Today, I got bored after work and decided to look at the 2012 vs. 2013 payroll.
Minor league contracts: $2.4m
Total payroll of about $88.1m
Keeping in mind that payroll probably will not increase more than 3 million, we are looking at a $91 million to $93 million payroll next year. Of that, we have $74 million wrapped up in the following pre-existing contracts: Votto, Phillips, Arroyo, Cueto, Bruce, Chapman, Marshall, Massett, Hanigan and Arredondo. LeCure, Cozart, Mesoraco and Frazier still have options and would add about $2 million to that, for a total of $76 million
The list of players that are arbitration eligible, have options or are free agents are Rolen, Navarro, Cairo, Madson, Ludwick, Latos, Stubbs, Leake, Simon, Heisey, Ondrusek, Bailey, Valdez, Paul and Bray. Ohman and Smith are off the major-league books for next season. That means that to bring back those players, we would probably have to have a payroll of $109 million, which we all know isn't going to happen. Below I will outline what I think will happen with the rest of the 2012 roster, and what it will cost. I am doing this based on the idea that we have $17 million to spend on 11 or more players.
Arbitration numbers (other than Bailey and Latos) are about an 89 percent raise, which was the average raise last year for arbitration winners. In the past 16 years, the high has been (don't quote me on this) somewhere around 150 percent and the low was somewhere in the 70-percent range. Pitchers tend to get bigger raises than hitters.
Rolen $8.2m --> Gone as free agent, Frazier replaces
Madson $5.9m --> $2.5m buyout
Broxton $4.0m --> Gone as free agent
Bailey $2.4m --> Arbitration @ $4.5m
Ludwick $2.0m -->$500k buyout
Bray $1.4m --> Arbitration @ $1m
Cairo $1.0m --> Gone as free agent
Valdez $930k --> Arbitration @ $800k
Harris $800k --> Gone as free agent
Latos $550k --> Long-term deal (4/$32m) $4.0m
Stubbs $528k --> Arbitration @$997k
Leake $508k --> Arbitration @$1.2m
Heisey $495k --> Arbitration @ $935k
Ondrusek $493k --> Arbitration @ $1.2m
Paul $480k --> Gone as free agent
Navarro $480k --> Gone as free agent
This will put us at $93.6 million for next year's payroll at 24 players. We would need to sign a fifth outfielder (could be Valdez) or backup third baseman (to play behind Frazier). So we would basically return most of the same team, minus Rolen, Broxton, Ludwick, Harris, Paul and Navarro. I say we trade Stubbs, Leake and Arredondo/Ondrusek for prospects (frees up $3 million to sign a left OR center fielder). Sign a cheap 25th player (third baseman). Make Chapman a starter and have Hoover close.
My roster would be:
Batters (13) Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Frazier, LF, Heisey, Bruce, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Valdez, a third baseman, Phipps/Negron, Valaika/third catcher
Pitchers (12) Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Chapman, Bailey, Simon, LeCure, Bray, Ondrusek/Arredondo, Marshall, Massett, Hoover
I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on this. Also, if there is anything that is inaccurate with some of the numbers let me know. Sometimes there are conflicting reports. I rounded some of the numbers off as well.