Do the Reds make the playoffs in 2012....an unusual approach to predicting it

by ephram on Feb 2, 2012 9:57 AM EST

So what will it take for them to make the playoffs?

Looking at their history (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/) from 1995-2011, comparing runs scored differential vs. playoff appearnces (since 1995 was about the wildcard implementation)

1995 +124 1st place lost NLCS 0-4

1996 + 5 3rd place

1997 -113 3rd place

1998 - 10 4th place

1999 +154 2nd place lost WC play-in game

2000 + 60 2nd place

2001 -115 5th place

2002 - 65 3rd place

2003 -188 5th place

2004 -157 4th place

2005 - 79 5th place

2006 - 52 3rd place

2007 - 70 5th place

2008 - 96 5th place

2009 - 50 4th place

2010 +105 1st place lost NLDS 0-3

2011 + 15 3rd place

So it looks like they need to get about a +100 run differential for the season to make it into the playoffs.

Last year they scored 735 and gave up 720.

If you figure that Latos replaces Volquez/Willis, Volquez/WIllis gave up 114 runs. Latos gave up 82 runs. If you bump Latos 10% for the switch to GABP, that puts Latos at 90 runs. 90-114 is a reduction of 24 runs from last year.

Cordero & Madson had nearly identical ERA's, so no change there. Marshall is a mid 2.50 ERA guy, He will push everybody down the chain, so assume he replaces a 4.50 ERA. Over 75 innings that means a reduction of 17 runs for the season.

If you assume Cueto has his ERA rise a bit, becuase sustaining a 2.30 ERA for 2 seasons is hard, but if you assume Leake & Bailey get a little better those cancel out. If you assume Arroyo gets better and drops his ERA back to his 2008~2010 level, that's a reduction of another 15 runs.

720-24-17-15=664

Their runs scored probably don't change much from 2011. If anything it may get a little worse, so let's guess it drops from 735 to 730.

So 730-664 = 66 run differential. Good enough, historically, for 2nd place. If the Poo Holes & Fielder defections from the NL Central weaken the competition, then 66 runs might be good enough to win the division. Maybe.

Poll

The take presented on this post was

Pointless.....Latos, Madson, Marshall....need i say more?

14 votes

Interesting.....but we're in the World Series, no doubts

4 votes

Interesting....i think we maybe make a playoff/wildcard spot, but not easily

40 votes

Who cares. I'm still bummed Ronald Torreyes got traded away. I better at least get some choc chip cookies!

6 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

50/50

The Cards are better than we Reds fans think. But Mgr and PC are gone, which is a good thing

Buy RED: My Uncensored Life in Rock by Sammy Hagar, today

by obc2 on Feb 2, 2012 10:34 AM EST reply actions

Berkman posted the highest OPS+ of his career last year, there's 0% chance of that happening this year

That along with Wainwright being fresh off TJ and losing Pujols, TLR, and Duncan makes for a weak team in my opinion.

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Feb 2, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

They aren't weak, I'm sure of that

whether you think they are the front-runner is up for debate, but not weak

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Feb 2, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

I should have said weaker, but I still think they'll finish with about 84 wins

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Feb 2, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

I think that about the Cards just about every year

and they always do better!

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Feb 2, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

Same

Yet somehow, TLR was viewed as a bad manager.

The loss of TLR/Duncan gives me the greatest hope for this season.

by ken on Feb 3, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions

That's the biggie for me as well, those dudes are witches

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Feb 3, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

I want cookies, dammit.

by crolfer on Feb 2, 2012 11:04 AM EST reply actions

.....

Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun

@btcoop71

by btcoop71 on Feb 2, 2012 11:05 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

That clown is smiling like a donut!

by crolfer on Feb 2, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

I agree, but . . .

by FordhamRam on Feb 2, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

I see your logic, however...

Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun

@btcoop71

by btcoop71 on Feb 2, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

I still don't think you're following what I'm saying.

by FordhamRam on Feb 2, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Indeed!

