The Reds' arbitration eligible players: Latos, Bailey, Leake and several dozen more

What's this worth? - Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

John Fay reminded us today that Chris Heisey and Logan Ondrusek qualify as "Super Twos" this offseason. That means they have enough days of service time above two years to qualify for their first raise. If you looked at their career stats, you might mistake them for regular, garden-variety Arb One-rs. But you would be wrong and an arbi-dummy for thinking that.

This isn't news, per se, but it is a reminder of how many players the Reds have to settle up with this winter.

The Reds have until the end of this month to tender contracts. Even though there's reasonable doubt, I think Wilson Valdez is likely to be non-tendered. Bill Bray is probably 50-50. MLB Trade Rumors also lists Drew Stubbs and Logan Ondrusek as possibilities, but those seem like a remote possibilities, especially in Stubbs' case.

Drew and Logan both have options left, have been valuable to the team in the recent past and could remain useful is reduced roles. Stubbs in particular has trade value, which could increase dramatically if he can start hitting again.

Here's the full list of arb-eligible players. You can see how they fit into the payroll here.

3rd year eligible

Billy Bray

2nd year arbitration

Homer Bailey

Wilson Valdez

1st year eligible

Chris Heisey

Mat Latos

Mike Leake

Xavier Paul

Alfredo Simon

1st year eligible (Super Two)

Logan Ondrusek

Chris Heisey

Even without tendering contracts to Ondrusek, Bray and Valdez, the Reds are set to pay around 20% of their 2012 commitments to arbitration-eligible players.Another 32.5% goes to Votto and BP. They'll need to raise payroll at least slightly just to fill out the rest of the roster, so we can go ahead and say the arb guys and the team's two biggest stars are about half the payroll.

We're just going to have to see how much money is in the banana stand. But since Walt isn't going to be moving Joey, Jay, Johnny or Bronson, for obvious reasons, it's reasonable to expect that at least one of the players above will be traded.

The potentially cash-saving trade chips for the winter - who I can also at least kinda imagine the Reds trading - then are: Bailey, Leake, Arredondo, Stubbs, Heisey.

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