Farmers Only Farmer's Market: Trade Deadline Hangover Edition
by BK on Aug 1, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintWell, it's August 1st, and the names in our minor league system today are strikingly similar to the ones that have been there all year. It's nice that we can be comforted by the fact that we'll be getting to see Yasmani Grandal, Devin Mesoraco, and Travis Wood's names here for the remainder of the season, but the promising young pitcher we should have acquired for Ramon Hernandez will be sorely missed. So here's an update of the same old names.
Dave Sappelt
He's come back to earth after coming off the DL a month ago and has evened out to a tune of a .857 OPS so far this year, but his line of .429/.457/.476 of his last 10 games is a step in the right direction. I'd like to see him walk more, but that's a line I'd take out of a future leadoff hitter. Of course, this is Walt we're talking about, so don't expect to see him in Cincinnati anytime soon.
Billy Hamilton
Yes, I know he was here last week, but he hasn't slowed down at all. It looks like he's actually figuring out how to hit. A .400/.467/.650 line in his last 10 games is damn impressive (with 3 triples!), and he still leads the free friggin' world in stolen bases with 75.
Donald Lutz
The German import is having a decent season so far, but has been raking lately. Check out this excellent write-up in the Dayton Daily News about his story, and he's put up a 1.200 OPS in his last 10 games, kicked off by the cycle he hit for last week, the first in Dragons history. Prost!
Eric Campbell
After killing it in Bako to start the year (1.121 OPS in 46 games), Campbell has quieted after his hot start in Carolina. His OPS there is a pedestrian .743, but his .171/.256/.171 line in his last 10 games is pretty rough.
Juan Duran
He's had a solid year so far, and looks to be a real prospect, but he's struggling right now. He has a .631 OPS in his last 10 games, but the most telling stat to me is his 17 strikeouts to only 1 walk in that span. That's horrible, and he has 116 on the year in 258 at bats, which is honestly pretty hard to do. I think he's going to need to work on his plate discipline.
Gabriel Rosa
No pic for this year's 2nd round pick yet, but this can't be the start he was looking for. In the 11 games he's had since signing, he's hitting .184/.256/.342 (mostly in the 3 hole), with only 3 walks on the year. It's way too early to make any judgements on this sample yet, but I'm hoping he can get some positives out of his first year of pro ball.
On to the weekend's games.
- Louisville won all 3 of their games over the weekend. The Bats took an early lead on Friday to beat Rochester 8-3. Dave Sappelt and Jeremy Hermida had 3 hits each, and Chris Valaika hit a solo homer. Denis Phipps, Devin Mesoraco, and Mike Costanzo drove in 2 runs each. Matt Maloney got the start on rehab, and gave up 2 runs in 4 innings, getting up to 72 pitches. Jared Burton went 1 2/3 innings in his rehab outing, allowing a hit and walking 2. On Saturday, the Bats squeaked out a 3-2 win. Travis Wood pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs with 8 strikeouts. Dave Sappelt and Kris Negron had multi-hit games. The Bats finished off their weekend with a 7-2 win over Rochester. Daryl Thompson threw 6 2/3 innings with 7 strikeouts, only giving up 1 run off of 4 hits. Dave Sappelt was 4-for-5 and Jeremy Hermida hit his 11th homer of the season. Up next: Edinson Volquez will take on Pawtucket at 7:05.
- Carolina won 2 of their 3 weekend games. They beat Jacksonville 6-2 on Friday, behind a solid game by James Avery. Avery went 5 2/3 innings and gave up 2 runs. Neftali Soto was 2-for-3 with his 20th homer of the year, and the brand new Bill Rhinehart was 2-for-4 with 2 RBI. They won 4-2 on Saturday behind 7 innings of 2-run ball from Kyle McCulloch. Henry Rodriguez had 2 hits and Bill Rhinehart hit his first homer as a Mudcat (and his 22nd of the year). They couldn't pull off the third weekend game on Sunday, getting shut out 1-0. Justin Lehr pitched 5 shutout innings with 5 strikeouts, but unfortunately didn't get any support, as the Mudcats mustered up 2 hits on the evening. Up next: The Mudcats take on Huntsville at the ridiculous start time of 7:43.
