The Curious Case of the Unsigned First Round Draft Pick
by jch24 on Aug 18, 2011 2:50 PM EDT
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PrintMONDAY NIGHT, the only first round draft pick not to sign was Tyler Beede. Beede is a RHP from Lawrence Academy (HS) in Groton, MA. who decided to attend Vanderbilt and try his luck in three years. Yesterday Aaron Fitt from Basbeball America tweeted the following:
Just got off the phone with #Vanderbilt freshman to be Tyler Beede, who said the final offer he turned down from #BlueJays was $2.4 million.
Beede said his number was $3.5 million. "Life is not without risk, and I plan on working hard for three years." Good head on his shoulders.
Those tweets caused my head to explode, and brought a certain someone to my mind.
Remember this guy?
It also made me wonder, "What's been the eventual outcome of guys that don't sign when drafted?". In a stunning development I decided to take it upon myself instead of asking someone else to find out for me. Results after the jump.
Over the last twenty years a total of 21 first round selections did not sign with the team that drafted them.
In 1996 four of them (Travis Lee, John Patterson, Matt White, and Bobby Seay) exploited a loophole and became free agents ten days after being drafted thanks to their conniving agent. If you don't know who I'm talking about here, I give you a hint: His name rhymes with Hot Chorus.
Since those guys never really stood a chance of signing I've thrown them out and moved on with the other 17. Here's what I found, and my take on it.
1993 - Jason Varitek - C - Georgia Tech - #21/MIN (Drafted 1994 #14/SEA) - Ended up better than okay, having carved out a solid ML career, catching four no hitters and winning two rings.
1995 - Chad Hutchinson - RHP - HS - #26/ATL (Drafted 1998 #48/STL) - Made the Cardinal's roster out of camp in 2001, put up a 24.75 ERA in three games, then ended up being a mediocre QB for the Cowboys and the Bears before "retiring" in 2004.
1997 - J.D. Drew - OF - Florida St. - #2/PHI (Drafted 1998 #5/STL) - Ah, the infamous J.D. Drew. He ended up getting his money and has had a nice long career (even winning a WS), so I'd say it all worked out in the end.
1997 - Tyrell Godwin - OF - HS - #24/NYY (Drafted 2000 #35/TEX, 2001 #91/TOR) - Interesting story here. Goodwin played both football (given up after two years) and baseball at North Carolina while attending school there on the prestigious Morehead-Cain Scholarship. I would imagine that this fact heavily influenced his decision not to sign with the Yankees but considering he played a total of three games in the major leagues, that first round money's probably looking really good right now.
2000 - Matt Harrington - RHP - HS - #7/COL (Drafted 2001 #58/SDP, 2002 #374/TB, 2003 #711/CIN, 2004 #1089/NYY) - Drafted five times, never signed. This is pretty much the worst case scenario.
2001 - Jeremy Sowers - LHP - HS - #20/CIN (Drafted 2004 #6/CLE) - Here's our boy! After spurning the Reds and being drafted by the Indians, Sowers got his money but has not seen much major league success. Currently on the shelf after having rotator cuff surgery.
2001 - Alan Horne - RHP - HS - #27/CLE (Drafted 2004 #893/LAA, 2005 #349/NYY) - Spent three years in the Yankees' minor leagues, hasn't been heard from since 2009.
2002 - John Mayberry Jr. - OF - HS - #28/SEA (Drafted 2005 #19/TEX) - Going to Stanford for three years helped Mayberry move up nine spots in the draft, currently with the Phillies. Looks like it turned out okay for him.
2004 - Wade Townsend - RHP - Rice - #8/BAL (Drafted 2005 #8/TB) - Ended up getting his money, flamed out after five seasons over six years in the minors.
2008 - Aaron Crow - RHP - Missouri - #9/WAS (Drafted 2009 #12/KCR) - Instead of signing with the Nationals, Crowe opted to go the independent league route and was drafted by the Royals the following year, albeit three spots lower. The Royals converted him from a starter to a reliever and he's responded by going 3-3 this year with a 2.38 ERA and making the All Star Game. I'd say that worked out for him.
