2011 Reds.....Why?

by Blue Report on Aug 10, 2011 11:43 AM EDT

The smoke that we all started to see in early July has led us now to what most of us saw coming.... the Reds have turned into a three alarm building fire that is out of control and burning to the ground. I think about the high expectations we all had in April and then look at where we are today and I'm shocked. For the most part this is the same team that won the National League Central last year, same coaches, manager, GM, players and the most important part......fans. So I ask myself why? Why did this all happen and how did we get here?

# 1 Dusty isn't a pitching coach -This has always been and will always be his weak point. Dusty has run more pitchers in the ground than you can count. His decisions and timing on relief have always been questioned and my guess is that won't change.

# 2 Lack of a lead off hitter - We knew this last year yet we made no move towards helping this situation.

# 3 Development of Drew Stubbs - Drew has made no improvement with his stick this year and this deal has really run its course as far as I'm concerned. I'm not sure he will ever be a good every day player. I see him as a vacation fill in for temporary stints.

# 4 Good Bye Arroyo - Arroyo has been horrible for a while now. We can't bring him back again next year.

# 5 Justifying Volquez - How many games did we lose this year or get put in position to lose over the Reds and Dusty Baker trying to force Volquez into become a good starting pitcher? Lets face it folks, I don't think its going to work out for him in Cincy, a change of scenery may work for Volquez but I have my doubts...and don't tell me what he has done in Lousiville.

# 6 Left Fielder - Explain to me why we left Jonny Gomes in the lineup during his season long slump and Chris Heisey on the bench and Alonzo in Louisville? I'm a Jonny Gomes fan but again you can't make somebody hit better. Best thing for Gomes early would have been to bench him and try again later. We left him out there and then it became a head deal with Jonny and his whole season was gone.

Just some thoughts I have. Many more issues than what I have here but these stand out to me when I think about the 2011 Reds.

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Comments

I think the difference from 2010 Rolen

to 2011 Rolen should be much, much higher on this list.

Tequila and pancakes, anyone?

by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Aug 10, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

also 2, 3, and 6 are…debatable I guess.

Also! OCab’s magic pixie dust was strong enough to make the entire AL Central suck bad enough for Cleveland to compete. Some of that would have been useful for this year.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 10, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

the loose/lose typo is one of my favorites

by pack_fan on Aug 10, 2011 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

Chapman being in the pen to start the year still bothers me

The team could really use a good starting pitcher. They aren’t paying him to pitch the 8th or to close after Cordero is gone (at least, I hope not). It’s basically a really stupid Dusty decision where you realize he forced it on the team because he wanted help to win now. The window is not huge with this team, but when you look at the future of everyone else in the division, there is no reason to waste valuable time that could be developing an ace (or at least a very strong #2) when you can’t use the trade market to pick up that kind of pitching help.

If you say he’s got nothing left to prove against minor league talent, maybe. I’d say just letting him regain that starter’s stamina and develop his other pitches more is a better investment for the team than having him as the setup man, or closer of the future.

by RedsFanInJapan on Aug 11, 2011 1:50 AM EDT reply actions

Oof.

You know who has “always questioned” Baker’s pitching? Flubs fans. He isn’t stellar with a pitching staff, but he’s used what he’s been given this year.
It would be nice to have a “true” lead-off hitter, but scoring isn’t this team’s problem – they’re 2nd in the league in RS.
Drew Stubbs is a league-average hitter who plays stellar CF and is fast as all hell – all told, he’ll be about a 4 WAR player this year. There is nothing wrong with him, and in fact he’s been much better than anyone thought he’d be as a major leaguer.
Arroyo isn’t going anywhere unless the Reds eat a significant amount of money. And it looks like he’s the same pitcher as he’s always been with one big difference – he’s allowing 2 HR/9 IP, and he’s never before allowed more than 1.3. Given none of his other stats are out of line (especially his LD rate), I’m willing to chalk it up to a bit of bad luck.

Speaking of which…

For the most part this is the same team that won the National League Central last year, same coaches, manager, GM, players and the most important part……fans. So I ask myself why? Why did this all happen and how did we get here?

In addition to losing alot of production at 3B, the Reds have mostly been unlucky. Their RS/RA suggest a .530 winning percentage.

They’re not a perfect team (I never thought they were), but they’re not a disaster either. A full year of Cozart at SS, a warm body in LF, and a bit better luck for the starting pitchers will have you signing the praises of the ’12 Reds.

"You never know how you look through other people's eyes"

by sidnancy on Aug 11, 2011 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

Thanks sid

I needed that.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 11, 2011 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Me, too!

I’ve been looking for something like that for weeks.

by the finest muffins on Aug 11, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Ahhhh

if only more than half of these things were true. Still, an effective rebuttal to some rather inane points.

expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat

by kcgard2 on Aug 12, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

This whole fan shot will look silly

after the Reds 17-game win streak puts them back in contention.

"At the very end, somebody took a dump right where I stood in the dugout every day." Dusty Baker

by featherman on Aug 12, 2011 8:05 AM EDT reply actions

The number for 700 WLW's Sportstalk

is 721-7000.

Wear something sexy to my funeral.

by Pops Daniels on Aug 12, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I think the EV point has some merit

Dude’s been bad. Combine him with Arroyo, and you’re dealing with 40% of your rotation that you’re damn convinced will end up in a L every time both of them get the ball this year.

That puts way too much pressure on the likes of Cueto, Bailey, and the merry go round we’ve trotted out to round out our rotation. Granted, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Willis, and Leake’s had an Arroyo-esque 2nd half, and I never have bad things to say about Wood, but you just can’t lean hard on 60% of your rotation to HAVE to win the majority of starts.

So, the craptastic starts we’ve gotten from our rotation leads to an overtaxed bullpen, and The Dusty just hasn’t really effectively managed those arms in high leverage situations. And the sad part is, I really like our bullpen this year. On paper, I thought they were one of the best in all of baseball coming into the season. Plenty of live arms, and a lot of variety, so it wasn’t like we were going to trot out the same kinda pitcher each time The Dusty went to the mound to make a pitching change.

And sure, we’ve scored a lot of runs, but damn if they haven’t come at the right time. We’ve been unlucky, and dropped too many close games. And wouldn’t you know it, but we definitely haven’t beaten up on the crappy teams we should have during this season, which never helps the W/L record.

Add that all up, and here we are.

Pack it in for this year, and look ahead to 2012 and hope that we give the youngsters a fair shake to prove what they can do, b/c unless Walt wows the Hell out of all of us and adds a stud SP to the rotation and a stud bat to the lineup, we’re stuck with what we’ve got right now goin’ into 2012.

The ends justify the means

by Highlifeman21 on Aug 12, 2011 10:39 PM EDT reply actions