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Farmers Only Farmer's Market: Dayton is heading to the playoffs

Yesterday afternoon, MBP and I had the privilege of heading up to Dayton on a nice Sunday afternoon to watch the Dragons take on the West Michigan Whitecaps.  Little did we know going into the game that their magic number was one at the time, and that upon winning the game, would be crowned 2nd half champions in the Midwest League East.  In fact, we didn't even know until the final out, when David Vidal made a tough play to throw out a runner at first, he hugged pitcher Daniel Wolford and the team rallied around the mound and jumped around.  It was then when we figured out that they weren't just really, really, ridiculously happy to beat West Michigan, but had clinched a playoff spot with a 43-19 record so far.  Here are some observations about the game:

 

  • Dayton's a pretty nice place to watch a ballgame.  Nice stadium, easy to see from everywhere around the concourse, and a good crowd on hand.  A far cry from the half-empty stadiums a lot of minor leaguers are used to playing in, I'm sure.
  • Josh Smith got the start, and was pretty damn impressive.  He's a bigger guy, and we couldn't see a stadium gun but it looked like his fastball was pretty sharp.  He mixed in a lot of off-speed stuff, too.  He was dominant, only giving up 3 hits in the 6 innings he pitched, with 6 strikeouts to extend his league lead.
  • Billy Hamilton didn't steal any bases, but really didn't have much of a chance.  He got on base a couple times (one beating out a grounder that he had no business beating out), and I can see why scouts rave about his speed.  He got picked off his first time on base and didn't steal the other time.  Oh well.
  • One thing that really struck me about this team is how short they are.  Ronald Torreyes is DRH short, Tucker Barnhart looks like a normal guy you'd see out at the bar, and David Vidal is listed at 5'11", but is actually probably about 5'9".  That said, all three of those guys can absolutely rake.  
  • Juan Duran honestly impressed me.  He was 2 for 4 on the day with a single up the middle and a homer that just about his the foul pole in LF (but cleared the wall by about 30 feet).  He's so strong that he almost went opposite field and narrowly missed a homer down the RF line too, barely foul.
  • Since a lot of the talk at the big-league level was about defense, it's worth mentioning that Duran was pretty solid in this game, to the point where it looks like he'll be able to stick in LF.  The most impressive infielder for me was Vidal, who made a couple of sliding catches and nice spin moves to throw out runners from 3B.  Torreyes was okay too.  On the other hand...
  • Unfortunately, Billy Hamilton's defense.  He had 4 ground balls hit to him (in my recollection), and bobbled two of them.  He made both of the plays where he had to move to his left, and completely shit on the ones where he had to go to the right.  No errors due to a generous scorekeeper, but I'm considerably less optimistic on his future as a SS after seeing him play in person.  Then again, he did make a great catch where he ended up in the spot where the LF usually plays, but his range on ground balls and his throwing arm are suspect.  Why hasn't there been any talk about trying him out in CF?
  • The bullpen was solid, as Pat Doyle pitched 2 shutout innings and Daniel Wolford pitched a scoreless 9th.  By the way, there isn't an anonymous Reds prospect having a better under-the-radar year than Wolford right now.  34 1/3 scoreless innings in a row, and he hasn't given up an earned run since JUNE.  That's crazy.
Anyway, let's look at the fresh prospects this week...

Up-arrow_medium_medium Ph_450172_medium Ph_519304_medium Ph_571740_medium Ph_571561_medium

Edinson Volquez

He's had quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts.  His control is better too, only issuing 27 walks in 80 innings.  I think we may see him again in September, whether we like it or not.

Neftali Soto

29 homers so far this year, leading all of the Reds teams and is now 2nd in the Southern League.  Raise your hand if you expected a breakout power year here?  We didn't either, but could he be ready for a big league role next year?

Billy Hamilton

Yeah, you know about the stolen bases (94 and counting), but he's OPSing .989 in his last 10 games.  A .500 OBP in that span for a leadoff hitter is pretty good too.

Tony Cingrani

As impressive a rookie ball debut as we've seen in some time.  66 strikeouts, 5 walks, in 40 2/3 innings.  A 1.56 ERA in 11 starts.  


This is long enough, so no stale prospects this week.  To the games after the jump...

