You can measure the beginning of spring from any number of starting points. But those who wisely refuse to wait for the equinox or last outfielder to book their flight will mark it February 19 this year. That's the voluntary report date for pitchers, catchers and an oft-overlooked third class of early bird: the injured player. They already have the disabled list, so we're not going to start calling mid-February the Festival of Injured Players Report.
Now that we're inside of two weeks before the ceremonial opening of Spring Training, it's worth giving the class list for major league camp a once-over. Although my research could be shoddy, I don't think I've seen this anywhere else.
I've coded the invites into four groups:
Italic, Bold and Red - locks to make the Opening Day roster, barring injury or trade
Red, Bold, plain text - Likely to make it
Red plain text - Bubble players
Black plain text - Little or no chance
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All told, there are 21 spots that seem 100% locked-up to me. On a standard modern NL roster, that's 10 of 12 pitchers, 6 of 6 infielders, 4 of 5 outfielders and 1 of 2 catchers - though the team looks poised to carry only four outfielders by adding Francisco. And it could possibly carry one less pitcher for the first week of the season or so.
WilsonValdez and Devin Mesoraco should probably go ahead and be #22 and 23, but I see some possibility (however remote) of a surprise move displacing them. In all likelihood, however, there are only two spots up for grabs if everyone stays healthy. And those spots are probably in the bullpen. They are also only slightly more open than Mesoraco's claim to the Ramon Hernandez Chair for Cooperative Catching - which is to say: nearly closed.
Logan Ondrusek and Sam LeCure have earned their spots in the 'pen, but it's not impossible that the Reds choose (unwisely) to use LeCure for starting pitching depth or that Logan's health and/or a strong showing in Spring by a pitcher like Josh Judy lands 'seks back in Louisville.
Full roster after the jump.