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Reds Offense vs. Cardinals Offense - 2012

Continuing our comparison of the 2012 Reds to the 2012 Cardinals, let's see how each offense projects...

One important caveat...

The following comparisons don't account for playing time. Players like Allen Craig figure to be a major part of the Cardinals offense, despite not being represented here. Likewise, for the Reds, Ryan Hanigan, Ryan Ludwick, and other "role players" will likely see significant playing time. However, in the interests of simplicity, I used only the players I expect to get the majority of the playing time at their respective positions.

Today, we’ll look at offense only. The following projections can be found at FanGraphs. I’m using Bill James’ 2012 projections for this exercise. First, let’s look at how the two teams match up by position…

Second Base

Brandon Phillips (2B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.334/.435; wOBA – .332

Skip Schumaker (2B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.363; wOBA – .309

Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds

Short Stop

Zack Cozart (SS)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .256./.306/.404; wOBA – .315

Raphael Furcal

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270/.338/.394; wOBA – .324

Differential (wOBA): +.09 Cardinals

First Base

Joey Votto (1B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .310./.412/.547; wOBA – .403

Lance Berkman (1B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.396/.498; wOBA – .380

Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds

Right Field

Jay Bruce (RF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270./.349/.510; wOBA – .363

Carlos Beltran (RF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.369/.480; wOBA – .367

Differential (wOBA): +.04 Cardinals

Third Base

Scott Rolen (3B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .268./.338/.434; wOBA – .334

David Freese (3B)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .299/.357/.452; wOBA – .353

Differential (wOBA): +.19 Cardinals

Left Field

Chris Heisey (LF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 267/.328/.485; wOBA – .346

Matt Holliday (LF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .307/.390/.533; wOBA – .394

Differential (wOBA): +.48 Cardinals

Center Field

Drew Stubbs (CF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 258/.336/.403; wOBA – .331

Jon Jay (CF)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .287/.340/.414; wOBA – .328

Differential (wOBA): +.03 Reds

Catcher

Devin Mesoraco (C)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 262/.324/.457; wOBA – .332

Yadier Molina (C)

  • BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.394; wOBA – .320

Differential (wOBA): +.12 Reds

Combined Differential: +.29 Cardinals

Summary: The Reds project to have an offensive advantage at 5 of the 8 position, yet the Cardinals project to be slightly more productive overall due to huge offensive advantages at third base and left field.

My take: I think these projections are slighly pessimistic with Cozart. While I don’t expect Cozart to be great, I do believe he can produce at-or-above Furcal’s projection. Likewise, James seems to be very low on Drew Stubbs. I’m expecting Stubbs to be at least as good as he was in 2010, if not better. On the flip side, I’m not as optimistic about Devin Mesoraco for 2012. I expect great things from the young catcher, but an OPS approaching .800 is a lot to expect from a rookie. I believe Mesoraco is certainly capable of that kind of year, but I find it unlikely.

For the Cards, I expect Jon Jay to be better than these projections suggest. James has Jay's SLG and OBP below his career average. Conversely, I'd be surprised if David Freese put up these numbers. I expect a slight regression from Freese in the power department, and overall wOBA slightly under his 2011 numbers.

Your thoughts?

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