What I think the spring training roster is (with color-coding)
You can measure the beginning of spring from any number of starting points. But those who wisely refuse to wait for the equinox or last outfielder to book their flight will mark it February 19 this year. That's the voluntary report date for pitchers, catchers and an oft-overlooked third class of early bird: the injured player. They already have the disabled list, so we're not going to start calling mid-February the Festival of Injured Players Report.
Now that we're inside of two weeks before the ceremonial opening of Spring Training, it's worth giving the class list for major league camp a once-over. Although my research could be shoddy, I don't think I've seen this anywhere else.
I've coded the invites into four groups:
Italic, Bold and Red - locks to make the Opening Day roster, barring injury or trade
Red, Bold, plain text - Likely to make it
Red plain text - Bubble players
Black plain text - Little or no chance
#
All told, there are 21 spots that seem 100% locked-up to me. On a standard modern NL roster, that's 10 of 12 pitchers, 6 of 6 infielders, 4 of 5 outfielders and 1 of 2 catchers - though the team looks poised to carry only four outfielders by adding Francisco. And it could possibly carry one less pitcher for the first week of the season or so.
WilsonValdez and Devin Mesoraco should probably go ahead and be #22 and 23, but I see some possibility (however remote) of a surprise move displacing them. In all likelihood, however, there are only two spots up for grabs if everyone stays healthy. And those spots are probably in the bullpen. They are also only slightly more open than Mesoraco's claim to the Ramon Hernandez Chair for Cooperative Catching - which is to say: nearly closed.
Logan Ondrusek and Sam LeCure have earned their spots in the 'pen, but it's not impossible that the Reds choose (unwisely) to use LeCure for starting pitching depth or that Logan's health and/or a strong showing in Spring by a pitcher like Josh Judy lands 'seks back in Louisville.
Full roster after the jump.
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he could lose his spot in spring training if he posted something in the .182/.230/.255 range.
by Eastwindquinn on Feb 7, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with dcannon5
Also if Heisey isn’t on the roster the Reds have one center fielder.
"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks
yessir
Heisey is a lock for that reason.
by fromcubawithluv on Feb 7, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
exactly
Heisey’s a lock.
They aren’t going to weight spring training performance that much. It’s a really small sample size, and players are goofing off anyway. Very few players actually win positions in spring training.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Exactly
If Sappelt couldn’t win the 5th Outfielder job last year, I’m willing to bet Heisey will be fine
The secret, is to hit the computer with a hammer
the only ST issues would be injuries.
Hello...BOOMSHAKALAKA!
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 7, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I do
I included him in the count, but meant to go back and italicize him. I went back and forth on whether there was a very slim chance Harris or someone surprising could make it.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 7, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really think Daryl Jones has a shot
he’s likely behind Phipps as the last one on that OF depth chart
Fuck lion say what! i got a fuck lion now come fuck wit me
Mostly agree with you.
Though I think you’re incorrect on Chapman. I’d call him a bubble. Don’t see him on the opening day roster unless one SP get hurt, maybe even two. (If it’s just 1, good chance it’s Francis, not Chapman).
I understand your downgrading Devin, but there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth if he’s not on the opening day 25.
You're right on
Like Heisey, Chapman was included in the count but color-coded wrong. This is the first time I’ve done it this way (with CSS coding) and I obviously dropped the ball.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 7, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
'KRP, you're no Wes Welker.
Juggled the ball, mayyyyybe, but definitely not dropped.
Hello...BOOMSHAKALAKA!
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 7, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
And I also have a billionaire supermodel girlfriend who will blame other people
for my mistakes.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 7, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
It sucks that Frazier is on the bubble
He seems like he could be a really useful player, but the roster just works against him.
And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 7, 2012 3:17 PM EST reply actions
I'm sure he will be up before June.
"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks
I demand the Pete Rose fanpost be restored!
Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun
by btcoop71 on Feb 7, 2012 3:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Dude deleted it himself
It’s lost forever now.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 7, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I have a copy!
Who would like to start the bidding!
And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 7, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'll start with this gif

Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun
by btcoop71 on Feb 7, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My gif
Blows your gif off the road. (NSFWish)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Feb 7, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Mine was just an opening bid
I’ll have to view this later to see what my next bid will be.
Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun
I need to email you the GREAT one, you'll lose your mind
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
As long as it isn't tub girl/goatse -esque.......
Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun
It's dirty, you wouldn't like it
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
don't be afraid to send that my way as well
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Feb 10, 2012 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
whiskey. tango. foxtrot.
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Feb 10, 2012 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if he took offense
to us pointing out that his article was full of shallow, poor logic and bad comparisons.
Wear something sexy to my funeral.

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Feb 7, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
That joke’s better than you acted.
Perhaps it’s not. Maybe it’s dumb. It could be. I hear you, man. I’m not a fuckin’, genius, for Christ’s sake, you know? I’m just tryin’ to tell some jokes. Shit, who the fuck are you?
by 'tHan on Feb 8, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
what's the difference between B and S in the bats column?
Tucker and Dioner have S, but Hank-Rod has B.
Brevity is the soul of wit.
Tucker and Dioner are true switch-hitters
Henry is only curious.
And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 7, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
i believe that was the implication
Brevity is the soul of wit.
No No No No No No No
B = banana
Monkeys love bananas
Monkeys are curious.
![]()
And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 7, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I fucking
hate Curious George!
by Joe Nolan's Neckbeard on Feb 7, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Did you two have a falling out?

How about you agree to waive the fine and I promise not to email you the remaining eighty six photos of my dog dressed as a bear.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 8, 2012 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
4 or 5 SP's out of ST?
In recent history, the Reds have gone north with just 4 starters for the first couple weeks. I think they’ve generally carried an extra RP during that time. I think that changes the opening day roster a bit, but not the long haul.
But that was due to flexibility they don't have this year
The only two times I can think of in 2007 and 2010.
In 2007 Eric Milton opened the year on the D.L., and spent the minimum amount of time on the D.L., and pitched on the first Sunday of the season, the first time the Reds needed a 5th starter.
In 2010 Mike Leake was not on the 40 man roster, so the Reds could leave him off the 25 man roster without burning an option, and without being required to leave him in the minors for 10+ days, so they went North with 4 starters, 7 relievers, and Juan Francisco. Like 2007, the Reds first needed a fifth starter on the first Sunday of the season, so they demoted Francisco and added Leake to the 40 and 25 man roster.
Now if a pitcher has a little ache or pain the last week of Spring Training, the Reds may put him on the 15 day D.L. on the earliest possible and activate him on April 11th, the first day they need a 5th starter.
Since Francis is a non-roster invitee they might be able to leave him off the roster until April 11th, the way they did with Leake.
"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks
33 of the players listed are younger than i am.
ugh.
Brevity is the soul of wit.
Even Scotty 2 Hotty is younger than I am
I was really rooting for a Jamie Moyer signing.
And fentanyl ain't that like super-morphine for elephants and soldiers with their head blown off
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Feb 7, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I count 4.
"Good luck, National League managers – I have no idea how you’re supposed to get this guy out." - Dave Cameron on Joey Votto
Ron Mahay, Miggy, and Scotty are the only ones for me
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
According to RR Mobile
Juan Francisco is the only player you consider to be a lock.
by Brian B on Feb 7, 2012 3:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Who in the holy hell is Luis Atliano?
Under my tutelage, you will grow from boys to men. From men into gladiators. And from gladiators into Swansons. ~ Ron Swanson
He's one of them Atlieno boys from Vulcan
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Mostly agree
I’d say Heisey’s a lock, just because he plays CF and he has a track record. They aren’t going to hold the SSS of spring training against him if he sucks.
I might put Chapman on the bubble, just because he has options. I know Walt said he won’t be sent to Louisville, but they have an excuse now, with his off-season injury. Plus, they have too many pitchers.
