Red Reposter - Killer Cueto, Hankerin' for Jimenez, and Farney Freel's fWAR
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 21, 2011 11:19 AM EDT
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Johnny Cueto: Superman or Stopper?
Hall o' Famer Hal isn't sure what the "S" on Cueto's chest stands for, but either one is appropriate. Cueto's 1.98 ERA would be the best in NL if he had enough innings to qualify for that prestigious distinction, but he's about two innings shy. He's pretty good, yeah? -
It's possible that there are more top-tier pitchers available this summer than we might have initially thought
The Rays are now seven games out and could be persuaded to part with James Shields. In that event, the Reds are interested. They are still looking at Ubaldo Jimenez, but Shields would make a perfectly suitable alternative just in case.
A quick comparison of the two: Shields is two years older and has club options for the next three years of his contract that total $28 mil. Jimenez is due $10 mil for the next two years, with an $8mil option for a third that turns into a player option if he gets traded. So Jimenez is definitely cheaper. He's better too, as his career FIP is 3.57. Shields is no slouch though, as he clocks in at 3.92. Obviously I'd rather have Jimenez, but if the rumors are true and O'Dowd is asking for the moon, perhaps the Rays would be more reasonable with their asking price for Shields. Of course, it's entirely possible that neither of these guys are available at all. -
Many trade rumors are swirling right now
and one has the Reds interested in Chone Figgins. I don't think this rumor has any particular merit to it, mostly because Figgins is the worst player in baseball this year. He's hitting worse than Paul Janish and would only fit in LF for the Reds. There really is nothing to see here. But I would like to talk a bit about the kind of player that Figgins is and an aspect of player valuation that I think goes unnoticed, or at least undernoticed.
Figgins reminds me a bit of RR favorite Ryan Freel. Freel was one of the best players on the Reds in '05 and '06, compiling about 7 fWAR over those two seasons. He made his bones by getting on base at a ~.370 clip and stealing 36 and 37 bases, respectively. He was also a plus fielder, totaling around 25 UZR over those two years. But I think the most valuable aspect of his games goes uncalculated in these WAR totals.
Freel played 10 or more games at 5 different positions, covering 3B, 2B, and all three OF positions for those injury-riddled Reds teams. That kind of versatility off the bench is definitely worth something that I think WAR fails to understand. Roster redundancy has been an issue with recent Reds teams. Joey Votto cut his teeth as a platoon partner with Scott Hatteberg, Miguel Cairo does everything Edgar Renteria can do, and there have been long stretches where the Reds have carried three catchers. Filling roster spots with players that do the same thing means one fewer spot for a more useful player. Having both Cairo and Renteria means having only one left-handed bat on the bench. And while an optimized roster means only a few potential additional runs on the margins, those runs are precious nevertheless.
These were runs that Ryan Freel brought to the team by being able to cover so many positions so well. These are runs I think Chone Figgins could provide, or at least did back when he was good. So I guess my point is that while we all know that WAR isn't the omnibus stat we wish it was, this is an area I think it would be worth investigating. Does anybody know of any research that has been done on this issue?
Jon Morosi is reporting that the Braves are interested in Jonny Gomes
Though I'm not sure how reliable he is, since he also mentions that Fred Lewis is making more starts and therefore means Gomes is expendable. All that aside, if the Braves really are interested in the Gomer, I would shed only a few tears. He's hit much better since his putrid start to the season, but he's still a very limited player. If the Reds could get something at all for him and get Chris Heisey more playing time, it would probably be a positive move.
Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally says the Bats are brimming with botential brade bait
He went to the Bats/Braves game to check out Devin Mesoraco, Yonder Alonso, Dave Sappelt, and Todd Frazier. He doesn't even mention other chips in Travis Wood, Brad Boxberger, and Juan Francisco. The Reds definitely have the resources to massively upgrade the big league roster. Whether they do or not is big question.
Jon Heyman lists his top trade chips for the deadline
These are the names we'll see floating around over the next week or so. The guys I'd most like to see in Red are #6 Ubaldo Jimenez, #2 Jose Reyes, and #1 Carlos Beltran. This list is a bit stale though, as JJ Hardy is listed at #12 even though he just signed a three year extension with the Orioles.
It looks like Jonathan Correa's suspension is for lying about his age
rather than another drug use charge. 'creds convinced me he was a good prospect, so I had high hopes for the guy, but if it turns out he's in his mid-20s I'm going to be thoroughly unimpressed with his 2.46 ERA in rookie ball. See ya next spring, Jonny. Maybe.