2008 - Gerrit Cole - RHP - HS - #28/NYY (Went to UCLA, Drafted 2011 #1/PIT) - Another success story, Cole just got an $8 million (!!!) signing bonus from the Pirates. Wow.
2009 - Matt Purke - LHP - HS - #14/TEX (Went to TCU, Drafted 2011 #96/WAS) - Purke turned down $4 million from the Rangers because MLB shut down their agreed-upon $6 million deal. This year Scott Boras somehow persuaded the Nationals to give Purke a ML contract worth around $4 million even though he had back problems and "shoulder soreness" and even visited Dr. James Andrews during this season. I'll go ahead and bet that this is a bad investment for the Nationals, but good on Purke for managing to get about the same amount he turned down two years ago.
2009 - LeVon Washington - 2B - HS - #30/TB (Went to Chipola JC, Drafted 2010 #55/CLE) - LeVon and his father accused the Rays of not dealing in good faith but I bet that #1 pick money looks pretty good now that he's hitting .231 at low-A Lake County and has been moved to the OF.
2010 - Barret Loux - RHP - Texas A&M #6/ARI (Failed physical, not offered contract, signed with TEX after being declared FA) - Loux failed his post-draft physical due to shoulder problems so his not signing wasn't a result of his stubbornness, just bad luck.
2010 - Karsten Whitson - RHP - HS - #9/SDP (Attending Florida) - Too early to tell obviously, but he WAS name a Freshman All-American.
2010 - Dylan Covey - RHP - HS - #14/MIL (Diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, not offered contract, attending University of San Diego and playing baseball) - Covey had a similar fate as Loux, with Type 1 diabetes showing up during his post-draft physical.
2011 - Tyler Beede - RHP - HS - (Attending Vanderbilt) - I still can't believe he turned down $2.4 million at the age of 18. I guess we'll know soon enough whether or not it was a wise decision.
At the end of the day, there have been 17 guys who didn't sign as first rounder over the last 20 years. The breakdown:
8 - Drafted in a lower position later
4 - Drafted in a higher position
1 - Drafted in the same position
1 - Became a ree agent due to a failed physical
3 - Still in school
What would you have done if you were Beede? I can't imagine any scenario where I DON'T sign my name for $2.4 million.
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Didn't like a gazillion (est.) of them get drafted in the first five rounds this year?
Listen to my grawling.
There is an awesome Pancake restaurant right near campus.
Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
by -ManBearPig on Aug 17, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I lived there.
No literally, I lived across the street from Pancake Pantry.
It was good. I put on weight.
Tequila and pancakes, anyone?
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Aug 18, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
You missed the part where I said 'hot' and 'co-eds'.
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
Lionel Pitchie
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by supergrover on Aug 18, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know you probably couldn't find this out,
but a more interesting study would be what they turned down originally, and what they eventually signed for.
To me, their eventual MLB career is secondary, because I’m not sure how much of a difference being in the low minors is to being in an elite college program for those 2-3 years. At the least, it seems like talent and luck will rise to the top regardless.
The real point isn’t whether Beede will make the bigs, but will he get paid in 3 years? I have to think the odds of him getting a bigger payday than $2.4 million are very, very low. Especially if hard slotting is introduced in the next CBA.
So, I agree. This kid is dumb.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I started to look around for numbers and quickly gave up
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Yeah, signing bonuses are pretty easy to find. Rejected bonus offers, not so much.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
The real point for Beede is about more than money, I would imagine
He’s obviously turning down quite a bit, and has to know that there’s decent chance he won’t be able to get that again in a few years. My guess is that he also knows there’s a decent chance baseball doesn’t work out for him, and since he seems to be an upper-middle class type (Mass. boarding school, Vanderbilt), he wants to make sure he doesn’t miss out on college. Yeah, it’s easy for us to say that he can always go to college if baseball doesn’t work out. But if you go when you’re 25 instead of 18, you miss out on the socialization that occurs when you go to school with your age group. That’s something you can never get back, and if you’re going to a place like Vanderbilt, the connections you build as an underground can end up being professionally significant as well as socially. When he said he values a Vanderbilt education more than the team’s offer, he meant more than the degree.
