Farmers Only: First day of school for the rookie ballers
It's the first day of the season for the brand new Redlegs in our two rookie ball affiliates! Let's look at where these new faces have landed and what we can expect from our teams.
First of all, let's look at the changes in Dayton. It's been an exciting week for the Dragons, as they added two new faces from extended spring training to their already stacked roster, Kyle Lotzkar and Ronald Torreyes. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave a whole lot of firepower for the rookie ballers.
Billings actually doesn't look too shabby. Their pitching staff will likely be anchored by lefty Ismael Guillon and righty Wes Mugarian. Guillon had a 3.32 ERA in the AZL last year, with a staggering 73 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched with only 23 walks. Mugarian was the Reds' 5th round pick out of high school last season, and was signed for a little over slot value. Arms from this year that we'll see in Billings are 4th rounder Kyle McMyne and local product Dan Jensen.
The Mustangs' offense will likely feature outfield duo Juan Silva and Kyle Waldrop. Waldrop was the 12th round pick from last year that signed for $500K, and projects as a corner outfielder with a big bat. There will be some other really nice pieces in this infield to watch, with guys like Junior Arias, Devin Lohman, Nick O'Shea, and Sean Buckley.
The AZL team won't be as star-studded, but there's still a lot here to follow on the pitching end. They're led by this year's 3rd rounder Tony Cingrani, and last year's 6th round pick Drew Cisco (who signed for $975K), who will be making his pro debut. Draftees from last year worth keeping an eye on are guys like Jose Amezcua (7th round), and Lucas O'Rear (11th round), who's coming off of an injury suffered in basketball season. Oh yeah, and don't forget about Joel Bender, who's a local kid out of Oak Hills HS who was signed away from a Louisville commitment out of the 27th round. Guys from this year's draft on the AZL team will be pitchers Justice French and Carlos Gonzalez (no relation), and infielder Juan Perez. The rest of the roster is filled out with Dominican and Venezuelan league players, but guys like righty Abel De Los Santos could be worth following (9-1, 1.85 ERA in DSL last year).
Okay, let's see how they did in Monday's games.
- Louisville lost 7-4 to Pawtucket. Zack Cozart was 2-for-5 out of the leadoff spot and continues to be a better option at SS than the scrubs the Reds are running out there. Todd Frazier and Danny Dorn both homered for the Bats, but the bullpen didn't help causes. Tom Cochran gave up 3 runs in 5 innings with 7 strikeouts and no walks, but Chad Reineke gave up 4 runs in relief. Up next: Homer Bailey takes on the PawSox on rehab at 7:05. Aroldis Chapman may also make an appearance in this one.
- Carolina is on their all-star break. The Southern League All-Star game is tonight, with Brad Boxberger the only Mudcat meriting selection.
- Bakersfield is too. The Carolina/California All-Star game is tonight, with two Blaze members making the cut for the Cal team. Yasmani Grandal and Josh Fellhauer were the lucky two who were selected.
- Dayton is also on their break, and will also have an All-Star game tonight. Three Dragons made the cut this year, led by Josh Smith who should start for the Eastern team. Also appearing will be pitcher Daniel Corcino and 1B Dominic D'Anna.
- Billings lost their opener 9-4 to Great Falls. Wes Mugarian got the start and gave up 4 runs (only 1 ER) in 5 innings, with 7 strikeouts and no walks. El'Hajj Muhammad came in and pitched 2 1/3 shutout innings of relief. On the offensive side, Robert Maddox and Dayne Read had multi-hit games, and Drew Poulk hit his first homer of the season. Up next: Stalin Gerson takes on Great Falls at 9:05.
- The AZL Reds started their season with a 4-0 loss to the AZL Tribe. Luca Panerati gave up 3 runs (2 ER) in 6 innings pitched on a rehab assignment. The A-Reds only gathered up 2 hits on offense, thanks to Carlos Sanchez and Jon Matthews. Up next: AZL Mariners at 10:00.
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Went to the Bats game yesterday
Reineke pitched poorly, but was REALLY let down by the defense. The Bats made 3 errors in the 8th. END botched a completely routine DP ball. Then Cozart dropped a scoop throw from Valaika on another DP ball. Then Mesoraco made a bad throw to END trying to get a runner at 3B. On top, Dorn overthrew a cutoff man an inning before, which may have allowed another run to score. It was bad D for the bats.
Dorn has homered every time I’ve gone to a Bats game. Cochran managed 7 Ks in 5 innings, which is impressive because his stuff is terrible. The Pawtucket lineup is also pretty bad, though.
by kcgard2 on Jun 21, 2011 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Oh, the Red Sox scored 3 runs in that 8th
on the merits of…not a single hit. And it would have been significantly worse if the umpires had not given two very questionable calls in favor of the Bats.
