FanPost

A belated attempt at a series preview, thwarted by the gods of HTML

Ok, so I really liked the Sabre series previews that used to appear on this site. Since I noticed them not being posted anymore, I figured I would take a shot at doing one myself. Some brief caveats:

1) I'm not JinAZ. I'm not as good at this as he was, I don't know how to do all the stuff he did, and I probably can't dance as well (statistically speaking, this is probable at the .05 level). But I am handy with a spreadsheet, so I'm gonna give this a go anyway. But this is my first time publishing anything on a blog, so I apologize in advance if I break some kind of blogging rule I'm unaware of.

2) My sense of humor is weird. Also, like a teenage girl, I will become irrationally violent if all my jokes are not immediately appreciated and liked. Deal with it.

3) I know this one is a day late. It took me longer than I expected to format the initial version.

4) I also can't get my conditional formatting to work either. I'll try to fix that so things are more pretty.

With that out of the way....

Current

G

W

L

W%

Run Diff

aveRuns

aveAllow

Reds

38

22

16

0.579

32

4.74

3.89

Marlins

38

11

27

0.29

-56

2.84

4.32









Projected

G

W

L

W%

Run Diff

aveRuns

aveAllow

Reds

124

64

60

0.518

21

4.36

4.19

Marlins

124

51

73

0.415

-95

3.74

4.5









Total

G

W

L

W%

Run Diff

aveRuns

aveAllow

Reds

162

86

76

0.533

53

4.45

4.12

Marlins

162

62

100

0.386

-151

3.53

4.46

The ROS projects are from Fangraphs, who uses a combo of ZIPS and Steamer, I think. Anywho, the Marlins.

Ouch.

Given that most projection systems use regression formulas, which assume a certain amount of normalization for all outliers (no team is projected for more than 95 wins, I think), being projected for 100 losses has to be some kind of weird reverse accomplishment.

Reds













Starters

Name

wRC+

BB%

K%

ISO%

BABIP

Avg

OBP

SLUG

wOBA

Fld

BsR

WAR

C

Ryan Hanigan

-20

11.80%

9.80%

0

0.125

0.114

0.216

0.114

0.146

2

-0.2

-0.3

1B

Joey Votto

152

18.00%

20.20%

0.155

0.388

0.31

0.444

0.465

0.395

1.1

0.4

1.6

2B

Brandon Phillips

108

6.20%

16.10%

0.186

0.291

0.276

0.319

0.462

0.332

3.4

-1.4

1

3B

Todd Frazier

106

10.90%

23.80%

0.197

0.273

0.236

0.327

0.433

0.329

4.7

1.8

1.3

SS

Zack Cozart

51

4.50%

12.20%

0.136

0.198

0.207

0.237

0.343

0.249

1.9

1.7

0.1

RF

Jay Bruce

89

6.50%

30.60%

0.145

0.365

0.258

0.306

0.403

0.305

-0.7

-1.8

-0.1

CF

Shin-Soo Choo

177

14.20%

18.80%

0.237

0.364

0.309

0.451

0.547

0.432

-7.1

1.5

1.7

LF

Xavier Paul

124

15.90%

17.40%

0.155

0.318

0.276

0.391

0.431

0.356

0.4

-0.7

0.3

DH














Bench

Name

C

Devin Mesoraco

85

13.90%

17.70%

0.121

0.283

0.242

0.342

0.364

0.299

0

-0.2

0.3

OF

Donald Lutz

114

0.00%

10.50%

0.158

0.313

0.316

0.316

0.474

0.341

0.5

0.8

0.2

OF

Derrick Robinson

124

20.70%

24.10%

0

0.438

0.304

0.448

0.304

0.356

0.5

0

0.2

IF

Jack Hannahan

86

11.40%

25.70%

0.065

0.364

0.258

0.343

0.323

0.301

0.1

0.1

0.1

If

Cesar Izturis

16

13.50%

8.10%

0

0.172

0.156

0.27

0.156

0.199

0.4

0

-0.2















Hannigan's line so far, with a SSS disclaimer, kind of jumps out at me here. At first I thought the ISO was a mistake, but he really hasn't had an extra base hit yet this season. Weird. Also, for all the talk of Frazier's struggles, he is still hitting at an above average level his position. Goes to show what power will do for you, I guess. Good to see Izturis is filling the void left by Cairo from last year.

