Brewers Series Preview

by JinAZ on May 30, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Stat-Colored Glasses

After a tough series with the Braves, the Reds return home to face off with the Brewers. They're now 5 games behind the Cardinals, dead-on even at .500, and need to right the ship. Thanks to Cueto's performance on Sunday, the Reds should have something that at least resembles a rested bullpen entering the series. The Brewers, on the other hand, are streaking the other way entering the series, having won seven of their last eight. Some quick hits on the matchup:

1. BPro's various win estimators (and, of course, the team's actual winning percentage) indicates that the Brewers should be a slight favorite in this matchup, all things being equal.

2. The Reds have gotten on base a bit more than the Brewers, while the Brew Crew have just a tad more power. After park adjustments, total team performances this season are close to even on offense. The Reds' baserunning prowess, however, amounts to the equivalent of almost a one win advantage thus far for the Reds.

3. The Brewers, as expected given what they did this offseason, have a clear advantage in their starting rotation. The Reds catch both major additions in this series in Greinke and Marcum. It doesn't help matters that 2/5 of the Reds' rotation is currently not with the team, of course. The Brewers' bullpen has also been a strength for the team, and probably have collectively thrown the ball a tad better than their Reds' counterparts.

4. Where the Reds should hold a meaningful advantage is with fielding. That's as was expected this preseason. And while it probably doesn't quite close the pitching gap, it's a big deal and helps a lot.

Probable Starters

I didn't realize how good of a start Chris Narveson has gotten off to. I don't know if he can keep that up, but his peripherals are massively better than I'd expected to see from him. Wood's peripherals also indicate that he's thrown better than his results dictate, but I will always worry about him pitching in GABP given his proclivity for fly balls.

The TBD is for Tuesday is reportedly Chad Reineke. I know he's got the 2.52 ERA in AAA and all, but he also only has a 5.2 k/9 and a 37.5% GB%. I'm not particularly optimistic. But with Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, and LeCure all apparently out of commission or otherwise unavailable (regardless of what LeCure has tweeted), I don't really have a better suggestion. Goodness, that pitching depth evaporated quickly...

Tough break in Reineke pulling Greinke as a season debut matchup, because his numbers scare the hell out of me. But baseball happens, so we'll see: maybe Greinke will continue to allow home runs on almost 20% of his fly balls! It is GABP, after all...

It's going to be a tough series. The Reds are beat up, haven't had a day off in two and a half weeks (with a lot of recent extra innings), and haven't won a series in almost two weeks. Taking two out of three will be a challenge, but would be huge for this team. I'll be cheering them on...

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Greinke vs. Reineke

Weird.

LTP is for Stubbs only!

by OGC Reds on May 30, 2011 2:42 PM EDT reply actions

I still try to type both of their names with an "ie"

I write at:
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by JinAZ on May 30, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

It would be even weirder if the Brewers played the Arizona and Zack Greinke faced Zach Kroenke

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 30, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

too bad Josh Roenicke's playing for the Las Vegas 51's

he’d fit right in

Buy RED: My Uncensored Life in Rock by Sammy Hagar, today

by obc2 on May 30, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Good thing Ron Roenicke is managing the Brewers, though

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 30, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

"I" before "E" except after....ahhh, forget it.

Let's not kid ourselves. It's really, really, bad.

by Cy Schourek on May 30, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

so it's officially Reineke?

Who’s the other TBA?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

I haven't heard anything official.

This is just what they said on the espn broadcast last night. I’m assuming it’s correct, given that everyone else is hurt!!
-j

I write at:
RotoGraphs | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 30, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder whom they will send out to make room for Reineke.

by Don, the Rebel without a Blog on May 30, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Cochran or Horst, probably?

I write at:
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by JinAZ on May 30, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Cochran hopefully

I like Horst up

LTP is for Stubbs only!

by OGC Reds on May 30, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

don't they need room on the 40-man?

or is there a spot, I’m pretty lost on all that after this last week of transactions

by pack_fan on May 30, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they'll need to clear a spot.

But Philippe Valiquette could probably be put on the 60 day DL.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what I've heard they're going to do

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by chazzilla on May 30, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

They could move someone to the 60-day DL.

Or expose someone like Cochran to waivers.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think they'll expose Cochran to waivers now, simply because they will still probably need him

But eventually they will. He wouldn’t be a loss, and I highly doubt anyone would put him on their 40 man anyway.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

so freaking weird looking at Greinke's numbers

incredible k/bb ratio. decent gb %. Hopefully the Reds can get some homers off him

by cokane on May 30, 2011 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

This is a really good article from RotoHardball looking into Greinke's struggles

LINK

On the surface he should be dominant, but there are definitely some trouble signs. Most notably, his FB is about 1.5 mph slower than normal and his changeup is actually faster than normal. Plus, his LD rate is super high. All indicates he really isn’t fooling so many hitters.

Also, 4 of his 5 starts have come against bottom 1/3 offenses in all of baseball (WAS, PIT, SDP, ATL)

The Reds will be the first very good offense he’s faced, and only his second start away from Miller.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

LET'S FUCK HIM UP!

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by chazzilla on May 30, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You have to remember that Greinke didn't really have a spring training

Watching his starts, his stuff is more than fine, regardless of the fact that he’s “only” touching 95 now. The article is right about his curveball command; he’s been giving up homers on hung curveballs with alarming regularity. Like I said, no spring training. I strongly suspect he will be more than fine. Then again, I am a Brewers fan.

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 30, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

But he's not really touching 95. He's hit that once or twice all season

Also, he had time in extended ST and 3 rehab starts. By now he should be firing on all cylinders.

For the record, I think he’ll probably be fine too. The point is though, that right now we can’t just claim “bad luck” as the answer to all of his problems.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what "touching" means

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 30, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, sure. But the overall point is that his velocity is decidedly down.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

And my point is that, even if he for some reason never recovers his previous velocity...

His current velocity is more than enough.

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on May 30, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

If he's posting 12+ k/9, he's clearly doing something right.

But I’d be happy to see him get crushed. :)

I write at:
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by JinAZ on May 30, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

the lineup

Heisey cf, Phillips 2b, Votto 1b, Rolen 3b, Bruce rf, Gomes lf, Hanigan c, Janish ss, Wood p

It’s a lefty on the mound, so I don’t mind Gomes getting the start.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 3:31 PM EDT reply actions

more details from the Fayplacement

Haven’t talked with Dusty Baker as yet, but Stubbs probably is getting a day off after starting each game on the road trip. Stubbs hit .189 on the trip (10-for-53). Also, Stubbs is hitting .167 (1-for-6) against tonight’s Brewers starter, Chris Narveson. Chris Heisey, playing center tonight, is 0-for-5 against Narveson.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Jamie Ramsey

has a photo of the lineup card. Why are some names in red?

He also has a quote from Rick Sweet about Chapman: "He was a little bit arm-weary. It’s hot, and it’s the first hot weather we’ve had this year."

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

LH batters are in red

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Having pointed that out, Wood is a RH batter.

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

must be

left-handed batters and left-handed pitchers are in red.

I think that’s new. Or relatively new, anyway.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

more on Chapman

he hit 102 mph.

Olney says Cuban defectors have the hardest time fitting in with teammates.

Many major league evaluators believe that the players who have the greatest cultural adjustments to playing Major League Baseball are not players from Japan, like Daisuke Matsuzaka, or from Korea, like Shin-Soo Choo. Rather, through the years, they have noticed that players who defect from Cuba tend to struggle within clubhouses, largely because they don’t exhibit trust — they fear an ulterior motive for routine decisions or interactions.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on May 30, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Stereotyping, probably

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

You don't trust anything any journalist says, ever, do you?

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't criticize stories that are sensible.

