My Answers for the Reds Blogger Roundtable

We had a fun roundtable discussion at Blog Red Machine this week. However, only a few of each bloggers' responses to the questions could be published in the official compilation of answers. I decided to publish all of mine on my personal blog in case folks were interested.

11 months ago JinAZ 8 comments 0 recs |

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I also took part

There were nice enough to facilitate. One answer that didn’t make it on, about a BP extension. With Torreyes and H-Rod, hopefully one of them is 2B ready in. I’m still not sure if I’d give BP a second year beyond his option, but he’d probably insist. As long as he’s trade-able, it’d be OK I think…

4. You’re Walt. Brandon Phillips: extension or no? Why?

I’d be open to extending him, but probably not for as long as he’ll be asking. I’d balk anything more than two years beyond the option. I’d try to get him for no more than 3/$34 ($12M option, $11M, $11M). If you think he has about a 4 WAR ceiling and will regress as he ages (and might take also take a slight discount) I think that’s reasonable.

Chase Utley’s getting $15/yr for his age 31-33 seasons. He’s probably good for at, minimum, 1 win above Phillips over that span. Also, Henry Rodriguez (or Torreyes) may be ready by ’13 or ’14 at the latest.

"OVERCHARGE, v. To ask a higher price than you can get." -Ambrose Bierce

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 15, 2011 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I was more gung-ho on Phillips.

If there’s money in the budget, I do extend him. I’m not as sold on the minor leaguers…unless Frazier can play there. And I think it’s no better than 50/50 that he’s with the team next year.

If there’s no money, it doesn’t matter. But I at least pick up the option.

I write at:
RotoGraphs | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jul 15, 2011 12:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I tend to agree

The only way Walt is going to hang his hat on a rookie is if the kid is a top-25 bona-fide kinda prospect. And even though I doubt he would do it. He’s a play it safe kinda guy and he’s going to go with the veteran All-Star (like Arroyo) over an unknown.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 15, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

FWIW...

I’m not convinced that Walt’s approach in that regard is incorrect—especially for long term planning. If you have a proven, extremely consistent (year to year), above-average player like Phillips, it’s pretty hard to walk away from him when all you’ve got are a couple of mid-level prospects in the low minors.
-j

I write at:
RotoGraphs | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jul 15, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't disagree with that either

My problem is with most GM’s (not just Walt’s) tendency to play things too conservative. I really think risk could be exploited as a market inefficiency, if only a GM had the stones to do it. Of course, it’s an incredibly easy way to get yourself fired.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 15, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd extend, but BP is probably look for his "last big contract"

"OVERCHARGE, v. To ask a higher price than you can get." -Ambrose Bierce

by RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on Jul 15, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

My number...

…was $60/5 yrs. That’s based on 3 WAR next year, 0.5 WAR loss per year, 0.08% inflation and currently $5 M per WAR.

If your over/under is 2.5 WAR next year, then the contract value drops to 4 yrs/$41 M or 5 yrs $45 M. Amazing what a difference a half of a win makes. And that’s within our margin of error.

I think he’d take $60/5. I don’t know about $41/4 or $45/5.

I don’t know if the Reds can do any of them. They lose Cordero’s contract, but Votto & Bruce & Cueto are just starting to get paid.
-j

I write at:
RotoGraphs | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jul 15, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I’m not sure they can afford one more cornerstone player like that. I’d like to think they could, and with Coco off the books perhaps it’s entirely possible, but if that’s true I’m not sure I’d pick BeeP over Stubbs for the next 5 years.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 15, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions