Red Reposter: Talkin' 'bout projections

Bill Pecota - Sports.Yahoo.com

Both Baseball Prospectus and the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released a new round of projections for the 2013 season.

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the 2013 Playoff Odds Report

Colin Wyers explains the methodology behind BPro's playoff forecast. Baseball Prospectus uses the proprietary PECOTA projection system and each team's initial depth chart to calculate the postseason odds. Wyers and the rest of the Prospectus team employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to adjust for the randomness inherent in baseball that a project system cannot predict. The site has also added an adjusted playoff percentage column, which represents "the chance that a team will make it to the Division Series round (in other words, the odds that it will win the division plus the odds that it will win the Wild Card and win the play-in game)".

The Reds fare well under the initial report. Cincinnati has an adjusted playoff percentage of 71.2%, which is the second highest figure in the National League (the Dodgers are first with 72.0%) and third highest in the major leagues (the Tigers are first overall with 78.5%). Like most projection systems and as with Vegas odds, the forecasted win totals are more tightly clustered around the mean than actual wins are. Even so, the Astros' projected win total of 67.9 seems very high.

CAIRO 2013 v0.4 and Still Slightly Early and Somewhat Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released another round of CAIRO projections to reflect Cleveland's recent moves and other transactions around the majors.

Reds Haven’t Yet Built The Lineup That’ll Keep Johnny Cueto Down

Andromache looks at the different lineups for each Cincinnati starter. For whatever reason, the Reds lineup tended to be a little weaker with Cueto on the mound and this difference shows up in his run support. The effect is not huge, and Andromache makes no claims as to its statistical significance. The cause could be the differing lineups, random noise, or something else entirely.

Jonny Gomes on D&C: ‘There’s no sabermetrics for chemistry’

Boston's WEEI offers some excerpts from Gomes' appearance on the Dennis & Callahan Show.

On being compared with Kevin Millar: "Kevin Millar is actually one of my really good friends. We've known each other for a while. But we just can't be compared to each other, because I'm twice as good-looking. He actually, he dyes his hair. I do not dye my hair. ... His front two teeth are fake, I don't have fake teeth. I have twice as much power as he does and I think I've got three inches on the forearms over him. So there's actually nothing to compare with Kevin and I."

Adelaide teen pitcher signs contract with Major League outfit Cincinnati Reds

The Reds signed 18 year-old "right-armer" Dakota Mitchell to a seven-year deal.

Jaffe on evaluating managers

The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe was on Clubhouse Confidential earlier this week to discuss some advanced methods of analyzing managers. He will reveal his top 10 managers on MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now! episode tonight at 9PM EST. I would also like to thank Chris for being kind enough to pass along historical items pertaining to the Reds on multiple occasions.

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