Good point
And just one more reason to hate rich people.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If Adam Dunn can do it
anyone can!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have to admit
The idea that one can afford to value the experiences of college as more than two and a half million bucks rogers up my sugars. I mean, my years in college were the best years of my life, but I would hastily trade them for that kind of scratch.
And besides, he can do both at the same time. He can play baseball in spring and summer and go to college in fall and winter. He could make it a stipulation in his contract.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
3-4 years in Nashville > a year in Ybor City, then Zebulon, then Fresno.
Whether its 2.4 million dollars better, I don’t know. But yeah, I can understand the interest as an ex-18 year old.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Aug 18, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I can certainly understand the allure of college life as opposed to the life of a minor leaguer.
I guess if your family is rich it makes the decision easier.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
But the rich family thing doesn't seem to be the determinant here.
He wanted 3.5 million, and got 2.4 million. So he did want more money. Maybe he is a secret Winkelvoss.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 18, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The rich family means
that the $2.4 mil isn’t a big deal to him. Any poor kid who was offered that kind of money wouldn’t be able to sign the contract through all the tears of joy. He’s rich enough that he can use it as leverage for more money, which is the telltale sign of a rich person.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 18, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
What I disagree with the most in this conversation is the notion of what he "should" do
When Kobe, Lebron, etc. all skipped college, there was a considerable amount of teeth-gnashing by those who thought they should go to college (an education is priceless, after all). But nobody knows what these guys and their families truly need or value. I say if the player wants the money, fine. If he wants to take a scholarship worth $200K, go to school with kids his age, and later avail himself to the benefits of an alumni network (which is particularly valuable to athletes), that’s cool too. There really isn’t a bad choice here. We should all be so lucky to face such options.
I used to be the in the same camp, criticizing high school basketball players for going pro.
But I’ve since changed my view on that—I think they have a right to exploit their own talent however they like, and that typically means playing while you are young enough to do so. The silly one-year rule is actually also very problematic; when the next Kevin Durant busts his knee in a garbage year at K-State, there will be a big outcry. Basketball especially, since 18 year olds can dominate (this is less true in baseball).
Each league is also different vis a vis guaranteed money, ability to reenter the draft, etc. In baseball I personally think the most “valuable” choice (both intellectually and economically) is to take the money when it’s offered the first time (the only guarantee) and get your education after or during, but I also take your point that the money diminishes quickly. That said, a million dollar (after taxes) “jackpot” at 18 can go pretty far if you take care of that money.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 18, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
This is where I stand as well
Pro sports are the only profession I can think of other than government office that says you have to be a certain age to be employed. In lieu of bringing up the military, I’ll go with this instead – Mark Zuckerberg launched facebook when he was 19 years old but a football prodigy has to wait until they’re 21 to enter the NFL. Doesn’t compute for me. The window to make money is especially short in professional sports, the earlier those guys can cash in on their talents the better in my opinion.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Couple thoughts
CA, I agree about the silliness of the 1-year rule in basketball, but very, very few HSers can come in and have an impact in the NBA. Even LeBron and Kobe didn’t dominate their first years.
The injury risk from the 1 year rule is there, but most guys improve their stock by going to college for the one year. What makes the rule silly is the mockery it makes of college basketball. (As if college sports needed help being a mockery)
jch, I think it’s a little bit different in football. Most freshman don’t even get to play on their college teams, and not even many juniors enter the draft. The years from 18-21 give kids a lot of time to physically mature and get stronger, which is super important in football. I think if you had HS kids going to the NFL, they would either not make the teams they were drafted to, or they’d literally get killed. Making them go to college for a few years is a good thing.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I think the free market would be able to take care of itself in this case
NFL teams know that an 18 year old kid isn’t going to play his first year, and most likely not his first few years. But instead of abusing the NCAA as a free farm system the way they do, the NFL would be forced to develop the prospects themselves. Teams would likely pass on most kids, who would then go to college to develop. But if a kid like, say, Terrelle Pryor or Jadeveon Clowney shows incredible potential in high school and a team wants to draft and develop them, then I think they, both the NFL and the player, should have that opportunity. That’s how baseball works, and it seems to do just fine.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 19, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
In regards to international free agents, I agree
but in terms of giving the player the most options to capitalize on their talents, it’s better than basketball and football.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 19, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah the international free agent system is inexcusable.
i’d have to think a bit on which sport is best for high school athletes.
i think even with the one year rule, the nba currently provides the most immediate money for a youngster
This is true, unless you're American
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
by BK on Aug 19, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
soccer goes, I think, the other way on the spectrum
culling a whole bunch of kids at age 14 in the hopes that a few of them will be worth millions is kind of iffy for me. You have a lot of kids who only barely have high school educations working for little, far from home who then turn into thirty-somethings working for little, far from home.