- Bakersfield lost all 3 of their games. They lost 11-10 on Friday, despite a pretty good night by the offense. Dayne Read had 3 hits and 5 of the starters drove in runs. They lost 7-3 to Modesto on Saturday. Josh Ravin gave up 6 runs (4 earned) in 6 2/3 innings, and Jordan Wideman had 2 hits. They lost 4-3 to Lancaster on Sunday to cap off their weekend, despite a decent start by Mark Serrano. Serrano went 6 innings, giving up 4 runs with 7 strikeouts and no walks. Brodie Greene and Stephen Hunt had 2 hits each. Up next: They take on Lancaster again at 10:45.
- Dayton lost all 3 of their weekend games. They lost 2-1 on Friday to Fort Wayne. Mitchell Clarke pitched 4 innings of 2-run ball after Tanner Robles only went 2 innings in his start. It's worth noting that Brian Pearl pitched 3 innings and only gave up 2 hits with 7 strikeouts in relief. Donald Lutz's triple drove in the Dragons' only run. The pitching got shelled on Saturday, suffering a 9-3 loss. Stalin Gerson gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. Theo Bowe had 2 hits and David Vidal hit his 14th homer of the year. Sunday wasn't any better, as they dropped to Bowling Green 3-1. Daniel Corcino had a decent start, where he gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 6 innings with 6 strikeouts, but his offense didn't help him out much. Billy Hamilton and David Vidal had 2 hits each. Up next: Josh Smith takes on Bowling Green at 7:35.
- Billings dropped 2 of 3 over the weekend. They lost 10-7 to Helena on Friday. Wes Mugarian got shelled, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) and didn't make it out of the 4th inning. Drew Poulk and Nick O'Shea had 3-run homers to cap off a 7-run 6th inning, but it wasn't enough. They made up for it with a 4-2 win on Saturday, in 11 innings. Tony Cingrani started and pitched 4 shutout frames, and El'Hajj Muhammad pitched 2 shutout innings in relief to get the win. The offense was pretty anemic until the 11th, when Sean Buckley hit a walk-off 2-run bomb. They lost 6-4 on Sunday, despite 12 team hits. Danny Vicioso had 3 hits, and Junior Arias hit his 3rd homer of the year. Radhames Quezada struck out 7 in 5 1/3 innings, but gave up 4 runs. Up next: Ismael Guillon takes on Helena at 9:05.
- The AZL Reds won 2 of 3 over the weekend, but dropped a ridiculous 24-4 score on Friday to the AZL Cubs. Joel Bender gave up 4 runs in 4 innings, but last time I checked, the bullpen giving up 20 runs in 4 innings isn't a good thing. Juan Francisco was 3-for-4 on rehab, and could have probably pitched. They won 7-5 on Saturday. Eliezer Beard went 5 innings of 3-run ball with 7 strikeouts. Brandon Dailey was 2-for-4 with 3 RBI. They beat the AZL Tribe 3-2 behind 7 innings from Justice French, who gave up 2 runs with 3 strikeouts. Up next: They take on the AZL Angels at 2 PM.
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Bronson and Edinson both pitch tonight
If Goodroyo doesn’t make an appearance and Volquez throws well, I’d expect to see Voltron in a Reds uniform this weekend.
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
by poojols on Aug 1, 2011 8:24 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Also
Yorman tweaked his shoulder and Sean Buckley might actually be good.
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
by poojols on Aug 1, 2011 8:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm concerned about Yorman's seeming fragility.
He’s been injured a lot already in his short career. I’m just hoping it’s because he should still be in high school and is playing full season baseball, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward.
I’d also like to see them put Buckley in Dayton for the rest of the year. See if that power translates to a less friendly hitting environment.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Yorman update
I talked to Dayton’s strength and conditioning coach after the game. He thinks he’ll be okay. He came out more for precaution it seems. He was first base coaching in the 9th during their almost-rally.
I be so turned up, I be swaggin to da max
by coocooforcocoapuffs on Aug 1, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Just speaking generally
how do the Mudcats hitting prospects rate compared to the system?
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
Apart from Grandal and Rodriguez
There are no hitting prospects in Carolina.
Grandal is top 50 overall and top 5 in the system.
Rodriguez is top 15 in the system
It feels so nice to be back to normal
by nycredsfan on Aug 1, 2011 9:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry, completely forgot Neftali Soto
Hes a tough one. His hit tool and power are elite, but I worry about his plate discipline.
Right now, I’d say he’s easily top 10 in the org, maybe even top 5. And a strong AAA campaign next year could vault him into top 100 prospect range.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
by nycredsfan on Aug 1, 2011 9:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's definitely a 1B. There's not much question about that anymore, I don't think.