I can’t see any evidence at all that could support this story.
It’s not about the reporter, but the story itself.

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

He also uses the same old lame crutch ...

… the unnamed “many … evaluators …” no quotes from real people.
This is typical lame-ass stuff …

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

You don't find it at all sensible that a player from a communist country

in which the players on the national team are treated like prisoners and slave labor might have a hard time trusting others in their organization more than those from Japan?

You’re right. That’s unpossible!

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

The reporter is another schlock hack who can't quote anybody

I never met a Cuban defector. I have no idea about this. Don’t coil up in the fuckin’ corner about me. Evaluate the source of some of the endless drivel that you absorb every day and pretend is news.

When was the last time any of these people actually quoted a real source by name? Huh? They run this shit on the fly and pretend it’s news. People who believe it are a dime a dozen. You in that group? Or do you have a reason to question things that are pawned off as fact?

Separating me from the Gen X generation, perhaps … when “unnamed sources” is all they ever use, I get suspicious.

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you know who Buster Olney is?

He often breaks stories, has scoops on trades and signings before everyone else, and is often right.

He’s clearly connected and trusted by people who know these things. Furthermore, he’s not claiming any sort of absolute, divine truth, or even fact, here. He’s just remarking on things scouts and others have told him. No reason to get riled up about it.

Finally, I’m growing tired of the “back in my day” routine. Back in your day sports reporters didn’t bother to talk to scouts or GMs at all. They reported who had RBI from last night’s game and then went and got drunk on the newspaper’s dime.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

So...getting drunk on the newspaper's dime is a bad thing?

I need to rethink my life plan.

Follow me on Twitter!
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by chazzilla on May 30, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You work for a newspaper?

You REALLY need to rethink your life plan.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 30, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey hey.

Titties Weekly is a respected newspaper/magazine/porno

Follow me on Twitter!
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by chazzilla on May 30, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

LIAR!!

Titties Weekly went tits up years ago!

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 30, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I was at a house party today and asked if I could use his wireless to sent an e-mail from my phone

“Hey, Jim, what’s your wireless’ name?”
“It’s, uhhh, Tig Ole Bitties.”

Let's not kid ourselves. It's really, really, bad.

by Cy Schourek on May 30, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

How do you know what sports reporters did in my day?

If you think you know how I managed my career, I can say you are

a. wrong
b. full of shit
c. and probably need to say you are sorry you wrote part of that about me.

The baby under the basket is a very powerful talisman, only to be used in times of great distress.

by johnu1 on May 30, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I never said anything about you

But you are constantly decrying the current state of journalism, to which I say bullshit.

We have so much more access to players, GMs, managers, scouts, etc. than ever before. Just because every single one isn’t always quoted doesn’t mean it’s bad journalism. My point was that it was easy to quote every source 30 years ago because the only source sportswriters cared about was what the manager said after the game.

Also, I regularly hear investigative stories that quote or use info from anonymous sources. NPR is a prime example. If you insist that doing that is lazy, bad journalism, I think you’ll find yourself in a tiny minority.

Billy Hamilton: Snax
Devin Mesoraco: Snacks

by nycredsfan on May 30, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

i think johnu1 is the new HLM!

it seems he has a target on every post he makes.

Buy RED: My Uncensored Life in Rock by Sammy Hagar, today

by obc2 on May 30, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

i do know who buster olney is

he’s the world’s biggest yankees cheerleader.

i personally have no respect for him.

Operation: 'tHan's Awesome Plan is living up to its name.

by 'tHan on May 30, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

He's terrible as an analyst

But for softer subjects like clubhouse chemistry, I don’t think he’s a bad source – when it doesn’t involve the Yankees.

by ken on May 31, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I like him as a news acquisition source

He’s very well connected, so he gets good insight into what clubs are thinking in terms of current gossip, trades, etc. When he starts injecting his own analysis, however, I just stop reading.
-j

I write at:
RotoGraphs | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 31, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions