Red 'Rithmetic - Anatomy of an Inning

Wrong pick.

.108/.220/.153, .130/.200/.152, p278t3423r2ef3rasfafsafav3g4

Those are lefties' lines against Aroldis Chapman, lifetime and in 2012, respectively. And then a string of keys I mashed after the Padres walked-off over the Reds last night. This is mostly a re-hash from last night's Game Thread, but: the home half of the ninth started with a double off the bat of Yasmani Grandal (we could probably explore the various ironies of last night's games in another post). That quickly created the most important situation of the game (if it hadn't been already): bottom of the 9th inning, tie game. Runner on second with no outs, according to the run expectancy charts, says there's a 63.7% chance of the bad guys score a run. And that run means no more game.

You really should bring in Chapman at that point, who would have faced the lefty Alonso. Rather than IBB him, hope for a K or a ground ball to the left side. Then you can walk the righty Maybin to set up the double play, with a force play at first, second or third. Failing a double play (or run), you then face switch-hitting Everth Cabrera, who hits much worse from the right side against lefties.

Instead, Dusty passed up the lefty match-up and let Ondrusek, then LeCure, try to work out of an extreme average situation (leverage Index around 2.70 for both). It's not Dusty's fault Grandal doubled, or that Ondrusek slipped trying to field Maybin's grounder, but there was a fairly clear script for this inning. He didn't even give it a table read.

No offense...

It's not Dusty's fault the offense has been unproductive during the last three games either, though I'd really rather stick to my personal rule of just finding one guy to blame for any problem.

It's not as though the team hasn't gotten some ducks on the pond. They've had about one per inning over the last three games (not terrible). But they've batted .143 (2-14) with runners in scoring position, with two doubles. Some of it has been unfortunate sequencing - Latos came up twice in RISP situations last night.

But most of it has been a dead zone at the top of the order, with Cozart, Stubbs, Votto and Bruce all without a timely hit during that stretch. Phillips, who reached base three times last night, completely undercut himself with two costly baserunning gaffes.

RISP batting is noisy and chances are, we're just in a trough. For Jay Bruce, despite the rap he gets, there isn't a vein-popping difference between how he hits with runners on vs. bases empty:

bases empty: .260/.319/.526
runners on: .243/.345/.477

I see a player getting pitched around a little. And a team that needs one more big bat. Full or cork and 'roids.

Vottometriques

Something less depressing, hopefully. Joey Votto is interesting enough, without digging into his stat folder. But the Reds aren't right now, so here are some Votto splits to soothe your fevered brow, complete with pseudo-scientific explanation:

  • In domes: .391/.481/.716. Being an indoor kid in Canada means really being an indoor kid.
  • Pitchers Votto owns (some SSS): Fernando Nieve (3-5, 3 HRs), Kameron Loe (4-7, 3 HR), Zack Greinke (5-19, 3 BB, 2B, 3 HR). These pitcher all have self-defeating names, like "Nieve" - sounds like naive, Loe and Greinke - which sounds like an Australian curse word.
  • Votto vs. current Reds: Sean Marshall (.231/.412/.538), Mat Latos (.111/.111/.111), Wilson Valdez (0-1). Having Wilson Valdez pitch is the only way to get him out of the 2nd spot.

Votto in various 3 ball situations this season. If Joey is up to bat and there are three lights under the "B," then get ready to have a little bit of fun:

Split PA H HR BA OBP SLG OPS
After 3-0 24 4 1 .800 .958 1.600 2.558
3-1 Count 26 6 2 .600 .846 1.400 2.246
3-0 Count 19 1 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
After 3-1 50 12 2 .462 .720 .885 1.605
Three Balls 117 21 3 .368 .692 .684 1.377
Full Count 72 14 1 .304 .556 .522 1.077
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/6/2012.
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