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LOOKING AT SOME WEIGHTED AVERAGE AAA STATS TO PREDICT FUTURE RESULTS OF CURRENT REDS

1) I’ve grouped the Reds’ players based on their weighted average age that they played in AAA. So if a guy played 90 games in AAA at age 24 and 10 games at age 25, his weighted average age in AAA would be 24.1 years old.

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2) For cumulative stats (HR’s, RBI’s, etc...) I took their AAA #’s and projected everybody over a 550 AB season, so their cumulative stats are all equally comparable.

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21 and Under

There are 2 Reds who hit AAA with a weighted average age of 21 or less.

Jay Bruce 20.5

Scott Rolen 21.0

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We all know how Rolen has done throughout his career, but how does Bruce stack up?

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JB 0.334 / 0.375 / 0.598...babip 0.391...iso 0.264

SR 0.274 / 0.376 / 0.411...babip 0.317...iso 0.137

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Jay absolutely dominates, crushes, demolishes Rolen when it comes to the power #’s, and was a much better hitter. Although Rolen did have a much better BB:K ratio of 1.0 compared to Bruce’s 0.29, but other than that Bruce destroyed Rolen for their AAA #’s at similar ages. The assumption is that it’s possible to assume that Bruce could do as well or better than Rolen at the major league level, as a hitter!

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23 Year Olds

There are 4 hitters who all played in AAA at the 23 age range

Brandon Phillips 22.8

Devin Mesoraco 22.9

Joey Votto 23.0

Juan Francisco 23.3

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Interestingly, Juan Francisco is the clear stud of the group, while Phillips is the dud.

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JF 0.305 / 0.337 / 0.559...babip 0.352 ... iso 0.254

JV 0.294 / 0.381 / 0.478...babip 0.332 ... iso 0.184

DM 0.283 / 0.366 / 0.482... babip 0.325 ... iso 0.201

BP 0.269 / 0.330 / 0.411... babip .0292 ... iso 0.142

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Juan had a very low 0.17 bb/k ratio while the other 3 were all in the 0.56~0.64 range.

Juan, Joey & Devin all had 95~102 RBI’s and all averaged 100+ K’s

Juan & Devin each had about 44% extra base hit %, compared to 31% for Joey. Juan & Devin each averaged 40+ doubles, but Juan had the best HR #’s of the group.

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Given as well as Phillips has done, it’s encouraging to see that Devin & Juan have done much, much better, and they even bettered Votto in AAA at the same age. I find it encouraging that Juan & Devin could possibly become big time hitters if given a fair chance.

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Old Man Crossing

Stubbs has a weighted average age in AAA of 23.8 while Heisey, Frazier, Cozart and Janish all have a weighted average age in AAA higher than 24. So while the guys listed in the previous groupings were already reaching AAA and aiming for the majors, these guys languished in AAA a few years longer. Not surprisingly, their AAA #’s are not nearly as good as the guys in the above groups.

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Frazier 0.262/ 0.338 / 0.457... babip 0.314 ... iso 0.195

Heisey 0.269 / 0.319 / 0.456... babip 0.294 ... iso 0.187

Cozart 0.275 / 0.327 / 0.435... babip 0.309 ... iso 0.160

Stubbs 0.272 / 0.353 / 0.379... babip 0.354 ... iso 0.107

Janish 0.240 / 0.306 / 0.360... babip 0.281 ... iso 0.120

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Other than Stubbs’ high OBP, both him & Janish were the duds in this group, struggling to do much of anything offensively. Nobody really stood out, and everybody had an OPS lower than 800. Frazier was the best of this mediocre group although his K% was even higher than Stubbs.

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It looks like these guys would all project out to be platoon quality guys, backups, utility men, and starters only for teams w/o better options.

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