Big Z, Dusty Baker, and the Reds Lack of an Ace

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 12:13 PM EDT

This is probably a terrible idea but.... The Cubs are desperate to unload Carlos Zambrano, the Reds need an ace. While Zambrano has proven to be nothing more than a first prize asshole for a few years, he still is capable of greatness. While he has always been known as a bit of a headcase the worst incidents; punching his teammate, screaming at Derrek Lee, and last night have all occurred since Dusty Baker left Chicago.

Dusty Baker may not be the greatest manager for all situations, yet he seemed to have no major issues with Carlos Zambrano, which cannot be said about Lou Pinella or Mike Quade. I think Dusty's soft approach works well with Zambrano; Dusty probably realizes Z has a million dollar arm, a 10 cent head, and really should be left alone.

Zambrano needs a change of scenery, his teammates probably aren't pleased with him, and he has so much bad blood in Chicago he should go. He has one guaranteed year left on his contract and a vesting option that probably won't be activated (he would have to win the Cy Young Award next year). The problem is he is owed $18.5M next year. The Cubs would have to eat about half of that (which they may be willing to do if they really don't want him). Also they should expect very little in return, which they are probably willing to do as well.

This plan is filled with risk. If I were running the Reds this wouldn't be my plan A, B, or C. I wouldn't make this trade until about February if everything else failed. But they also say there is no such thing as a bad one year contract, which is what he would be for the Reds. If he still sucks and is less than a model citizen the Reds can cut him; with no long term damage. Also perhaps going to another team will give him a fresh start and light a fire under his ass to prove something.

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A fine idea, except he's nowhere near an ace and hasn't been for the better part of five years.

He’s a headcase, obviously, but his problems don’t only stem from that. His stuff has shown a serious decline in recent years, bottoming out this season. He has poor control, his fastball averages only 90.2 MPH anymore, opponents are making more contact in general and he doesn’t have a swing and miss pitch anymore. He’s not even worth half his contract in terms of ability, and that doesn’t take into account the fact that he’s a) a headcase, b) an awful teammate, and c) a piece of shit chicken fucker. The only way I’d be ok with dealing for him is if Bronson Arroyo is heading in the other direction.

by Geki on Aug 13, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

Z for BroYo

That’s fucking interesting, man.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 13, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

z and dontrelle would improve reds ph, esspeciallyy in extra inning games

"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"

by Ewok on Aug 14, 2011 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

more bats!

Operation: 'tHan's Awesome Plan is living up to its name.

by 'tHan on Aug 22, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

I’d actually do that. At least you knock a few remaining bad contact years off

Calmer than you are.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Aug 15, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions

nahgonnahappen

I’d do it in a second though

by pack_fan on Aug 17, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

The downside

Big Z owed $38 million over the next two seasons, Arroyo $28 million over the next 10!

Can’t resign BP or anyone else in the offseason

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 17, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Arroyo's money goes from 10 years to 2 if he is traded

and Z is only owed $18 mil for next year. His option for ’13 most likely will not vest.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

From our perspective though

it’s 10 years

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 17, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

But hell, if his option won't vest, that is a swap I would do

but the Cubs probably wouldn’t, but who knows?

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 17, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I dunno

It’s definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 17, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

point C has a lot of merit

if we could swap Big Z for Badrroyo, sign me the fuck up

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't we already have a pitcher with a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head?

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 13, 2011 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Volquez?

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

yerp

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 14, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

just wanted to make sure I was pickin' up what you were puttin' down

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

no

"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24

by BK on Aug 13, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

definitely a good argument

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

But we do have a budding ace in Johnny Cueto

Kevin Youkilis: If I were to go anywhere, I would want to go to Cincinnati .

by Madville on Aug 13, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Not if he K/9 stays in the 5s.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

...

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 13, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

This isn't me beinga a negative asshole

I think Cueto is a fine pitcher. But he has a BABIP in the .220s, and a K/9 in the 5s. Even if he is a hard sinker pitcher now with lots of ground balls his peripherals translate to an ERA in the high 3s or low 4s.

