Farmers Only: Another season in the books
To mark the end of the minor league season, we're going to do something a bit different for the Farmer's Market today. Instead of 3 fresh and stale prospects, you'll get 1 of each, for each team in the system. Picking these was not about who was the best and worst player, but who improved or hurt their prospect stock the most. Since many guys switched levels at some point, players are considered for the team where they got the most IP or PAs. Also, it's late and I have school tomorrow, so no recap after the jump.
Louisville Bats (73-71)
Stock Up: Devin Mesoraco
This was a tough one, as Yonder Alonso and Dave Sappelt each improved their stock significantly. Still, even after Devin's monster 2010 many were questioning his legitimacy. You won't hear those questions now (except maybe from HLM). Devin is a consensus top 10-15 prospect and possibly the best catching prospect in baseball. At age 23 (and change) he became the youngest catcher to make a start for the Reds since 1991. And pretty much everyone expects him to anchor the position for the Reds for years to come. An excellent season for a future star.
Stock Down: Chris Valaika
This easily could've been Kris Negron as well, but since most prospect rankings never considered him much of a prospect, we'll go with Valaika. He's been on a steady downward trajectory since arriving in AAA in 2009, but before this season he might have had a future as a utility guy. Now, after hitting .261/.302/.355 in his third stint at Louisville, there's a very real chance the organization could let him go before next spring.
Carolina Mudcats (53-85)
Stock Up: Neftali Soto
Soto became the first Reds farmhand to hit 30 homers in a season since Adam Dunn did it in 2001. He hit 30 for the Mudcats, then hit another this weekend playing for Louisville. Because Soto missed significant time with injury, that meant that he clubbed those 31 homers in just 432 plate appearances, or a homer every 14 times to the plate. Soto is far from a perfect hitter, as he doesn't walk much and strikes out a lot, but 31 homers from a 22 year old is very, very impressive, and puts him right back in the mix of top Reds prospects.
Stock Down: Donnie Joseph
After dominating A ball last season and eliciting calls for him to be the team's future closer, Joseph consistently struggled in AA this year, to the tune of a 6.94 ERA and 30 walks in just 58 IP. He'll definitely get a chance to redeem himself in Louisville next season, but at age 24, and with the ceiling of a middle reliever, he'll be on the edge of non-prospect status.
Bakersfield Blaze (66-73)
Stock Up: Yasmani Grandal
Considering he ended the season going 6-12 for Louisville, it's easy to forget that Grandal spent the majority of his time this season in Bakersfield. But over the three levels (A+, AA, AAA), Grandal compiled a line of .305/.401/.500 with a ton of walks and doubles. He'll almost definitely start next year in Louisville, and will keep the pressure on Walt Jocketty to keep finding roster spots for the organization's talented young hitters.
Stock Down: Ryan LaMarre
He didn't have a terrible season, all told. His final line of .278/.350/.370 with 55 SB is nothing terrible, but for a 2nd round pick with supposedly good power potential, who also spent the year in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball, it is a bit disappointing. Some lists had LaMarre listed as high as #11 in the system coming in to the year. It's a safe bet he won't be that high next time around.
Dayton Dragons (82-57)
Stock Up: David Vidal
Another tough one. Juan Duran raised his stock tremendously by cobbling together an OPS of .792 with 16 homers. But he also struck out a whopping 152 times in just 104 games. David Vidal was consistently one of Dayton's best hitters, and could be in the top 10 of the organization. He put up a .280/.350/.498 line with 20 home runs, and reports on his defense at third base were good. Still young, he could begin moving through the system quickly and be another option at a position of need.
Stock Down: Yorman Rodriguez
Billy Hamilton had perhaps the most disappointing season from a hitting standpoint. But he also stole 103 bases and was worlds better in the second half, offering hope moving forward. Yorman was not terrible, but he wasn't great either (.254/.318/.393 line). Most importantly, he was hurt....a lot. This is the second season in a row he has missed time with injuries, and despite the tools, a lack of on-field production and seeming fragility is hurting his prospect status...for now.
Rookie Ball
Stock Up: Sean Buckley
Buckley must have been very concerned about accusations of nepotism, because this year's 6th round pick, and son of scouting director Chris Buckley, hit like a man possessed. In 253 PAs he posted a line of .286/.372/.550. Age, sample size, and league caveats all apply, but this kid looks like he can hit...a lot. Expect to see him in Carolina before next season is out.
Stock Down: Ismael Guillon
One of last year's bright young Latin pitchers, Guillon struggled in Billings this year. He walked 45 in just 58 IP and stumbled to a 6.67 ERA. He's only 19, and Billings is tough on pitchers, but he needs a much better 2012 to stay in the prospect conversation.