Much moreso than in the US, soccer is a lower-class sport in Europe. The English national team, for example, only has one player from a home in a higher income bracket, Peter Crouch. It gets into the same issue the Vandy thing does, I think.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Aug 20, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Lebron averaged 20.9 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.9 ast, 1.6 blocks his first year
That’s a line all but about 10 guys in the NBA would be happy with.
I simply don’t agree with the “the three year rule in football is to protect the kids!” logic. The NCAA and NFL don’t give one single solitary fuck if an 18 year old blows out his knee. The three year rule in football is there to protect the NCAA’s money making endeavor and to protect the NFL owners/GMs from themselves.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
'xactly
They have sweet little collusion agreement going on and honestly there isn’t a single thing that can be done about it. The NFL player’s union is probably the only institution strong enough to stand up to it, but they are already getting paid tons of money. There is no reason for them to stick their neck out for a bunch of kids, aside from ethics.
I suppose one day their could be a hard-headed 18 year old who insists on suing the NCAA and the NFL all the way to the Supreme Court, which could be interesting. But for now and for the foreseeable future, nothing will change.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 19, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It's already happened
Maurice Clarrett did it, and the SCOTUS refused to hear his appeal. Mike Williams had a case too IIRC.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
and neither one went very far
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 19, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not the point though
They should have the opportunity to fail or succeed, it’s the American way™.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
and I get that, on some level
however, it’s not in the best interest of the NFL to let a 13th grader try out
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 20, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If you needed any more evidence of collusion,
just look at the Terrelle Pryor news from yesterday. The NFL uses college football as a free farm system, the universities use it as a cash cow. I’ve never been convinced anyone is looking out for the athletes, at least not since Eric Taylor left as the QB coach at TMU. An extraordinarily low percentage of those guys have any chance to profit from their talent, but they are money makers. A talented high school football player should have the chance to cash out if he wants to at 18, knowing full well the risks. Any protection that comes from the few years players play before going to the NFL seems incidental to me, not systematic.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 19, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
If there were actually a system that paid college athletes
then I’d feel better about any three-year (or one year) requirement. At the moment they are just exploited labor. At least the minor leagues pay, even if it is modest—and you could enter the minor leagues with signing bonus in hand, thus a guarantee that things will work out okay in any case. Soccer is sort of insane for signing young kids, but at least they have some sort of security.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 19, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, well, LeBron did well. He's pretty much the only one though.
And I didn’t say the rule was there for the purpose of protecting the kids, I’m just saying that that’s what it ends up doing, which is probably a good thing.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
i don't entirely agree with this
like in the case of lance stephenson. no amount of time in college was going to help him.
all it did was hurt his draft stock & cost him money
Sebastian Telfair made the right choice, definitely
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
See below.
That second part was in regards to football. There’s so much development necessary between 18-21, and I don’t really trust NFL teams to wait until kids are physically ready.
I think if you saw HSers get drafted into the NFL, there would be a LOT of serious injuries within kids’ first couple years.
And yes, I know there are a lot of injuries in football anyway. But look at most freshman college football players and tell me they are ready to get hit by Urlacher or Suh.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
yes, football is completely different than basketball.
however, football & basketball are no different than real live. some kids just aren’t cut out for college.
I think you aren't giving NFL coaches and GMs enough credit
They know full well that 18 year old kids can’t play with the big boys. But if they like the prospect enough and the kid is eager, then they should be able to skip college entirely. Look, the Reds know Robert Stephenson isn’t ready to pitch in the big leagues. And they won’t even think of doing it until he is ready. The same would apply in the NFL. The upside would be that the NFL would have to establish it’s own development system instead of just using the NCAA for free. The bastards.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 19, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but that's easier said than done.