The question is will he hit enough for one. And really, if he doesn’t learn to either K less or BB more, it won’t matter what position he plays.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
yeah
He set a personal record, as well as a club one for this season.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Yay?
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
I guess he didn't want to be traded
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
So, organizational thought for the day.
I know we are all pining for a good everyday LFer, and for that position to be settled for the first time since Dunn left.
But, I’m starting to wonder if a rotation of Stubbs/Sappelt/Alonso/Heisey through the LF and CF positions might be very effective.
Those players all complement each other really well. I’m not sure Sappelt will hit enough to be a good LF option, but he’d make a great complement to Stubbs in CF. He doesn’t strike out hardly at all, and has learned to walk a lot more, so he’d possibly make a nice alternative at leadoff on occasion. Yonder is easily the best hitter and worst defender of the bunch, but if you start him you’d always have a good LIDR who could come in late in a close game. Heisey increasingly seems more suited to being a super-sub 4th OF type who could start in LF in huge ballparks or against really tough lefties. When Bruce needs a day off, either Sappelt or Heisey could spell him, and you also have the option of an entirely RH outfield if the team is facing a killer lefty.
I kinda think an OF of Bruce/Stubbs/Alonso/Heisey/Sappelt would be really effective if utilized properly (BIG if, I know), and everyone but Bruce would be making league minimum. That would allow the club to spend on a 3B or very good SP.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
interesting idea
But I think the Reds would find it too risky. They still aren’t sure Alonso can play LF, and Sap has yet get even a cup of coffee.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
You're probably right, but
this is exactly the kind of “risk” a small budget team needs to be taking.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
While you may be right
I think you are being incredibly naive. Walt and Dusty are as risk-averse as set of baseball guys in the game. This will never happen.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 1, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
And I can’t say they’re wrong, at least if the goal is to win now.
I’d have been willing to go with Janish and Cozart at SS this year, but that wouldn’t have worked at all, as things turned out. I wish Renteria could play 3B, but all in all, we’ve needed him.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'm not being naive. I know it won't happen. I'm saying it should happen.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I'd like to see it
But I don’t think I will. BobC wants to win now, Jocketty probably sees the Votto contract as the window for winning it all, and then there’s Dusty’s rep as a “veteran’s manager.”
The problem is that there are so many question marks with the team now. If Rolen’s in terminal decline…can Frazier be the everyday third baseman? I think the Reds have serious doubts about this. Cozart had a great start, but it’s only 11 games. Janish looked pretty good, too, in his first 11 games. Then there’s the catching situation. Will Mesoraco be a Red or a Bat next year?
This team just doesn’t seem to have the stomach to take this kind of risk. They might be willing take a risk with one young player, maybe two, but Cozart and Frazier and Alonso and Sappelt and Mesoraco…I can’t see them doing that as long as they hope to win.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
hah
The Braves announcers said Cozart had one wrist wrapped during the game when he was injured. They said it was a brace, and not a wristband. That’s why they thought he’d injured his wrist.
But Cozart’s always had more pop than Janish. His bugaboo is walks. When they start scouting him, I think that’s the hole they’ll find: he swings at everything.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I don't think that's the issue.
It’s not that he swings at “everything”, it’s that he makes pretty good contact and often puts the ball in play early, and on pitches he maybe shouldn’t swing at. His BB rate isn’t END-ian, and he knows how to take a pitch. He just tends to put balls in play instead of fouling them off or taking them.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
definitely NOT END-ian
END’s in a class all his own.
But I do think Cozy tends to swing at pitches way outside the strike zone that he should let go by. And that he’ll be seeing a lot more of those once they realize that.
Maybe he’ll adjust, but supposedly the batter’s “eye” develops early, and doesn’t improve a lot for a player as advanced as Cozart. (Which is why I have little hope for END.)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Yes, but
SSS notwithstanding, that was not his tendency at all in his time with the Reds so far.
He has a 32% O-swing rate (pitches outside the zone). League average is 30%. So yeah, he swings at stuff outside the zone just a bit more than average. He also makes contact on those pitches at a well above average rate (72% compared to 68% league average).
The real difference, and the reason for few walks, is that his Z-swing rate (pitches inside the zone) is very high (72% compared to 65% league average). Not only that, but he makes contact on a LOT of those swings (98%(!) compared to 88% league average).
So it’s possible that pitchers will just feed him junk and never give him a pitch in the zone, but given his numbers so far, it only takes 1 or 2 pitches in the zone and he’s likely to put it in play. He’s always going to have a low walk rate, but as long as the K rate is low too (which it was this year, both in AAA and MLB), he should be fine.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I'm really curious
about what this team will look like next year.
