Edinson Volquez had to take 'em to that Ghetto University. Reds win, 8-2.
by Brendanukkah on Jun 8, 2011 1:19 AM EDT
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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game
Edinson Volquez. The stint in Louisville seemed to work, at least for today. Volquez came out and did what Mike Leake did yesterday: deliver a sometimes messy quality start and pitched deep into the game. He threw seven innings, scattered seven hits, and only allowed one run. Honorable mentions go to Miguel Cairo (a grand slam) and Drew Stubbs (2-4 with a double and an RBI).
Key Plays
- Edinson Volquez defied all expectations by getting through the first inning without allowing a run. However, in the second inning Aramis Ramirez and Blake DeWitt hit back to back doubles. Ramirez scored, but the Cubs conspired to strand DeWitt. Cubs lead, 1-0.
- Paul Janish singled off of Doug Davis to start the third inning for the Reds. Edinson Volquez bunted him to second, and Drew Stubbs hit a double to bring him in. Game tied, 1-1.
- In the fourth inning, it was Jay Bruce's turn to lead off the inning with a single. With one out, Miguel Cairo singled and Bruce went to third, where Ramon Hernandez's sacrifice fly was enough to score him. Reds lead, 2-1.
- Doug Davis is not a good pitcher, and the Cubs are not a good team. They showed that in the fifth inning when Volquez and Stubbs singled to start things off, and Brandon Phillips walked to load the bases. Up to the plate strode Joey Votto, and Davis decided just to walk him, figuring that one run was mitigating the damage. So Jay Bruce faced a bases loaded, no outs situation... and struck out. Jonny Gomes hit a fly ball off of reliever Rodrigo Lopez that was deep enough to score Stubbs. Miguel Cairo grounded out, ending the inning. Getting two runs in an inning is never a bad thing, but the expectation for more is always there when Votto and Bruce face a bases loaded, no outs situation. Cairo, for his part, made up for it later. Reds lead, 4-1.
- John Grabow pitched the seventh inning, and by the time he was finished, he considerd renaming himself John Grabankles. Brandon Phillips led off with a double, and Joey Votto's single put runners on the corners. Jay Bruce walked and the bases were loaded with no outs for Jonny Gomes... who struck out. But Miguel Cairo belted a grand slam! Reds lead, 8-1.
- Since it was a certified laffer, Jeremy Horst pitched the ninth inning for the Reds. Blake DeWitt doubled and scored on pinch hitter Lou Montanez's single. Reds win, 8-2.
Other Notes
- Volquez's scoreless first inning was the fourth one he's thrown this season. That's more than you were expecting, wasn't it?
- Despite ten hits and two walks, no Cub reached second base after the second inning.
- Volquez cut off his dreadlocks. Your move, Kyle Beckerman.
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Didn't see much of this one
Had to squeeze in some sleep before the night shift, but I awoke to the sounds of fireworks, which I later learned to be Cairo’s slammy.
Not a terrible way to be woken up.
I saw some
what a saw was bad, a warning track sac fly by Gomes. Not a bad result.
BUT WHY THE BAT FLIP
BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
I don't get the "ghetto university" reference
but god damn if this wasn’t an awesome win. I only saw EV in the 2nd inning and was worried, but was delighted to check back into the 7th and see that he threw a great game. I also have never bought into the hatred of Cairo — I think he’s a serviceable utility infielder, even if he should have been only signed to a one-year contract instead of two.
Rec'd for the reference honesty
Unrec’d for the offensive and insensitive choice of vulgarity.
As someone who gets accused of Cairo hate,
it’s not that I hate him. You are right, he has been very servicable. I just don’t think that if he gets 300 PAs this year that it will end well. And I think, at this point, that 300 PAs is entirely possible.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
You hate Cairo because he's too old for your tastes
Doing the Farmer’s Only has turned you into our own version of Herbert. Mmmmmmmmmm.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I honestly don't know at this point if you are serious or just doing the trolling thing.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I'm just giving you a hard time, old chap
Although I do think you tend to overvalue youth a bit.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I probably do.
But I find it hard to believe a 37 year old with a career OPS of .680 will continue to hit 70 OPS points higher than his career average.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
God I love beating the Cubs
What are they gonna do for a coach next year since they ran off Rhyno lol?
MLB.com
picked Volquez.
I only just caught up with the game threads. I didn’t realize he’d cut his hair. Wow, that’s a big difference.
CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 7: Edinson Volquez #36 of the Cincinnati Reds sits in the dugout during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on June 7, 2011 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
all the pitchers need to get their heads shaved
untill proven otherwise this is the key to the Red’s pitching success. That means you too Bronson.
"At the very end, somebody took a dump right where I stood in the dugout every day." Dusty Baker
thanks Miggy!
That was the 2nd HOUR hit by a Reds starting 3B/SS this season! Now we just need Weak Wrists McGoo to put his weight into one.
No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jun 8, 2011 7:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm not sure weak wrists McGoo has enough weight to put into one....
He barely has enough to get balls out of the infield.
We need Brandon Larson to Play 3rd! Can't be worse than Rentawreck, right?!?
by BiggerRedMachines on Jun 8, 2011 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm really mystified at Janish's lack of power this year
He’s never gonna be Jay Bruce at the plate, but he hit, what, 4-5 home runs in the month of regular playing time he got last year? What happened to Janish the doubles machine? And he’s had occasional pop in his minor league career.
I don’t think it’s that they’ve figured him out, because it was the same in spring training. His batting average was good, but he didn’t walk or hit anything but singles. I wonder if he’s doing something different this year.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I honestly don't know at this point if you are serious or just doing the trolling thing.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Jun 8, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Oh, I'm very serious.
Kevin Goldstein from BP, on Cozart:
I really don’t know what the Reds are waiting for, as they have an instant upgrade just waiting at Triple-A.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
isn't that what they said about Janish last year?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Interesting
Maybe a marginal upgrade or lateral-move.
I guess he could turn some heads for a week or two before someone figures him out
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
He's hitting .315/.353/.500 in AAA
You don’t think he’d be able to significantly out-hit Janish the rest of the year?
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Yeah, I really don't see what the harm would be.
It’d be tough for him to not hit as well as Janish. He’s not expected to be on Paulie’s level as a fielder, but Cozart has a solid defensive reputation himself, so I imagine he’d at least make Edgar Renteria look like Edgar Renteria. I don’t think Cozart’s gonna hit for average or walk much in the majors, but he’s got a good chance to be Alex Gonzalez-esque (hopefully minus the “being a thieving little bitch” part) in the majors, with a mediocre average and OBP but above average power and defense from the SS spot.
This is exactly the comp I was going to make.
He’s got career line of .248/.294/.401
I think all three are the low end of what we could expect from Cozart. (Cozart’s walk rate is better than Sea Bass)
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I think he might go on a little tear if he were called up
But eventually the league would figure out how to pitch him. But this is just a guess.
You could very well be right
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
Yeah, you have to figure there would be a learning curve for ZC
And he will struggle at some point as he gets used to the consistently better pitching. And Janish cant be as bad as he was the first part of the year.
I think expecting a slight increase in his production compared to Janish is fair, but I am skeptical that he will will significantly out-hit him for the rest of the year.
"Avoid the Clap, Jimmy Dugan. That's good advice!"
Then again,
Its probably worth it to find out
"Avoid the Clap, Jimmy Dugan. That's good advice!"
And the league hasn't figured out how to pitch to Janish?
Janish is bound to have some better BABIP luck, but he ain’t walking or hitting anything other than singles.
At least Cozart offers a bit of power potential.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Agreed
Really no excuse for not trying Zack Attack at this point.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Except hitting in MLB is so much harder than AAA. He'll probably suck!
/ducks
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Also, he was decent (.747 OPS) in the bigs through his age 31 season
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Also, Joey Votto, Drew Stubbs, and a whole mess of non-Reds I don't feel like looking up right now,
vehemently disagree.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Norris Hopper snorts from laughing so hard
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I think he'll go back to his usual walk rates eventually
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Why?
I’ve seen you say this before, but is there anything behind it other than your love for Janish and the want to see him succeed? I’m curious as to whether there’s any statistical basis to this opinion, as the opposing one I espouse below is largely backed up by his plate discipline stats on Fangraphs. The choices seem to be as follows:
1) Janish is hacking more because he’s worried Renteria will take his job if he doesn’t produce enough in the traditional ways, causing him to press at the plate and swing at pitches he usually wouldn’t; or
2) Janish is hacking more because pitchers are throwing the ball in the zone more because he can’t make them pay for bad pitches, meaning he’s behind in the count and has to swing to stay alive
Now, I’m fine with cutting Renteria to find out if it’s just the first one, but I’m really, really convinced that it’s not the case. Janish has a good eye, but it doesn’t matter if the pitcher refuses to throw four balls in the count because he knows if he misses on a fastball up, Janish isn’t hitting it 10 rows deep.
A little more statistical basis: If Janish qualified, he’d be 5th in the majors in terms of percentage of pitches thrown to him in the strike zone at 52.1%. The rest of the top ten consists of Orlando Cabrera, Ryan Theriot, Darwin Barney, Kurt Suzuki, Sam Fuld, Brett Gardner, Denard Span, Michael Young, and Chris Getz. Other than Gardner and Span, all of them have below average walk rates. Other than Young, all of them hit for almost no power. Janish swings at more pitches than anyone on that list but O-Cab. He swings at more pitches outside of the strike zone than anyone but O-Cab and Barney. He’s also less likely to make contact than anyone on the list but Young. He’s 10th in the majors in seeing first pitch strikes, just ahead of Corey Patterson. The only stat he’s got in his favor at this point is his minor league track record, and I don’t think it’s relevant anymore. Major leaguers have seen enough of him that they’ve made their adjustments.
I think it's very likely he'd struggle to make the adjustment
But that’s okay. He has to do it sometime, if he’s going to be a big league player.
My beef isn’t calling up Cozart. It’s calling up Cozart with the expectation that he’ll make the team better now. I’d be wary of that even if the prospect was a Jay Bruce or Joey Votto, let alone Zachary Warren Cozart.
What if he starts his big league career the way he started in Louisville this year – struggling to hit .200? If Janish is hitting .400 down in Louisville, I suppose everyone will be clamoring for another switch. I think that would be a huge mistake – for the team and for both players.
If they swap Janish and Cozart, it should be because Cozart is ready, and they think he’ll be part of the Reds’ future and Janish won’t be.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Unfortunately, I think this is Paul Janish as a full-time player.
He won’t hit this poorly all year because he’s been slightly unlucky, but there’s not a whole lot of reason to expect him to hit nearly as well as he did last year. Pitchers are pounding him in the zone with fastballs early because they’ve figured out he can’t punish it when they make a mistake. This is leading to Janish being behind in the count more, meaning he’s more inclined to protect the plate and thus he’s taking less pitches overall than in the past. In turn, he’s seeing many less three ball counts and thus many less opportunities to walk. A lot of guys with no power see their walk rates collapse in the majors because pitchers realize a single and a walk aren’t that different in most cases and the chances a player like Janish will get more than a single are very small.
Power is down across the board in baseball so far and it’s unlikely that Janish will keep slugging as abysmally as the .035 ISO he has so far, but it’s fairly evident just from watching him that any power he produces is a fluke. He hits balls in play with such general weakness that his career BABIP is .256, and has generally been around there each year he’s been in the majors. Even in the minors, he put up abnormally low BABIPs because of weak contact. Basically, I think we’ve seen a moderately unlucky Janish so far, but I think this is closer to his true talent as a major league hitter than last season was, and his extended trial in 2009 (.211/.296/.305) with a little more average and less walks is probably about what we can expect to get from Janish over a full season. He’s not a good hitter and there’s nothing we or anyone else can do to make him into one.
by Geki on Jun 8, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is an excellent assessment of the situation.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I agree
but the real question is whether or not the 70 OPS+ Janish (which is about where I think his true talent level is) is a legit big leaguer, and whether or not Cozart can be better.
Mark Belanger had a career OPS+ of 68 and he was a pretty valuable ball player (32 rWAR). I think that’s a best-case outcome for Janish, but even if he’s half the ballplayer Belanger was he’d still be pretty good.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 8, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Since we're not talking about reality
I think Cozart’s 95 OPS+ in addition to slightly less defense is indeed more valuable.
Cozart can’t hit that well, you say? Well, Janish is currently at 44. He’s going to have to have a hell of a 2nd half to get to 70 for the year.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I never said Cozart couldn't hit that well
I think it’s pretty close to a guarantee that Coz will hit better than Janish. My argument is that Janish isn’t the antagonist here. Renteria is.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 8, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Janish is destined to be Adam Everett with a touch less power.
