Heisey: No reverse splits in minors

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 16, 2012 12:42 PM EST

There has been much discussion regarding Chris Heisey's inexplicable apparent "bizarro" splits in which he has recently hit right-handed pitchers much better than lefties, which runs contrary to logic, physics, and everything my grandpa told me while seated on a barstool.

While Heisey DOES have bizarro splits in MLB over the last two years, this is likely due to the small sample size of 150 ABs vs. lefties in MLB, many of which were compiled during a lingering mid-2011 injury where he was forced into the lineup while still hurting. Additionally, Heisey has suffered a .232 BABIP vs MLB LHP, which is CRAZY low.

According to FanGraphs:

The average BABIP for hitters is around .290 to .310. If you see any player that deviates from this average to an extreme, they’re likely due for regression.

To help us understand whether he truly hits righties better than lefties, it makes sense for us to compare this small sample size to another pool of information: his minor league numbers.

Using minorleaguesplits.com spreadsheets, I was able to get Heisey's minor league numbers from 2008-2010 (2006 and 2007 would not load for me, so I'm calling those irrelevant for simplicity/laziness purposes).

From 2008-10 in the minors, Heisey has 342 PAs vs. RHP and 104 PAs vs. LHP.

MLB AVG vs. RHP: .288

minors AVG vs. RHP: .271

MLB AVG vs. LHP: .180

minors AVG vs. LHP: .323

MLB OBP vs. RHP: .346

minors OBP vs. RHP: .314

MLB OBP vs. LHP: .248

minors OBP vs. LHP:.400

MLB SLG vs. RHP: .539

minors SLG vs. RHP: .452

MLB SLG vs. LHP: .300

minors SLG vs. LHP: .516

MLB OPS vs. RHP: .885

minors OPS vs. RHP: .766

MLB OPS vs. LHP: .548

minors OPS vs. LHP: .916

MLB BABIP VS. RHP: .323

minors BABIP vs. RHP: .315

MLB BABIP vs. LHP: .232

minors BABIP vs. LHP:.360

So while this glance is far from perfect, I think we can see here that what we have witnessed for Heisey has been a streak of bad luck from a BABIP perspective when facing LHP at the MLB level. Get ready for some serious regression in 2012, as Heisey will likely hit righties far better than lefties.

Now we know. And knowing is half the battle!

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Comments

Lefties in the Majors > Lefties in the Minors

Obviously that point is a “duh, that is why they are in the Majors” one, but I think the stuff of lefties in the Majors compared to lefties in the minors is a larger gap than the one of righties in the Majors to righties in the minors.

Another thing is that Heisey sold out for power as he got older. He steps in the bucket quite often now, trying to gain more power and get his hips rotating. That isn’t always a bad thing, because power is a good thing, but with Heisey it also leaves a large hole on the outside part of the plate that he struggles to cover. In the minors, he didn’t step in the bucket and was likely to cover more of the outside part of the plate (and lefties tend to have their pitches hit that outside corner more than righties do). I think that is part of why he struggles against lefties now and why he didn’t have such issues in the minors.

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by dougdirt on Jan 16, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I think the bucket-stepping is the main culprit

for the weirding of his splits. I was proposing a charitable interpretation, that the reason he bails out and fares better as a PH and against RPs is that it’s a confidence issue.

But it could easily be him hitting the quad-A ceiling and only being able to master right-handed relievers in the majors. If he corrected his swing, it could be a net negative – he makes better contact against righties, but diminishes his overall power.

Mgr., Red Reporter

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"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 16, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Should be noted

at least a handful of his starts vs LHP is because Bruce is sitting vs a tough lefty. This won’t explain it all, but a good number of his ABs vs LHP are against some of the best LHP in the game.

But honestly, I wouldn’t overthink 166 PA spread over 2 seasons. It could all just be noise.

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by Slyde on Jan 16, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

the BABIP thing is interesting

But otherwise, yeah, I think it’s quite possible that a player who could hit lefties in the minors might find it’s far more difficult in the big leagues.

Same thing happened to Andy Phillips. He mashed lefties in the minors, but had reversed splits in the majors. I think the big league scouts found a hole in his swing. He couldn’t hit the high and away ball from a lefty, and they took advantage of that.

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by BubbaFan on Jan 16, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

This is great digging btw, Petey

Mgr., Red Reporter

"Bootsy, you're a superstar right?"
"Twinkle, twinkle, babble."