Zambrano probably isn’t the answer, but I would like to get somebody to put at the top of this staff, Cueto is support cast not the leading actor.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Wrong.

Kevin Youkilis: If I were to go anywhere, I would want to go to Cincinnati .

by Madville on Aug 13, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

We've seen this act before

Arroyo’s 3.29 ERA in 2006 was not supported by his peripherals, and he came back to Earth with a solid but much less spectacular 2007.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Comparing Cueto to Arroyo is a bit silly.

Cueto has much better stuff than Arroyo does.

It is evident that Cueto has greatly changed his approach this year. According to FanGraphs, he has added a new pitch (a curveball) to his repertoire, and changed his delivery (the Tiant turn). This has led to an increase in his GB% and a decrease in his K%. Granted, his BABIP is unsustainably low (.227) and so is his ERA. But as we saw in his most recent start, he can dial it up to 95-96 MPH and get a K if he needs one (the Carlos Gonzalez AB late in the game).

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 13, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

His peripherals state he is a fine but not great pitcher

If you think he is actually one of the top pitchers in the league, you will probably be sadly disappointed. If he can get his K rate up into the 7s or 8s with his 50% ground ball rate, than we really have something.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

So, are you saying that this is all "luck"?

Can one pitcher not induce weak contact with more frequency than another pitcher? Pitchers frequently out-pitch their peripherals. Your boy Maddux did it 13 times in his career, his career K/9 was right around 6, his GB% was (like Cueto this year) at around 50%.

Also, I think it needs to be mentioned that Cueto’s K/9 is closer to 6 than it is to 5.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 14, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I will say that I am not arguing the Reds should not try to get another

top of the line pitcher, but I do think you are undervaluing what Cueto is doing this year.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 14, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

and fuck Carlos Zambrano

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 14, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

I just looked up Maddux and Glavine's fangraphs

both pitchers did out pitch their peripherals, Maddux’s career FIP was 3.26, compared to his ERA of 3.16 and career BABIP of .281. It should be noted that Maddux’s best year when he kept his ERA under 2 his BABIP was .244. So he was a great pitcher putting up a historically great season with luck.

Glavine was a bit more extreme, he didn’t strike out many hitters at all, his career FIP was 3.95 compared to a career ERA of 3.54, but his career BABIP was .280.

Neither pitchers were over powering and both required their defense to get outs; but both had BABIP’s of .280.

I am guessing if you push Cueto’s BABIP this year up to .280 his ERA is in the 3s, which is still very good. But not top of the league great.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 14, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Want to hear a crazy stat that is completely unrelated to this argument?

Pedro Martinez’s FIP in 1999 was 1.39.

Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.

by -ManBearPig on Aug 14, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions

sucks he had his highest BABIP of his career that year

that could have been a historically good year otherwise.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 14, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

It was historically good anyway

perhaps the greatest pitching season of all time in terms of dominance.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 14, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

and to think that was an incredible era for offensive performance (and that had nothing to do with steroids, as I am compelled to point out). So he didn’t do that in the Deadball Era or anything. Mind-boggling.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 14, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

So when did they de-liven the balls lately?

2008 or so?

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 14, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

From this graph

it looks like sometime in the beginning/middle of the last decade.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 14, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Ugh

The end got cut off there. But if you right-click/open image in new tab, you can see the whole thing.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 14, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

but imagine if he had luck on his side too

he could have put up an ERA of 1.20.

That would rival Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 14, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Gibson's FIP that season was 1.77

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 14, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

What Cueto has done this year has been incredible

What he is likely to do next year is another question altogether, and one that Yossi is worried about with good reason (worried isn’t the best word). Because a large portion of Cueto’s success this year is likely dependent on luck, and on a change in his delivery. Deception works while it’s new.

Add 60+ points to his BABIP and double his HR rate and how good will he look then? Average-ish.

I love Cueto, and he’s easily the best pitcher on our team, but I don’t buy that his new delivery has transformed his true talent into anything close to what we’ve seen this year.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 14, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

definitely a good argument

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

who else but Madville?

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Bingo! Say the magic word and win...