Said development system would be worthless if the kids weren’t playing in competitive games, but they can’t do that unless enough HS gets choose to get drafted. In baseball, it’s a lot easier for a 19 year old to play with 21-23 year olds if he’s physically gifted. In football, that 19 year old will most likely get crushed.
My concern would be that the “development” system would simply be extended camps, and GMs would in fact push kids to play with the big boys before they are ready.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Further, given the terrible way in which the NFL takes care of ex players
and the already high rate of long term problems those players develop, I’m afraid this would exacerbate the problem.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
If GMs want to protect their investment
they will do so. To me, this sounds more like a problem with non-guaranteed contracts in the NFL’s awful CBA rather than a problem with protecting innocent children.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 19, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that if there was a legitimate football minor league,
it would be better for everyone involved. NCAA shouldn’t count.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Aug 20, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Moses Malone, Dwight Howard, Brandon Jennings (sorta)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Sorry, mixing my points
The point about helping the kids was in regards to football, not basketball.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
ah, gotcha
I think Adrian Peterson, Marshall Faulk, Eric Swann (another interesting case), Mike Singletary, Lawrence Taylor, and some others I’m not thinking of could have pulled it off. I don’t think it would be the exodus that everyone fears. 99% of players NEED to develop, but the NFL/NCAA shouldn’t have the legal right to refuse employment to the 1% that can make the jump. In my mind it’s unconstitutional. (Yes, really)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Nah, that's a bit far.
There are a whole mess of jobs that have minimum age/education requirements. Are they all unconstitutional too?
It feels so nice to be back to normal
whole mess? The only I can think of offhand is holding office in senate and president.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Anything operating heavy machinery
Using a meat slicer in a deli
Joining the military
Then there are the education requirements for the rest of the world’s jobs.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
You have to be 18 (aka a legal adult) to do those things right?
The kids in question are 18 so that’s not an issue. The “you have to be 18 to do whatever” restrictions are a legal thing, since people under 18 cannot assume physical risk in the U.S. Also, you can join the military at 17 with your parents’ permission.
The education requirements argument is interesting but I’m not sure it holds water either. The NCAA/NFL aren’t mandating that you play for those three years so that you can learn more about how to do the job (like a degree or certification). The structure is only there to make sure players have to wait three calendar years after high school. It’s their way of forcing kids to play in the college system, and it’s bunk.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Yeah, I understand it's not exactly the same
But the point is, all kinds of jobs have all kinds of pre-requisites and requirements in order to get them. Apart from stuff like sexual orientation/race/gender, I’m not sure there’d be any legal ground for claiming unconstitutionality for these requirements.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I wonder if the NFL has ever taken federal money? Then the Age Discrimination Act comes into play, no?
Of course the way they’ll get around that is to say that they don’t mandate a specific age, only that a person be three years removed from high school.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
The age law applies to any employer
But it only protects employees over 40, which coincides with the life expectancy of NFL players.
The prerequisite to playing in the NFL should be "be really good at football", not "be really good at football and three years out of high school"
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I'm not disputing that as your opinion
I’m just saying that calling it “unconstitutional” is a big stretch.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
That may be the wrong word to use
But in my mind it flies in the face of the basic tenets of American society. Well, what they used to be anyway.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Exploiting the less powerful to make as much money as possible?
I’d say sports leagues still do that pretty well.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Hey, did you know water is wet? :P
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I was sarcastically commenting
on your “good ’ole days” comment about what the tenets of American society used to be.
IMHO, this society has always been about making as much money as possible at the expense of anyone else who isn’t as powerful as you. That’s kind of capitalism.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
whatever queer
(how is it that we always end up here?)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Definitely a good argument
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Aug 22, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Meh, you got me there
I don’t agree with that either, but I understand the reasoning. If you can’t buy it you can’t sell/serve it.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
piss poor phrasing on my part
I guess what I’m getting at is that entertainers generally don’t have age requirements. (Before someone mentions porn, that is the obvious exception)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Will you STFU already? You're not helping. :)
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
in all fairness....
