together a nice little season in Louisville.

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