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Agree....mostly
Minor quibble with Valaika. He was horrible in the first half, but finished pretty strong. Don’t see him taking a big tumble down the prospect list; he wasn’t that high to begin with.
Agree with Vidal. He wasn’t even on the radar before the season. Josh Smith deserves a mention as well. He led the entire organization in wins, Ks, WHIP, and ERA. He gets into the discussion, anyway.
by poojols on Sep 6, 2011 8:48 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I gotta say that I think Valaika has secured what will be his role with the Reds thins year.
AAA middle infielder who can come in for a week or two and not embarrass himself. Still useful, but it is the Corky Miller career path.
by Eastwindquinn on Sep 6, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough on Valaika, although this site's fine readership put him in the top 15.
Also, he OPSed .657 in his third stint in AAA. He’s toast.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
he's powerless at the plate and positionless on defense.
That coupled with being old for his class, and he’s exactly what you said: toast.
Tequila and pancakes, anyone?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Sep 6, 2011 9:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah
I don’t think much was expected of the Lake Monster this year. And he did have a very strong August, which is probably what earned him a callup.
The Reds might boot him off the roster, but he’ll likely clear waivers. They’ll probably keep him around, as they did with Danny Dorn.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I don't know.
Our community rankings had him ranked 13, and national sites had him in the top 20. Now he won’t even be in the top 30.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I think it's just familiarity
His name was recognized, since he’d been around awhile and been called up.
I guess it goes back to the old question: what to weight more, ceiling or how close they are to helping out at the big league level.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
our community had some hits and errors in their prospect rankings
I read a comment of yours from last season that said either negron or cozart would be the reds ss by all star break.
Excellent prognosicating!
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
by Ewok on Sep 6, 2011 12:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's kind of the nature of these things.
There are always hits and misses by the experts too.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Yep
I had to stump for Duran to make the top 25 last offseason. This year he should easily be in there. And Yorman is driving me nuts.
(I was wrong on mo Sanford, j Ruffin and j roper. I thought they were stars)
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
And Cozart really should have been
but Negron was quite a miss there, nyc.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Would we rather have Drew Sutton,
who was just designated for assignment by Boston? Sutton (28) put up a 5-27-.295/.382/.476 line with Pawtucket. Valaika (26) was 7-37-.261/.302/.355 at Lousiville. In short MLB stints, Sutton was 0-7-.315/.362/.444 and Valaika was 0-0-.294/.333..471.
Defensively, they’re quite similar.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate Sutton's defense
I’m not a big fan of Valaika’s glove, but he’s better than Sutt.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
where in the world is anderson machado?
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
by Ewok on Sep 6, 2011 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, since you asked, Nashville.
He’s spent some time with the Brewers’ AA and AAA affiliates this season. Hasn;t done much.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is he?
I see his name in boxscores and wonder where he came from.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
Venezuela
He started out with the Phillies, and spent several years with the Reds, mostly in Louisville. Here he is as a Pirate:

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I considered making Daniel Corcino the "stock up" guy for Dayton.
In retrospect, he might’ve been a better choice. He had a fantastic year (139 IP, 156 Ks, 34 BBs), and until we see Robert Stephenson pitch professionally, he’s probably the organization’s top pitching prospect.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Yeah, I can see that.
I was thinking about national rankings too, particularly BAs, and BA had Torreyes higher than Duran last year, and without a decent year I could see Duran falling out of the top 30 completely.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Should be some fun off season prospect polls.
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
Someone to keep an eye on going forward.
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
Thanks to you and BK, 'creds, for the entire season of FO
This is easily the best prospect review I’ve seen on any site
There was something in the air that night, the stars were bright, Arredondo. They were shining there for you and me, for liberty, Arredondo.
by DTFH91 on Sep 6, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
indeed
they do a great job. especially considering how difficult some of this information is to obtain.
FO for feature of the year!
I hate it when I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not....
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Oh, well, thanks!
I couldn’t tell because much of this information isn’t all that hard to find.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
well there goes his plan for a three way
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
No, if they were married they would be arguing
AMIRITE???
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Shut up. You are so insensitive.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
by nycredsfan on Sep 6, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Only because you don't compliment me anymore
You didn’t notice when I got my hair cut last week!
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I told you you have a nice ass just yesterday
And all it is with you is nag nag nag.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
by nycredsfan on Sep 6, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Honey, you had a nice ass yesterday
Unfortunately, today
by poojols on Sep 6, 2011 12:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, I have the nice ass. He's a huge ass.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Eyewitness report from yesterday...
Phillips actually did notice the runner missed home and was screaming at Dontrelle and Mes to tag him. Stubbs had his back to the field, ok just kidding.
Guess this makes up for Phillips getting picked off by the Phillies in the 11th. Ok, not really.