The Champions Tour (seriously, shouldn’t you have to win to be on that, not just be 50+?) just wants to allow old professional golfers a place to play on easier set up courses so they don’t have to get their butts handed to them by younger guys who hit it farther and can post lower numbers.
Plain. And. Simple.
Some professional golfers can still play at an elite level into their late 30s, and early 40s, but once they hit mid 40s, they just can’t compete with “the kids”.
And, it’s a chance for fans to still watch their favorite pro golfer play for another 10+ years on The Champions Tour, while that similar age bracket can still compete against each other.
Worthless golf, if you ask me. Just make it purely an exhibition, since who really gives a crap on a weekly basis who wins a Champions Tour event?
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 22, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
There's an olympic sport where you have to be over 21?
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
They have age requirements
I didn’t say it was 21, what difference does it make what the age is?
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
To hold a seat in the House too!
It will get better.
by Yossarian22 on Aug 22, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Very late to the party
but I feel like it would be unconstitutional for the government to stick their head in and turn that over. The NFL had a system, in there mind it was producing sub-quality employees, and they changed their rules for something they as a company feel provides them with better employees.
There are also other industries with similar rules, some airlines require that their pilots be at least 21.
It will get better.
by Yossarian22 on Aug 22, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I like your sentiment but I think this is wrong.
This is coming from someone who has made a career of higher education, too, since I haven’t really left the place except for a few years post college and I probably never will leave if I end up teaching.
That said, I think with the assumption that the odds are very high that baseball won’t work out for someone, it pretty much never makes sense to turn down a large signing bonus. Let’s assume that a given player has two skills in abundance: baseball talent and intelligence. Baseball talent will likely decline while he is in college; it may not, but the odds increase that it will decline as the player gets older, right? (Injuries, for one. Bad coaching. Accidents, etc.) Intelligence is not subject to the same forces, If you have enough intelligence to attend college at 18, you definitely have enough to attend at 22 (I’d say you have more, typically). I realize that college is a unique experience perhaps best undergone at 18, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still a good experience at the still-young age of 21 or 22. Or 23, or 24. I went to college with some older kids, the differences evaporated quickly. And they were super interesting, so they got invited to all the good parties.
If you are good at baseball and have an interest in playing it (which Beede does, since he wants to play in college), then the wisest choice would be to cash out on it while you can. If it doesn’t work out, you have the money and still higher education. If you don’t like baseball and are good at it, then the calculus would change.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 18, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
All fair points. Couple of responses:
I do think that his collegiate experience would be significantly different if he matriculates as a 23 year-old with a screwed up shoulder. As I recall it the older students were definitely not in the social loop with their classmates. Might be different for a guy with his own condo and car, however.
Also, not to say that 2.5M isn’t a lot of money, but after paying Uncle Sam and your “advisor,” I would think the net is something like 1.5M. You’ll live off it for the next few years while your in the minors, and then figure you’ll need 200K+ to go to college later. So you’re getting closer to 1M. That’s obviously a lot of money, but it’s not necessarily setting you up for life. If you go to college and do well, and get a good job, it’s possible if not probable that you’ll be in a similar financial situation by the time you reach your late 30s.
I think the likelihood of going to college and then getting a good job are worse than becoming a successful starting pitcher these days
by Geki on Aug 19, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
another thing to consider
He’s obviously from a wealthy family. A couple of million just might not mean that much to him. For some players, a seven-figure signing bonus is a once in a lifetime payday. For him, I would guess it’s not. Massachusetts boarding school is more than upper middle class.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
If he had lots of family money it might make more sense, but I'm not convinced that we can assume that.
He went to Lawrence Academy for only one year, after public high school. He went on scholarship, and there was a fundraiser to help pay the costs of his summer ball (http://www.thedailyauburn.com/Articles-c-2010-06-13-68549.113122-Beede-fundraiser-successful.html). I don’t think he is wealthy.
You know what’s sort of interesting? His dad was also drafted when he was 18, and he only played 27 games before leaving baseball. So that’s gotta figure in there somewhere too. Either he fizzled out quickly or something happened, but he’s seen how short a career can be.
