Looks painful, but he's been through much worse.
Here's a data dump in honor of "Thirsty (for data) Thursday":
|Pitcher||Age||Current IP||Pace||2011||3 yr avg||3 yr high|
|Aroldis Chapman +||24||64.0||76.0||63.0||86.0||109.0|
+ Started for majority of 2010
++Tommy John, missed 2010
* Starter in '09, part-time starter '10-'11
**Started through '10, part-time starter in '11, relief in '12
*** Started in '09, most of '11, relief in '10
Starters' pace assumes everyone stays on turn until the end of the season (6 more starts for each SP at current pace).
IP totals considers regular season innings in majors and minors.
Innings counts are a blunt tool, but with the above table and my own biases I think the Reds only really need to worry about tamping down the innings for Cueto, Bailey and possibly Chapman in preparation for the post-season. They can either skip Bailey or Cueto once and/or slot in a spot-starter.
Chapman's innings history might mean he's OK to be used normally in September, but I think his 2010 skews things too much. He's thrown around 90% fastballs - and while he's not dialing it up the way he was in late '10-'11, he's not trying to be a starter either.