"Live every week like it's shark week. And dress everyday like you're gonna get murdered in those clothes." - Tracey Jordan
by RedinWrigleyville on Sep 6, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions
Can they also just touch the plate or do they have to tag the runner?
by Cuetotally Amazing on Sep 6, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know what the situation was yesterday
But if it’s a force out (that is, if the bases are loaded) they just have to touch the plate. If the runner is coming home at his own risk (as I think was the case yesterday), then the runner must be tagged.
Disagree with Hamilton's stock being down
He was still a pretty raw talent at the beginning of the season, too. Yes, he had a lousy first half, but he hit .318 with a .387 OBP in the second half. Also improve his walk and strikeouts rates a little bit.
Considering how the season started for him, I think the Reds are pretty pleased with him.
"There's only one god, and his name is Death. And what do we say to Death? Not today!" --- Syrio Forel, Game of Thrones
Well, I didn't technically say that his stock was down. I said he had a disappointing offensive season.
Which he did. But I also think his stock is down, just by virtue of it having been so high last year. Some places had him ranked top 50 nationally and 2nd best in the system behind Chapman. I think it’s safe to say he won’t be top 5 this year.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I still think he'll be top 5 in the Reds system
"There's only one god, and his name is Death. And what do we say to Death? Not today!" --- Syrio Forel, Game of Thrones
by cesarhernandez on Sep 6, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe.
Mesoraco, Soto, Vidal, Grandal, Stephenson, and Corcino all make strong cases for being ahead of him.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
How's Vidal's defense been?
I vaguely remember that being the big question with him.
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
Vastly improved.
He might be able to stick at third, now, which is great because he’s considered too short for first, not fast enough for the outfield and doesn’t have the range for second.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I read it at like 9 in the morning. You expect me to remember it for an hour while I'm learning about sex?
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
Zach Stewart had a perfect game into the 8th inning yesterday for the White Sox
Wound up with a one-hit shutout. How did he get to the White Sox?
Looks like everyone who complained about including him in the Rolen deal can start complaining again.
Seriously, though, nice to see him have some big league success at last.
Molecular gastronomy can take a hike as far as I'm concerned.
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Sep 6, 2011 10:58 AM EDT reply actions
I was gonna ask this. Would we rather have Rolen or another roughly league average pitcher next season?
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I would rather have what rolen gave us his first year & a half here
anything stewart does from now on doesn’t count though. he’s no longer with the team we traded him to.
Yeah, I agree with 'than
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
Me too!
Playoffs for one year was a fine tradeoff from what we lost in gaining Rolen. If Rolen doesn’t play again, that was still worthwhile. Unless Stewart turns out to be Tom Seaver.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Sep 6, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, I just looked it up, and that was a crazy trade.
Jays trade Stewart and Frasor to Chicago for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen, and then package up Jackson with Mark R******ski, Octavio Dotel, 2-pitch-at-batterson, and 2 PTBNL to the Cardinals for Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet , and someone called P.J. Walters.
It happened over multiple days, but essentially, it was a three team, 13 player trade.
Listen to my grawling.
Tallet was released this morning.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Blue Jays are engaged in a very interesting remake of their lineup
Since the middle of last season, they have upgraded their lineup everywhere but 1b, rf, and DH, and their RF is the best hitter in baseball (the 1B and DH are productive hitters as well). They could potentially be above-average offensively at every position next year, with a megastar in Bautista and a terrific prospect at 3b in Lawrie (who they got from MIL for Marcum). The biggest question mark is LF, where they have a couple of so-so younger guys.
Unfortunately, the pitching. They remind me a lot of the Reds – they have plenty of young and semi-young pitchers, but with the exception of Romero (Toronto’s Cueto), no one has really taken off. At least the Reds don’t have to compete in that insane division.
Molecular gastronomy can take a hike as far as I'm concerned.
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Sep 6, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Brandon Morrow is a pretty damn good pitcher too
if Brett Cecil’s HR rate were more reasonable, he’d be as good as our rotation outside of Cueto.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Pretty much spot on with our pitching there
Outside the ever reliable Romero we’re something of a coin toss, sometimes good, sometimes bad. It’s going to be a year of interest ahead with our AA rotation (we skip Vegas in AAA for pitching) finally graduating to the big leagues but while we have numbers now, the certainties are not quite there. Alvarez is a step ahead having made the big leagues the last few weeks, he’s been our young phenom pitching prospect the last few years, he should probably be a keeper, beyond that though we have some maybe guys in Molina/Hutchison/McGuire/Jenkins that have the great MiLB record but less overpowering stuff. In the AL East they might not be enough but it sure beats the endless production line of #5 starters out of college the JP era used to bring us.
by TtD on Sep 6, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
a thread about the Cubs getting Votto showd up on BCB
one poster asked “would you trade Starlin Castro straight up for Votto?” and the reply was:
I’d personally rent a car and drive Castro to Cincy. Best wishes and a great career. But Votto likely hasn’t even hit his peak yet, which is downright scary.