Star-divide

  • Louisville lost 2 of their 3 games over the weekend.  They won 7-4 against Lehigh Valley on Friday.  Chad Reineke pitched 6 1/3 innings, giving up 2 runs and striking out 4.  Juan Francisco hit his 15th homer.  They lost 5-4 on Saturday, wasting a good start by Edinson Volquez.  Wagon pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 runs and striking out 11.  Chris Valaika had 3 hits.  They lost to Columbus 8-5 on Sunday.  Valaika was 2-for-5 with a homer and Kris Negron also went deep.  Travis Wood gave up 6 runs in 3 innings, so that's not a good sign.  Up next: Daryl Thompson takes on the Clippers at 7:05.
  • Carolina got swept.  They lost 12-9 on Friday, even with Henry Rodriguez hitting 2 homers and driving in 6 runs.  Cody Puckett and Neftali Soto also homered.  They lost 5-4 on Saturday.  Soto and Bill Rhinehart had two hits each.  They finished off the weekend losing 4-3 on Sunday, and the only good thing that happened was Neftali Soto hitting his 29th homer of the year.  Up next: Mudcats will take on Montgomery at 8:05.
  • Bakersfield lost 2 of 3.  They lost 7-6 to High Desert.  Chris Manno pitched another scoreless inning, taking his count to 13 1/3 since joining the Reds.  They lost 6-4 on Saturday.  Carlos Mendez homered.  They won 12-4 on Sunday.  Chris Richburg hit 2 homers and Mark Fleury hit a grand slam.  J.C. Sulbaran started, went 5 innings, and struck out 8.  Up next: Dan Renken takes on High Desert at 10:05.
  • Dayton swept their weekend, because they're a good team.  They beat Great Lakes 13-4 on Friday, behind a solid outing by Tanner Robles.  Billy Hamilton had 3 hits, and Chris Berset went 4-for-5.  Tucker Barnhart and David Vidal homered.  They shut out West Michigan 2-0 on Saturday with Daniel Corcino on the mound.  Corcino went 5 innings and struck out 6, only giving up 4 hits and a walk.  Hamilton singled and then stole second and third bases to take his steal total to 94.  They won 6-0 on Sunday, the details of which can be read above.  Up next: Mitch Clarke takes the hill at 7.
  • Billings swept their weekend too, to bring their winning streak to 6.  They won 11-3 on Friday.  Junior Arias and Danny Vicioso drove in 3 runs each.  Cole Green gave up 1 run in 5 innings.  On Saturday they won 3-1 behind what might have been the best pitching performance by a Reds prospect I've ever seen.  Tony Cingrani started and pitched 6 no-hit innings, walked nobody, and struck out 13 hitters.  Juan Perez homered and Ryan Wright had 2 hits.  On Sunday they won 9-4, and Ismael Guillon gave up a run in 5 innings.  Up next: Off day.
  • The AZL Reds split their two games.  They lost 6-3 on Friday to the AZL Dodgers, and had an off day on Saturday.  On Sunday, they won 4-3 behind a good outing by Joel Bender.  The local product pitched 6 innings, gave up no earned runs and struck out 8.  Up next: Dodgers again at 2.

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Soto's homer wasn't the only good thing yesterday! Henry Rodriguez was 2-4 with a double

His OPS is just about to crack .800. Another short guy playing well.

Seriously, I’d be interested to know if any other organization has this many short guys who are legit prospects. By my count, here are players under 6’0" who are real prospects:

Billy Hamilton
Ronald Torreyes
Daniel Corcino
David Vidal
Tucker Barnhart
Henry Rodriguez

Vidal is only 21 and only 5’9", but has 19 homers. That’s pretty impressive.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 8:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Me neither

The power that we heard so much about is definitely there. I hope he goes to Bako next year and rakes.

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Still, the strikeouts. Holy hell, the strikeouts

143 Ks in 97 games. He’s still really young, so he has time, but damn. He needs to make major improvements there.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or Steve

Wouldn’t want him to get shot

There was something in the air that night, the stars were bright, Arredondo. They were shining there for you and me, for liberty, Arredondo.

by DTFH91 on Aug 29, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

im glad he was included in RR top 25 prospects

The grassroots effort paid off.

Lotta whiffs are certainly a concern but Juan has had a helluva year.

"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"

by Ewok on Aug 29, 2011 9:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

RoTo is drh short, but joe morgan was only 5'7" (wink wink)

The radar gun is on the lf scoreboard, took me a while to find it also.