A word about Choo: he is currently projected to have the 6th worst defensive season (by UZR) of any player in the last 15 years. Side note: Matt Kemp is being projected as having the worst defensive season in the last 15 years by any player, so SSS and whatnot. But still, I think this really should raise some legit questions about whether or not Choo really is a good option in center.

Marlins













Starters

Name

wRC+

BB%

K%

ISO%

BABIP

Avg

OBP

SLUG

wOBA

Fld

BsR

WAR

C

Miguel Olivo

60

4.80%

24.20%

0.186

0.195

0.186

0.226

0.373

0.26

0

-0.4

0

1B

Greg Dobbs

50

8.50%

14.00%

0.052

0.237

0.209

0.287

0.261

0.245

2.3

-0.2

-0.4

2B

Derek Dietrich

200

0.00%

18.20%

0.364

0.375

0.364

0.364

0.727

0.463

0.3

0

0.2

3B

Placido Polanco

63

6.90%

6.30%

0.038

0.26

0.242

0.306

0.28

0.264

-0.6

-1.6

-0.4

SS

Adeiny Hechavarria

57

7.70%

12.10%

0.167

0.183

0.179

0.242

0.345

0.257

-0.8

-0.1

-0.2

RF

Marcell Ozuna

139

6.10%

14.30%

0.174

0.368

0.326

0.367

0.5

0.375

1.7

-0.2

0.5

CF

Justin Ruggiano

108

9.20%

26.10%

0.214

0.268

0.23

0.312

0.444

0.33

2

2

1.1

LF

Juan Pierre

57

4.40%

9.50%

0.032

0.268

0.24

0.291

0.272

0.256

0.8

3.4

0

DH














BN

Rob Brantly

77

9.50%

16.80%

0.084

0.279

0.229

0.316

0.313

0.285

1

-1.1

0.2

BN

Nick Green

87

4.80%

19.00%

0.143

0.286

0.257

0.3

0.4

0.3

-1

-1.1

-0.1

BN

Chris Coghlan

46

6.50%

25.80%

0.069

0.286

0.207

0.258

0.276

0.24

-3.5

0.2

-0.6

BN

Matt Diaz

-30

6.70%

20.00%

0.071

0.091

0.071

0.133

0.143

0.13

0

0

-0.2















And now we see why the Marlins are projected for 100 losses. This is a terrible lineup. In fact, the only things propping it up right now, without Stanton, are two rookies (Dietrich and Ozona). Apart from these two, only Ruggiano appears to be a competent big league hitter. Seriously, look at the wRC+'s. It's like a lineup composed entirely of slumping Cozarts. Nothing much on the bench, either.