Kevin Youkilis: If I were to go anywhere, I would want to go to Cincinnati .

by Madville on Aug 14, 2011 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

A bold idea

but I’d probably stay the hell away from that nutcase. Guy pitches like shit last night by giving up a ton of homeruns, and his reaction is to pout and walk out on his teammates? No thanks, even if his problems are tied to the Cubs, a change of scenery likely doesnt change anything about that prima-donna attitude. Plus he has a vesting option for $19.25M so long as he’s healthy at the end of 2012 (according to cots), I don’t know if the Cubs can provide potential relief in that case, but its still risky to bring in a guy who if you don’t end up wanting him he’ll be around and probably expensive for another year.

That said, I’m not against taking royal assholes onto my team, but in this case I would only do it IF he pitches like he did the first half of this year, IF he doesn’t blow up the clubhouse, and IF the cubs will pay a significant chunkj of his 2012/2013 salaries. I’m not sure those all would happen though.

by pack_fan on Aug 13, 2011 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

From Baseball-Reference on his vesting option

Option guaranteed if Cy Young (1st or 2nd in 2011 or 2012 top 4) and healthy] at completion of 2012 season.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

ah, missed the and

well that makes it a little less of a gamble, even if he’s a problem its only for one year. Plus they could just release him if they wanted

by pack_fan on Aug 13, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

But you're ruling out the .000000000000000000001% chance he comes to Cincy and wins the Cy Young.

Miguel Cairo is so last week.

by sexsalad on Aug 13, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

The Reds need their pitchers to pitch as they've been doing as of late and that is doable, very doable.

Bailey, Cueto, Leake and Chapman will be fine for next year’s starting rotation AND Travis Wood is going to just get better and better.
Don’t need no ACE.
Could use a closer and an 8th inning pitcher…
This year is in the books but NEXT year…I am looking forward to next year big time – that is of course if Walt and Dusty don’t fuck it up by getting another EDRent SS and another retread LF. Cause if Walt gets them…Dusty will play the Vets and that ain’t what this team needs…let the kids play.

Kevin Youkilis: If I were to go anywhere, I would want to go to Cincinnati .

by Madville on Aug 13, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Awesome, we can get bounced in the NLDS again.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 13, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

still means we made the playoffs

I’ll take that

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

You would be happy with the NL version of the Twins

i mean having meaningful baseball in September is always fun, but I would be incredibly frustrated if the Reds don’t make a deep playoff run with the current core.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 14, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Me too

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 14, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

i would not

after The Lost Decade, I just wanna get to the playoffs on a more regular basis

once they get there, let them figure out what to do once they get there

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 14, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you, but

I don’t think adding Zambrano helps them any in the playoffs. And I think he only helps them marginally, if we assume all his mental issues work themselves out. I also think he’d clash with a lot of guys in the clubhouse, and I suspect (OK, actually I just hope) Dusty Baker won’t be managing the Reds next year.

by RedsFanInJapan on Aug 16, 2011 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions

good lord

you’re like those fuckers in the Bengals NG who pitched hue and cry because the Bengals were bumped by the Steelers in 2005 and complain incessantly about it. Effectively, “win it all or don’t bother”.
feh
I’d rather enjoy having a good team than worry about being angry if they don’t win the ring.

A Ongreed the Deserving
-coviner's lawful neutral Paladin / Debutante character

by supergrover on Aug 16, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, silly me

i would like to see a team that is constructed to win a World Series, rather than hope to make the playoffs…

A dominant pitcher or two greatly increases the Reds chances of winning a World Series. Remember what Jose Rijo did for the Reds in 1990?

The Reds don’t have a pitcher who matches up with most play off teams aces, I would like to fix that. An ace makes a big difference in a short series.

It will get better.

by Yossarian22 on Aug 16, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't be so passive aggressive.

We all want the team to win the world series. We certainly hope there are efforts to made to close the gap between this team and a championship team. Being pissy about just getting to the playoffs is Veruca Salt.

A Ongreed the Deserving
-coviner's lawful neutral Paladin / Debutante character

by supergrover on Aug 17, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions