Finally, an explanation for the downhill performances this year!
"The myth of player momentum: Athlete hot streaks or slumps are shown as remarkably variable, dependent simply on the amount of plays the player takes in generating a particular statistic during his or her whole career.
performing poorly or perfectly aren’t blessed or cursed - they’ve simply reached the part of probability where they’re more likely to succeed or fail on a particular repeated action.
When fans thus see a player on some kind of performance pattern, they’re viewing the same rules of chance working in a series of coin flips."
From SCORECASTING: THE HIDDEN INFLUENCES BEHIND HOW SPORTS ARE PLAYED AND GAMES ARE WON
By Moscowitz and Wertheim
Anyone read this? Think I'll get a copy!