Bryan Stow, the Giants fan who was severely beaten by Dodger fans on Opening Day,
had a seizure early this week which precipitated an emergency surgery to relieve pressure on his brain. Remember, this happened on Opening Day and the guy is still in serious condition. Doctors still aren't sure exactly how he'll end up, as he could possibly remain in this limbo near-vegetable state or even see a full recovery and return to normal function.
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Big news for Cincinnati!
the next round of the Strikeforce HW Grand Prix tournament will be held at US Bank Arena on September 10th.
Yeah, he's cooked.
Good point about WAR and positional versatility, though. Ben Zobrist got some MVP consideration in ‘09 but should’ve had more. He played second, short, and in the outfield, with a 149 OPS+.
I dunno
I still refuse to believe that he’s totally done. Guys with his walk, contact, and speed profiles don’t fall apart at such a young age, right? I mean, all empirical evidence suggests he’s done as hell, but somehow I remain unconvinced.
What if we got the M’s to pay everything but $1 mil a year and we can use him as the UT guy he should be? It’s hard for me to believe that he’s so done that he can’t post 1 WAR playing part-time all around the diamond and pinch-running and stuff. If we gave up nothing of consequence, is this still a bad gamble to take?
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I get the feeling Figgins' problem is mental
And he’s a good “change of scenery rebound” candidate.
However, his salary makes taking that chance completely retarded.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
He's already 33, which is old for that player type
Small guys who rely on their legs carry a much higher risk as they get older because they don’t have any power to fall back on. Has he been hurt this year? He looks to have lost a lot of speed (babip cratered, steals are down). I’d be wary of getting another Taveras.
It would not surprise me to learn that Ryan Freel was fronting a GWAR coverband
called fWar.
"OVERCHARGE, v. To ask a higher price than you can get." -Ambrose Bierce
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Chone Figgins - you gots to be kiddin'
"A jury consists of twelve persons chosen to decide who has the better lawyer." - Robert Frost
Scratch Izzy off the potential target list
#mets apparently have decided to keep izzy, who’s turning back the clock. want him to mentor young parnell
Via Sheldon
I pray that he has a kid and names it niceshot
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
You really need a Filter, you know that!?
"OVERCHARGE, v. To ask a higher price than you can get." -Ambrose Bierce
by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 21, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Give him a break
He rides the Short Bus.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks Bro.
"Luna Lovegood is really freaking awesome in every way." -Me
by crolfer on Jul 21, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Has O’Dowd – that’s the Rocks GM I think – ever explained why he is trading UJ?
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
He's explained that he will listen to any offer but it would take something utterly ridciculous for him to pull the trigger.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I would not attempt to feed from those udders.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not Beltran?
The Mets are said to be willing to absorb most of not all of his salary for a good prospect.
He would look great between Joey and Jay, and he’s hits from both sides so Dusty won’t have to knifey-spooney him.
Please ignore any sexual innuendo in that last sentence. I’m trying to be serious.
Fart.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
Sounds like they want a top prospect for him.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
You don't get an "impact bat" for peanuts
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He has a no-trade
Per MLBTR, he has not ruled out the Phillies, Red Sox, Braves, Giants and Brewers.
I'd take him for sure
But as a rental player who will cost too much by virtue of being the only impact bat out there, I’m inclined to pass.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
that Brewers game last night
had a pretty brutal 4th inning.
Not only did Stephen Drew break his ankle, Carlos Gomez broke his collar bone making a diving catch. Drew is out for the season. The Brewers are hoping Gomez can return “in a couple of months.”
So, who’s the Brewers backup CFer?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Nyjer Morgan
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
they had been platooning them
I suppose Morgan could take over the job full time, though his splits are extreme.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Nyjmo starts. Brett Carroll who sounds totally uninspiring is coming up from Nashville. Roenicke will play Kotsay sometimes.
Braun said he heard Gomez’ bone break. It didn’t look all that bad although obviously it was, but Drew’s was ugly. It looked like the first thing he did was try and put it back in place when it was pointed the wrong way. Urgh.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
scary
Maybe there’s something to Bobby Abreu’s “no diving” philosophy.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
oh man that must have been terrible
a collar bone injury is no joke, but I think Gomez can make a full recovery. I hope it wasn’t a really serious break
Man, look at the teams that have been linked with Beltran.
By Wednesday evening, the day after Alderson provided him with a short list of interested teams he believed could fulfill the Mets’ wishes and provide Beltran another shot at the postseason, Beltran had not ruled out any of those clubs, believed to be the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers and, perhaps, the New York Yankees.
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
that's going to make the price for Beltran that much more expensive
and the team that gets him doesn’t get the draft picks for offering arbitration since his contract specifically states that the team can’t offer aribtration.
check out the other perks (per Cot’s Contracts):
- hotel suite on road,
- 15-person suite at home games,
- player to purchase post-season tickets,
- club agreed to lease ocular enhancer machine (device that throws numbered & multi-colored tennis balls at 150 mph)
do you think te ocular enhancer machine comes with Beltran?
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
That's a good point
It’s one thing to have a rental that nets you a couple picks, but Beltran would get us nothing. Except maybe closer to getting back to the playoffs.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Who cares about getting to the playoffs? I want draft picks!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting Beltran would far from guarantee getting back to the playoffs.
It would increase the chances, but it still wouldn’t be all that likely that this team makes it to the playoffs. I don’t see how it’s worth losing a couple top prospects over.
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
Of course it wouldn't guarantee anything
But is it worth giving up Heisey for Beltran? Frazier? I think I could make an argument for it.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 21, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
You could make an argument for wanting to give up one of those two, sure.
But I think it would probably take more. The Mets have made it sound like they want a top prospect, and those two aren’t exactly top prospects.
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
I am only in support of a trade where the Reds give up AAA filler, the Mets pay all of Beltran's contract, and agree to give the Reds their top prospect if the Reds don't make the playoffs this year
Otherwise the price is just too steep
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Neither Heisey nor Frazier will get Beltran.
Both, maybe, but neither of them alone would be enough.
I’d bet that if Walt called, they’d start the conversation by asking for Meso or Grandal.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
they're asking Philidelphia for Brown
both still won’t get him.
there are too many teams in it driving up the price for my interest.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Jul 21, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Phillies won't give up Brown. And I doubt a prospect as good as Brown will be in whatever deal happens.
Ken made a good point that the Mets are probably screwing w/ the Phillies by asking for him, since they probably don’t want to trade him to them anyway.
If I had to guess, it’ll be 2 second tier prospects that come back. (Like a Frazier/Sappelt or something like that)
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Brown seems to have lost a little luster as a top prospect
Of course, for them, Beltran doesn’t have to be a rental.
Sox and Yanks get a lot of crap for disproportionately large payroll, but the Phils are #2 this year. $172M.
Assholes.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Brown broke his right hand in ST
He didn’t hit much when he got back but he’s gotten better, now up to 247/339/395. They’re still very high on him.
speaking of Mets contracts, that Johan Santana contract is a doozy
They’re on the hook for at least $55 million for the 2012 and 2013 seasons (plus the buyout of the 2014 season). Now, some of that is deferred. So really, they’re on the hook for the following:
+ $45 million for 2012 and 2013 (plus 2014’s buyout)
+ $5.45 million ($5M deferred plus interest) annually from 2015 through 2020.
So, that means that over the next 10 years, they will pay Santana $77.7 million… and they might get 2 years more service for him.
Ouch!
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Jul 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
At least they gave up nothing of consequence to get him
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 21, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
true
Humber is having a nice season this year, but that is a number of years after the trade was done. Gomez is in the bigs, but isn’t anything special.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Jul 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Damnit Omar Minaya, haven't you ever heard the phrase TINSTAAPP?!?!
It feels so nice to be back to normal
well, Scott Kazmir has finally flamed out
it just took him a decade longer than it took Vic Zombrano.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
The Brewers traded away all of their good prospects for Greinke though
The Brewers farm system isn’t in good shape.
by Snake the Jake on Jul 21, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
They have a couple of decent guys left, but if they get Beltran their system will literally be empty of decent talent.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
Gotta admire the Brewers FO for going all-in when they think they have a shot
Go for it. Spend a couple years rebuilding the system, go for it again.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Thornburg pitched in the futures game – I think I heard that Peralta made Law’s top 50 which is shocking coming from Law. They’ve got a bunch of other pitching prospects, they just don’t have 1 or 2 shiny ones that everybody talks about. They’ve got a bunch of OFs and 1B and some nice 2B guys too. There are catchers who I hear scouts outside the system are high on that don’t have great numbers. They lack shiny prospects that get the minorleagueball crowd all wiggly and SSs at the upper levels.
The weird thing is that the guys they gave up were trashed endlessly by outsiders. Its kind of how it works with the MLB team. They’re bad because they have Prince. They’re going to be bad because they’re losing Prince. Ditto Hart and others.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
Sure, everyone has players who play games in their system.
If the Brewers have more than 1 player currently in their system who ends up being an “impact” player in the majors, I’ll be shocked.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I was very glad yesterday's game was a day game
that meant there was nothing to interrupt my franklin & bash time!
I like Miggy and all, but that picture reminds me of this guy
Calmer than you are.
by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Jul 21, 2011 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm a little skeptical about Shields.
It’s just that he’s never really been that good before, and all of the sudden he’s pitching like an ace out of nowhere in his age 29 season. Also, his HR/FB has always been a little high and that’s pitching in Tropicana, which isn’t exactly a hitter’s park (ranked 21st most susceptible to HRs.) I’m a little worried about that percentage going way up pitching in GABP, and that wouldn’t be a pretty sight. His GB% might make up for it a little bit, but it seems like he tends to get hit hard on fly balls and an even higher percentage of those could leave the park at GABP.
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
He's pitching well in the AL East with a team-friendly contract
He’s a younger Arroyo with better stuff. K/BB ratio is consistently good. Eats innings like nobody’s business.
Not as flashy as Ubaldo, but he’s been much more effective this year in a much more competitive division.
A dope trailer is no place for a kitty.
by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat on Jul 21, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure where you are getting that he's "never really been that good before"
He had a rough year last year, but that was mainly due to BABIP and HR/FB unluckiness. Every other year he’s been above average and has a career ERA+ of 105 (which accounts for park factors).
Also, the AL East. The NL Central would be like going to AAA for him.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
I should have probably explained that.
While it’s true that he’s always been above average, he’s never pitched like an ace before. I just have a little trouble believing that a guy could be an above average workhorse type his entire career and then suddenly become an ace during his age 29 season. I think it’s likely regress a little in the second half, but I could easily be wrong.
Good point about the AL East. It’s true that he’s been putting up these stats not only in the DH league, but in the absolute best part of the DH league. I wouldn’t be upset about the Reds acquiring him, but I’d be hesitant to give the Rays the type of return they’d get for an absolute top of the line ace. And with the way the SP market is this year, they might just be asking for that.
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
Please
look at Shields’ K rates or walk rates, for his career. Playing in the AL East, it’s elite. Plus a being a decent if not great GB pitcher. Last year was bad luck in HRs, BABIP, GB%, LOB%, basically everything. You can look at FIP and see that if he is not an ace, per se, he’s a team’s option 1b. He’s always been really good, though this season is a little better than should be expected going forward.
Let me tell you the story of a guy who wasn't even striking out a batter every other inning has last year in the AL East
He came over to the NL, made the All-Star Team, lead the league in IP, lead his staff in ERA, the very next year.
Nothing succeeds like failure.
Also, am I the only one who didn't know Lance Berkman is leading the NL in homers until just now?
Miggy Miggy Miggy, can't you see?
Sometimes your skills just hypnotize me.
And I just love your veteran ways,
You're unappreciated and under-paid.
and a bunch of them are bombs
He looks so unlikely to play the way he does hunched over and walking on his toes.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
if anyone is interested
Ben Nicholson-Smith – @mlbtrben – of MLB Trade Rumors will be joining Clint and me at 3:25pm on 980 WONE to talk possible #Reds moves.
Sheesh. Westbrook had the sinker working today. 15 groundouts and just 1 flyout.
Apparently Kyle Lohse returned to STL today with a finger injury. No word on how serious it is, but that could mean they get heavily involved in looking for a starter.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
that means
they are 1.5 games back of the Brewers. Still third place.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Sporcle quiz - took me all but 12 seconds
http://www.sporcle.com/games/GeoExpert/reachingfirstbase
"I slyde my boehner into sexsalad...."
Sounds like a johnu1 production. --jch24
I did terribly, but it's not my fault. That quiz was messed up.
Neither “Slipping tongue” nor “Getting under the shirt” were accepted.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
by nycredsfan on Jul 21, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
It does say "in baseball"
I never, ever want to play baseball with you.
Okay I'm pretendin that my tongue is all goin crazy.....man hee hee this is kinda fun
by RoastBeefKazenzakis on Jul 21, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't've got catcher's interference if it wasn't for those 3 calls last series
"You! Look what you've done. My starting pitcher thinks he's a chicken."
Hope no opposing scouts are looking at Boxy today as a trade chip.
Came in in the 9th with the Bats up 6-3. After a K, he gave up 3 hits and a walk to allow 1 run and load the bases. They brought in another guy who gave up a single, which, combined with the Kris Negron error, scored all three runners, losing the game 7-6.
It feels so nice to be back to normal
all those rallies that just fell short
You kinda knew eventually they would succeed.
Must be exciting for young Pastornicky, though. (The Braves SS who hit the walkoff 3-run single.) He was just promoted from AA.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
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