I also wonder if LeCure and Leake might end up in Louisville, just because they have options. I know it seems crazy, but Leake almost ended up in Louisville last year, at least if you believe Fay.
I’d say Mez is a lock. Navarro is only making the roster if someone gets injured, or if it becomes very clear that Mez is not ready (and it will take more than spring training to prove that).
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I agree with this
except for Leake going to Louisville. I also think it’s interesting that Arredondo is considered a dead lock with the other guys who aren’t. Mahay, Brackman, Judy, Navarro, and Smith don’t have as good a shot as Ondrusek IMO.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
I could see Leake going to Louisville only under one scenario
and that’s if Francis shows up in ST with that lost 2mph back on his fastball, hits his spots, and tells Walt there’s no chance he’s sticking around without being on the MLB roster.
Hello...BOOMSHAKALAKA!
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 7, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
what if
we sign Oswalt?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Arredondo is on a two year deal
and is out of options. He’s a lock.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 7, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I think it comes down to options
Arredondo is out of options, and he is clearly part of the Reds’ plans for the future, since they signed him to a 2-year deal for almost three times what he asked for.
Brackman got a split contract. A generous split contract, but a split contract nonetheless. That suggests they are at least thinking of stashing him in the minors. (Plus, he’s really not ready for prime time, IMO. Yankees made a mistake signing him to a big league contract and trying to rush him to the majors.)
Ondrusek…I’m not sure what the Reds think of him. He has options, so could be sent down. But for awhile at least, it seemed they really liked Ondrusek. More than LeCure. There was talk of him maybe being a closer one day. If you look at the past two years, Ondrusek’s been the better pitcher.
Assuming 12 pitchers, someone’s going to have to be sent down.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I don't know why I thought Arredondo still had options
yeah, he’s a lock pretty much.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
If I am a drafted player, I would rather get a big signing bonus than an MLB deal.
MLB deals to amateurs have derailed a few careers, and I wouldn’t want to end up like Willy Mo Pena, rotting on an MLB bench, because I am to raw to play, but I am out of options and can’t learn in the minor leagues.
"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks
yeah
But the guys who get these deals are big fish in small ponds…and always have been. They were the stars of their little league/high school/college teams, and they are supremely self-confident. They think they need only a year or two in the minors, if that, and then imagine a 15 year career, the Hall of Fame, etc. They all think they’ll be A-Rod, not Wily Mo Pena.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Fully agree with the first two
they’re counted, but weren’t coded right. Fix’d that.
I think LeCure could end up in Louisville if Dusty likes what he sees from Judy or Brackman. Leake and LeCure would both be vulnerable if they somehow signed Oswalt.
I couldn’t bring myself to make Snacks a lock, as much as I hope he will be. I still think there’s a chance (however small) that Navarro makes the team and they play with the clock on him. I’m sure I’m reading too much into this, but Navarro’s contract, the fact that he was given a number and his past pedigree/veteran status could be points in his favor. I wouldn’t rule out Walt wanting to play clock Mesoraco as a small redemption for trading away all those prospects. I used the 1% doctrine on that one.
I think Walt is unconcerned with what happens downstream and knows that Mesoraco-Hanigan is the Reds best chance to win.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 7, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Leake ended up in Louisville last year, because he had a few bad starts early
than when Cueto and Bailey came back, Leake was sent to the bullpen, and than he sucked in relief.
"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks
Yeah, 'tHan. Do you hear that? He sucked in relief.
Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
Crum-Bum Beat
by -ManBearPig on Feb 7, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I meant
out of spring training. Leake had a terrible spring training. Remember that game that Fay said was “Do or die” for Leake? He did all right that day, but it really wasn’t clear whether he’d make the roster or not.
I was at one of his spring training starts, and he was terrible. The Reds fans around me were dismayed, and wishing it was Leake injured instead of Cueto.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?


































