Reds Offense vs. Cardinals Offense - 2012
by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 12:23 PM EST
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PrintContinuing our comparison of the 2012 Reds to the 2012 Cardinals, let's see how each offense projects...
One important caveat...
The following comparisons don't account for playing time. Players like Allen Craig figure to be a major part of the Cardinals offense, despite not being represented here. Likewise, for the Reds, Ryan Hanigan, Ryan Ludwick, and other "role players" will likely see significant playing time. However, in the interests of simplicity, I used only the players I expect to get the majority of the playing time at their respective positions.
Today, we’ll look at offense only. The following projections can be found at FanGraphs. I’m using Bill James’ 2012 projections for this exercise. First, let’s look at how the two teams match up by position…
Second Base
Brandon Phillips (2B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.334/.435; wOBA – .332
Skip Schumaker (2B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.363; wOBA – .309
Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds
Short Stop
Zack Cozart (SS)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .256./.306/.404; wOBA – .315
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270/.338/.394; wOBA – .324
Differential (wOBA): +.09 Cardinals
First Base
Joey Votto (1B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .310./.412/.547; wOBA – .403
Lance Berkman (1B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.396/.498; wOBA – .380
Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds
Right Field
Jay Bruce (RF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270./.349/.510; wOBA – .363
Carlos Beltran (RF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.369/.480; wOBA – .367
Differential (wOBA): +.04 Cardinals
Third Base
Scott Rolen (3B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .268./.338/.434; wOBA – .334
David Freese (3B)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .299/.357/.452; wOBA – .353
Differential (wOBA): +.19 Cardinals
Left Field
Chris Heisey (LF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 267/.328/.485; wOBA – .346
Matt Holliday (LF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .307/.390/.533; wOBA – .394
Differential (wOBA): +.48 Cardinals
Center Field
Drew Stubbs (CF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 258/.336/.403; wOBA – .331
Jon Jay (CF)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .287/.340/.414; wOBA – .328
Differential (wOBA): +.03 Reds
Catcher
Devin Mesoraco (C)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 262/.324/.457; wOBA – .332
Yadier Molina (C)
- BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.394; wOBA – .320
Differential (wOBA): +.12 Reds
Combined Differential: +.29 Cardinals
Summary: The Reds project to have an offensive advantage at 5 of the 8 position, yet the Cardinals project to be slightly more productive overall due to huge offensive advantages at third base and left field.
My take: I think these projections are slighly pessimistic with Cozart. While I don’t expect Cozart to be great, I do believe he can produce at-or-above Furcal’s projection. Likewise, James seems to be very low on Drew Stubbs. I’m expecting Stubbs to be at least as good as he was in 2010, if not better. On the flip side, I’m not as optimistic about Devin Mesoraco for 2012. I expect great things from the young catcher, but an OPS approaching .800 is a lot to expect from a rookie. I believe Mesoraco is certainly capable of that kind of year, but I find it unlikely.
For the Cards, I expect Jon Jay to be better than these projections suggest. James has Jay's SLG and OBP below his career average. Conversely, I'd be surprised if David Freese put up these numbers. I expect a slight regression from Freese in the power department, and overall wOBA slightly under his 2011 numbers.
Your thoughts?
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Thanks for continuing with these
I think you have a pretty fair assessment of the projections.’
- I don’t think there’s any reason to think Cozart will outperform the projection given for Furcal in his first full season while returning from an injury (though of course Furcal could easily underperform his own projection).
- I’d take that projection from Rolen in a heartbeat, ditto Stubbs’ OBP. The Reds will be in excellent
- To a degree, I think BP is a changed man at the plate. I don’t see Schumaker gettin on base more than him.
- A lot of the comparison in offensive value turns on Bruce/Beltran and Votto/Berkman. Beltran is 35 next year, Berkman is 36. One of them could easily have a significant drop-off or injury. While I’d expect Votto to be around his projection, Bruce (at 25) could easily blow past his, with Berkman or Beltran hitting a decline. With other players (Rolen, Stubbs and Cozart the most tenuous), I think that’s the best scenario for the Reds to have a significant advantage offensively.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 3, 2012 12:56 PM EST reply actions
* "will be in excellent"
shape if they get that baseline production from Stubbs and Rolen
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 3, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
The bench production can be so variated as to make this an excercise in frustration, though
same with playing time. Beltran’s probably going to play at least 40 games less than Bruce. How do you figure for that?
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
Allen Craig
…would figure to get the majority of playing time when Beltran is out, and his projected wOBA (.362) is almost identical to Beltran.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
which I find hilariously hilarious.
No way Craig reproduces his 2011 numbers in a larger sample.
Tequila and pancakes, anyone?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 3, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
James’ projections do show some regression. Craig posted a .399 wOBA last year, James has hime down to .362 next year.
But I agree. I think he’ll regress even further than James’ is predicting. That dude was incredibly “lucky” last year
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Allen Craig is a for real hitting prospect
he could hit as well as BP or Bruce (in less playing time).
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Yeah
I’m a little surprised they haven’t found a place for him in the lineup. His bat looks really good and it’s not like he’s got serious splits. I assumed he was atrocious on defense, but he’s rated decently enough in all of the metrics. I’d take him over Heisey in a heartbeat.
Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I'm pretty sure they'll have a place for him
even if it’s a little bit of everywhere. I think he’s already looking at a spot to start the year until someone else gets healthy. But then, all of Berkman, Beltran, Freese, and Furcal staying healthy is about as likely as being struck by lightning, so he’ll get his reps.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Sounds like the Todd Frazier Story
Starring Allen Craig as T-Fraz
Scott Roland should retire tomorrow.
No, Craig is going to get all sorts of extended chances
that Frazier never will.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Projectin' is an exercise in frustration for that reason and others
But I think you can take a lunge at what the rate states will be for each position, weigh the upside and injury risk and say “advantage: this team.”
Benches are pretty similar generally, but prospects-in-waiting are not. So you have to weighlikely replacements along with the injury risk. Taken with the weaknesses in the projection models sid mentions, it’s a lot of moving targets.
Mgr., Red Reporter
"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Feb 3, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed
- I think Cozart has more power than these projections suggests. I’m expecting a SLG about 30 points higher than James projects.
- With Rolen, I’d be happy with those projections. For Stubbs, I’m not expecting a huge improvement in OBP, but I think his power will return. His HR/FB rate dropped dramatically last year. I think, given a full season, Stubbs will be over the 20 HR mark again in 2012
- Yeah, I really think Berkman will regress quite a bit. And Bruce could very easily have a breakout year, similar to Votto in 2008
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
I think that projection looks just about right for Cozart
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Caveat
The Bill James projections ignore minor league stats, so a guy like Cozart is regressed almost completely to similar players (and guys who debut at 26 and only have a fistful of PAs aren’t going to look very good). While “completely worthless” might be too strong of a statement, any projection for Cozart that ignores his minor league numbers is >99% worthless. The same is true of Heisey.
The bigger caveat, though, is that any of these projection systems have a pretty wide margin for error even for veterans.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Forcasting
Here’s an excellent article on forcasting; it’s from ’06 but it still holds true.
How do I know this? Because Marcel is still about as accurate as any other forcasting system.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Poo poo the party why don't you...
True… these projections, along with nearly all projections, will likely turn out to be inaccurate – especially at the individual player level. But I think if you look at the large picture for each team, these projections will wind up fairly accurate.
And either way, it’s kind of fun to see how various formulas project these players.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
No doubt
They’re fun to look at, and do give you an idea of who’s likely to be better. But even if they’re statistically accurate (which they aren’t, particularly) the margins of error make them worthless….but still fun.
It’s also true that if you look at larger groups the forcasts will become more accurate, but on a team level that’s true because teams will tend towards the average all the players. You still don’t know which players the projections will miss on and that could be significant, especially at the upper end – if Berkman (who’s old, paid a ton of money, and projected to be very good) doens’t meet his projection, it’ll severely hurt the team; if Cozart (who has options and isn’t likely to be a world-beater anyway) doesn’t, the Reds can plug in someone else and it won’t affect the team projection much.
"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"
Good point
Can we all agree that either Berkman or Beltran will fall short of his projection, if not both?
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Stank you, smelly much!
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 3:55 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
we need to swap in Juan Francisco for Scott Rolen
then we can go from – 19 to +19 at 3rd base
:-)
I hate it when Ephram uses data & facts to refute my unfounded opinions....No chocolate chip cookies for him!!!
he's not a pariah
he’s anathema.
Get it straight, Slyde. You’re the writer.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Are they basically two words that mean the same thing?
Isn’t that what writers do?
Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
great, now you hate me too.
That means we have two athemas around here now.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
Keep firing, anathemas!
I hate it when Ephram uses data & facts to refute my unfounded opinions....No chocolate chip cookies for him!!!
Move over, Gozer.
You’re just another athema.
Me and ephram are no indefinite-article athemas, we’re the real deal.
"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville
This thread makes me want an enema.
Tequila and pancakes, anyone?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 4, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
That can be arranged
Hey, I saw on the news that CO is getting killed with snow right now, how you doing out there?
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
the final verdict was 22.7 inches.
It’s been a blast to mess around in, too.
Tequila and pancakes, anyone?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Feb 6, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
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