Louisville’s lineup is killer. But the pitching is mediocre to downright bad. They’re a chip off the big club’s block (minus the defense).
Panerati
Who was the other Italian in the Reds org? Is he still around?
by Brian B on Jun 21, 2011 9:02 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Panerati's going nowhere fast, fat chance he will.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Dan Serafini!
Singer: So did you know you can bring a gun in here now?
'Mache: I BROUGHT TWO! **flexes**
Matteo Pizziconi
And I don’t believe so
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
by BK on Jun 21, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Reds SS this year are hitting .226/.272/.264.
They have 10 extra base hits and have committed 15 errors.
Zack Cozart is hitting .318/.361/.496. He has 32 XBH and has 8 errors.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Reds SS WAR totals thus far
Paul Janish— 0.0 bWAR (-.7 offense +.7 defense) -.2 fWAR
Edgar Renteria— -.4 bWAR, -.4 fWAR
I don’t care if he is making 2ish million. If Walt is serious about this team competing, he needs to rid the team of sub-replacement players. The fact that he has such an attractive option on the 40 man, just waiting in AAA makes it such a profoundly easy decision.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Cozart has 0.0 WAR at the big league level.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
better than Renteria!
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
by nycredsfan on Jun 21, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
exactly
its called a sunk cost. as of today there’s nothing you can do about it other than make the best of a bad situation and cut ties with him and improve the team in the process. someone will pick him up and cut 400K off of it.
We could still option Janish to Louisville and keep Renteria around as a backup
I don’t think Edgar is as bad as he’s shown.
if that were the scenario then Dusty would probably name Rent the starter
and then he will be as bad as he’s shown, since he will be getting more playing time than he should.
I think we both know those numbers won't translate
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Well one is in the Majors and the other is in AAA
What’s to debate?
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
That's true.
But setting the bar at 130 PAs (so Edgar qualifies),
Janish is the 5th worst and Edgar is the 10th worst hitter in the NL right now. That’s a pretty low bar for Mr. Cozart to get over.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
SSS!
(just kidding, I want Coz up ASAP)
how was 10 cent wings?
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
I guess the 5-3 final score didn't really tell the whole story
but needless to say, I’m not upset I missed the game to work. 10 cent wings, pitchers, creds, and vole, however, I am upset about missing.
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
You'll get 3 of the 4 next time!
Sorry I’ll have to miss it. We’ll set something up in July.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
all the best players never played in AAA!
Tell me one successful player who spent a serious amount of time in AAA!
Nothing succeeds like failure.
by Yossarian22 on Jun 21, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
It'd be much easier to find good players who spent a lot of time in AA
Miguel Cabrera comes to mind…
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I miss him
I wish he could get on base again, so we could trade for him and put him in LF.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 21, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't give up anything for him now
But I would if he were to start OBPing around .380 again.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jun 21, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And regardless, I'm tired of this argument
No one is saying that every player who performs well in AAA is going to be a good MLB player.
But to just assume that every AAA player is going to suck in the bigs is just ridiculous. You don’t find out which category guys fall into until you give them a shot.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Is there a gray in your world? Besides the goofy lookin' dude that hangs around these parts?
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Jun 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"But to just assume that every AAA player is going to suck in the bigs is just ridiculous." is the black
You saying that Zack Cozart will definitely be better that Janish or Renteria is the white.
Would he be? Maybe. We don’t know. Should we find out? Absolutely. We agree there.
The problem is I heard all last year that if he was just given the chance Paul Janish would be an immediate and stark upgrade over Orlando Cabrera. Guess what? He wasn’t and he won’t be.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Actually, when he played last year, he was
And he would be this year too. OCab has been only a marginally better hitter than Janish this year, and he’s been a terrible 2B.
I would’ve taken Janish over OCab last year, and I’d take him over OCab at SS this year.
So we were all right, Janish is a stark upgrade over Cabrera. They both suck really bad.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
weak sauce and you know it
Last year OCab was a 0.7 WAR player. This year as his heralded replacement Janish has been a 0.0 WAR player.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Not fair to compare them yet
OCab compiled that WAR over a whole season. If Janish played out the rest of the year, I’m guessing he’d get close to 1 WAR too.
So, yeah, comparable, but that’s only if you believe OCab is still an above average SS (a big chunk of that .7 WAR was based on defensive value), which I clearly don’t believe. Neither do 30 MLB teams who refused to give him a SS job.
Point being, there was literally nothing lost by giving Janish the chance over OCab. He has been just as valuable, if not more, than OCab over the last year and a half.