Reds













Starters

Name

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WHIP

BABIP

LOB%

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

vs AVG

SIERA


Mat Latos

3.04

3.31

3.53

1.27

0.315

0.759

8.40

2.50

3.36

0.89

0.256

3.58


Bronson Arroyo

3.76

3.85

4.08

1.14

0.272

0.722

5.13

1.37

3.75

1.03

0.254

4.27


Homer Bailey

3.83

3.23

3.21

1.25

0.302

0.738

8.93

2.98

3.00

0.85

0.241

3.42


Mike Leake

4.32

4.29

4.16

1.49

0.336

0.759

6.05

2.59

2.33

1.08

0.299

4.16


Tony Cingrani

2.89

4.1

2.77

0.96

0.241

0.971

11.89

2.25

5.29

1.93

0.198

2.43

DL

Johnny Cueto

2.6

3.46

2.8

1.04

0.233

0.855

9.35

3.12

3.00

1.04

0.190

3.17

Bullpen

Name


Aroldis Chapman

2.65

1.94

2.71

1.00

0.265

0.77

13.76

3.71

3.71

0.53

0.164

2.15


Jonathan Broxton

4.41

4.22

4.32

1.04

0.217

0.53

6.61

2.76

2.40

1.10

0.200

3.83


Sean Marshall

1.69

2.06

2.88

0.56

0.143

0.67

6.75

1.69

4.00

0.00

0.111

2.68


Sam LeCure

1.59

3.17

4.03

1.06

0.214

0.90

9.00

4.24

2.13

0.53

0.167

3.60


J.J. Hoover

3.57

5.43

4.38

1.19

0.200

0.92

9.17

4.08

2.25

2.04

0.194

3.75


Alfredo Simon

3.66

3.4

3.78

1.12

0.273

0.69

8.24

2.29

3.60

0.92

0.227

3.20


Logan Ondrusek

4.5

5.28

4.16

1.21

0.237

0.78

7.07

3.21

2.20

1.93

0.231

3.85















The Cingrani vs. Leake debate will almost surely end with Cingrani being sent down. Not that he should be, at least as far as SIERA is concerned, but whatever. Lets just all appreciate that obscene strikeout rate while we can.

Take a step back and look at that chart. That's what a damn fine pitching staff looks like. When the ‘weak links' in your rotation and bullpen are Leake and Hoover/Ondrusek, things are going well. Things worth watching here include Chapman's strikeout rate (as always), Arroyo's lack of walks (ditto), and Cingrani's HR rate (while he's here, so for another couple days).

Marlins













Starters

Name

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WHIP

BABIP

LOB%

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

vs AVG

SIERA


Kevin Slowey

2.55

3.38

4.1

1.14

0.279

0.84

6.57

2.01

3.27

0.73

0.241

4.14


Ricky Nolasco

3.72

3.95

3.99

1.16

0.264

0.741

6.33

2.05

3.09

1.12

0.239

4.12


Jose Fernandez

3.65

3.16

3.2

1.16

0.274

0.729

9.49

3.41

2.79

0.73

0.212

3.41


Alex Sanabia

4.85

5.64

5.39

1.72

0.323

0.747

5.08

4.62

1.10

1.38

0.303

5.44


Tom Koehler

3.31

3.85

4.3

1.16

0.234

0.739

5.51

3.86

1.43

0.55

0.207

4.59















Bullpen


Steve Cishek

4.2

4.06

3.4

1.27

0.256

0.698

10.20

4.20

2.43

1.20

0.207

3.14


Mike Dunn

2.04

2.94

3.77

1.25

0.294

0.874

8.15

3.06

2.67

0.51

0.235

3.47


Jon Rauch

7.36

3.2

3.9

1.57

0.37

0.531

8.59

3.07

2.80

0.61

0.295

3.45


Ryan Webb

1.71

3.23

4.62

0.86

0.13

0.667

6.00

4.71

1.27

0.00

0.103

4.77


A.J. Ramos

3.6

3.5

3.94

1.45

0.34

0.699

10.35

4.05

2.56

0.90

0.256

3.31


Chad Qualls

4.11

3.91

3.35

1.3

0.318

0.756

7.04

2.35

3.00

1.17

0.276

3.08


Wade LeBlanc

6.11

4.98

4.91

1.67

0.345

0.665

6.37

3.06

2.08

1.53

0.313

4.63















Looking at their pitching, you might say "No way will the Marlin's lose 100 games. That staff is mediocre, sure, but not 100 loss bad. No way." The Reds will be facing Nolasco, Sanabia and Fernandez. The most interesting two are the last two, because Fernandez is a highly touted prospect, and the statistics hate Sanabia like he slept with their sister. I have not idea how that guy has an ERA under 5 with basically a 5/5 K to BB per 9 ratio. Fernandez clearly projects as their best pitcher long term, given that he's like 20 and pitching at a level that is slightly above league average. He's also the only Marlin's pitcher who would have a shot at cracking the Reds rotation, and then only as the #5.

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