He should be with the Reds until we have to start paying him any real money, at which point he’ll bounce around the league as a defensive specialist until his defense slips enough that his bat is no longer justifiable. He’ll retire in his early 30s with a few million saved up and some great stories for the grandkids, and in 50 years, the only thing remnant of Paul Janish’s career occurs every time Orlando Cabrera (who, of course, will still be playing) misses a groundball and some old man in the crowd shouts “Janish would’ve gotten it!”.
by Geki on Jun 8, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, EV's outing really should have been scoreless
but Jay Bruce bungled that “double” by Ramirez. It was a really good outing.
yep.
I thought that should have been an error. He got to it and was no longer running at full speed. Very manageable ball.
You should have left that morning, should have left that day
take your love and your child away
Bruce is hitting really well this year, but his defense has noticeably declined.
I expected him to slow down some as he aged, but he’s already starting to look like he’s gonna be an immobile slugger by the time he’s 28 or 29. His arm might keep him in RF, but I think his real future is probably in LF at this point, unless it’s simply a defensive slump (Stubbs seemed to go through one of those earlier this year, as he’s been much better defensively over the past month or so).
I agree he's looked bad at times.
But I think it’s more mental than physical (bobbled balls, bad routes, etc)
He still seems to have plenty of speed and still gets pretty good jumps out there.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I think it's both mental and physical.
He’s not fat or anything, but Jay does not appear to be as fleet of foot as he was. Part of that is simply the maturation of a power hitter, but I was hoping we’d get a few years of elite defense and 40 homers.
Herringa predicted a score of 8-3 so he gets the point
"And a high fly ball to center field. He hit it a ton. And the 2010 National League Central Division Champs are the Cincinnati Reds!"
but does circle get the square?
No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jun 8, 2011 9:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm trying to decide whether I like what Hernandez did or not.
I watched the replay a few times. He gets the ball in plenty of time in the 9th, and goes to apply the tag, and the guy sliding in was coming in cleats up. If Hernandez just stuck his hand in there, he’d have gotten smacked. So he hesitated long enough for the cleats to go past him to apply the tag, and thanks to a great contortion by the runner he scored.
So…the Reds were up 8-1, it was the 9th inning, and you’d hate for one of our best players to get hurt stopping a meaningless run. On the other hand, it’s disheartening for one of our players to say “fuck this, I’m not getting hurt” and take a less optimum stance. I mean, this isn’t really any different than if BP didn’t dive for a ball because we were up 8-1 in the 9th. It’s a bad attitude to take. The statistician in me understands, the fan in me can’t stand it.
I think Hernandez owes Horst a steak. Outside of that…I don’t know.
I agree. This is a tough call to make.
I can say without a doubt that if the game was on the line he makes the play. I don’t really mind it because we are going to need him. At the same time though…what if the Cubs ended up rallying after that to tie the game or something. The other side of me says make the play no matter what. Split decision.
We need Brandon Larson to Play 3rd! Can't be worse than Rentawreck, right?!?
by BiggerRedMachines on Jun 8, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with him doing what he did, especially under the circumstances (a blowout)
But he easily could’ve gotten the tag on him in time if he really wanted to.
Stubbs’ throw was about as perfect as it could’ve been.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
if we had another melt down and lost by a run yesterday
that play would have been pretty fucking important.
I don't argue I correct.
Smart move.
He pulls that shit in a close game and it doesn’t fly, but there’s no reason to take a big hit and risk injury because it might get you to the clubhouse two minutes faster.
I am completely fine with it
under the circumstances. 8-2 game. 9th Inning. Early in the season.
162 games is a long row to hoe. Taking yourself out of harm’s way in that case is perfectly defensible.
"Avoid the Clap, Jimmy Dugan. That's good advice!"
/reply fail
"Avoid the Clap, Jimmy Dugan. That's good advice!"
Yup, I'm ok with it too
Hernandez is a professional, has been in the Majors a long time. I trust he knew what he was doing and took the necessary precaution
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
Gotta wonder, in light of the Posey episode ...
… if catchers across the board aren’t wondering about their mortality, so to speak, on plays at the plate. We may see more of this as the season progresses.
The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.
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