There would be literally nothing lost by giving Cozart the chance over Janish. (well, we’d lose Renteria, but I don’t consider that a loss)
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
How is Janish going to get to 1 WAR?
Dude can’t hit, and now he can’t seem to field either. Damned near everyone here missed the boat on Janish but I’m supposed to buy into Cozart when told by the same people that he’s great?
Put it this way – Let’s say a psychic told you that you would come into some money soon and you got mugged the next day. How much faith would you put in said psychic?
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I don't think he'll continue to be quite this bad offensively, so that'll get the numbers up
and he is still above average defensively, so he’ll continue to accrue value the more innings he gets at SS.
Plus, WAR gives credit just for being on the field. So assuming he keeps accruing defensive value, and is less of an offensive liability at the end of the year, combined with playing time, he’ll be close to 1 WAR.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Now, having said that, I'm not defending him
I don’t know who these “same people” are that you are referring to.
As early as July last year I made the statement that I thought Cozart could outperform both Janish and OCab right now.
I’ve never wanted Janish as the first string guy, I just believed he’d be better or as good as OCab, and I believe he has been.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
He hasn't been. He just hasn't. Sorry.
I think you suffer from a terrible case of Backup QB Syndrome.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Well, since you put it that way
how can I counter such an airtight argument?
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
fine
This was you a year and a half ago.
Change the names out and you’re doing the same damned thing right now.
I also cannot fathom how you believe Paul Janish has been better as the Reds’ starting SS this year than Orlando Cabrera was as the Reds’ starting SS last year. The numbers don’t lie dude.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
What?
Did you even read that comment? I’m saying that I don’t like Janish, but I also don’t want Cabrera. Which has been my exact position every day for the last 1.5 years.
I want the best player on the field. For the last year, I believe that player has been Cozart. I don’t believe that player was ever Orlando Cabrera.
He OPSed .657 last year and played bad defense. I think, if he’s left to start the rest of the year, Janish would end up somewhere around .550-.580. With the defensive difference, that makes them about even players.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I am hearing you, and frustrated about waking up once again with out news of a roster move.
Janish’s peak was last year.
Rentarias peak was sometime when I was in college.
Cozart is peaking now!
When you have a lot of average players who are all having their peak season together, special things can happen, see Cincinnati, 1990.
by Eastwindquinn on Jun 21, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Sweet Glorious Lord In Heaven
It’s finally official, Yuengling is coming to Ohio.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
eh, wake me when Fat Tire comes to DC
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
by ChiDa on Jun 21, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
AMEN
Get some New Belgium stuff on the East Coast, that’ll be worth talking about.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
It'll be hitting DC, MD, VA later this year
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
Nice
We were in the Outer Banks a couple summers ago and it was there. Still hasn’t broken the NYC market yet, but it’s gotta happen eventually.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
Probably not enough people in the market to make it worth it
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
Yeah, I remember Gray mentioning that it was available down there
I have to pick some up in Indiana whenever I go back
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
it's strange how much Fat Tire is hated on in CO
it’s treated like a Coors. Ugh, people! Just because it’s a large brewery doesn’t mean it’s shit!
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
You're in the wrong part of CO
In Denver, the mountains, and north of Denver people love it.
Also, it’s a pretty small brewery, relatively speaking.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
funny, I'm in the mountains north of Denver
I think Boulderites just kind of don’t like things in general. But yeah, every bar you go to it seems like Coors, Bud, and Fat Tire are always on tap. It’s probably just backlash from that, but its inappropriate backlash all the same.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It could be because it's brewed in Fort Collins, and Boulderites hate FTC
Partly because CSU is there.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I think Fat Tire is mediocre and way over hyped.
However, New Belgium makes some incredible brews. Their “Lips of Faith” series in particular is worth seeking out.
Let a man come in and do the Popcorn.
by -ManBearPig on Jun 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't disagree with this
I like their 554 brew as well, maybe better than Fat Tire. May have to see if I can seek out their “lips of faith” brews
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
oooh, forgot 1554
1554 is good. So’s Samurai if you’re into that sort of thing.
All of the sudden, we have a nice little portfolio here.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
Is Samurai a New Belgium brew?
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
1554 is very, very good. Mothership Wit is also very good if you like wheat beers
Their winter ale, 2 Below, is also good, if you are into that sort of thing.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I've been conflating Fat Tire and New Belgium
synecdoche fail.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
Lips of Faith, Ranger, Mighty Arrow are all good.
The rest are a solid meh.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
Man, I'll have to try Ranger again
I remember it being pretty meh. But there seems to be some appreciation for it.
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
its good if you're looking for a decent IPA
I wouldn’t give it any awards or anything, but it does its job
Welcome to my butt
Circa right now.
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Jun 21, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I've been "working out", I got a trainer and everything
/RavenRiley’d
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
/Scott Dunn'd
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
remember when he made Fielder look stupid in back to back games?
The Reds were 8 games over in first place, Monie was the best player in baseball, and BP was OPSing .900.
Ah, the good ol’ days.
No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jun 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
kcgard should go to the game tonight
and give us another report!
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I thought I heard that Drew Cisco had to have Tommy John surgery?
Why are you working the permit's desk, and why was that child clubbing your nuggets? ~ Ron Swanson
You'd be wrong wr-wrong wrong wrong
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
by jch24 on Jun 21, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
It appears that he had TJS recently
Bart: "Dad, what's a Muppet?"
Homer: "Well, it's not quite a mop, not quite a puppet, but man... (laughs, then pauses) So, to answer you question, I don't know."
I was making a "Thong Song" joke
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
so here's where i make a Dru "Hill" Cisco reference!
No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jun 21, 2011 11:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You're correct
I completely forgot about that. The chances of him anchoring the AZL rotation are prettty slim this year, and now their pitching staff sucks. There’s your revised preview.
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
by BK on Jun 21, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
So what's the arbitrary bar for Janish?
Here’s the scenario: Coz may or may not get called up, Renteria may or may not get DFA’d, but the assumption is that Paul Janish is the Reds’ starting SS. What would he have to hit ROS for us to be happy with him playing there and hitting 8th? I’m all for giving Cozart a shot, but if Janish is the starter for the rest of the season, what would we settle for?
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
The quote I overheard last night from Rick Sweet
“Zach Cozart is the most ready for MLB player the Reds have in the minors right now.”
Either that means nobody is ready, or the Reds are dragging their feet.
Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
I can't imagine Walt is that stubborn that he won't just DFA Renteria
is he really THAT loyal to former players? What could possibly be the holdup?
Joey Votto on Colin Cowherd: "I don’t know who he is"
I've said it before,
I really think Walt would do it, but Dusty is asking for more time with “his guys”. (which is odd, because Dusty is on the record as really liking Cozart)
If I was a betting man, I’d guess that Walt has given Dusty a hard deadline, after which point Walt will make a move if things haven’t improved.
Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks
I saw we lock Janish and Edgard in the bullpen and hand them each a bat. Last one standing gets to stay in Cincinnati and back up Cozart
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
I'd rather see Cozart and Janish
and an event involving a rubber sheet and Crisco.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
perhaps a trade.
they may think it’s not worth bringing Cozart up for just a few days if a shorstop is coming in.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
though as obviously unlikely as it seems
I think Walt was probably kind of hoping one of Janish or Renteria went on a mini “hot” streak (like, say above a .700 OPS for a week or so) so that maybe he could trade one of them for something. I mean, the Reds aren’t the only team with shitty SS production.
That obviously hasn’t happened though.
No problem, fuckweasel! - jch24
by Kevin Mitchell is Batman on Jun 21, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
God i wish Rick Sweet was the manager of the reds.
by Eastwindquinn on Jun 21, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Dusty pushed me over the edge yesterday
anybody who is stupid enough to use Renteria, with two outs and the tying run at the plate just isn’t a major league manager.
Nothing succeeds like failure.
by Yossarian22 on Jun 21, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rick Sweet is the most MLB ready manager the Reds have in the minors
BRING THEM BOTH UP!
Nothing succeeds like failure.
by Yossarian22 on Jun 21, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
“Rick Sweet is the most MLB ready manager the Reds have in the minors”
by Eastwindquinn on Jun 21, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
yikes, could be seen as calling out his bosses in a way
love that he’ll stick up for his players though, Reds are lucky to have him.
he is plenty secure.
My guess is he works because he wants to.
when the bosses need calling out, you gotta call them out.
by Eastwindquinn on Jun 21, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
his quote was obviously not on the record
and like I said, I overheard it, so I may not have even gotten it right.
Follow on Twitter: @jluckhaupt. Buy The Wire-to-Wire Reds today!
me too
I’m going to go to a game at some point, I’ll do an eyewitness report when I do.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
There's really only one destination for El'Hajj
by Brendanukkah on Jun 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
southpaw? More of an eastpaw.
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Good luck getting through the airport with that name
"Wait, you think I'm being mean to the pretend orangutan?" -- battlekow
do you remember the UC pointguard
Jihad Muhammad?
"You said 'walks' twice."
"I like walks."
by Cy Schourek on Jun 21, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He pitched last year as well as about any 49th round pitcher I've seen
And yes, he has a sweet name
"Aroldis Chapman is a seven course meal followed by four hours of sex on the table with a nymphomaniac model heiress who owns her own brewery." - jch24
by BK on Jun 21, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

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