So what will it take for them to make the playoffs?
Looking at their history (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/) from 1995-2011, comparing runs scored differential vs. playoff appearnces (since 1995 was about the wildcard implementation)
1995 +124 1st place lost NLCS 0-4
1996 + 5 3rd place
1997 -113 3rd place
1998 - 10 4th place
1999 +154 2nd place lost WC play-in game
2000 + 60 2nd place
2001 -115 5th place
2002 - 65 3rd place
2003 -188 5th place
2004 -157 4th place
2005 - 79 5th place
2006 - 52 3rd place
2007 - 70 5th place
2008 - 96 5th place
2009 - 50 4th place
2010 +105 1st place lost NLDS 0-3
2011 + 15 3rd place
So it looks like they need to get about a +100 run differential for the season to make it into the playoffs.
Last year they scored 735 and gave up 720.
If you figure that Latos replaces Volquez/Willis, Volquez/WIllis gave up 114 runs. Latos gave up 82 runs. If you bump Latos 10% for the switch to GABP, that puts Latos at 90 runs. 90-114 is a reduction of 24 runs from last year.
Cordero & Madson had nearly identical ERA's, so no change there. Marshall is a mid 2.50 ERA guy, He will push everybody down the chain, so assume he replaces a 4.50 ERA. Over 75 innings that means a reduction of 17 runs for the season.
If you assume Cueto has his ERA rise a bit, becuase sustaining a 2.30 ERA for 2 seasons is hard, but if you assume Leake & Bailey get a little better those cancel out. If you assume Arroyo gets better and drops his ERA back to his 2008~2010 level, that's a reduction of another 15 runs.
Their runs scored probably don't change much from 2011. If anything it may get a little worse, so let's guess it drops from 735 to 730.
So 730-664 = 66 run differential. Good enough, historically, for 2nd place. If the Poo Holes & Fielder defections from the NL Central weaken the competition, then 66 runs might be good enough to win the division. Maybe.
The take presented on this post was
Pointless.....Latos, Madson, Marshall....need i say more? (14 votes)
Interesting.....but we're in the World Series, no doubts (4 votes)
Interesting....i think we maybe make a playoff/wildcard spot, but not easily (40 votes)
Who cares. I'm still bummed Ronald Torreyes got traded away. I better at least get some choc chip cookies! (6 votes)
64 total votes