(Actually, this is my dog)

by crolfer on Feb 2, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

...

Dayman, Fighter of the Nightman, Champion of the Sun

@btcoop71

by btcoop71 on Feb 2, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

well

she used to be able to talk

Go Reds!
(and gooooo krogering)

by supergrover on Feb 3, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Now she runs the Helen Keller twitter account

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Feb 3, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This just in:

Helen Keller – Still Dead.

Scott Roland should retire tomorrow.

by Madville on Feb 3, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This just in:

Madville writes the same 5 comments over and over again.

"You know when I'm done ranting about elite power that rules the planet under a totalitarian government that uses the media in order to keep people stupid, my throat gets parched. That's why I drink Orange Drink".-Bill Hicks

by Yossarian22 on Feb 3, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

blow me

Operation: 'tHan's Awesome Plan is living up to its name.

by 'tHan on Feb 3, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

I don't know if you are defending or attacking Madville!

by Yossarian22 on Feb 3, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

tHan's just having fun...you should try it sometime...

Scott Roland should retire tomorrow.

by Madville on Feb 4, 2012 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs

rec'd

Operation: 'tHan's Awesome Plan is living up to its name.

by 'tHan on Feb 4, 2012 8:19 AM EST up reply actions

Pussy for breakfast?

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
Crum-Bum Beat

by -ManBearPig on Feb 2, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

in the last 10 years, 14 NL Central teams have posted a run diff of +66 or better...

10 of those 14 made the playoffs. Given that sort of success rate and the overall weakness of the division, I have to think that +66 should be enough to win the division this year.

by ClayMC on Feb 3, 2012 9:39 AM EST reply actions

furthermore,

3 of the 4 teams that didn’t make the playoffs were part of the absolutely stacked divisions of 2003 and 2004. 2004’s Chicago Cubs would have made the playoffs any other year (124 run differential!) if the Cardinals and Astros weren’t similarly as strong (196, +105 respectively). But with only 1 wild card slot, they didn’t make the cut. I really, really doubt we’ll run into a similar situation this year, lol. I’d give the Reds a 90% chance of making the playoffs if they post a +66.

by ClayMC on Feb 3, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

thanks for doing the extra digging that i didn't bother to do

i like it. if +66 gets one in from our division, then that’s a good sign for 2012.

I hate it when Ephram uses data & facts to refute my unfounded opinions....No chocolate chip cookies for him!!!

by ephram on Feb 3, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

think ClayMC has something there...

this is an interesting way to peer into the possibilities…it also points out, glaringly, something that i’ve ranted about since before it actually happened…i was totally against that trade bringing junior here…loved him, and his dad is a hero of mine, but i thought it was totally stupid…so take a look at the ‘griffey, jr. decade’, where the negative run results would seem to prove what i said then and still say…1999 was a ‘cinderella year’, and our glaring need was pitching, in actuality an entirely new staff…lol…but no, let’s bring in this wonderful superstar, ‘put butts in seats’ and cheer to some mega-run production…uh huh…hey, i only point this out now for this reason…we’re going to hear how we need to do this or that offensively, use this guy, get someone to replace that guy, whatever…and i agree, the reds have some questions offensively…but the real question is the pitching, and most of us see it as being pretty good if what we have shows up like we think it should…and really, this is at least half of that run-differential thing, too since we’re actually talking about the reds outscoring whatever our staff holds the opposition to…

by alcory11 on Feb 4, 2012 8:51 AM EST reply actions

oh, 1 disturbing thing i just noticed

In the last 17 years, the Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 postseason games. ouch!

I hate it when Ephram uses data & facts to refute my unfounded opinions....No chocolate chip cookies for him!!!

by ephram on Feb 4, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Not to worry!

They are 9-0 in World Series games!

All we gotta do is scrape through to the finals, then we got this thing.

"The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

by bbjones on Feb 4, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions