Reds at Phillies, Game 3: Preview/Predictions

There are so many NSFW captions that I could put here; one of which involves former Dayton Dragon, Frank Pfister. Alas, I hardly even know her. - Hunter Martin


Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Sunday, May 19, 2013, 1:35 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Homer Bailey vs Jonathan Pettibone

Cloudy. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.

Complete Coverage >



To paraphrase W.C. Fields, on a whole, the Reds would rather not be in Philadelphia. Since Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Reds have a record of 12-23 playing in the City of Brotherly Love. Regardless of this statistic, the Reds hope to take two games out of three against the Phillies as they wrap up regular season play against Philadelphia today.

The confidence in the ability to beat the Phillies today is certainly reinforced by yesterday's outpouring of offense against Kyle "My Parents Mean to Name Me Howie" Kendrick and a not-very-good Phillies bullpen. I won't call Joey Votto's Saturday a career day simply because it's just a byproduct of what happens when teams are dumb enough to pitch to him, but reaching base six times and going 4-4 is certainly an impressive feat. Likewise, the ten runes plated by the Reds suggests that the other Reds, including Jay Bruce and Ryan Hanigan, are beginning to fire on all cylinders.

Equally impressive against Philadelphia on Saturday was Bronson Arroyo's performance, which Homer Bailey hopes to mimic if not surpass. However, Homer's career performance against the Phillies on the road serves as a microcosm for the Reds' lack of success there: winless with an ERA of 5.92. Phillies starter and rookie Jonathan Pettibone has almost the exact inverse of this in 2013, with a 3-0 record and an ERA of 3.42. It would not be surprising to see this young righty perform well against the Reds' lineup like he has against other teams. However, it would make me mad and want to break things. So, Reds, please don't make me mad and make me break things. I don't like replacing them. Wins above replacement is better than losses creating replacement.

Thankfully, these aren't the 2010 Phillies and the Reds' lineup is not identical to 2010 either. However, that doesn't mean that beating teams like the Phillies on the road are expected, as they are still powerful and have enough Veteran Presents like Michael Young to keep the kids entertained. That being said, it'd be really cool if the Reds could string together a series win against the Phillies after their sweep against the Marlins. Why do I say this? Well, it's because I'm talking about the Reds, they're my favorite team!

Bullpen Log

Reliever 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18 5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman
1.0, 26p 0.2, 12p

1.2 IP, 38 pitches
Jonathan Broxton


0.2, 11p
0.2 IP, 11 pitches
Sam LeCure
1.0, 19p
1.0, 10p
2.0 IP, 29 pitches
J.J. Hoover

1.0, 30p

1.0 IP, 30 pitches
Logan Ondrusek


1.0, 9p
1.0 IP, 9 pitches
Sean Marshall
0.1, 6p
0.1, 14p
0.2 IP, 20 pitches
Alfredo Simon



1.1, 18p

1.1 IP, 18 pitches

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