The Reds vs. rookie starters


After watching the Reds look a little lost against rookie pitchers in two straight games - and having a few more similar performances rattling around in the back of my memory - I thought it might be worth a look to see if facing starting pitchers with "no book" has been a consistent problem for the Reds.

Here are the rookie starters the Reds' have faced this season (minimum 30 big league innings pitched):

Pitcher Age IPvReds ERAvReds opp-linevReds '12 ERA '12 opp-line
Wade Miley 25 12.1 4.26 .280/.295/.340 2.90 .245/.281/.378
Drew Smyly 23 3.0 9.00 .308 /.357/.692 4.31 .256/.310/.454
Mike Fiers 27 14.0 1.29 .167/.176/.188 2.85 .231/.276/.333
Lucas Harrell 27 20.0 3.15 .288/.326/.413 3.81 .252/.316/.363
Lance Lynn 25 2.0 18.00 .600/.615/.700 4.08 .261/.335/.409
Matt Harvey 23 7.2 1.17 .148/.207/.222 2.76 .197/.283/.349
Randall Delgado 22 12.0 3.00 .244/.333/.311 4.42 .259/.344/.390
Christian Friedrich 25 9.1 9.64 .325/.357/.650 6.17 .303/.361/.499
Jeremy Hefner 26 3.0 9.00 .429/.429/.643 4.52 .283/.314/.453
Joe Kelly 24 3.0 3.00 .357/.400/.429 3.61 .286/.349/.413
Drew Pomeranz 23 5.1 5.06 .318/.333/.364 5.14 .261/.341/.433

The Reds also roughed up Trevor Bauer (16 IP in the majors), so maybe they should get credit for that, though it's cancelled out by their performance against Tyler Cloyd (13 MLB IP) yesterday.

A total of five pitchers (out of 11) above were noticeably better than their season numbers in games against the Reds: Mike Fiers, Lucas Harrell, Matt Harvey, Randall Delgado and Joe Kelly.

In the case of Harrell at least, I think the Reds may have been a little unlucky with how they've scattered their hits. Also, all of these five pitchers are right-handed. That might have something to do with it.

I don't think there's anything that adds up to a pattern here. Rookie starters have allowed a 4.24 ERA against the Reds, where NL starters in general are allowing a 4.01 ERA. I do, however, think that the Reds lineup is especially vulnerable to tough righties right now with Votto out and Stubbs still starting (and hitting at the top of the order) full time.

I guess it just kinda sucks sometimes when a some greenhorn takes you to the cleaners.

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