Naturally they would want Votto, but there is no way Votto ends up in Chicago, ever, I don’t think. The idea of Votto in a Cubs uniform may ultimately bother me more than Votto with the Cards. On second thought, I think I’d have a bigger problem if the Cards got him
Pujols to the Cubs, Votto to the Cardinals would make me a sad boy
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Seriously? Castro straight up?
There’s probably less than 5 guys the Reds would trade Votto straight up for, and Castro sure as hell isn’t one of them
There was something in the air that night, the stars were bright, Arredondo. They were shining there for you and me, for liberty, Arredondo.
I'd consider it if they threw in a high ceiling AA arm
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
and I know that's not straight up, but I'm saying it's closer than you think
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
It probably is
I know trades never leave any side completely satisfied. I’d be willing to take a lot less than Bautista in a trade for Votto
I just have issues with Castro being the centerpiece of any deal. He’s still incredibly young, and he could still develop in to a .900 OPS shortstop, but as it is now, he’s a slightly above average hitter who doesn’t walk at all, and can’t play shortstop particularly well.
If we can’t get better players than Castro and a high ceiling prospect in a trade for one of the best players in the NL, I’d rather just lose him to free agency in 3 years.
There was something in the air that night, the stars were bright, Arredondo. They were shining there for you and me, for liberty, Arredondo.
Yep. There are a LOT of questions left with Castro.
A trade for him is trading for potential above anything else, and if I’m trading for potential, I want 2 or 3 guys in return for Votto.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Good lord
Castro is 21 and has averaged .300 BA over his first 1000 MLB ab. He’s gonna hit a shit ton. Votto was in A ball when he was 20, Castro was hitting three hunny in the show.
I’m not saying I’d trade votto straight up for him, but Castro does not have a capitalized lot of questions left with him.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
by Ewok on Sep 6, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure he does.
He rarely walks, and only hits for marginal power. If he never improves on either of those things, he’s about a league average hitter, which is fine for a good shortstop, but his defense at short has been very, very shaky so far.
So, the questions are will he walk more, hit for more power, and/or improve his SS defense drastically? (FWIW, there is talk in Cubsland of moving him to 3B)
I think there’s a good chance he improves on at least 2 of those things, but they are definitely still question marks at this point.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Further,
you say he’s gonna hit a “shit ton”. I agree that he’ll probably always hit for a high average, but if he refuses to walk and barely cracks double digit homers, his offensive value is going to be limited.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
He doubled his hr rate this season. At a comparable age Joey hit 17 HR in A ball
He’s not moving from ss, especially after the garza trade. Dude has a canon and good range. Many young ss improve their error numbers as they mature.
He’s a perennial all star. Mark it down.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
Castro is a player to watch over the next few years
Shortstop is such a sexy position.
It will get better.
I'm not as down on LaMarre as some.
I must admit, though, a .278 batting average in the California League is troubling. His lack of power doesn’t concern me as much, as it didn’t figure to be a huge part of his game. At worst, I think he still becomes a very useful fourth outfielder and there’s a decent chance he can be more than that.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
Did he suffer some kind of hand/wrist injury?
Yonder showed us what that can do to power numbers.
by poojols on Sep 6, 2011 12:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Broken thumb during his junior season
at Michigan.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Sep 6, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm encouraged by what we saw from Sulbaran this year and expect to see more improvement next season
Some names not mentioned here, but might become familiar next year:
Donald Lutz
Alejandro Chacin
Junior Arias
Devin Lohman (only because the organization really seems to like him)
Also, in a system without Mesoraco and Grandal, Tucker Barnhart would be highly valued.
by poojols on Sep 6, 2011 1:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Chacin is a good call.
Arias has had a tumultuous season, but he should get to Dayton next year. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in full-season ball.
Lutz is a bit old for Dayton. I’d like to see him pushed to AA next year.
I want to see Lohman hit anywhere other than Bakersfield.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Agree on Lohman
But the organization must see something in him. Last year they moved Hamilton off of SS so that Lohman could play there. They know more about this than I do, so I’m deferring to them on this one.
Lutz grew up in Germany and started playing baseball late. His chronological age and his baseball age are different.
by poojols on Sep 6, 2011 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lohman is definitely a true shortstop
He played at Long Beach State, which is a shortstop factory. And he was a third round pick, so it makes sense that they’d give him some credit.
But it’s telling to me that they moved him around to Billings, then Bakersfield this year to keep Hamilton at SS.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
The prize was gonna be one of Bruce's Player of the Month watches
But Hamilton stole it
I meant that as an exclamation
not as what you would actually win.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 6, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

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