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jan 16, 2012 3:39 PM EST reply actions

Thankies!

I got so fed up that I had to look it up. :)

The one outlying thing I see here is his MLB BABIP vs. LHP: .232. That number is CRAZY low.

How low is it? I’ll tell you how low it is…

Less than 250 times has any batter since 1900 had a BABIP that low for a full season. Only 4 times has someone had a BABIP that low in a full season since the 1980’s. Six of those seasons were by one-time Reds catcher Bill Bergen – who must have been one hall of a defensive catcher to average about 80 games a year while compiling a career OPS+ of 21. The Brooklyn Superbas even used him as their starting catcher in 1906 & 1909, permitting him 372 PAs each season. In ‘06 he had a OPS+ of 16. In 1909 – as their starting catcher – he had an OPS+ of 1. That’s not a typo, that’s a one. Needless to say, the Superbas didn’t finish higher than 5th in either year.

Interestingly enough, to digress into a whole other thing I found while looking, a number of these sub-.230 BABIP seasons are actually good overall seasons by solid players or even Hall-of-Famers who got walked a lot during an outlying unlucky season where they were still a vital defensive cog:

One-time ROY Curt Blefary had an unlucky .198 BABIP for the Orioles in 1968 as a rangy outfielder whose 65 BB and league-leading 8 sacrifice flies still earned him an OPS+ of 89 (115 for his career).

All-Star catcher Ted Simmons was coming off a 4-year stretch with the Cardinals where he slashed .298/.383/.506/.889 with a OPS+ of 142. But in 1981 – whilst making his 5th straight All-Star team in a strike-shortened season – he had a terribly unlucky .200 BABIP…a full 84 points below his career number. He still manaaged a 89 OPS+, and bounced right back the next year. He never had a BABIP below .233 in any full season before nor after. SSS victim. I’m so old that I once had a Ted Simmons catchers mitt.

In 1986 37-year-old former All-Star Dave Kingman started at DH for the division-winning Milwaukee Brewers. He had a BABIP of .204, but hit 35 HR with 94 RBI in 144 games with an OPS+ of 90 in his final season in the sun.

In 1975 a 38-year-old Brooks Robinson finally hit the offensive wall after an incredible career, but still led the league with a .979 fielding percentage, earning his 16th Gold Glove (more than any position player in history). He had a BABIP of merely .204 in ‘75, and it didn’t gt any better before he finally hung it up after 1977.

All-Star infielder Dick McAuliffe – rated by sabermatrician Bill James as the 22nd best second baseman of all-time – had an outlier year for Detroit in 1971. His .206 BABIP did not suppress his walk totals, and he bounced back the next year near his career mark of .264 to go along with his career OBP of .343.

Would you believe Roger Maris altered his swing so much in 1961 while setting the all-time single-season HR record that his BABIP was a paltry .209, the lowest by far in his career?

Others to have a single outlier season on this list include Carlton Fisk in 1985 when he won the Silver Slugger with a .808 OPS, Gene Tenace in 1974 (he led the league in walks), Vernon Wells last year, Mark McGwire before steroids, Gold Glove 1Bman Joe Pepitone in 1969, HOFer Leo Durocher in 1937, HOFer Yogi Berra in 1957, HOFer Ozzie Smith in 1979, All-Star Darryl Strawberry in 1989, HOFer Mel Ott in 1943, and our very own HOFer Joe Morgan in 1978.

"I think it's possible this could possibly happen." - Harold Reynolds

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 16, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

Question

What were his major league splits and vs. Lefty BABIP like before the 2011 injury?

What, me? Being negative? No. Never.

by Paul Householder on Jan 17, 2012 5:24 PM EST reply actions

He barely had 200 MLB ABs before 2011, so it's a really small sample size.

Also, I don’t have the dates of his injury. Perhaps someone lese can chime in.

"I think it's possible this could possibly happen." - Harold Reynolds

by PeteyHendrix on Jan 17, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

August 3 was the date of the injury, and it really is a small sample size

It seems he did a lot better overall (although I don’t know his splits) after he came back from the injury (.931 OPS in September) than before, so it doesn’t appear to be the injury that caused it.

What, me? Being negative? No. Never.

by Paul Householder on Jan 18, 2012 12:18 AM EST up reply actions