Game 61: Reds vs. Indians (7:10 EDT). Lowe vs. Latos.

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Cleveland Indians
@ Cincinnati Reds

Wednesday, Jun 13, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Derek Lowe vs Mat Latos


TV: FSO-HD, STO-HD; RADIO: WLW, WTAM; WEB: Gameday Audio, Gameday


Clear. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

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We're pretty much halfway through June. For chrissakes, let's slow down and enjoy things. June is pretty nice most places. It's been kind to the Reds. Despite being just .500 this month, they've stayed in first place (or tied).

It's tempting to look at the calendar, see that Mat Latos' ERA is close to 5.00 and wonder how late it is for him. I just did it. It wasn't great. With 60 games in the books, the "it's early" defense doesn't fly for me anymore. But with 100 games left and the knowledge of what kind of pitcher Latos is, I don't buy that he's a 4.00+ ERA.

Consider that: Latos' ERA with the Padres last season was 4.26 as late as the end of June. Adjusting for PetCo by doubling it, that's 8.52. You can also selectively look at his peripherals, if you're into that sort of thing. The HR/FB is high and the strikeout rate (at least) is due to tick up. That helps his SIERA down to 3.99. See - below 4. CASE CLOSED.


Mat Latos
Stats Derek Lowe
4.85 (85)
ERA (ERA+) 3.72 (104)
WHIP 1.500
K/BB 1.2
FIP 3.98
xFIP 4.24
SIERA 3.99
IP 72.2


Reds (33-27)

Chris Heisey (R) CF
Wilson Valdez (R) SS
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Mat Latos (R) P

Indians (32-28)

Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF
Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS
Jason Kipnis (L) 2B
Carlos Santana (S) C
Michael Brantley (L) CF
Johnny Damon (L) LF
Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
Lonnie Chisenhall (L) 3B
Derek Lowe (R) P

Bullpen Log

Reliever 6/8
6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12
5 day totals
Aroldis Chapman

1.0, 27p
1.0 IP, 27 pitches
Sean Marshall
0.2, 14p
0.0, 2p
0.2 IP, 16 pitches
Logan Ondrusek
1.1, 20p
0.1, 11p
1.2 IP, 31 pitches
Jose Arredondo 1.2, 24p

0.0, 5p
1.2 IP, 29 pitches
Sam LeCure 2.0, 25p

2.0 IP, 25 pitches
J.J. Hoover

- !
0 IP, 0 pitches
Alfredo Simon

1.0, 10p
1.0 IP, 10 pitches

Bullpen notes:

  • The bullpen is on a minimum of two nights rest, but it's a little bothersome that Sean Marshall is being used lately in a less vital role than he probably ever imagined, even before Madson's injury.

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