No Fifth Thirdburger review? Missed oppportunity!

"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"

by Ewok on Aug 29, 2011 8:58 AM EDT reply actions  

We were sitting in the Dragon's Lair, which is in left field so seeing the scoreboard was difficult

No signed stuff in the pro shop was disappointing, but they had the banners with former Dragons on it on the concourse. I’ll try to post a few pics I took of those.

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

its a great ballpark

I’ve spent a lot of time there (obviously) and I’ve always enjoyed it.

They usually have ridiculously cheap autos in the gift shop. We snagged a team signed Dragons helmet for $20 there earlier this season. The clothing merchandise, however, is very expensive.

"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"

by Ewok on Aug 29, 2011 9:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The most impressive thing about RoTo is he's getting on-base 40% of the time

while not walking very much at all. Dude’s got 88 hits in 61 games, compared to just 16 walks.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 29, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Lake Monster

homered last night. Again. He has 7 home runs this year…4 of them in August.

Valaika is on a roll lately. He’s hitting .330 in August, and OPSing .888. (Compared to .259 and .653 for the season.)

Travis Wood didn’t have a great outing, but it was really just one bad inning. One very, very bad inning. All the runs were given up in the 2nd. I think he was pulled after 3 innings because he was at 60 pitches. He was actually okay in the 3rd inning, but having been in the pen when he was called up, they might have thought 60 pitches was enough.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 29, 2011 9:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Hal

says Cordero wants to stay in Cincinnati.

I’m warming to the idea. There’s no one in house who looks like closer material, and buying someone else on the open market is likely to be as pricy as re-signing Coco.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Aug 29, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Or less. I've said it before, but I'd give him 1/$5 mil, with a team option for a second year.

Especially if it meant Chapman got to start.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe. Depends on if CoCo wants money more than he wants to stay in Cincinnati

That article makes it sound like he really wants to stay here.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd offer 2 years at $6 mil per year.

I wouldn’t go any higher than that. If his agent laughs about it then CoCo can go elsewhere. There is absolutely no reason to pay a closer big money. Go with the Billy Beane philosophy.

You had me at meat tornado. ~ Ron Swanson

by BigBabyBruce on Aug 29, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, he's making $12M this year

And his ERA is 2.43 and he has 29 saves so far. Strikeout numbers are down from years past, but his WHIP is leading the team at 0.971. He’s significantly cut back his walks, and that WHIP is the lowest he’s ever posted. It’s worth noting that he has less innings this year than normal, but his ERA+ has been better this year that every other year of the contract other than his all-star year (169 this year). Does that sound like a guy who’s about to take an over 50% pay cut to you? It doesn’t sound like that to me.

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

In a vacuum, I agree. However,

He wants to stay here. That matters. Also, he and his agent have to decide if they can get $8-10 million from someone on the open market. I’m not so sure he’ll be able to. What team is going to give him that kind of money?

And if he could get 7-8 million, is the extra 2-3 million worth going somewhere new? If it is, let him go. I want no part of paying him that much.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's hard to speculate now, without knowing next year's payroll or potential trade/FA targets

If the Reds can land a major rotation addition or a real LF, I’ve got no problems letting Cordero walk. But it’s a different story if they bring back the same team minus Coco.

by ken on Aug 29, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

a couple more seasons and coco might make the Reds HOF

The local community benefits by his generosity, I say bring him back.

"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"

by Ewok on Aug 29, 2011 10:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Which is great, but we just need to make sure the opposing teams aren't benefitting from his generosity

Coco is an interesting case to me. He hardly ever seems like a sure thing out of the bullpen, but he’s now among the all-time team leaders in most relief categories. Despite the largeness of the contract, it might be reasonable to say that it was a fair one. Or at least, he’s delivered about as well as he possibly could have.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 29, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Checking out his stats

He’s seven saves away from passing John Franco for second all-time in a Cincinnati uniform. He should be able to do that this season. Right now he’s 40 behind Danny Graves for most all-time. Assuming he picks up around ten more saves this year, that’s easily reachable with a one year extension.

He needs 18 more games finished to claim fourth place all-time for that category, leapfrogging Tom Hume and Pedro Borbon. It’s possible, though a tad unlikely, that that would happen this season.

He needs 23 more career saves to enter the top 10, pushing out Rollie Fingers. He has the second most career saves of any active closer, behind only Mariano Rivera. He’s a really interesting pitcher that shows the fun, and limitations, of counting stats.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 29, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I didn’t think there was a chance in hell that he would earn that contract, but he pretty much has.