There are lots of ways to interpret all that. One is that his Dad has been there and has convinced him that there are bigger things in life than baseball. Vandy is a great school, maybe he wants to experience it as a normal college student. Fair enough. I hope it is that and not that his family is banking on his position increasing—that could happen, it’s definitely not a sure thing.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's some more
on Beede’s thinking. I wonder if the real issue was that he was drafted by Toronto and they didn’t like something about the organization. That’s fair, if they were really wowed by Vandy and felt their development plan was a good one.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 19, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Who knows, maybe his family is already rich.
That’s really the only logical explanation I can come up with.
Part of me is very angry at the kid and hopes he fails miserably.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Aug 18, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
$2.4 mil
And he’s a pitcher. I don’t wish ill on anyone, but I have to admit part of me secretly hopes he sucks in hi fi at Vandy and 5 years from now is folding shirts at Abercrombie.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 4:38 PM EDT reply actions
Someone should show him that Matt Harrington story
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Ha.. I didn't read this before I wrote what I wrote above.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Aug 18, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I was rec'ing this regardless...
But after checking the tags, the “Suck it, Jeremy Sowers” really earned it. Thanks for doing the leg work, boss.
i thinkg it would be interesting to look at
how the compensatory picks turned out. maybe the team didn’t mind that player X didn’t sign, because player Y picked the next year turned out to be great!
jch24, feel free to take this one upon yourself…
thing about those though is the team usually picks someone with far less impact ability
since the new pick isn’t protected with compensation in the year after’s draft. Due to that they need to sign someone they know is signable, and is often a guy with less upside than the original pick.
This is not always the case though, AZ made out pretty well with their compensation pick in this years first round (the Bradley pick). It would be an interesting study.
Harrington x5
That really is tragic. The OTL piece doesn’t go into details about the last three no-signs. After the first two, it seems impossible that he wouldn’t take almost any offer from the Rays, Reds or Yankees. He had no leverage and his stock was only going down.
"OVERCHARGE, v. To ask a higher price than you can get." -Ambrose Bierce
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Aug 18, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions
Seems like any first round player who has plans to play baseball should take the chance when it comes.
It’s a bit like hitting the lottery. Most of the best players were not drafted in the first round and never got that payday, so if you do get that chance you better move on it while you can. 2-3 million can cover a lot of the rest of your life if you invest and spend it wisely.
by Cuetotally Amazing on Aug 18, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Its interesting to compare this to the Todd Coffey scenario
he took his low-round draft into an excuse to get LASIK, get into shape, and turn is life around. I think he’d be a fun book chapter when I write my Great American Baseball Book one day.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Aug 20, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
round is technically a shape
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 22, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I refuse to watch shows that 'tHan likes
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 24, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
so you watch the good shows.
It will get better.
by Yossarian22 on Aug 24, 2011 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I say this lovingly
you shut your whore mouth
The ends justify the means
by Highlifeman21 on Aug 25, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I hadn't read about that before
the Reds drafted him too. I’m reading that piece jch linked and I still can’t believe he never took one of those deals.
When I was researching these guys that story stopped me dead in my tracks
It sounds like really bad advice and stubbornness on their part really screwed them over. At least they were smart enough to take out the insurance policy.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
yeah
I was trying to imagine what kind of thinking led to that, but none of it makes sense. Admittedly, I do not have all the details of the contract offers, but it just seems completely irrational
Posnanski wrote about him, from the point of view of his agent.
They were both convinced he could keep on raring it back, get back up into the mid-90s. But he couldn’t. It’s an interesting story, even if he stole jch’s headline.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Aug 20, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Bauer is another guy that won't show up in the research but fits
From what I read about him in an SI article, it sounded like he graduated HS early in order to skip the daft and go straight to college since teams wouldn’t like his workout routine (if you didn’t hear about it, he openly told teams not to draft him if they wanted to change his long-toss program, as most teams do). He likely would have been drafted pretty high, but not 3rd overall if he went into the draft as a highschooler.
It was an interesting article, Bauer is like the Joey Votto of pitching, in that he is near-unhealthily obsessed with improving and working on his pitching. The thing he was most excited to buy with his signing bonus? A video camera that he could use to see his throwing motion in super slow motion.
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