As I said in the other thread, I think maybe we’re a bit too hard on Dusty. I doubt he’s just sitting Alonso because he doesn’t like his face. He doesn’t keep track of all these players; his decisions on whom to play where are probably shaped by the rest of the Reds organization, including Walt (whose job it is to know all these players) and his coaches. To an extent, his views of the players are the Reds’ views. Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs played right away, and kept playing, even when they were mired in deep slumps…because the Reds saw them as the future, and Dusty accepted that. And I think he truly does want to put young players in a position to succeed, and that’s why he’s so hesitant sometimes.
That said…I’m wondering if RLN is right, and Dusty is a bad match for such a young team.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Thing is, the entire organization is saying Alonso has gotten much better in LF.
And Dusty has to know he’s easily the best hitter of the 3 LF choices. Seems dumb for him to not give him a single start out there.
My guess is one of two things. The cynical me is saying it’s Dusty reacting to Gomes being traded, but the more likely scenario is that he is truly high on Heisey and wants to give him a shot. Which is fair enough, but so far Heisey is doing nothing to reward Dusty’s faith. At some point, Alonso has to be given a shot. And Fred Lewis, despite his good numbers, needn’t start ever again.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Dusty says
Billy Hatcher is working with Alonso in LF. I would guess that it’s Hatcher who’s telling him he’s not ready.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Heisey is the new soft j
Loved universally, then ditched by RR
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
I've never loved him. I thought he was a better option than Gomes against RHP.
I’ve never called for him to start over Stubbs, I never called for him to be the presumptive everyday LFer, and I’ve always wanted to give Alonso a chance there.
When Lewis was signed, I wanted a Lewis/Gomes platoon in LF with Heisey the super sub. But that ship has sailed, and Lewis is not a part of this team’s future. If Gomes was still on the team I’d be happy with giving Heisey a 1 or 2 month trial there. But Alonso is so much of a superior hitter, I think he should get a shot.
Also, you continue to mischaracterize the Janish treatment. No one thinks he’s good. But no one thinks Renteria or OCab are any good either.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
janish treatment
i’m not convinced anyone here ever actually thought janish was any good.
however, there are people that were so excited to argue against our janish hate that they probably wound up portraying themselves as bigger janish fans than they actually were.
some truth to that
i think janish was overadvertised defensively by the site and by the reds broadcasters. i took some shit, from you even, when stating i didnt see the Janish range factor with my own eyes.
The accurate throws to Votto thing just kinda spiraled. Damned if it didnt seem very noticeable the more games one watched however.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
I think yonder is a 1b
Don’t think yonder will ever be an of. Can’t put a square peg in round hole.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
If Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee can be corner OFers, so can Alonso.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
2011 Reds ballplayers with OBPs > .350
.428 Votto
.362 Hernandez
.358 FLewis
.351 Cairo
I think this is a very overlooked area of opportunity for the Reds for next season. Reds needs FT position players who make less outs.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
Fewer outs.
Yonder Alonso’s career minors OBP was .370. Just sayin’
It feels so nice to be back to normal
That wouldn't even translate to .300 in the majors, right? ;)
I kid, I kid.
STACHE SMASH!!!
by Corky's Stache on Aug 1, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
im not too worried about Yorman and Duran
they’re extremely young and have been taught to be very aggressive in the batters box since infancy.
next season will be very telling however.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
Reds top 10 prospects in going to be interesting this offseason
Mesoraco, Grandal, Alonso, Hamilton, Rodriquez, Stephenson, Torreyes, Rodriquez, and….???
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
Assuming he's not demoted, Alonso won't qualify as a prospect anymore this offseason.
I remain hopeful that Mesoraco won’t either.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
good to see yorman, duran and bham all over .250 BA after their early struggles
Dayton, minus Hamilton, has a terrible SB %. that just caught my eye.
"the only place they lost was the scoreboard"
I was at the Dragon games on Saturday and Sunday.
It wasn’t a real good time to watch them play, but you can definitely tell that they have a lot of potential. I think Duran’s problem is his height. He is enormous. His strike zone is so large that he probably thinks he has to swing at everything because the pitch has a higher chance of being in the zone. Corcino threw well, but the defense let him down a few times. All in all a decent series. Bowling Green has a nice ballpark. The Dragons come back in late August.
I be so turned up, I be swaggin to da max
by coocooforcocoapuffs on Aug 1, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions
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