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Aug 29, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

That depends on how you view pitcher value.

If you see pitching the 8th or 9th inning as inherently more valuable than any of the first 7, then maybe.

But in his Reds career he has thrown 267 IP of 2.96 ERA ball. That’s really good, but is it worth about $45 million? I’m not so sure.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Roger Clemens never got $45 million for one season...

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 29, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, monetarily it might not even out

But we were paying for someone to stabilize the back end of the bullpen. He’s always had more than 34 saves, and should reach that again, and had ERA+s of over 100. His worst year was 2009 when he had an ERA+ of 107, and his next worse year after that was 134. That’s pretty good. And he made an All-Star team.

The biggest thing is that he’s stayed healthy, and he’s been effective (without being a full-on shutdown reliever). As far as dollars equaling WAR goes, perhaps its not the most efficient use of a contract, but we asked him to be a good closer and he’s been that. We’re at least getting production for what we’re paying for, unlike someone like Griffey, who was good but played far too infrequently because of injuries.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 29, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could see him getting 2 years/$18 million from somebody

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Aug 29, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Man, I don't see that

Unless Mo suddenly and unexpectedly retires and the Yankees are left with a desperate search through the FA pool, seeing Coco as the only decent option. Even Ed Wade wouldn’t do that.

I could see 1 year/$8 million, or 2 years/$14 million maybe.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 29, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I almost didn't believe it when I saw it

People keep on talking about his “peripherals” being down, but the only thing that’s gone down is his strikeouts.

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Strikeouts are way way down

BABIP is WAY down. LOB% is high.

However, GBs are way up: it appears Bryan Price has been working groundball magic with some of out pitchers, and seems to be pretty successful with that too.

Still, he’ll be 37, striking nobody out, getting gruond balls and basically being effective enough. Sounds exactly like David Weathers, and no one in their right mind would pay $8+ million for David Weathers, or am I wrong?

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 29, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

The thing that scares me

is that he’s at the age where relief pitchers start falling off of cliffs. I think he could be reasonably effective for 1 more year, maybe 2, but there is a very real chance that he could turn into Trevor Hoffman circa-2010 at any moment.

It feels so nice to be back to normal

by nycredsfan on Aug 29, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

My sentiments on this reflect Slyde's:
The number one reason to bring CoCo back? May make the #Reds more comfortable with moving Chapman to the rotation.

Born Small... Now Huge... Winning... Bring it..!

by BomerHailey on Aug 29, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

rec'd, very very hard

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reds and Jays make a trade:

From Baseball America:
Cincinnati Reds
Released: LHP Philippe Valiquette
Traded: RHP David Johnson to Blue Jays for future considerations
Optioned to Triple-A: RHP Jared Burton, LHP Matt Maloney
Placed on 7-day DL: LHP Tom Cochran, C Corky Miller
Reinstated from DL: C Mark Fleury

   Valiquette since has signed with the Mariners.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Aug 29, 2011 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Any word on why Valiquette was released?

He was in the futures all star game last year.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 29, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

He throws nearly 100 mph heat from the left side,

but his secondary stuff never has developed to even be serviceable. Even with the tremendous velocity, Valiquette never was a strikeout machine, whiffing 284 batters in 356 innings for his career. The 7.2 K/9 wasn’t terrible, but add in 4.4 BB/9 and 9.6 H/9 and the prospect status isn’t nearly impressive enough, I suppose, to keep him on the 40-man roster.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Aug 29, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strange to see

A flamethrowing lefty get released just like thay.

"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."

by Cy Schourek on Aug 29, 2011 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Really pleased to hear a positive report

on Vidal’s defense. That was a big question with him coming out of junior college. He wasn’t tall enough to play first base, didn’t run well enough to play the outfield and didn’t have enough glove to stick at third. Even though he was regarded as the premier juco bat in Florida, teams shied away because they didn’t know where to play him. If he can stick at third, the Reds might have something.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Aug 29, 2011 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I saw a tweet somewhere that said Hank-Rod broke his ankle and is done for the year?

"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow

by jch24 on Aug 29, 2011 3:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Hadn't seen that, but you're right

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 29, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

That stinks

From the game recap, he slid into third for the final out of the game.

by ken on Aug 29, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

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